[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Big day for me today, too: Miami Picks: 1) Back Nicolas Almagro to beat Richard Gasquet. 2,17 @ pinnacle (6/10) The Spaniard should be favourite here, playing great tennis so far in Miami. Powerful shots from the baseline, little errors, goos serve, very consistent. Gasquet has improved here, too, but I think he has no real weapons against Almagro, since the court is relatively slow and both in baseline battle and in serve/return, Almagro should be superior. H2H is 3:1 in favor of Almagro, and Almagro only lost on grass against Gasquet. 2) Back Albert Ramos to beat Jürgen Melzer. 1,99 @ pinnacle (5/10). I fancy Ramos here, The spaniard is a grinder, he will sit back and wait for Melzers mistakes. And these will come. Melzer could have gone out against Kamke, and he would have, if Kamke had performed just a little better. Melzer lacks the consistent play, has deficits in mind, and Ramos will benefit from these things. He has beaten an in-form-Blake, and I rate Melzer beneath. 3) Back Tomas Berdych (-3,5 games) to beat Sam Querrey. 2,10 @ marathonbet (5/10). Never thought to back Berdych here, never thought Berdych could win yesterday when the score was 2-6 3-5, but also never thought Querrey would still be in the tournament these days. I was really looking forward to some great odds for backing Falla against Querrey, but things had changed due to a second serve ace...Well, here is Berdych to back. Beneath two inconsistent players that make a lot of errors, even some cruel ones on their own and have problems on their serves, Berdych is the better one, especially when it comes to baseline rallies. Berdychs play in the third set improved a bit yesterday, and hopefully this continues. Then the handicap should be covered. 4) Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-2,5 games) to beat Marin Cilic. 1,87 @ pinnacle (4/10) Time to go out for Cilic here. Tsonga has played quite well against Nieminen, and this should enough to outplay Cilic as well. The Croat has his serve, but not more. When it comes to rallies - and so it will be - Tsonga is far superior. He also has decent returns and is able to break Cilic a few times. Because of the slow conditions in Miami, this is really worth a bet. 5) Back Janko Tipsarevic to beat Gilles Simon. 2,26 @ pinnacle (3/10) 6) Janko Tipsarevic vs. Gilles Simon over 22,5 games. 1,91 @ pinnacle (3/10) Tipsarevic is improving here from game to game and is getting his shape back. Sela was a push-over, and that was exactly the thing Tipsarevic needed here. Against Anderson, he struggled, but Anderson played some decent stuff the first sets. But Tipsarevic fought back, came into the rhythm and bageled Anderson in the final set. Simon isn´t really a player that hurts his opponents by pushing him away. His qualities are fighting, grinding, and coming back, he has no hard shots. This will suit Tipsa here since he will be able to find his own shots. Imagine a three-setter here, that can go this way or that way. 7) Back Tommy Haas (+1,5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic. 4,3 @ pinnacle (2/10) 8) Tommy Haas vs. Novak Djokovic over 18,5 games. 1,81 @ pinnacle (3/10) Am I crazy? I don´t know :p If you had to choose any player out of the top four to cause some trouble to world´s No. 1, I would fancy Haas. He is 35, but fantastic. Technically, he is the best in the world, and he would have won some majors, if he were not so injury-prone. He is definitely to old to catch up on that, but what he can do, is perhaps to win a masters, when conditions are great for him. I just read an interview, in which he is sure that he can beat the top four over 2 sets, but not over 3 at majors. But everything has to be perfect for him, and he won´t get a lot of chances more. I´m sure he will play his best tennis today. If he beats Nole, the tournament is open for him. This could be his game of the year. He is mentally so strong, perhaps he believes in himself. Let´s see. The line is too low in my eyes, and perhaps Tommy managed to get a set. 9) Back Kirsten Flipkens to beat Agnieska Radwanska. 4,76 @ pinnacle (3/10) 10) Back Kirsten Flipkens (+1,5 setd) to beat Agnieska Radwanska. 2,32 @ pinnacle (4/10) These odds seem way to high. Flipkens is playing some great stuff these days, beating Kvitova and bageling her in the first set, getting a set against Azarenka. The conditions in Miami seem to suit her very well. Radwanska is playing the kind of grinder tennis as she is always playing, but perhaps not with the last piece of class as she used to. She needed three sets against Rymarikova, Stevens, Cirstea, and lost to Kirilenko. I totally fancy an in-form-Flipkens to cause some trouble, too. 11) Back Na Li to beat Serena Williams. 3,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) 12) Back Na Li (+1,5 sets) to beat Serena Williams. 2,14 @ pinnacle (3/10) This is for sure kinds gambling. Serena struggled against Cibulkova yesterday, perhaps the court is a bit too slow for her. As far as Li is concerned, I saw her play yesterday against Muguruza. It was either great tennis by Li or bull**** play. Great up to 5-1, bull**** from 5-1 to 5-6. Great in the ti break up to 6-1, bull**** fron 6-1 to 6-6. The second set was far more consistent. You have to consider that this is the first tournament for Li after her brilliant Australian Open performance. If she plays her very best, she can win that game, I am sure. If she will do, only God knows. 13) Back Mattek-Sands/Mirza to beat Errani/Vinci. 3,45 @ marathonbet (4/10). Way to high. I can definitely see Errani/Vinci lose here, since Mattek-Sands and Mirza are a great double and in good shape. Mattek-Sands/Mirza have won Dubai doubles, lost to Raymond/Stosur at Indian Wells in match tie-break. Errani/Vinci had to play the match ti-break here against Date Krumm/Dellacqua (11-9) and against Babos/Minella (10-4). In Indian Wells they lost to Hsieh/Pennetta quite clear. I may not say this is pretty even, but Errani/Vinci are definitely not so big favorites, especially when it comes to match ti break, it is open play. Some challenger picks, all @ bet365 and with (2/10) stake: A little try-out after yesterdays losses at challenger level. A) Back Eduardo Struvay to beat Carlos Salamanca. 3,25 - Pereira Challenger. Struvay is the by far better and more talented tennis player here, Salamanca just profits from his serve, but when it comes to baseline rallys, it´s up to Struvay. Struvay had to fight with injuries, that´s why he is quoted this way. B) Back Alejandro Gonzalez to beat Teimuraz Gabashvili. 1,83 - Pereira Challenger. Clay courter vs. hard courter. Gonzalez has beaten Gabashvili on clay last automn 7-6 7-6. Since then, Gonzalez form improved, Gabashvili´s didn´t. C) Facundo Bagnis vs. Felipe Escobar under 17,5 games. 2,00 - Pereira Challenger. Bagnis is the better player, and in great shape. Just won Santiago challenger. Although I don´t like his style of play and don´t rate him that high, Escobar should be a push-over, ranked 961, losing the last games 0-2 sets on ITF level. D) Back Marcelo Demoliner to beat Peter Gojowckzk. 2,10 - San Luis Potosi Challenger. Pretty even, when the class of the players is concerned. But this is the first clay court match for the German since last June. He hits the ball hard and his style of play doesn´t fit that well on clay court. Demoliner is clay courter, and had some fine results the last time, beating solid players like Souza or Tringelliti. :hope:hope:hope

