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About look_and_win

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 03/04/1984
  1. Re: Bundesliga II - 2-5 March ________________________________________ FC Ingolstadt vs. Union Berlin Pick: Union AHC +0,5 Odds: 1,61 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 6/10 ________________________________________ Ingolstadt drew to Dusseldorf and Furth in latest home matches, but their gameplay isn’t good enough to justify these odds. Team is clever, they can’t outplay opponents, but got good results lately. Union is the other side: great gameplay, but poor converting of goal chances. Union has important midfielder Quiring out and sold striker Mosquera, but they play for a win in Ingolstadt and are the better team. They have weak defensive, but against Ingolstadt it should be enough. All in all odds for Union are value, not to loose is the best selection here, both teams could be happy with a draw at the end.
  2. Re: Bundesliga - 24-26 February ________________________________________ Bayern Munich vs. Schalke 04 Pick: Bayern AHC -1,25 Odds: 2,02 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 6/10 ________________________________________ Bayern is under big pressure and will face a thankful opponent. Their offensive did not work well so far, nevertheless they are always able to score. Only Schweinsteiger is out. Schalke has great quality in offensive, too, but indeed they have fast wing players Farfan and Draxler their counterplay isn’t good. Defensive never play without mistakes and against strong offensive they can collapse easily. Goalkeeper Unnerstall and midfielder Jones are out. Schalke is not used to defend, I see them chanceless in Munich. -1,5 would be correct.
  3. Re: Bundesliga II, 17/20 Feb ________________________________________ Alemannia Aachen vs. Hansa Rostock Pick: Aachen AHC -0,5 Odds: 1,94 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 6/10 Alemannia Aachen vs. Hansa Rostock Pick: Over 2,5 Odds: 2,07 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 3/10 ________________________________________ Aachen gets underrated here. Their quality is by far better than their table situation. They have great strikers Radu and Auer, good players on the wings and good gameplay at home. Two weeks ago they won to St. Pauli (2-1), their defeats at home were at the beginning of the season and they improved a lot since then. Streit (RM) is doubtful. Rostock bought some new players and played good last weekend against Duisburg (4-2). They are for sure better than in 2011, but still the much weaker side than Aachen. Aachen is in relegation danger, also, so they will play with good motivation against Rostock and should not underrate them. Odds are not correct for Goal Line and Aachen to win. On a good day Aachen can smash Rostock easily. ________________________________________
  4. Re: Bundesliga - 10-12 February _________________________________________________________________________________________ Pick for 11th February, 15:30 ________________________________________ Mainz 05 vs. Hannover 96 Pick: Over 2,5 Odds: 2,11 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 4/10 ________________________________________ Mainz showed good gameplay lately and they will try to score from the first minute. We can get such high odds, because Hannover played all last seven matches with less than three goals. But they traveled to poor opponents like Freiburg, Kaiserslautern, Hoffenheim and Berlin who were unable to make the running or converse their goal chances. Mainz is much better home side and will play with high pressure. Hannover has defender Haggui back, will try not to concede and play for counter attack. Schlaudraff and Abdellaoue are always dangerous and they should get goal chances, too. Good value, Mainz will play offensive and has self-confidence actually. Defensive of Hannover gets overrated. Otherwise their offensive is able to score twice, too. _________________________________________________________________________________________
  5. Re: Bundesliga 2 - 10-13 February _________________________________________________________________________________________ Pick for 11th February, 13:00 ________________________________________ Union Berlin vs. Dynamo Dresden Pick: Over 2,75 Odds: 2,04 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 3/10 ________________________________________ Derby time in Berlin and i see many goals in this. Union has captain Mattuschka out, new signing Belaid (Apoel) gets his first chance. Against Dynamo it should be easy to score for Union, supporters are on fire and that should give a little push for more goals. Dynamo performed strong last Friday at home to Furth (3-1), in Berlin they will play for counter attack once again and they definitely have ability to score twice against poor Union-defensive. This match could end up easily with three or four goals and Goal line 3 is justified. _________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ Pick for 12th February, 13.30 ________________________________________ Greuther Furth vs. SC Paderborn Pick: Fürth AHC -0,75 Odds: 2,03 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 6/10 ________________________________________ Indeed Furth lost 1-3 in Dresden last Friday, they are in good condition right now. Cup match in Hoffenheim (1-0) showed it, and they became a good home side lately. They have Nöthe, Tyrala, Nehrig and Onuegbu out, but a lot of good replacements. Against Paderborn they will play with highest motivation and they are the better team by far. Paderborn has defenders Wissing and Gonther out, also Mohr is doubtful. Normally their line-up is unable to keep up with Furth, also they showed many mistakes in defensive last weekend (3-2 to Union). I remember when I backed Düsseldorf at home to Paderborn in December and lost this bet because Paderborn played with biggest effort and great counter play, but the gameplay of Furth is just perfected suited for Paderborn. Good control over the game with high technical ability and a lot of patience. So Paderborn got his two latest defeats in Bundesliga (0-1) and in cup (0-4) against Furth. _________________________________________________________________________________________
  6. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February _________________________________________________________________________________________ Sent out on 2nd February, 20:15 6 Picks for 3rd – 4th February Pick for 4th February, 15:30 ________________________________________ VFL Wolfsburg vs. Mönchengladbach Pick: Under 2,5 Odds: 1,94 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 4/10 ________________________________________ Wolfsburg gets more and more to a classic under-team at the moment. Coach changed the squad a lot at transfer period and now they create their new gameplay from a good defensive. Träsch and Rodriguez are one of the best wing defenders at the moment, also central defenders Russ and Felipe played well lately. Also they have Chris as a defensive midfielder, who is great for defending, but untalented for the gameplay. Mandzukic and Sio is a good striker duo, but all in all Wolfsburg play defensive and against Gladbach they will be happy with a 0-0 for halftime. Gladbach is a under-team, too, especially away from home. Last match day they scored three in Stuttgart, but mainly because of Stuttgart’s silliness. Their defensive is great since coach Favre is there, they will not risk anything in Wolfsburg and should not concede in the first half. All in all this is a under-match, also it will be around -10°C in Wolfsburg at kick-off. Can’t see anything than less than three goals, odds are too good. _________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ Sent out on 2nd February, 20:15 6 Picks for 3rd – 4th February Pick for 4th February, 18:30 ________________________________________ Hamburger SV vs. Bayern Munich Pick: Bayern AHC -1 Odds: 1,89 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 6/10 ________________________________________ HSV (5-7-7, H 2-4-4) got better and better since new coach Fink arrived, but they still have their big wekapoint in defensive. Last home match against BVB showed it again where they got smashed and made many simple mistakes. Midfielder Töre and Lam are out, old midfielder Jarolim convinced against Hertha, but will get on his limit when he faces Bayern. Bayern (13-1-5, A 5-1-3) already lost three away matches from home, but against HSV they will have an easy opponent at the moment. They already smashed them 5-0 at home, HSV got better since then but not deciding. Defenders Rafinha and Van Buyten are out. If Bayern will score the first goal we have nearly won this bet and I expect them to do it. _________________________________________________________________________________________
  7. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January _________________________________________________________________________________________ Sent out on 26th January, 20:15 5 Picks for 28th January Pick for 28th January, 15:30 ________________________________________ Pick for 28th January, 15:30 Werder Bremen vs. Bayer Leverkusen Pick: Over 3 Odds: 2,21 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 4/10 ________________________________________ Expected much lower odds for Over goals here. Werder has pathetic defensive in general, but without Naldo every opponent can create goal chances so easily. Kaiserslautern was stupid not to score last weekend, Leverkusen has much more potential and should do it better. Also Schmitz (LD) and Prödl (CD) are out for Saturday, defending line consist of Fritz, Sokratis, Silvestre and Hartherz, probably. Leverkusen still has Renato August, Sam and Barnetta out, but nevertheless they have quality in offensive. Last weekend Mainz showed us that it isn’t difficult to score twice against Leverkusen, even Leverkusen was 2-0 in the lead. Difficult to say how Leverkusen will perform, but if they play for counter attacks it should not be bad for this bet. Werder really showed good gameplay in all of their home matches and will try to score the first goal from the beginning. All in all, this match has great potential for many goals. Odds are value, especially because of Werder line-up in defensive. _________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ Sent out on 26th January, 20:15 5 Picks for 28th January Pick for 28th January, 15:30 ________________________________________ FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern Pick: Kaiserslautern AHC +0,25 Odds: 1,79 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 6/10 ________________________________________ Augsburg won their last two matches