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wistful

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Posts posted by wistful

    2013 Melbourne Cup 5th Nov

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 2013 Melbourne Cup 5th Nov I'm with Simenon. His Ascot Gold Cup form suggests he has the class to win this and he looks plotted up to me. Mullins has only sent one over before, I think. Holy Orders - and it all went pear shaped. This time all has gone sweetly and Simenon had a lovely prep race. The draw is fine, the trainer is world class and the Irish know how to win this race. I listened to Mullins being interviewed about Simenon's chances and he sounded very hopeful. Anyone know where we can watch the race. Got a link?

    Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I fancy both Kizuna and Ruler of the World. I would have preferred a single figure draw for Kizuna but 11 is not too bad. ROTW has a great draw. I have watched the Prix Niel on Youtube and the form looks solid. Ocovango is 3/4 length back in 3rd and ROTW beat him by 2 lengths at Epsom. Ocovango was unlucky not to be a bit closer at Epsom so the form stands up well. I've also watched Kizuna's win in the Japan Derby and he comes with a great late rattle. Puts me in mind of Lammtarra's Epsom Derby win. Three year olds have a great record over the older horses in the Arc. These two came 1st and 2nd in the best Arc trial over C&D and they are both towards the head of the market. The ground looks OK for both. ROTW disappointed in the Irish Derby on ground that may have been too firm. The going in the Prix Niel was soft. I backed both horses each way with RaceBets yesterday. Kizuna 9/1 and ROTW 12/1. I've also had a reverse forecast with vc.bet. Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion.

    Tues: 4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Tues: 4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle I've backed What a Charm each way at 50/1 with Victor. She won the Fred Winter at last year's Festival wearing cheek pieces and has blinkers on for the first time today. She will also like the ground. Previous Festival winning form is worth an enormous amount in my book and at the price, each way, she's a speculative punt.

    Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

    I've backed Negus de Beaumont to win the National Hunt Chase on the Wednesday. I've had £6 at 170 on

    Betfair a couple of week's ago and a more chunky bet today each way at 66/1. He's Ferdy Murphy's only entry in the race and Ferdy has won two of the last six runnings of this race. The horse won his first Chase ever in early January, last month. The last time he managed to win before this was over hurdles 5 years ago. His most recent hurdle form going back to 2007 is 1111516-. His last hurdle race was at the Cheltenham Festival, 6th to Wichita Lineman in 2007 in what is now the Albert Bartlett 3m Novice Hurdle. He runs today in the Eider Chase at Newcastle and is being well supported at 7/1, vying for position as 2nd favourite. A good run today could set him up nicely for Cheltenham. I don't know if his weight could go up for Cheltenahm with a good run today? Perhaps someone here knows?

    Wed: 1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Wed: 1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup I've backed Negus de Beaumont. I've had £6 at 170 on Betfair a couple of week's ago and a more chunky bet today each way at 66/1. He's Ferdy Murphy's only entry in the race and Ferdy has won two of the last six runnings of this race. The horse won his first Chase ever in early January, last month. The last time he managed to win before this was over hurdles 5 years ago. His most recent hurdle form going back to 2007 is 1111516-. His last hurdle race was at the Cheltenham Festival, 6th to Wichita Lineman in 2007 in what is now the Albert Bartlett 3m Novice Hurdle. He runs today in the Eider Chase at Newcastle and is being well supported at 7/1, vying for position as 2nd favourite. A good run today could set him up nicely for Cheltenham. I don't know if his weight could go up for Cheltenahm with a good run today? Perhaps someone here knows?

    Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

    It is the worst time' date=' because I think he'd be a lot shorter in a few weeks time. It's that simple. You could see 400 not a bad return with 15 staked, but even if I'm wrong and Our Father isn't as good as I think I only lose 15 quid. On top of that I've already had one of my biggest bets of the year at 11/4 last time out, so he's already paid me for this weekend, and Cheltenham (regardless in which race he runs). I break on profit from him whatever he does.[/quote'] Mileni. I broadly agree with Aidymac on this. Your reasoning does not make sense. It's irrelevant whether the horse has already won you money or not. It's what you do now that counts. The £15 stake is small beer. Agreed. The £400 or more profit, now bankable, is not small beer. If you are confident that the horse's price will shorten, or if you think that there is a reasonable chance that his price will shorten considerably, then sure, hold onto the bet. But past winnings on the horse should have no effect on your decision making. Having said all the above, I would probably do exactly as you are doing for the fun and excitement of holding onto a huge price. Good luck. :D

    Victor Chandler Chase

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Victor Chandler Chase

    I'll probably just side with Finians Rainbow at the 9/4 VC are offering (plus they are giving you back 25quid in a special). I was very keen on Wishing Thinking at the start of the season but I simply couldn't back him based on his last two runs. I've given up on Somersby so it really came down to the front two. At a stiff track like Cheltenham I'd be in the Al Ferof camp but I think Ascot might just suit Finian's better. But no great confidence.
    Thanks for pointing this out switzerland. I've just had £25 win Somersby at 5/1. Highest rated, first time blinkers and nearly won this last year. So 5/1 looks like value, especially when the stake is effectively free!
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