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Also a few Miami picks for me today. Thanks Atko, CzechPunter and homunculus for your picks. Back Nicolas Almagro (-4,5 games) to beat David Goffin. 1,95 @ pinnacle (6/10) Almagro is playing very well these days, smashed Guido Pella in 48 minutes and played some decent stuff. He is for sure the better and more experienced player than the young Goffin. Goffin has beaten Kohlschreiber, but that doesn´t count too much since Kohli is often simply crap and enjoys losing to weaker opponents at some times. The conditions suit to Almagro, he should get little problems on his serve and will get a lot of opportunities to break Goffin. 6-4 6-3 and the thing is done. Back Alejandro Falla to beat Tomas Berdych. 10,75 @ pinnacle (1/10) Back Alejandro Falla (+1,5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych. 3,84 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Alejandro Falla (+5,5 games) to beat Tomas Berdych. 1,98 @ pinnacle (3/10) In normal conditions Berdych wins, but perhaps not this time. He almost lost to Ginemo-Traver, had problems with his serve and the baseline shots. The slow conditions don´t seem to suit him, but you have to say, Ginemo-Traver played some decent stuff, too. Falla has beaten Verdasco, I didn´t see that game, but he seemed to be lucky in the second set. With his variable tennis and fighting abilities, Falla should give Berdych a nut to break. Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. 3,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) I´m simply not impressed by Tsonga´s performances these days. Partly, he was poor at Indian Wells, although he reached the quarters, where he won just 4 games against Djokovic. Even the victories against Fish and Raonic didn´t impress me, that was defintely not his best tennis. The conditions in Miami are slower than Indian Wells, and this might suit Nieminen here, who is playing some decent stuff, far more consistant than Tsonga. Nieminen is able to confuse Tsonga and force into errors. H2H is 3-3. These odds are pretty high, although Tsonga is the favorite. Back Milos Raonic (-2,5 games) to beat Sam Querrey. 1,94 @ pinnacle (5/10) To make it short, I totally agree with Atko here. Back Garbine Muguraza Blanco to beat Li Na. 5,80 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Garbine Muguraza Blanco (+1,5 sets) to beat Li Na. 2,67 @ pinnacle (3/10) Young Spaniard Muguraza is playing really decent tennis. She improved a lot the last month, playing better and better even on hard court. In Indian wells she managed to get to the round of last 16, where she lost to Kerber in two tight sets. In Miami she struggled against Siniakova, but then won impressivly against Pavlychenkova and Wozniacki in straight sets. Li Na is playing her first tournament since Australian Open, and Muguraza will be her first real opponent. Bertens and out-of-shape-Lepchenko clearly weren´t. Pershaps she needs some time to get in this match. The odds seem to high, although the most probable result is 2-0 for Li Na. Back Sorana Cirstea to beat Jelena Jankovic. 2,04 @ marathonbet (5/10) Both players love the faster surfaces, but Jankovic even more. Both players had decent results yesterday, Jankovic beating Petrova (where she led 6-2 in H2H and I for quite a long time considered backing her, but unfortunately, I didn´t), Cirstea winning impressively against Kerber. Cirstea should be favorite here in my eyes. I backed her yesterday, and I will back her today against an opponent, that is in total a lot weaker than Kerber. Back Alize Cornet to beat Roberta Vinci. 4,15 @ pinnacle (3/10) Alize Cornet vs. Roberta Vinci over 19,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (4/10) Okay, Vinci is the better player, especially on hard court, but 4,15 against Cornet, who is quite good in shape? Bit too high in my eyes. Both players had three-setters yesterday, and even Vinci had to fight hard against Suarez Navarro, a game that she could have lost, too. Vinci is also playing doubles with Errani here, so is had to play a lot games the last days, and focus is perhaps on the doubles, where she can win with Errani. Time to go out for Vinci? Cornet is no push-over, the line is too low. Go doggies go! :nana

