Mattmid
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Posts posted by Mattmid
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Burnley finishes 0-0 but West Ham with a comfortable 3-0 win at Stoke brings in the 3.55
Value 4/7 +4.49pts
Underdog (odds 4 min) 0/3 - 3pts
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Data at bottom
Value
Burnley 3.25
West Ham 3.55
Underdogs (4 min)
none
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A great night with both value bets coming in at 3.75 and 3.30 respectively.
Results so far (5% comm deducted as using betfair odds)
Value 3/6 +3.07pts
Underdog (odds 4 min) 0/3 - 3pts
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A late winner for Burnley at 2.34 and a late collapse from Watford to turn a potential win into a loss!
Value 1/4 -1.73pts
Underdog (odds 4 min) 0/3 -3pts
Leicester and Everton to go tonight.
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Value 0/2
Underdog (odds 4 min) 0/3
Data at bottom. I've made a slight adjustment and decided to go with the median rather than average so as to try to smooth out the outlying games from affecting things too much as I'm going to use last 6 scores as we move forward rather than the whole season to try to keep an element of 'form' in the figures.
Value
Burnley 2.34
Not an awful lot in the Palace v Watford totals (10) so at 3.40 I'm going to plump for Watford again (as long as Benteke stays on penalty duties
)
Leicester at 3.75 looks a decent price too with just 10 between them on ratings as well.
Everton 3.30 at a rating difference of just 2.
Underdogs (4+)
On ratings have to say none of them. On a personal note it wouldn't be a surprise if West Ham beat Arsenal but I can't justify putting it in as this is based purely on the rating levels.
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Well, nothing doing in the end for this weekend, although a close one with Southampton and Bournemouth were in with a shout, whilst the early red card did for Watford's chances. We'll see how it goes midweek.
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Nice start. Could be in for an exciting couple of hours! Good luck
All five of those have realistic chances.
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In the early years of Betfair I was arbing correct scores, betting them at bookmakers and laying them on betfair. In the end I got limited by most of them which was ridiculous I thought. Boyle Sports was the worst. By chance I won a 3-3 bet at 80 on about my fifth bet in there and found myself limited to £1 stakes after that! I even got limited down to a £1 by Bet 365. The one that didn't were Pinnacle but sadly they stopped doing correct scores which was a real shame as they used to have some real crackers when they put them up. I once got a 1-0 at 12.00 that I managed to lay on betfair at 7.60. Got over £200 on it at Pinnacle as well. Those were the days!
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Didn't see these one's
Could be on to something here!
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Interesting results Justanotherpunter. In the end only one result from being in profit.
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I wonder how this would look if you tried laying to a liability? I think that's not a bad option with odds on lays as for instance the Dortmund win at 1.12, if you were laying to £2 liability would be £16+ win, likewise with the Atl Madrid one as well. Spartak and Sevilla would have been nice one's as well
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I thought I'd post these up and see how they do. I've been playing around with the excellent ELO ratings and want to try this. It's based on the team's average game score given by Sir Puntalot but then adjusted by the average of their opponent's average effect to date in their previous games. Having read that back I think an example is needed
These averages are home and away separate as I'm very much a believer that most teams play different home to away.
So this week for example, let's take Burnley v Watford.So far Burnley's average game score at home from the ELO scores is 32, whilst Watford's away game score is 42 (got to say I'm very impressed with Watford this season and if you look who they've played at home as well then their home record should improve too)
Those are the base figures then. Burnley 32 Watford 42
To date, Burnley have reduced their opponents average game score by 0.50 on average, whilst Watford have reduced their opponents average game score by 2.75. I excluded the first three games from the opponents average to let the teams game score average settle down.
Those figures are then added or taken away from the opponents, so Burnley 32 - 2.75, Watford 42 - 0.5. If the opponent average reduction has a minus figure then it's added on to the average instead.
Attached as a jpg is this weekend's fixtures (with current odds from betfair)
A word on Liverpool v Everton. Liverpool have been reducing the opponent's game score massively at home (and away in fact) recently which means Everton's already low away average score has been reduced to minus!
I'm not betting on this for real but for test purposes let's put a few bets that standout and see how they fare.
Quite a few look too close to call or very little value in them
So...
Watford 3.20 (it will be interesting to see if free scoring Watford can break down stubborn Burnley or not)
Man Utd 3.45 (a repeat of the Arsenal game?)