at home to Wolfsburg (2-0) and Gladbach (1-0). They have 2-3-3 at home and 3-6-9 at all. They have worst squad of Bundesliga, but a good team spirit and a decent defensive, so they collected 15 points so far. Besides left midfielder Bellinghausen, Augsburg has no important missing. Kaiserslautern is another relegation candidate, but their gameplay is by far better. Biggest weak point is their offensive and converting of goal chances. At the winter break they bought new striker duo Wagner and Swierczok, who should be an improvement for the whole team. Other strikers Shechter and Kouemaha are out. Also they have new left midfielder Jörgensen from Leverkusen. Lautern has 1-4-4 away from home and 3-8-7 overall. They will play from a good defensive, but all in all they are the better team and should not loose this. Odds are not correct: Augsburg will struggle to make the running and despite they play at home, handicap line can’t be -0,25. They won to Wolfsburg and Gladbach lately, but Kaiserslautern will fight over 90 minutes and has the better gameplay at all. In an open battle, Kaiserslautern has an average and should be able to win. _________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ Sent out on 26th January, 20:15 5 Picks for 28th January Pick for 28th January, 18:30 ________________________________________ 1. FC Köln vs. Schalke 04 Pick: Köln AHC +0,25 Odds: 2,28 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 6/10 ________________________________________ Köln has 4-2-3 at home and 6-3-9 overall. They have good counter play and strong striker duo Podolski and Novakovic. No important missing for Köln. Schalke has 4-1-3 on the road and 12-1-5 at all. Höwedes (RD), Jones (DM) and Holtby (DM) are important missing. Raul (OM) is doubtful, Farfan (RM) is not ready to start from the beginning yet. Schalke has a really good team spirit, but with all these missing their quality is limited. Defensive has two weak points now with Uchida and Metzelder, who played poor lately. Odds are ridiculous in this situation, level ball would be correct. Köln has all chances against defensive of Schalke, which never convinced really away from home, even with best line-up. Also gameplay isn’t the same without Farfan, Holtby and Jones. Home advantage is always big in Köln, especially under floodlight they are always able to surprise. _________________________________________________________________________________________
  8. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January VFL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Köln Pick: Köln Odds: 4,75 Bookmaker: bet365 Stake: 6/10 Wolfsburg signed many players at the winter break once again. Some are really great signings, especially left defender Rodriguez has much quality. Like him, central defender Lopes, defensive midfielder Jiracek, right midfielder Vierinha and striker Sio will start against Köln, probably. Best striker Mandzukic is still doubtful. At home VFL has impressive record so far with 5-1-2, but they never convinced me with their gameplay. Also it will be difficult to start with all these new players. Köln has his own quality and you can’t compare this team with others. Defensive isn’t the best, but their big strength are fast counter attacks. Clemens and Peszko behind Podolski with Novakovic in the central is a good combination and difficult to defend for most teams. Besides defender Sereno, Köln will play with his best line-up. Eichner probably will start as left defender. All in all, this match is much more open than bookmakers suggest: VFL increased their quality, but they never played together in this formation. Köln has Novakovic back and Podolski who loves matches like this, where Köln will play for counter attacks. I don’t expect Wolfsburg to make the running and let space for Köln’s counterplay, but the chance is there. Wolfsburg gets overrated, everything can happen – all in all Köln to win, cause I expect a “all or nothing” match here. Odds for Köln are even rising, market has no clue about both teams. 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Werder Bremen Pick: Kaiserslautern AHC +0,25 Odds: 1,82 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 6/10 Kaiserslautern has the weakest offensive next to Augsburg, but at home they are always unpredictable. Striker Shechter is out, new signing Siwerczok will start next to Kouemaha. Their defensive is good, but their creativity and offensive is really poor. Their biggest strength is their team spirit and the effort every player invest, especially at home. Werder is just not the same without Naldo, their best defender by far. Also midfielder Hunt is out. In 2011, Werder only convinced at home. They got a nice win in Mainz (3-1) and a lucky 2-1 in Hoffenheim, but nothing else. They even got smashed in their latest matches, conceded 14 goals out of their matches in Munich, Gladbach and Schalke. Now they will face Kaiserslautern at “Betzenberg” and I don’t see them ready to win this. If Kaiserslautern can stop Pizarro and Rosenborg (maybe Arnautovic), they will have all chances to win this. Midfield of Werder is very unexpected with Bargfrede, Trybull, Ignjovski and Ekici. Kaiserslautern is able to dominate them. In this situation, a +0,25 Handicap for Kaiserslautern is just great. “Betzenberg” always is a big home advantage, under floodlight it will be hard for Werder.