Cruel day, not so much because of a loss, but due to bad luck... Almagro d. Goffin 6-3 6-4 Berdych d. Falla 2-6 7-6 6-4 Tsonga d. Nieminen 6-3 6-3 Raonic vs Querrey w.o. Li d. Muguruza 7-6 6-2 Jankovic d. Cirstea 6-0 6-4 Vinci d. Cornet 2-6 6-4 6-4 Errani d. Ivanovic 1-6 6-4 6-2 Lama d. Pinet 6-1 6-1 Amritraj d. Mina 7-6 7-5 -1,32 in a day, that should have end with a big big plus. :spank The only real bad pick was backing Cirstea. Muguruza had a decent chance of winning a set, Li had her period of conceding, but unfortunately it was between 5-1 and 5-6 in first set. Falla had match balls, Berdych´s second serve ace kept him in that match. Cornet led 3-0 in the third... Errani had much more to fight than I thought, but winning clearly in the third. The two challenger picks failed. Mina at least had the chance of winning that match, leading 5-2 in the second set, two breaks in front, than getting injured. Hope the luck is back again today.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 These are really the minutes to get weird. Angry of everything, when the luck is all against you... Gianni Mina leading 5:2 in second set with double break, then getting injured, losing 5:7. Falla 5:3 in front, matchball, Berdych with second serve ace on the line, losing the 6:7, having one more match ball in tie break. Cornet 3:0 in front in third set, losing 4:6. :sad

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Also a few Miami picks for me today. Thanks Atko, CzechPunter and homunculus for your picks. Back Nicolas Almagro (-4,5 games) to beat David Goffin. 1,95 @ pinnacle (6/10) Almagro is playing very well these days, smashed Guido Pella in 48 minutes and played some decent stuff. He is for sure the better and more experienced player than the young Goffin. Goffin has beaten Kohlschreiber, but that doesn´t count too much since Kohli is often simply crap and enjoys losing to weaker opponents at some times. The conditions suit to Almagro, he should get little problems on his serve and will get a lot of opportunities to break Goffin. 6-4 6-3 and the thing is done. Back Alejandro Falla to beat Tomas Berdych. 10,75 @ pinnacle (1/10) Back Alejandro Falla (+1,5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych. 3,84 @ pinnacle (2/10) Back Alejandro Falla (+5,5 games) to beat Tomas Berdych. 1,98 @ pinnacle (3/10) In normal conditions Berdych wins, but perhaps not this time. He almost lost to Ginemo-Traver, had problems with his serve and the baseline shots. The slow conditions don´t seem to suit him, but you have to say, Ginemo-Traver played some decent stuff, too. Falla has beaten Verdasco, I didn´t see that game, but he seemed to be lucky in the second set. With his variable tennis and fighting abilities, Falla should give Berdych a nut to break. Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. 3,88 @ pinnacle (3/10) I´m simply not impressed by Tsonga´s performances these days. Partly, he was poor at Indian Wells, although he reached the quarters, where he won just 4 games against Djokovic. Even the victories against Fish and Raonic didn´t impress me, that was defintely not his best tennis. The conditions in Miami are slower than Indian Wells, and this might suit Nieminen here, who is playing some decent stuff, far more consistant than Tsonga. Nieminen is able to confuse Tsonga and force into errors. H2H is 3-3. These odds are pretty high, although Tsonga is the favorite. Back Milos Raonic (-2,5 games) to beat Sam Querrey. 1,94 @ pinnacle (5/10) To make it short, I totally agree with Atko here. Back Garbine Muguraza Blanco to beat Li Na. 5,80 @ marathonbet (2/10) Back Garbine Muguraza Blanco (+1,5 sets) to beat Li Na. 2,67 @ pinnacle (3/10) Young Spaniard Muguraza is playing really decent tennis. She improved a lot the last month, playing better and better even on hard court. In Indian wells she managed to get to the round of last 16, where she lost to Kerber in two tight sets. In Miami she struggled against Siniakova, but then won impressivly against Pavlychenkova and Wozniacki in straight sets. Li Na is playing her first tournament since Australian Open, and Muguraza will be her first real opponent. Bertens and out-of-shape-Lepchenko clearly weren´t. Pershaps she needs some time to get in this match. The odds seem to high, although the most probable result is 2-0 for Li Na. Back Sorana Cirstea to beat Jelena Jankovic. 2,04 @ marathonbet (5/10) Both players love the faster surfaces, but Jankovic even more. Both players had decent results yesterday, Jankovic beating Petrova (where she led 6-2 in H2H and I for quite a long time considered backing her, but unfortunately, I didn´t), Cirstea winning impressively against Kerber. Cirstea should be favorite here in my eyes. I backed her yesterday, and I will back her today against an opponent, that is in total a lot weaker than Kerber. Back Alize Cornet to beat Roberta Vinci. 4,15 @ pinnacle (3/10) Alize Cornet vs. Roberta Vinci over 19,5 games. 1,94 @ pinnacle (4/10) Okay, Vinci is the better player, especially on hard court, but 4,15 against Cornet, who is quite good in shape? Bit too high in my eyes. Both players had three-setters yesterday, and even Vinci had to fight hard against Suarez Navarro, a game that she could have lost, too. Vinci is also playing doubles with Errani here, so is had to play a lot games the last days, and focus is perhaps on the doubles, where she can win with Errani. Time to go out for Vinci? Cornet is no push-over, the line is too low. Go doggies go! :nana

