cavello
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Posts posted by cavello
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Cartmel 4.45 Sharp Dresser 2 pts E/W @2/1 with Sportingbet:hope A low level novice hurdle race which is typical for this course. But this course also throw up shocks so I'm not going to stake too high on this selection even at this price. Been running in class 3 hurdles so this does represent a drop in class. The rest of the field contains horses with potential who could spring a surprise. Today going will help our selection as will the sharp track IMO. Based on all this IMO the selection should be priced c6/4-13/8.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bets Outlay to Date = 154 pts Return to Date = 183.17 pts Profit to Date = + 29.17 pts:ok Exchange + Other Bets Outlay to Date = 37 pts Return to Date = 58.43 pts Profit to Date = +21.43 pts:ok Combined Profit to Date = 50.6 pts :ok __________________ Approaching the end of the month and should now finish in front again.:ok Making this the 6th month on the trot for my E/W bet threads Been a hard week for me with some of my selections running very poorly, fortunately I have found some decent winners at 9/2,4/1 and 11/4 all shorten up by a significant amounts so it looks like I do get it right sometimes:lol
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Easy Easy:clap:clap:clap Profit on Bet = 12.6 pts:ok Turned the day and weekend.:drumsE/W Bet Newmarket 4.40 Classic Descent 2 pts E/W @9/2 with Betfred:hope Good form on this course actaully a winner that was disqualified. Rated over 80 on official figures which is usually good enough to place in this class of maiden. If trained on should go close -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
2nd No profit or loss on bet.E/W Bet Curragh 3.00 Finsceal Beo 1 pt E/W @ 4/1 with Paddy Power:hope Top class last spring, looked to to back to near best when 5th in the UAE a couple of months ago. On ORs is rated only 1lb lower then Duke of Marmalade but is getting the fillies allowances of 3lbs which to me indicates this filly may be able to beat the favourite if staying this trip. Trading at 1.75 for the place on Betfair so we may be getting a degree of value based on the market. -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Disaster stalled on grid and things did not get better.:sad Loss on Bet = - 1 ptExchange Bet Monaco GP. I will put any odds and sods bets this summer for Athletics or Grand Prix etc :spankhere in conjunctions with posting on the specialist thread. Heikki Kovalainen (McL) 1 pt @3.3 to Place with Betfair:hope On a track that should suit his shorter wheelbase car(that what my "expert" tells me) this price looks a little long IMO. Obviously a good poistion on the grid required. Just hope he does not crash again:hope -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Unplaced, went to 1,02 to place in running at the 2nd last:sad Went off 5/2 jt fav as well.:sad Loss on Bet = -5 pts:sadExchange+ Bet Fontwell 2.35 Share My Dream 4 pts place only @2.14 with Betfair 1 pt win @6/1 with William Hill:hope Usually runs well in this class of race. The rain and softening going will help her cause. With her low weight plus the rider's allowance gives her a good chance based on ORs -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange+ Bet Fontwell 2.35 Share My Dream 4 pts place only @2.14 with Betfair 1 pt win @6/1 with William Hill:hope Usually runs well in this class of race. The rain and softening going will help her cause. With her low weight plus the rider's allowance gives her a good chance based on ORs
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Newmarket 4.40 Classic Descent 2 pts E/W @9/2 with Betfred:hope Good form on this course actaully a winner that was disqualified. Rated over 80 on official figures which is usually good enough to place in this class of maiden. If trained on should go close
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Curragh 3.00 Finsceal Beo 1 pt E/W @ 4/1 with Paddy Power:hope Top class last spring, looked to to back to near best when 5th in the UAE a couple of months ago. On ORs is rated only 1lb lower then Duke of Marmalade but is getting the fillies allowances of 3lbs which to me indicates this filly may be able to beat the favourite if staying this trip. Trading at 1.75 for the place on Betfair so we may be getting a degree of value based on the market.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
4th:wall Loss on Bet = -2 ptsE/W Bet Stratford 7.20 Southwestern 1 pt E/W @9/2 with William Hll:hope Been running well in high value hunter chases and was "unlucky" when falling in Ireland when leading in a £20K+ race. Previous winner over course and distance. Finished in front of the favourite at Cheltenham in the Foxhunters. The favourite is yet to do the business in a high value race. Take the Stand may be overrated due to his previous form from his younger days. -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