  9. Re: Germany - DFB Pokal - 20-21 December 3:1 +13,4 :ok
  10. Re: Germany - DFB Pokal - 20-21 December 2 Picks for 21st December, 20:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Schalke 04 Pick: Mönchengladbach Odds: 2.75 Bookmaker: bwin Stake: 6/10 Pick: Over 2.5 Odds: 1.97 Bookmaker: pinnacle Stake: 3/10 Gladbach won over Mainz yesterday with 1-0, Reus came back and will start on Wednesday like goalkeeper Ter Stegen. Gladbach has strong defensive and create great combinations by Arango, Reus, Herrmann and Hanke. They are well organized, lost not even one match at home so far (6-3-0). Schalke smashed Werder last Saturday, won three in a row in Bundesliga and won the cup last year. Nevertheless Schalke still has problems in defensive, central defender Matip is a weak point and they often let space for counter attacks. Midfielder Holtby is doubtful, coach Stevens maybe stay at home because of his mother. Schalke has great quality in offensive and good wing defenders, but their gameplay often changes in away matches. They got nice results (4-1-3), but normally they can’t keep up with Galdbach away from home. In August, Schalke won Bundesliga clash with 1-0 at home. Both teams improved a lot since then, but circumstances are totally different in Gladbach. Gladbach will play for a win and they will get goal chances against weak defensive of Schalke for sure. Bookmakers trust too much in Schalke’s latest perfromances, but they didn’t play against a well organized team like Gladbach. Odds for Over 2.5 are a gift also: Both teams will play for a win, both teams are always able to score.
  11. Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December 2-3 = -6:eyes
  12. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December 1-1 & 1-0 & 1-1 = -6.48:eyes
  13. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December 3 Picks for 17th December, 15:30 Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg Pick: HSV AHC -1 Odds: 2.03 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 6/10 HSV showed two faces this season: First with Oenning as headcoach, second with Fink as headcoach. Normally they have quality for position between five and eight, but they started crucial in this season. HSV has 4-6-6 and 2-3-3 at home, but 3-5-0 in their latest matches and increased their gameplay a lot. Midfielder Illicevic came back after an injury and impressed with strong performances, same like striker Guerrero or left midfielder Jansen. Also their defensive became better and better. HSV has cup match in Stuttgart next week, but concentration is on Bundesliga for sure. Augsburg has the poorest squad next to Kaiserslautern and Freiburg. Augsburg has 3-5-8 and 1-2-5 on the road, but won their last two home matches in a row against Wolfsburg and Gladbach. Augsburg hasn’t got a real clue for their matches. They don’t play strong counter football, they have technical-skilled players but no gameplay in offensive. Both central defenders are out, but Sinkala and Sankoh didn’t play bad at last and Sankoh even got a new contract this midweek. Also first goalkeeper Jentsch is out, but Amsif is a really poor replacement. All in all HSV will win this easily, and they will burn for a good leave to their observers. HSV improved their play a lot and they are still underrated for this match. At least we get cash back here, but normally HSV will destroy poor FCA. VFL Wolfsburg vs. VFB Stuttgart Pick: Stuttgart AHC +0 Odds: 1.95 Bookmaker: 188bet Stake: 6/10 Wolfsburg has 5-2-9 and 4-1-2 at home. At home Wolfsburg always play some better, but their gameplay is poor in general. Coach Magath changed his squad a lot due to this season, at last Wolfsburg played with 4-3-3 formation. The