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Gianni Mina to beat Prakrash Amritraj. 4,10 @ marathonbet (5/10) Took another dog bet from Le Gosier Challenger. Previously I said, Le Gosier is in Europe as an pro-Pinet argument. Sorry, that isn´t true. I just read, the tournament is in France. Well, that´s right, but Le Gosier is in Guadeloupe, the French oversea-department. But that´s how I get to this pick. Prakrash Amritraj is an 29 year-old Indian player, ranked 436, but got his points mainly due to Chennai tournament in India. After he had reached round 2 three, beating the likes of Ward and Rufin, he struggled a lot, even lost to no-ranked Darian King in the last future tournament. Gianni Mina on the other side is born in Guadeloupe, 21 years old, and was once counted one of the major talents in the world, winning the under-18 Orange Bowl and getting to Roland Garros youth final. He even got a wild card for the man tournament, where he lost to Rafael Nadal himself in the first round 2-6 2-6 2-6. But the real outbreak never came, and things didn´t go well for Mina, so he is still playing future level. Although his favorite surface is clay, he always played well at Le Gosier challenger, supposingly because he just knows his home court. Last year he lost to Igor Kunitsyn in the second round 5-7 4-6. Perhaps the Indian is favorite, but not at these odds.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Back Aurelien Pinet to beat Gonzalo Lama. 7' date=00 @ bet365 (5/10). This is a qualification game of Le Gosier/FRA challenger. Aurelien Pinet is Frenchman, 30 years old, who never played pro level tennis, just a few future tournaments between 2000 and 2002. But in the last qualification round, Pinet has beaten Lucas Renard from Sweden, who is ranked 672. No special player, but someone who did beat the like of Fabrice Martin on hard court last year. So Renard should be able to play some tennis. Gonzalo Lama is a young player from Chile, 19 years old, ranked 568. He plays only on clay court and has already beaten someone like Pashanski in Santiago challenger. Last qualification round, he struggeled against young Tristan Mereut, 17 years old, who isn´t ranked at all. Lama needed three sets to beat him, 6-2 4-6 6-3. So, I don´t know any of these players, but odds around 7,00 seem crazy to me. Pinet can hardly be worse than Mereut, and even against Mereut did Lama struggle, Lama, who plays his first tournament on hard court and outside South America. Worth a shot in my eyes.

