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pedigreechump6

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Posts posted by pedigreechump6

    Spread Picks To Lose

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Spread Picks To Lose results: Salisbury 1.50 Seven No Trumps 10-13 (50-25-10) 5th. :clap Carlisle 2.30 Abbey Cat 18-21 (50-30-20-10) 4th. :clap Redcar 3.10 Racoon 13-16 (50-30-20-10) 2nd. :@ Carlisle 4.00 Merlins Profit 16-19 (50-25-10) 6th. :clap today's profit/loss = 17 pts Starting Bank 100 Bets 5 Wins 4 Profit/Loss +20 Current Bank 120

    Shortening and drifting odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Shortening and drifting odds Just found this in an article: Horses that are forecast favourites do considerably better if they actually start as favourite. Horses that are forecast favourite and are favourite at the “off ” (favourite at SP) win 34.8% of their races. Horses that are forecast favourite and are not favourite at the “ off ” win only 18.2% of their races. don't know how reliable this info is, but if true it justifies the lengthening odds of a horse.

    Outsider Spread Picks

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Outsider Spread Picks Warwick 2.35 Spindor 5-7 (50-30-20-10) nowhere:@ Ripon 3.00 Bold Chevrak 6-8 (50-30-20-10) nowhere:@ Chepstow 3.40 Cois Na Tine Eile 6-8 (50-30-20-10) 2nd. :clap Today's profit/loss = +7 Starting Bank 100 Bets 16 Wins 5 Profit/Loss +40 Current Bank 140

    Shortening and drifting odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Shortening and drifting odds I see. That makes it a little harder for people like me who tend to make my picks based on form. If I see a horse's odds have drifted I tend to be wary but have never relaised why things can change so dramatically. Is it a sensible strategy to follow the money? I mean are the horses whose odds have shortened really that much more likely to win? What about the horses whose odds have drifted, are they ones to avoid? Are there any stats on such horses anywhere for me to look at?

    Shortening and drifting odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I realise that odds change depending on where the money is heading, but that surely doesnt mean a horse has more or less chance of winning than before does it? I have just been looking through todays racecards and noticed that for the race at Epsom 3.25 the odds on Fruit Of Glory have gone from 9/2 on the betting forecast to 10/1. in contrast the odds for One Putra have gone from 7/1 to 10/3. Is the betting forecast just a bit unreliable? If the odds drift considerably, surely this means better value for the punter? The horses haven't changed at all so why the sudden swing in odds?

    Upsets likely in which sort of race?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I was just wondering if there are certain races where the favorite might stand less of a chance and the outsiders more of a chance than usual? Just some examples: Upsets more likely in races in class 1 or class 6? Upsets more likely in handicap races or not? Upsets more likely over longer races or sprints? Upsets more likely on firm ground or soft? Just wondering as it might help me in my new picking process where I intend to find favs or 2nd favs who I think will be unplaced.

    Outsider Spread Picks

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Outsider Spread Picks Still can't find the spreads for the 26th. but at a rough guess I'd say I would have lost about 34pts so that is what I will call it. My selections for today are: Warwick 2.35 Spindor (50-30-20-10) Ripon 3.00 Bold Chevrak 6-8 (50-30-20-10) Chepstow 3.40 Cois Na Tine Eile (50-30-20-10) spreads for the 2.35 and 3.40 to follow...

    Outsider Spread Picks

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Outsider Spread Picks No winners today, but I can't seem to find the spreads for the horses I selected. Wasn't around to check at the time of the race, but will try and find them later. At most, my loss could have been 40 points, but that is worse case scenario (i.e. all horses had a buy bet of 10) Things were bound to go wrong at some point...

    Outsider Spread Picks

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Outsider Spread Picks Initial picks for today, although they may change if spreads are not favourable: Salisbury 4.25 Mount Benger Thirsk 4.45 Night Sight Newcastle 5.30 Noble Mount Newcastle 7.00 Blue Maeve I only take spreads with a 'buy' price of 10 or less, so some of these may be diaqualified on that basis. Won't be around later so will update tonight or tomorrow...

    Outsider Spread Picks

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Outsider Spread Picks I like the idea of the staking plan, but as I am trying to pick outsiders to win it is innevitable that sooner or later I will have a losing streak. I always like to keep away from systems or staking plans that require me to increase my stake, and with spread betting the risks are even more apparent. I think the reason a lot of people don't like spread betting is the fact that you can lose more than your original stake, but I just adjust my stakes accordingly; you can always work out exactly how much you could lose in worst case scenarios. Also, maybe a lot of people don't really understand the principle of spread betting and just stay away for that reason.

    Outsider Spread Picks

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Outsider Spread Picks Thanks for the encouragement spreadman. Reslutls for today: Musselburgh 3.30 Lyndalee 4-6 (50-25-10) nowhere :@ Musselburgh 4.30 Highland Warrior 6-8 (50-30-20-10) nowhere:@ Lingfield 4.50 Zerlina 4-6 (50-30-20-10) 3rd. :clap Lingfield 5.20 Reaching Out 5-7 (50-30-20-10)2nd. :clap Daily Profit/Loss = +23 Starting Bank 100 Bets 7 Wins 3 Profit/Loss +62 Current Bank 162 Still going well, will come back down to earth soon no doubt.

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