best of this team are their wing-defenders Träsch and Schäfer, Mandzukic is a dangerous striker but the rest hasn’t got quality. The last weekend (1-4 in Bremen) proved their weakness in defensive once again. In their latest five matches Wolfsburg conceded 14 goals and if they can’t score an early goal it will be difficult not to loose. Stuttgart is the much better team at the moment: Strong midfielders within fast wingers Okazaki and Harnik, so they play good counter attacks. . VFB has 6-4-6, 2-2-3 on the road, for this match both wing-defenders are out, Gebhardt and Boka will replace them. But this shouldn’t be a big weaking, Stuttgart has the much better gameplay and can outplay poor VFL-defensive easily. Last weekend VFB lost 1-2 to Munich, didn’t play bad at all. Bookmakers didn’t make a real mistake by these odds, because Wolfsburg always is hard to predict, but for me Stuttgart is bigger favorite here. 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hertha BSC Pick: Hertha AHC +0.5 Odds: 1.92 Bookmaker: pinnacle (SBO 1.94) Stake: 6/10 Hoffenheim has 6-3-7 and 3-3-1 at home. Hoffenheim has talented squad, but quality players like Babel, Salihovic or Roberto Firmino don’t play strong continuous. At the beginning Hoffenheim even won Dortmund at home with 1-0 and drew Munich with 0-0, but their latest home performances were really poor: They drew Kaiserslautern and Freiburg both with 1-1 and showed disappointing gameplay. Last weekend Hoffenheim won in Nurnberg with 2-0, but I doubt they also win to Hertha. Hertha has 4-7-5, 2-4-2 on the road. In these days they have some problems because of their coach Babel (contract ends next summer), also their last results were poor. Central defender and captain Mijatovic is doubtful, Janker could replace him. Nevertheless Hertha is much underrated in this match. They have one of the best counter ability in Bundesliga with genious playmaker Raffael and Columbian Adrian Ramos, so they even won in Dortmund with 2-1. Hoffenheim didn’t convince me since months, their last win in Nurnberg wasn’t impressive and Hertha can play on the same level easily.
  14. Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Pick for 16th December, 18:00 Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. SC Paderborn Pick: Dusseldorf Odds: 1.63 Bookmaker: pinnacle (SBO 1.65) Stake: 6/10 Fortuna played an amazing year of 2011. This season Dusseldorf has 12-6-0 and at home 8-0-0. Last match day Dusseldorf drew in Bochum with 1-1, but Dusseldorf’s strength is of course their great home advantage. Their defensive is the best in Bundesliga II, especially central defenders Langeneke and Lukimya are caliber for first Bundesliga by now. In offensive everyone can score, Rösler has much experience, Beister is very dangerous right winger. Dusseldorf will play in cup against Dortmund next week, nevertheless they will concentrate on Paderborn for 100%. SC Paderborn played fantastic season so far, also. Paderborn has 10-6-2 and 5-3-1 on the road. But Paderborn mostly won their matches only because of their great defensive and incapacity of opponents. They haven’t got quality in gameplay, but they play nice counter attacks and have strong standard situations. Last match day Paderborn won with 2-0 at home to Rostock. Paderborn has right defender Wissing and midfielder Brandy out. Dusseldorf is by far the better team and at the end they should win this. I play only normal win, because of great SCP-defensive. Odds over 1.50 are too high here, besides Dresden (1-2) no team had any chance in Dusseldorf so far, Paderborn only has average quality at all.
  15. Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 9-12 December 3-0 & 4-0 = +20.6 :ok