Back Aurelien Pinet to beat Gonzalo Lama. 7,00 @ bet365 (5/10). Odds have already dropped to 6,00. So react quickly if you want. Sorry, I can´t edit posts.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Aurelien Pinet to beat Gonzalo Lama. 7,00 @ bet365 (5/10). This is a qualification game of Le Gosier/FRA challenger. Aurelien Pinet is Frenchman, 30 years old, who never played pro level tennis, just a few future tournaments between 2000 and 2002. But in the last qualification round, Pinet has beaten Lucas Renard from Sweden, who is ranked 672. No special player, but someone who did beat the like of Fabrice Martin on hard court last year. So Renard should be able to play some tennis. Gonzalo Lama is a young player from Chile, 19 years old, ranked 568. He plays only on clay court and has already beaten someone like Pashanski in Santiago challenger. Last qualification round, he struggeled against young Tristan Mereut, 17 years old, who isn´t ranked at all. Lama needed three sets to beat him, 6-2 4-6 6-3. So, I don´t know any of these players, but odds around 7,00 seem crazy to me. Pinet can hardly be worse than Mereut, and even against Mereut did Lama struggle, Lama, who plays his first tournament on hard court and outside South America. Worth a shot in my eyes.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Back Novak Djokovic (-8 games) to beat Somdev Devvarman. 3' date=00 @ pinnacle (4/10) I can see another bagel from Nole here. Devvarman is a grinder, fast on his feet, fights for every single ball, but has no special shots oder something that can hurt Nole. And Nole plays the same kind of tennis, but of course a lot of times better. Should be 6-2 6-1 or something like that. Back Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Roberta Vinci. 2,37 @ pinnacle (5/10) I don´t get why Vinci is favorite here. Maybe Vinci is the better player on hard court, but the Miami surface is very slow and will suit Suarez Navarro. There is not so much difference between these players. Suarez Navarro is in quite a good shape, has beaten Hampton after she had almost lost, went into the final of Acapulco losing to Errani, and in Indian Wells lost to Sharapova, but played some good tennis (5-7 3-6). Vinci has beaten McHale in the first round here and needed three sets. In Indian Wells she lost to Arruabarrena, in Acapulco to Errani as well. Should be pretty even, so these odds seem to be value. Back Sorana Cirstea to beat Angelique Kerber. 3,97 @ pinnacle (2/10) Sorana Cirstea vs Angelique Kerber over 20,5 games. 1,96 @ marathonbet (4/10) In my eyes, this is worth a shot. Both players love the faster surfaces, but Kerber even more, she has a poor record on clay. Both play attacking tennis, and the court in Miami will suit nobody I think. Cirstea with quite a good results in last time, losing only to the likes of A. Radwanska in three sets, Errani, Wozniacki and Kirilenko. She is definitely no push over. Kerber on the other hand should be the better player, had a little down in Febuary losing to Vinci and Barthel, but came back at Indian Wells. In the first round she struggled against Schiavone, but won in three sets. Kerber is the favorite, but not with that odds. The over line seems quite to low for this match up. Back Sara Errani (-5,5 games) to beat Simona Halep. 1,97 @ pinnacle (5/10). To make it short: Errani is the better player, makes nearly no mistakes, the slow court suit her. The result against Hantuchova was impressive. Halep had to fight over three sets against Paszek, who was a bit out of shape. Errani is very consistent, much more than Halep. 6-3 6-3 should be possible. Back Kevin Anderson (-2,5 games) to beat Janko Tipsarevic. 2,05 @ marathonbet (4/10). I am not convinced that Tipsarevic is back, so I´m opposing him. Sela should have been a pushover and no strong opponent. Anderson is in good shape, losing at Indian Wells quarterfinals to Berdych. His game against Zeballos was clearer than the result might say, Anderson misses a lot of break points in second set. The only time these players met, Anderson won 6-3 7-5 in Atlanta. Anderson is the favorite in my eyes, and when he wins, I think he will cover this line. Back Albert Ramos to beat James Blake. 2,66 @ marathonbet (4/10) Grinder vs. pusher on a slow hard court. Should be pretty even. Both players with some decent results in last time, Blake winning against Harrison and out-of-shape-Benneteau here, losing to Tsonga at Indian Wells 6-7 4-6. Ramos has beaten out-of-shape-Monaco here, and the even more grinder Hajek, Zeballos at Indian Wells, where he lost to Cilic. Ramos´ spin balls could cause trouble against Blakes one-handed backhand. Odds too high in my eyes. Llodra/Paes vs. Dimitrov/Nielsen over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ marathonbet (5/10). This line seems to low for me. Here are playing two decent doubles with Llodra/Paes being favourites. If it comes to a match-ti-break, this match ti-break counts as one more single game. So with 6-4 4-6 X:X oder nearly every result that involves a 7, this line is covered. Back Fabio Fognini (+1,5 sets) to beat David Ferrer. 3,59 @ pinnacle (2/10). Ferrer is big favorite, no question. But Fognini is able to win sets even against the big boys, when he gets a run. In Acapulco he already won a set against Ferrer on clay court, and in Indian wells Fognini even forced Djokovic to play three sets. Because Ferrer is a bit struggling these days, I hope Fognini will get this game in three sets, too. I am also considering to back Malisse against Nishikori, Dolgopolov against Haas and Kamke against Melzer. Hope you can help me out there.

