plinge
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Posts posted by plinge
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Re: Does distance matter? (624 bets, +46.63 points, +7.5% ROI) Congrats on a tidy ROI thus far, especially considering the large number of bets. Do you happen to have any historical stats comparing Strike Rate/Profit/ROI for early rounds of a league compared to the major portion of a season?
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Re: Estimations based on Odds Data of local book
Do you honestly believe the profits (hundreds of millions respectively) of the likes of Billy Walters, Alan Woods, Bill Benter, Zeljko Ranojec and David Walsh are pure myth?living on sports betting is impossible. -
Re: Back tested system US Open 12 % yield, 12 years
Done the right way it is anything but worthless.Back testing is absolutely worthless
I'd have to agree with this. Good luck, gonza, but bear in mind that if you scan enough data you are bound to find statistical anomalies. This is what I would term BackFITTING as opposed to BackTESTING/Historical Analysis. Unless you have a theory as to why certain odds brackets, in certain rounds, in a certain tournament should be successful (and it would want to be one remarkable theory) I would treat this very cautiously.since you already know the results of the matches. Do yourself a favour and don't bet this system. -
Re: Search vor Value Bets! Congrats, on the early success with this. If you don't mind me asking, is there a significant difference between your current approach and what you were doing with the livestream observation thread that you closed?
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Re: Search vor Value Bets!
Stratford 2.35 Royal Peak 14' date='5 1st easy as hell:cow[/quote'] Well done, romped in. -
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Brilliant work guys.
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, Congrats on your profitability thus far. Out of curiosity, what percentage do you have Sheffield at?
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Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Thanks for the clarifications. I just realised that the only flat racing in the UK winter is on the AW. So the the distinction isn't anything special about the surface, just between the flat and jumps, right?
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Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Jay, Sorry to trouble you again, but I've been looking back through the posts and would appreciate it if you could clarify a couple of things before this thread gets put to bed. -Did you only include last start winners with ENTRIES in two or more races SCHEDULED WITHIN two weeks of the win, or did you include all horses RACING WITHIN two weeks of a win and entered in more than one race over any time frame (eg. a horse that racing exactly 14 days after a win and is already entered for another race a few days later)? -Any particular reason you decided to limit this to the AW?
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Re: Recent winners with multiple entries
Many thanks, very helpful.Thanks for your comment. When I started the thread I was using http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/abc-guide' date= but quite quickly I moved onto using individual horse records, such as http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=813426#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form and clicked on the entries tab. Hope this helps. -
Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Hi Jay, Congrats on the success of this "experiment". I'm in Australia and just starting to learn about UK racing; might I ask which websites/resources you use to check for multiple entries?
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Re: Emirates Melbourne Cup Day Tuesday 6 November 2012 So open, but: Americain
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Re: Moonee Valley Betting 27/10/2012 Must say I'm surprised, but there's a bit of whisper for All Too Hard.
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Re: Moonee Valley Betting 27/10/2012 Another thing in Green Moon's favour is that it's one of the few horses in the race that has the dual attributes of being able to race on the pace (always an advantage at Moonee Valley), and also being no risk to run the trip out strongly (runner-up in the Caulfield Cup last year, and well in the market for the upcoming Melbourne Cup). Interesting race though, and it's not hard to make a case for quite a few runners. With the exception of So You Think's second win, the Cox Plate seems to have become more open in recent times. Over the years I have loved to lay into a hot fav. on the race. I remember that one of the first years I became really keen on racing as a kid was the year Dulcify won by 7 lengths (before sadly breaking down in the Melbourne Cup), and I think I formed the opinion early that it was a great race for top shelf "good things" when Kingston Town won the next three in a row. Proved a very a rewarding strategy over the years, with the likes of Rubiton, Better Loosen Up, Might and Power, Sunline, Makybe Diva all starting around the 4/5 to 2/1 range when they probably should have been heavily odds on.
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Re: Moonee Valley Betting 27/10/2012
Have to agree. Impressive win in the Turnbull and will improve further; Lloyd Williams' horses always peak in major races, especially over the Spring Carnival.Moonee Valley Betting: In an open Cox Plate the tenacious Green Moon looks the reliable betting option -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football My experience with Australian horse racing is that you can certainly make at least $25K-$50K with the corporates before being limited. However, this relates to betting on metrop race days (Saturdays, Wednesdays, public holidays), only taking generic odds products: eg. "best odds"/"top tote" etc. (or occasionally fixed odds that are widely on offer) and rarely betting to profit more than $5K on any individual bet with any individual bookmaker.
