alun
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Posts posted by alun
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Re: 2% a day
:lol that's sooo jammy!!!That's a good point. One of my low points of last year was when I backed a horse at about 20/1 on Betfair for a sizeable amount, thinking that the price would drop before the off so I could lay it off for a guaranteed profit (I was right, the SP was 11/1), but Betfair went down, so I didn't manage to lay it. (One of my high points was when it won. :D) -
Re: 2% a day Interesting post. Can you clarify if you're saying 0.5% or 0.05% Thanks again for this Mr I
People who trade with there whole bank in a market are mental IMO:D. What if your computer dies or Betfair goes down? That second one happens more regularly than it should. I wouldn't have more than 20% of my bank in a market at any time, even when just looking for a few ticks. On another note, if you could increase your bank by 0.5% a day then it would be multiplied by over 6x in a year which I think is really great going. Remember that 0.05% is the average, so includes the bad days when you make a loss (which will happen!). If you started with a bank of £425 and did that for 3 years you could have a bank of £100000!:loon -
Re: 2% a day
cheers slapdash. some interesting points there. what do you think is a realistic daily target in terms of %age increase in bankI'm still sceptical about it being as easy as you make it sound. Trading like that isn't realy fundamentally different from betting: you're just betting on which way the price will move rather than on the result of the race. In your example, the price has to drift to about 2.04 for you to lock in a profit of £20. If you use a stop loss if the price drops to 1.96, then basically you're betting about £20 at odds of about evens that the price will hit 2.04 before it hits 1.96 (ignoring the possibility that the price might never get that high or that low). Even if you had a 60% success rate, your bank would still only increase at the rate of around 0.4% per bet. Also, you need to be able to get a bet the size of your entire bank matched, which would start to be a problem when the bank started getting big. I'm not saying that you couldn't make money like this. I just think you're being very optimistic about how fast you could make it. -
Re: 2% a day you could trading though couldn't you. for instance. you have a bank of 1000. you lay a horse at evens for 1000 quid. your whole bank is on it, but you implement a stop loss so that in fact only a small portion is ever at risk. and then you take 2% profit if it drifts? moreover you can keep reinvesting that money over and over again so that means it should be even more achievable. i was thinking along such trading ideas because i agree, simply betting means that 2% is actually much higher in terms of what you REALLY invest. any nice safe trading ideas to achieve just 2% of your bank per day? al
I think you underestimate how hard that would be. To consistently increase your bank at a rate of 2% a day would be HUGE. Sure, a yield (profit as a percentage of stake) of 2% is achievable, but that's a very different thing. For example, suppose that each day you found a bet at odds of 2.10 which actually had a 50% chance of winning. That would give you a yield of 5% (which is decent for bets at these odds). But you can't just stick your whole bank on every day and expect to increase it by 5% a day. If you do that, you'll lose your entire bank as soon as one of the bets loses, which almost half of them will. The best you can do is to stake about 4.5% of your current bank on each bet. Then each win will add 4.95% to your bank (i.e., multiply it by 1.0495) and each loss will multiply it by 0.955. So a win and a loss (which is what you expect from two bets on average) will multiply your bank by 1.0495 * 0.955, or about 1.0023, which equates to a (compound) interest rate of only a little more than 0.1% per bet. -
Given that 2% profit per day will eventually make you rich if you compound it, and given that 2% profit per day (just 20p from £10 investment) seems a realistic goal.... .....what would people advise for someone wanting to invest £10 every day and emerge with £10.20
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Re: The Tipsters System the correction has happened. now running at 65% yet still in profit :clap
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Re: The Tipsters System
betfair suspends the market but does not cancel bets already matched. if you ahve an unmatched bet on order, only that will be cancelled. what happens to matched bets is that they will look at how important the horse is to the race and will knock that off the price of all matched bets. so the bet stands, but they effectively do an equivalent to the rule 4 that happens on course in such circumstances. alI am pretty sure Betfair cancels all bets when a non-runner is declared (I could be wrong)? -
Re: The Tipsters System good start pinho. you're running at a much higher strike rate than expected, just so everyone expects a losing run and doesn't freak when it happens. keep it up!
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Re: The Tipsters System pinho, good research from massey. what you are saying makes sense :ok
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Re: The Tipsters System would have worked really well today only for the 3 NH horses. given that this has been tested in the summer, how valid is the test for NH. I'm aware that NH racing is much less competitive and so opposing the fancied horse should give a lower strike rate and maybe even different results. are u able to work through the results and find out how it fared over flat vs national hunt
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Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts thanks pinho! great stuff! :clap
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Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts yet another q i'm afraid. are your results before commission or afterwards. if before, what is the effect of commission on your yield? al
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Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts pinho what are the results like if you only include those days where you were actually doing it and getting genuine betfair prices rather than guesstimated betfair prices. does that make a difference at all? al
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Re: The Tipsters System good luck pinho
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Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Pinho Do you have the s/sheet of results at all? The next question is how big should 1pt be. I was going to have a nose at that and see Al
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Re: impact of commission? slapdash perfect explanation. thanks. makes perfect sense al
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if you were researching a system and 100% return was break even ie the backer gets 100% of their money, what %age return would you need to look for in order to overcome the effect of a 5% betfair commission. Two answers required a) if backing b) if laying Al
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Re: Lay the Tipsters Pinho Can I ask whether the prices are based on guessed betfair odds ie SP plus a bit, or whether these are based on actual betfair prices at the off? If the former, how much additional are you adding to SP. Looking forward to the spreadsheet on the 31st (or whenever its posted). Al
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Re: Trainer Form thanks for the info. you're right. the average currently for trainers who've had 10+ runners on the flat in the last fortnight is 10.5%
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Re: Trainer Form I'll offer this definition. To be regarded as out of form the trainer must a) have had 10 or more runners in the last 14 days b) have less than a 10% strike rate from those runners Anyone think this is a decent definition? Al
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Quick brain pick. How would you define a trainer as being OUT of form. Racing Post's Postdata does it over 2 weeks I think (it looks like no winners in 2 weeks equals a X for Postdata even if the trainer only saddled 2 horses in that time which seems odd). So firstly, am I right in figuring out how Postdata defines an out of form trainer. And secondly, more importantly, what other ways are there of definining a stable out of form. Ta Al
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Re: "80' minute favourite" System
Given the Paul Steele stat I've just posted, I'd have laid all of these at those prices, except for West Ham given the sending off.Don't know... but wouldn't be more profitable laying the winner on the minute 80 if there is only one goal difference? I don't have the time to look at the data, but it might be better... Your selections: Back Start 10 Points. @ 1.10 -> -10 points. Back Aberdeen 10 points @ 1.23 -> -10 points. Back Werder 10 points @ 1.13 -> +0.13 points. Back Newcastle 10 points @ 1.15-> +0.15 points. Back WHU 10 points @ 1.07 -> +0.07 points. so... today's P/L = -19.65 points. Laying instead the result would be +19.65 points!. As somebody said, late goals can **** up the system, an there are a lot of late goals around. -
Re: "80' minute favourite" System According to Paul Steele's excellent book Profitable Football Betting, if a home team is 1-0 up after 80 mins they will win 74% of the time.
2% a day
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: 2% a day
thanks Mr I, really valuable advice. Does anyone have any trading tips to offer, or is there any good archive discussions on trading that you can point me to. I've traded before so know the mechanics but haven't been too successful overall.