joeblitz

Hello everyone,
I've been very busy for the past 18 months or so and just a fleeting visit to give you my thoughts on Cheltenham.
Champion Hurdle:
Impossible for me to look beyond Faugheen. Slammed Nichols Canyon in a gallop at the Curragh prior to his defeat at Punchestown. That gallop took too much out of him as he was very unfit at the time. The Punchestown race was run at a crawl and the proximity of Wicklow Brave illustrates this. He was fitter at Kempton and won as expected. He runs at Leopardstown on Sunday where even though the ground will favour Nichols Canyon he should still win. I am surprised Nichols Canyon is running giving Mullins's post race comments after his Leopardstown Christmas victory over Identity Thief "he had a very hard race and will be given a long break".
Knock him if you like but he has won a CH and seems to be even better on better ground, a comment that does not apply to either Nichols Canyon or Identity Thief. Arctic Fire is not good enough and the UK challenge likewise. Either back him or stay out!
Arkle:
The reason Douvan is not in the CH is because of Faugheen. If allowed to run with Faugheen out he would win. Douvan jumps well, oozes class and only a fall or mishap can prevent him from winning. It really doesn't matter who takes him on in the race. It is his to lose. Either back him or stay out!
Supreme:
Min will win. Again, he oozes class and jumps well.Mullins has a line into all of the opposition. Tombstone is the danger if there is one but he may not prefer the faster ground at Cheltenham and is probably better over a better trip. Either back him or stay out!
Mares:
If Annie Power turns up and completes, unlike last year she will win. She is in a different league to this lot. Either back her or stay out!
Mares Novice:
Limini is the best around by a mile. She won her only race at Punchestown with stones in hand and the race could not have worked out any better. She looked really good that day and not alone will she win this but expect her to win the mares hurdle next year after Annie Power retires. Either back her or stay out!
Ryanair:
Vautour only has to jump around to collect. He may still run in the Gold Cup but with Mullins going for Champion Trainer in the UK this is unlikely. Either back him or stay out!
Cross Country:
Trained by the master, Enda Bolger, Josies Orders has won both banks races here, has youth on his side and is still improving. He will be very hard to beat.
The Others:
I see the Champion Chase as being a match between Un De Sceaux and Dodging Bullets. I favour Un De Sceaux but he is a headcase so I'll stay out.
I like Don Cossack in the Gold Cup slightly over Don Poli. The cheekpieces and better ground will help.
The other races are up for grabs but I would be wary of Black Hercules on faster ground as I think he needs it like a bog.
I expect Shaneshill to fall in whatever race he goes for as his jumping has been very dodgy.
Of the others, Bellshill looks good if he handles the faster ground and Killultagh Vic has a big chance wherever he runs. Also Doctor Harper, trained by Pipe would be very interesting in a handicap over 3miles and on better ground as he has been quietly campaigned over trips way short of his best and on very slow ground which should ensure a good handicap mark.
Again, these are just my opinions...
Remember that any profit constitutes value. Pick the horses you think will win because they cannot help what price they will be and be selective!
Happy Punting and Good Luck