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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Merc

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Posts posted by Merc

  1. Re: French Open 2013

    6-1, 6-1 Exhausion gets considered too much in grandslams.
    Hm not really. If Youzhny would have showed up, this match could go to 4/5 sets. Then Youzhny would have a clear advantage. Odds were a complete joke just before the match. Haas @ 1.75 really? He showed nothing special and Youzhny played some decent tennis.
  2. Re: April 22 - April 28

    Back Lourdes Dominguez-Lino to beat Francesca Schiavone for a 2/10 stake at 3.00 with BetVictor Francesca Schiavone might have won all of her matches in straight sets, but the truth is that I still didn't like her performances that much, so I find these odds to be a bit high. Dominguez-Lino is having a fairly good year and has enough quality to beat the Italian, so I certainly wouldn't be surprised by seeing her walking away with the trophy at the end of the day. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dominguez-lino-vs-schiavone-betting-lourdes-dominguez-lino-should-be-able-to-push-the-italian-to-the-limit-20130428
    In my opinion, Schiavone was pretty impressive yesterday. Dominguez should have lost against Bertens. Minella made tons of errors in 3rd set. Schiavone could dominate rallies in this match. When Dominguez starts hitting double faults, I think it will be quitte easy for Schiavone. 2-0 odds are raising which in my opinion is not logical.
  3. Re: March 4 - March 17

    Facundo Bagnis - Thiemo de Bakker: 2 (HC -2' date=5 games); @ 1,90 with bet365 Between all this master tennis here´s one chellenger pick. It´s the Santiago final, and I see Thiemo de Bakker win this quite easy. He´s by far the better player, good serve, straight wins in the tournament so far. He is playing challenger to get back on track, and he seems to be successfull in that. Facundo Bagnis is neither a good nor a bad player, just nothing special at all. He has been quite struggling to get to the final, but in my opinion he won´t win that.
    Don't know if you saw De Bakker against Lama but he was really erratic on return. Yes, on serve De Bakkers looks good, powerful. But Bagnis could frustrate him with powerful shots and Bagnis has a decent serve himself. I hope however for De Bakker to finish Bagnis as I do not like him at all.
  4. Re: Australian Open 2013 Murray under 28.5 @ 1.84 12BET stands out for me at this moment. Murray could start slowly but Haase is not great on return, plus Murray has the abilities to crush Haase on his own serve. I do not see a tie break in this math so Haase can win 10 games which is a lot. Especially against Murray and when you are already two sets down.

  5. Re: 2013 BDO World Championship

    why do you favour -1.5 so much' date=' over say a simple bet on the match winner. Is there a statistical reason behind this decision?[/quote'] This is an easy one. -1.5 has simply better odds than the match winner. O'Shea @ ~1.50 is also a nice odd but to gain as much profit with this kind of odds, you have to stake a lot more units.
  6. Re: International Friendlies > 2012

    Well' date=' netherlands should win this with that squad @2.5[/quote'] I saw the probable line-ups in the newspaper this morning and I do not like the Dutch squad at all. Schaken, van Rhijn and Kuyt are just not good enough for this level. Van der Vaart will be tired as usual. On the other hand, I saw Germany will line up Reus, Götze, Podolski and Müller. Altough Podolski is not in great form, these players will cause too much trouble for the Dutch defense in my opinion.
  7. Re: Group L > 8 November (FC Twente, Hannover 96, Helsingborgs, Levante) In my opinion, Twente is too short here. They have not convinced me this season. Chadli is out but Tadic will be there. I think Twente does lack a good striker. Castaignos is useful when there are spaces on the field. Levante will limit these spaces so Castaignos will have troubles creating chances. Brama is too slow for counterattacks and Douglas seems uninterested sometimes. I do not say Levante +0.5 is a good pick but I do not trust Twente at this price.

  8. Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2012/13

    utrecht toningt is a good bet. they have a full squad today and are unbeaten away this season. willem 2 won only 1 game this season 1-0 and their best striker is out for six weeks. full stakes on utrecht for me
    Nice bet indeed. Utrecht is playing well these days. Attacking style with 2 strikers which causes troubles for every team in Eredivisie. Willem II do have some reasonable players and are able to score but Utrecht should win this one. Ruiter is one of the best goalkeepers in the Eredivisie.
  9. Re: October 29 - November 4

    Michael Lodra vs John Isner Any tips for over or under 24.5 games? Need some good tips for today's matchups.
    Rather would skip this one. Isner really unpredictable in last matches. Due to his serve you would say an over but I would rather go for Llodra game handicap. I think the French will be pumped up for this one.
  10. Re: Group F > 4 October (AIK Solna, Dnipro, Napoli, PSV) I should be careful with PSV this evening. History looks to be on their side but their defence is horrible. Waterman is a short goalie and Bouma will play on leftback. I do not know which winger from Napoli will play but he definitely will have one easy match. Bouma is too old, too slow and will be outplayed every time. Marcelo looks strong but does make mistakes all the time. Vargas and Insigne should exploit this chance and I see some goals. PSV does have some fast and powerful attackers. Over or BTS looks a better option to me. However, keep your stakes low as this is Europa League. One of the most difficult competitions for us.

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