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pedigreechump6

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Posts posted by pedigreechump6

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Pre & post-flop odds In fact, here is the quote from the program itself: "Finally, decide what stage of the hand you want the odds to reflect. The default is "Showdown," meaning that the statistics generated are the probability that a given event will happen at or before the showdown. If you choose an earlier stage in the hand, such as the Turn or the Flop, then the simulation will NOT deal out community cards past the specified stage, and the generated statisitics represent the probability that a given event will happen AT OR BEFORE the specified stage. If you've put more cards on the table than allowed at the stage you've chosen, PokerOdds will generate statistics for the LATER stage. At the bottom of the results chart, a warning will be displayed." I am now more convinced than ever that slapdash is correct and that the odds, on average, do not change from round to round.

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Pre & post-flop odds I think I might have worked out the meaning of masterplan's odds. The program gives you percentage probabilities and you can choose from "deal to flop", "deal to turn" or "deal to showdown" and my understanding of it is that "deal to flop" actually tells you the probabilities of each hand being the best at this one stage, NOT the probability that it will go on to win in the showndown. So the pair of jacks has a higher chance of being the best hand after the flop than after the showdown which makes sense.

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Pre & post-flop odds slapdash, your logic is unquestionable, and after looking at my results more carefully I can confirm that you are correct with regards to the pre and post-turn scenario. So this is the same with the flop then? If so, I wonder what masterplan's calculator is telling us? It's a shame I cant test this without having to input every flop combination manually....

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Pre & post-flop odds sorry about that slapdash, I meant 41 possible turn cards basically i used my calculator and inputted 4 hands and the flop, then I put in each of the remaining 41 cards as a possible turn card and recorded the probability it gave of each hand winning. On average the probabilities do change after the turn.

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Pre & post-flop odds slapdash, if this is the case, would you say that the chance of winning pre-turn is the avergae, over all turn cards, of the chance of winning post turn? This is definitely not the case as I have tried this manually using my calculator inputing each of the 44 possible turn cards and the probabilities DO change. So surely a similar outcome would happen for the flop?

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Pre & post-flop odds Masterplan, that is exactly what I was after! Thanks so much! Sorry for not making the question clear enough but it was hard to put into words......for me at least. Out of interest, what calculator are you using? Is it a home-made one or one you purchased?

    Pre & post-flop odds

    in Poker

    Posted

    Hi, just wondering if anyone could help me with this.... Say I was playing a 4 hand game of poker and I knew all of the four hands, then how do the odds change from pre-flop to post-flop? For example, say the hands are JcJd, 8s5c, Ah5h, and 5d2c, then the probabilities of winning at the end(according to pokerstove) are 53.325%, 10.614%, 28.753%, and 7.307% What I want to know is what are the expected probabilities of each hand after the flop? I realise that there are over 13,000 combinations of flop, but theoretically will the probabilities change on average or will they stay the same? Thanks in advance for any help...

    Baseball Notes

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Baseball Notes Just been reading some comments from last season on the stadiums and the direction in which they face, and I dont know if it will work with all of them (although i think it will), but you can use the satelitte on google maps to look at the stadiums really clearly, including how open they are. I tried it with the Dodgers stadium and can see it very clearly indeed at maximum zoom.

    Baseball Double Result

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Baseball Double Result Thanks for the input robby, I can see your angle on things and I must say that my understanding is much greater now. One thing that I must say about baseball is that it seems to go against the form book far more than any other sport I have come across. I used to have a strategy based on the ERA of the starting pitcher, the number of runs scored by the teams in the previous week aswell as bonuses for home/away form and streaks. Unfortunately, despite this and more research, in a long run trial it did not provide a very good yield and was not worth my while. One of the major flaws I had with the recent batting figures for a team is that I did not take into consideration of who their recent opponents were and how good the opposition pitchers were, that was just too much of an information overload. Thanks again!

    Baseball Double Result

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Baseball Double Result firstly eltrev, I have emailed bet365 about this and it is not HT but at the end of the fifth, so both teams have batted for the same number of innings. robby, I agree with what you are saying but surely all of those points would also be factored into the game line? This would mean that the teams would have equal odds in this respect also. IMHO, and I have looked closely into this, the team leading at HT often go onto win, no matter what the margin (obviously the bigger the better) and so it should come down to who is winning at HT. Is it the case that lower game line odds gives the team a better chance of winning at HT?

    Baseball Double Result

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    I have found a price discrepancy that I cannot explain in baseball. On Bet365, there is a bet called the double result which is much like HT/FT in other sports where you predict the result after 5 innings AND at the end. What I don't understand is that only many occasions the double result odds seem to offer extraordinariy good value. Take tonights match Clevland @ Oakland, the game line suggest that Oakland are clear favourites with odds of 1.78 Vs Clevland's 2.07 and yet the double result shows that both teams have odds of 2.75 to be winning after 5 innings and at full time. Surely Oakland are by far a better shot for the double result? Can anybody explain this? It has occured four times in tonights matches and each time the outsider is away from home but hits first, could this be a contributing factor, and if so why?

    SPs For Lay Side

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Are there any sites that give you the results of previous horse races that include the lay price of each horse at the off? I have been trying to follow a system that requires me to know the favourite but I am not always around during the day and favourites change a lot between now and the off so i could do with some history to help me out. If not, is there a way I could estimate these odds given the SPs shown on normal results. Maybe +20% as a rough guide? I would also like the lay prices of the place market on BF or some sort of estimation of these. Thanks!

    Big Races At Newmarket Today

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    With a lot of top class action from Newmarket today, and with 4 races live on channel 4, I thought I would have a go at picking the winners for today. 1.05 Tawgeet 5/2 - I like horses from overseas especially when they are in good form. His third (out of 6) last time out no doubt had something to do with the heavy ground. 1.40 Brandywell Boy 20/1 - Showed he was no chump on his last class 2 outing and shouldn't be underestimated this time. 2.10 Nidhaal 5/2 - A second Irish runner and a winner last time out. Although Flashy Wings looks very strong in this race, I feel this horse is of equal strength and pedigree. 2.45 Araafa 7/1 - One of only a few horses in this race to have had class 1 experience. Two of the others were beaten favorites which I avoid unless they are favorites come the off. 3.20 Slip Dance 12/1 - Another Irish horse who won last time out and a great price . Definitely worth a punt. 3.55 No selection as I have no idea when it comes to maiden stakes. 4.30 Yomalo 5/1 - Has shown great consistency in this class and I believe it is just a matter of time before we see another win. What does anyone think of my selections then?

    Spread Picks To Lose

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Spread Picks To Lose Terrible results today: Sandown 2.35 Holbeck Ghyll 26-29 (50-30-20-10) 1st. :@ Sandown 3.10 Arctic Desert 15-18 (50-30-20-10) nowhere :clap Doncaster 4.30 Reverence 12-15 (50-30-20-10) 1st. :@ Daily Profit/Loss = -47 Starting Bank 100 Bets 11 Wins 8 Profit/Loss -37 Current Bank 63

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