Djokovic d. Devvarman 6-2 6-4 Vinci d. Suarez Navarro 5-7 6-4 6-4 Cirstea d. Kerber 6-4 6-0 Errani d. Halep 6-1 6-0 Tipsarevic d. Anderson 4-6 7-6 6-0 Ramos d. Blake 6-4 2-6 7-5 Dimitrov/Nielsen d. Llodra/Paes 7-6 7-6 Ferrer d. Fognini 6-1 7-5 Little Plus at the end of the day (+3,23). I´m not really pleased, but it´s okay.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Sara Errani to beat Ana Ivanovic. 1,74 @ pinnacle (10/10) thanks for being so gracious to me. These odds are weird in my eyes, as errani should be the clear favorite here. She is not only in great shape (so seems to be Ivanovic), but she also has this grinder Play that hurts Ana so much on these quite slow conditions. This is to be about 1,4, not 1,74.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Novak Djokovic (-8 games) to beat Somdev Devvarman. 3,00 @ pinnacle (4/10) I can see another bagel from Nole here. Devvarman is a grinder, fast on his feet, fights for every single ball, but has no special shots oder something that can hurt Nole. And Nole plays the same kind of tennis, but of course a lot of times better. Should be 6-2 6-1 or something like that. Back Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Roberta Vinci. 2,37 @ pinnacle (5/10) I don´t get why Vinci is favorite here. Maybe Vinci is the better player on hard court, but the Miami surface is very slow and will suit Suarez Navarro. There is not so much difference between these players. Suarez Navarro is in quite a good shape, has beaten Hampton after she had almost lost, went into the final of Acapulco losing to Errani, and in Indian Wells lost to Sharapova, but played some good tennis (5-7 3-6). Vinci has beaten McHale in the first round here and needed three sets. In Indian Wells she lost to Arruabarrena, in Acapulco to Errani as well. Should be pretty even, so these odds seem to be value. Back Sorana Cirstea to beat Angelique Kerber. 3,97 @ pinnacle (2/10) Sorana Cirstea vs Angelique Kerber over 20,5 games. 1,96 @ marathonbet (4/10) In my eyes, this is worth a shot. Both players love the faster surfaces, but Kerber even more, she has a poor record on clay. Both play attacking tennis, and the court in Miami will suit nobody I think. Cirstea with quite a good results in last time, losing only to the likes of A. Radwanska in three sets, Errani, Wozniacki and Kirilenko. She is definitely no push over. Kerber on the other hand should be the better player, had a little down in Febuary losing to Vinci and Barthel, but came back at Indian Wells. In the first round she struggled against Schiavone, but won in three sets. Kerber is the favorite, but not with that odds. The over line seems quite to low for this match up. Back Sara Errani (-5,5 games) to beat Simona Halep. 1,97 @ pinnacle (5/10). To make it short: Errani is the better player, makes nearly no mistakes, the slow court suit her. The result against Hantuchova was impressive. Halep had to fight over three sets against Paszek, who was a bit out of shape. Errani is very consistent, much more than Halep. 6-3 6-3 should be possible. Back Kevin Anderson (-2,5 games) to beat Janko Tipsarevic. 2,05 @ marathonbet (4/10). I am not convinced that Tipsarevic is back, so I´m opposing him. Sela should have been a pushover and no strong opponent. Anderson is in good shape, losing at Indian Wells quarterfinals to Berdych. His game against Zeballos was clearer than the result might say, Anderson misses a lot of break points in second set. The only time these players met, Anderson won 6-3 7-5 in Atlanta. Anderson is the favorite in my eyes, and when he wins, I think he will cover this line. Back Albert Ramos to beat James Blake. 2,66 @ marathonbet (4/10) Grinder vs. pusher on a slow hard court. Should be pretty even. Both players with some decent results in last time, Blake winning against Harrison and out-of-shape-Benneteau here, losing to Tsonga at Indian Wells 6-7 4-6. Ramos has beaten out-of-shape-Monaco here, and the even more grinder Hajek, Zeballos at Indian Wells, where he lost to Cilic. Ramos´ spin balls could cause trouble against Blakes one-handed backhand. Odds too high in my eyes. Llodra/Paes vs. Dimitrov/Nielsen over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ marathonbet (5/10). This line seems to low for me. Here are playing two decent doubles with Llodra/Paes being favourites. If it comes to a match-ti-break, this match ti-break counts as one more single game. So with 6-4 4-6 X:X oder nearly every result that involves a 7, this line is covered. Back Fabio Fognini (+1,5 sets) to beat David Ferrer. 3,59 @ pinnacle (2/10). Ferrer is big favorite, no question. But Fognini is able to win sets even against the big boys, when he gets a run. In Acapulco he already won a set against Ferrer on clay court, and in Indian wells Fognini even forced Djokovic to play three sets. Because Ferrer is a bit struggling these days, I hope Fognini will get this game in three sets, too. I am also considering to back Malisse against Nishikori, Dolgopolov against Haas and Kamke against Melzer. Hope you can help me out there.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Back Nicolas Almagro (-6 games) to beat Guido Pella. 2,70 @ pinnacle (6/10) Young Argentinian Pella should lose this game quite clear. Almagro is simply the better player, more experienced, and Pella should have no weapons against him, especially on hard court. Pella lost againt Dodig at Indian Wells 1:6 2:6. Almagro has beaten Pella just a few weeks ago in Buenos Aires on clay court 3:6 2:6. In my mind, these odds seem to be pure value. Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Yen-Hsun Lu. 2,02 @ pinnacle (6/10) I agree to you all. Better player, and even with self-confidence now due to the miracle win with Mirnyi against Bryan/Bryan. Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Martin Klizan. 1,60 @ marathonbet (9/10) Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Martin Klizan in straight sets. 2,40 @ pinnacle (5/10) Klizan is a clay courter with no win on hard court in this year. Last week he lost against Lu. Nieminen is in good shape, has beaten Nalbandian, and is in total the better player. I simply don´t see Klizan winning here. Nieminen is always able to crush weeker opponents, that´s why I am betting on straight sets victory, too. Santiago Giraldo vs. Marin Cilic over 20,5 games. 2,16 @ marathonbet (6/10) Odds seem too high here for this low line. Of course, Cilic is the favorite here, but Giraldo is a solid player that can cause Cilic problems, especially at this slow court in long reallys. Cilic himself - I simply don´t like his style of play - hasn´t that good returns to break Giraldo more than a few times. With one set going to tie-break, this bet should be won.