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
I'm no tax expert but I do know the ATO has intimidating power. I doubt they'd have much trouble demanding access to betting and bank accounts and any other financial data they wished to investigate. Also, it's risky game to lie to them; it can be considered tax evasion, and for serious amounts that can mean serious jail sentences.So how did the ATO come to know that they are making all this money? Did they force them to reveal their profits? -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
You don't have to declare them at all, unless the ATO has made a ruling that you're a professional or you want to put your hand up and confess to it.So how exactly does it work in Australia? You put your betting profits in your tax return form but they are tax-exempt? -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
I have worked with/for a few professional punters, but never anyone betting within a galaxy of what those guys turn over, so I don't know anymore about how they operate than what I've read. They reputedly account for a significant amount of all money put through Betfair and the totes in Australia. I seen no reason to be skeptical about the figure of $900 million that the tax department is chasing. The issue is very controversial here (as the bulk of the tax seems to be being imposed retrospectively) but the figure is not in dispute. It has had a lot more press than just the few links I've posted: whole television current affairs shows have been devoted to it, and politicians have weighed into the issue. But there has been no hint of controversy from any source about the amount involved. As for professionals who make, say, moderate six figures per annum, my experience is that they spread their bets everywhere, including Centrebet, Sportsbet, BetStar, Sportingbet, Luxbet, Tabcorp, Tattsbet, Tom Waterhouse, Betfair and any number of on-course bookmakers who take phone betting. Part of being a pro is having a good understanding of what kind of betting and at what levels each organisation is likely to tolerate. Betting on major race meetings only and avoiding knocking off fixed odds at the top of the market (especially on steamers) will buy you a lot more longevity. It's not unlimited, but that's what friends, family and "bowlers" (commission agents) are for. :cigarBut you still haven't explained where they bet. As they are supposedly making billions in profit it goes without saying that they are banned from every non-Tote bookmaker on the planet. Pinnacle does not take bets on Australian Horse Racing as far as I know so that would leave only Betfair. But Australian Horse Racing is not a very high-liquidity market in Betfair. The billions in profit just do not add up. -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
Does anyone else feel that pro punters are like looking for big foot?! The legend is there. People have heard stories. One person knows someone that has spoken to someone that saw one once. But alas' date=' they still remain a legend....[/quote'] Have a look at some of the links I've posted above. The guys big enough to be "legends" soon transcend mythic status because they are simply too big to remain anonymous. There are a good many more pro's out there, but they have good reason to remain anonymous, and they can. It is certainly true that only a tiny percentage of punters are professionals, so yeah, most people aren't going to have any direct knowledge of what really goes on. -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
If he really knows what he is doing and hasn't just got lucky, he should be able to build up to four or five times that without any great shift in approach. It's actually much easier for punters at these levels than the publicly known figures I've been mentioning to "pink".I think it depends what you consider a "living". There is a guy I know on another forum who started with £3000, and in August, September and October so far has made £5715 profit. Entirely reasonable to assume he could make it to £6500 by the end of the month. £6500 for 3 months? £26000 per year tax free is, for me, a pretty decent living. In fact, it's more than double what I make after tax in my actual job. I'm not sure if the guy works aswell, or not, but it's reasonable to assume that he could be betting for a living, and therefor a "pro sports bettor". -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
Well, also Betfair. Zeljko is reputedly responsible for a significant chunk of its entire turnover in Australia. Anyway, at their level it goes without saying that putting their money on is not going to be straight forward. They didn't have any rebates or such on their way up though, just some capital that had been accrued from card counting, and computer programs that could beat the horse racing market. There is also some truth to this quote by Billy Walters: “Smart guys want me to bet with them. They want me to bet with them directly, because they want to know what I’m betting on. They take the business and adjust their business accordingly. They factor that in and it ends up becoming a positive relationship for them.” http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=263695 Anyway the point is that these are successful punters too huge to remain anonymous, but if you think there is a total vacuum between these guys and the majority of losing punters, you're living in fantasy land. Personally, I don't have any direct knowledge about, say, the professionals who bet on American sports. But I have no doubt they exist--partly because it is accepted knowledge among serious people who know what they are talking about--and also because, while there may be no one else the size of Billy Walters, he is proof that the odds can be beaten. And for anyone betting, say, tens of thousands rather than the millions a day that he might punt, it's going to be a lot easier. Because some of the techniques he gets up to -- a misdirection bet on the wrong side (the "market manipulation" you alluded to certainly does go on at the highest levels), paying hefty commissions to agents to bet with Asian bookmakers etc. -- must cut into his profits. In Australia, only a tiny percentage of horse racing punters are professionals, but they do exist. Most of them are quietly going about their business making anything from a decent to very comfortable living. You don't have to bet massive stakes to make, say, a couple of hundred grand a year, and while there are occasions when anyone who is winning will be limited by this or that bookmaker, part of being a pro is being shrewd about getting the money on. It's an issue, but it is also often exaggerated. Like I said, a lot depends on how you bet and what you bet on, not just whether you win. I have been betting moderate-pro levels for the first time in my life this year, and I have been too busy to be as subtle as I probably should be about it (I will be treating it more seriously next year), but have only be banned by one bookmaker thus far. Apart from Betfair and the totes, money can be spread around the corporates and the dozens of on-course bookmakers who take bets by phone, and it should hardly come as a surprise that professionals will also use accounts in the names of partners/friends/relatives/commission agents.I think some more information on how exactly they bet is in order. From what I've seen so far they do Tote betting' date=' which doesn't sound very professional-friendly, unless there is heavy market manipulation going on. A quick wikipedia search for his partner turns up that bookmakers offer "significant rebates" on his bets. -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Of course, some of the biggest operators in recent decades migrated to Hong Kong (where there are no issues about getting set, due to the mammoth tote pools). Most notable among these would be Bill Benter and the late great Alan Woods: http://www.themonthly.com.au/alan-woods-and-his-amazing-computer-nags-riches-story-mr-huge-tony-wilson-149
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
For the guys mentioned above it's obviously a major logistical operation, and most of their business goes through Betfair and the totes. At the next level down, the corporate bookies can be used to a point. They are quick to cut people off who bet on low liquidity races or knock off fixed odds that are above the general market; but if you bet on metropolitan races, take their generic "top odds" products and don't win too much on any one bet, there are about six or seven corporate bookies in Australia who'll let you accumulate about 40-50k profit before they limit you. However, when one account closes another can always open in a different name. ;)I include horse racing. Where do they bet?
BBOTD Monday 11th November
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: BBOTD Monday 11th November
WD, ripping early shout at those odds! It was absolutely smashed -- into 9/2. Also has a Derby entry, so the money was likely to be significant when they came for it.