Chelsea and Spurs look bankers but of no value. Leicester or Newcastle to win look fair odds but I've no idea which one will if any so I'll leave that. Similarly with Huddersfield and Brighton.
I think I'll test an underdog one too where the totals are not massively apart and odds are say 4.00+
Southampton 4.10
Stoke DNB 10.50 or Double Chance 4.20 (Not that close but given Spurs form and huge odds might as well add it)
Bournemouth 4.00
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As Harry says use a staking plan and keep a note of your bets on a spreadsheet. If you are betting on low odds unders, write alongside the bet why you are betting it, why you think it will win, write the current score and minutes gone too then you can look back on winning/losing bets and maybe see where you are going wrong. For instance that heavy favourite 2-0 down at half time. There is no way over 3.5 is a 'cert' at that point. Does the favourite regularly score a lot of goals, does the other team concede a lot? Maybe the fave is one of those teams who win 1-0, 2-1, maybe the opponents don't concede many, etc? Plus I've got to say Japan League 2 is anything but predictable for me, I've lost count of the times the results don't go anywhere near what you'd expect in that league.
Also look at it as a percentage, what were the odds at half time. Assuming it was odds on, was it a cert that if they played that half time 10 times, more than 5 times they would score another two goals? That's a lot of times to get two goals for the one thing you can never guarantee in football, a goal.
Also maybe look at something else if you want to bet odds on. I find unders and over extremely difficult to profit on. There's plenty of odds on bets to choose from.
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No, it doesn't have to be a draw, I just mentioned that because you asked if he was only betting the draw for example and increasing stake next round.
It might well have worked for Leeds that way but I wouldn't fancy an increasing stakes system on odds on bets and yes I know that was just a rough guess on odds and many times they'd have been over evens at home but what if the win is on a home win day where they are 1.50 and then they lose the next four bets. It's fraught with danger. You may well be prepared to lose your bank but what if the next bet is more than your initial bank, would you have bet your whole bank on one game for the first bet?
What if Baldeagles £233 bet on Shrewsbury last season hadn't come in? That was the 14th bet in the sequence. Next bet £377. Lose that and it's £610, lose that, £987. Two more and it's two and half grand and Leeds are away to Brighton. Are you going to put that bet on Leeds? Remember the end of season profit was £762 and he made a £485 profit on the last day with a stake of £246. So his profit going into the last day was £277. So he had to bet almost his entire profit for the season on the last day.
He may well continue to profit and I genuinely wish him well that he does but it's an incredibly risky way to go about things for a small profit. I don't mean £762 is a small profit, that's great, but I mean in the context of the fact that you have to consider that a single stake could wipe the whole lot out
Anyway just trying to show the pitfalls, speaking from experience of having been down that route. What you choose to do is of course up to you. But the more teams you pick the more chance you have of busting your bank.
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I spent yesterday evening digging around in the software and I have to say I really like it. There's loads of very useful information, lots of different filters and alerts to test and play around with. I like the my games feature where you can narrow things down and also make notes to refer back to as well. The league stats and group analysis and breaking down into played against a range of teams or positions is a really useful feature too. All in all very impressed and looking forward to delving deeper. Already some ideas are formulating and I'm sure I'll have some suggestions soon for additional features.
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Nick, just to touch on your post here regarding betting the draw by team and increasing stake next round. Don't touch that. There are many teams who go long periods without a draw over a season and it will bust your bank. From memory one in particular a few years ago Xerez didn't draw until the 36th match of the season! There have been other similar ones since. Now, yes of course you can try to target teams but you could still get unlucky so I wouldn't risk that strategy (not saying you are planning on doing so but just to give you a heads up on it).
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Thanks Giraldi, will do that shortly. Spent over an hour late into last night trawling around on the downloaded basic version. Some really great stuff in there, can't wait to get stuck into it
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Hi Giraldi, I would like to take up the offer of a free vip license, if possible.
ELO Test
in ELO Ratings Discussion
Posted
Data below.
A lot of selections this week on the ratings.
Value:
Liverpool 2.96
Watford 3.10
West Brom 3.75
Crystal Palace 2.58
Newcastle 3.90
Underdog (odds 4+)
Burnley 7.40 (just 3 between ratings and an unbelievable price in my opinion)
Everton 6.00 (just 10 between ratings)
Leicester 5.10 (ratings level)
Huddersfield 7.00 (just 10 between ratings)