Almagro d. Pella 6-0 6-3 Youzhny d. Lu 6-3 1-6 6-0 Nieminen d. Klizan 6-2 6-2 Cilic d. Giraldo 6-2 7-6 (21 games) :) Yet still a decent start to Miami despite the losses of day 1 :)

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Nicolas Almagro (-6 games) to beat Guido Pella. 2,70 @ pinnacle (6/10) Young Argentinian Pella should lose this game quite clear. Almagro is simply the better player, more experienced, and Pella should have no weapons against him, especially on hard court. Pella lost againt Dodig at Indian Wells 1:6 2:6. Almagro has beaten Pella just a few weeks ago in Buenos Aires on clay court 3:6 2:6. In my mind, these odds seem to be pure value. Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Yen-Hsun Lu. 2,02 @ pinnacle (6/10) I agree to you all. Better player, and even with self-confidence now due to the miracle win with Mirnyi against Bryan/Bryan. Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Martin Klizan. 1,60 @ marathonbet (9/10) Back Jarkko Nieminen to beat Martin Klizan in straight sets. 2,40 @ pinnacle (5/10) Klizan is a clay courter with no win on hard court in this year. Last week he lost against Lu. Nieminen is in good shape, has beaten Nalbandian, and is in total the better player. I simply don´t see Klizan winning here. Nieminen is always able to crush weeker opponents, that´s why I am betting on straight sets victory, too. Santiago Giraldo vs. Marin Cilic over 20,5 games. 2,16 @ marathonbet (6/10) Odds seem too high here for this low line. Of course, Cilic is the favorite here, but Giraldo is a solid player that can cause Cilic problems, especially at this slow court in long reallys. Cilic himself - I simply don´t like his style of play - hasn´t that good returns to break Giraldo more than a few times. With one set going to tie-break, this bet should be won.

[WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Mario Götze to score. 2' date=30 @ bet365 (10/10) Götze is playing false9 tonight against Kazachstan, Gomez is injured, so this is safe. 2,30 for the most offensive german player with that much skill like Götze is just ridiculous against an opponent like Kazachstan. Thanks bet365.

22´ 0:2, Götze Thank you, bet365 :)

[WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Mario Götze to score. 2,30 @ bet365 (10/10) Götze is playing false9 tonight against Kazachstan, Gomez is injured, so this is safe. 2,30 for the most offensive german player with that much skill like Götze is just ridiculous against an opponent like Kazachstan. Thanks bet365.

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Nice analysis and good to see a new face around here.

Thank you. I´m quite glad to be here and I just want to introduce myself to let you know who I am. I´m from Germany and betting german and international football matches as well as tennis games. In football, I´m Bayern Munich supporter, that´s my team (perhaps you´ll know why I chose my user name). I play tennis myself and as far as the pro level is concerned, I support both Federer and Nadal. Seems to be strange, but that´s the way it is. I used to bet football and tennis games with ups and downs, but I made profits on a long-term basis. Unfortunately last year I had to stop betting for more than half a year, because I simply didn´t have the time to watch tennis games. In February, I started once again, but I was kinda out, had lost my feeling and lost money, money that I earned due to Chelsea´s victory against Bayern in last UCL final. I have a habbit to lay my own team in very important games in order to be not that disappointed when they lose. However, not to be that disappointed didn´t work in that case, but at least the game gave me good money. What I´m tyring to say is...last week in Indian Wells, I think that my feeling came back and my bet are getting better again. So I want to get the lost money back and earn even more. I hope you can help me, and I hope, I can help you. That´s why I´m posting here now, cause I´ve read here for some time and recognized that here are some very good punters. So you will read something from me in the next time - if you want. My english isn´t that good at all, but I hope you´ll understand me. :)

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31

Nice analysis and good to see a new face around here. If I may give you a tip about your odds. I think it's better to take odds from a more reliable bookie like Pinnacle even if they may a bit lower. Bwin and Marathon are joke bookies that limit winning punters really fast.

Thanks for your advice. I chose bwin here, because they pay out when one ball is played, and I can see Nishikori retire here. At marathonbet I just opened a new account to test a new one, after Betvictor had just closed my account there :sad

[March 18 - March 31]

Re: March 18 - March 31 Back Victor Hanescu to beat Kei Nishikoro. 5,75 @ bwin (3/10) I´d like to add Regnavettos statement of the match. For sure Nishikori is the better player and in normal condition, he would win that, but I´ve watched him play against Berlocq last week in Indian Wells, after he had retired in Delray Beach. He wasn´t only cruel and disastrous, but also seemed injured. He served like a woman with no speed both on first and second serve and was lucky that Berlocq´s returned were that bad either. Hanescu is a clay courter, but he´s experienced and the conditions in Miami will suit him. So, I see massive value in this pick. I´ll take this at a one ball bookie to be payed out, if Nishikori retires. Back Nikolay Davydenko (-2,5 games) to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov. 2,01 @ pinnacle (6/10) I don´t like backing Davydenko and I don´t like backing his opponent either, because many of his games seems strange or even fixed. But in last times Dabydenko was more "consistent" in his play, although the match against Lorenzi (according to some rumours he is well known for some fixing, too) seemed to be crazy again. 6:0 2:6 6:0. Typical Davydenko performance. So why do I take that? Because just on on-court reasons, Davydenko should win this game. Dolgopolov is out of shape, and Davydenko isn´t. He should profit from this as he is able to keep the ball in game until the opponents makes errors. Davydenko should also have the experience and the calm to respond on Dologpolovs flexible play. I could imagine the odds will drop more and more till the game begins. Back James Blake to beat Julien Benneteau. 2,33 @ pinnacle (5/10) I totally agree with Regnavettos analysis, but will take the more risky one. I think Blake can win this games, odds should be even. Daniela Hantuchova vs Sara Errani over 20,5 games. 1,94 @ marathonbet (6/10) The met two times this year, one game won Errani, one Hantuchova and both games went over three sets. The line seems to low here to give almost even odds. 7:5 6:3 would be enough. I´m also considering backing Hantuchova here, cause the odds just seem a bit too high (3,15). Errani should be favourite bacause she is in my opinion the better player and the slower conditions in Miami will suit her style of play. But it´s still hard court and she will face an opponent who has beaten her 5 times out of 8 games. What do you think? Back Urszula Radwanska to beat Ana Ivanovic. 2,56 @ marathonbet (5/10) I also see value in this pick. Two similar players meet here. In good days both of them can crash an opponent, and in bad days both can crash herself by making massive errors. Urszula is quite the opposite of her sister, way to inconsistent to be a top 10 player, but at recent times, she is in good shape, while Ivanovic isn´t. I just hope that Urszulas run continues and she is the one, that makes more points and less errors. Odds seem way to high here, considering Ivanovic as the player with more potential, but less shape.

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Brilliant tennis from Fish at the moment. Ridiculous odds on break by Fish etc. Think he can win the whole game. 3,20 at bet365 at the moment.

[March 4 - March 17]

Re: March 4 - March 17 Facundo Bagnis - Thiemo de Bakker: 2 (HC -2,5 games); @ 1,90 with bet365 Between all this master tennis here´s one chellenger pick. It´s the Santiago final, and I see Thiemo de Bakker win this quite easy. He´s by far the better player, good serve, straight wins in the tournament so far. He is playing challenger to get back on track, and he seems to be successfull in that. Facundo Bagnis is neither a good nor a bad player, just nothing special at all. He has been quite struggling to get to the final, but in my opinion he won´t win that.

[Bundesliga > 8th - 10th March]

Re: Bundesliga > 8th - 10th March VfB Stuttgart - Hambueger SV: 2 - @ 3,11 with Pinnacle - (3/10) X2 - @ 1,66 with Pinnacle - (4/10) Maybe this pick is gambling, but we all do like gambling sometimes, that´s why we are here. I simply don´t see why Stuttgart should be favorites here. They played Thursday against Lazio, they will play next Thursday against them, too. They didn´t have the squad depth to let some players rest, but perhaps they will do. The league is already done for them, and they are just one game away from playing international football next year, too (German cup half final at home against Freiburg). And - above all - at the moment you can´t watch their games without getting eye cancer... And now to Hamburg, that´s why this pick is gambling...they dare to win one day in Dortmund 4-1, then lose in Hannover 5-1...such an unconstant team. They would have the strength to play international footbaal at good days, but these days are quite to rare. So noone mighy know how they play today, but a normal performacne should be enough to at least the X2-pick.

[Bundesliga > 8th - 10th March]

Re: Bundesliga > 8th - 10th March Hannover 96 - Eintracht Frankfurt: 1 - @ 2,56 with Pinnacle - (7/10) In my opinion Hannover 96 is favorite in this game. They play very well at home, being 3rd of Bundesliga, if you just consider home matches (8 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats). Frankfurt on the other hand is one of the surprising teams this year, being now 5th in the league with one game less than Schalke. But the last games, their form dropped a bit and now they just perform as everyone has expected pre-season. The last four games Frankfurt couldn´t win, being defeated twice and scoring no goal. Tactics might also be in favour of Hannover: They´re strong on the counter-attack, passing very straight forward after winning balls. Frankfurt will give them the space, they play more possession-based and even away they don´t like to defend. With Hannover winning today, they´re just 1 point behind Europa League ranks, so they might be well motivated too.