2nd:wall Loss on Bet = - 1 ptExchange Bet Oumeyade 1 pts win @2.3 with Betfair Looks a handicap "cert". We have all seen these lose in the past. Won very easily last night over a longer trip, Down in trip and up in class does not usually suggest a bet. But I'm taking a small bet here because I believe this horse could be rated over 135 in the future and here is running off 107. Still not a mortgage job but worth some interest. -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Stratford 7.20 Southwestern 1 pt E/W @9/2 with William Hll:hope Been running well in high value hunter chases and was "unlucky" when falling in Ireland when leading in a £20K+ race. Previous winner over course and distance. Finished in front of the favourite at Cheltenham in the Foxhunters. The favourite is yet to do the business in a high value race. Take the Stand may be overrated due to his previous form from his younger days.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet Oumeyade 1 pts win @2.3 with Betfair Looks a handicap "cert". We have all seen these lose in the past. Won very easily last night over a longer trip, Down in trip and up in class does not usually suggest a bet. But I'm taking a small bet here because I believe this horse could be rated over 135 in the future and here is running off 107. Still not a mortgage job but worth some interest.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
:clap Won:clap Profit on Bet = 6 .6 pts In front on the day at the moment by 2.6 pts and that the aim.E/W Bet Catterick 2.15 Eijaaz 2 pts E/W @11/4 with Blue Square:hope Very closely rated to the favourite Court of Appeal in races at this course last season and this season. But IMO the faster ground nay just favour my selection. Trading at c1.5 for the place at the moment and this indicates that a degree of value exist. With a field that consists of some strange entrants I have decided to reduce my stake here because of the danger of one or two of these lurkers showing improved form. -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Last :sad Loss on Bet = -2 ptsSingle Bet Beverley 2.25 Froisee 2 pts Win @5/2 with Ladbrokes:hope Been running in much better races then the favourite and the other runners. With the favourite being a front runner should be able to relax and follow and :hope can de delivered with a telling burst of speed. Should be 2/1 IMO so 5/2 represent value IMO. -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Last did not come out of stall and did not try too hard afterwards. Something amiss:sad Loss on Bet = -2 ptsE/W Bet 2,45 Catterick Paddy Jack 1 pt E/W @14/1 with Bet365(BOG):hope A rather difficult race. But my advice is to take a small nterest in Paddy Jack. LTO led and weaken over 7 furlongs. But this horse got a very high dosage figures which suggest the shortest distance should suit better. Obviously not one to get carried away with because no good recent form. But with some of the other fancied runners having not too good draws, may :hope break fast and lead the field a merry dance. -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet Monaco GP. I will put any odds and sods bets this summer for Athletics or Grand Prix etc :spankhere in conjunctions with posting on the specialist thread. Heikki Kovalainen (McL) 1 pt @3.3 to Place with Betfair:hope On a track that should suit his shorter wheelbase car(that what my "expert" tells me) this price looks a little long IMO. Obviously a good poistion on the grid required. Just hope he does not crash again:hope
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Re: Monaco Grand Prix 25th May Heikki Kovalainen (McL) @3.3 to Place with Betfair:hope On a track that should suit his car this price looks a little long IMO. Obviously a good poistion on the grid required. Just hope he does not crash again:hope
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Catterick 2.15 Eijaaz 2 pts E/W @11/4 with Blue Square:hope Very closely rated to the favourite Court of Appeal in races at this course last season and this season. But IMO the faster ground nay just favour my selection. Trading at c1.5 for the place at the moment and this indicates that a degree of value exist. With a field that consists of some strange entrants I have decided to reduce my stake here because of the danger of one or two of these lurkers showing improved form.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet 2,45 Catterick Paddy Jack 1 pt E/W @14/1 with Bet365(BOG):hope A rather difficult race. But my advice is to take a small nterest in Paddy Jack. LTO led and weaken over 7 furlongs. But this horse got a very high dosage figures which suggest the shortest distance should suit better. Obviously not one to get carried away with because no good recent form. But with some of the other fancied runners having not too good draws, may :hope break fast and lead the field a merry dance.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Single Bet Beverley 2.25 Froisee 2 pts Win @5/2 with Ladbrokes:hope Been running in much better races then the favourite and the other runners. With the favourite being a front runner should be able to relax and follow and :hope can de delivered with a telling burst of speed. Should be 2/1 IMO so 5/2 represent value IMO.
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Profit on Bet = 2 pts:ok Profit on Day = 1 pt :okAdd to above Ask Oscar 0.5 pt E/W @25/1 with BetDirect(BOG):ok -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
Loss on above bets = -1 ptE/W Bets Stratford 6.10 The first race at Stratford looks to give E/W value hunters some hope. All 3 of my selcetion either have reasonable form in higher grade or form at this level plus all appear to be able to acto on a sharp track and firmer going. Modest stakes only. Theocritus 1 pt E/W @15/2 with William Hill:sad Commemoration Day 0.5 pts E/W @16/1 with BetFred:sad Tanners Court 0.5 pts E/W @25/1 with William Hill:ok -
Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Add to above Ask Oscar 0.5 pt E/W @25/1 with BetDirect(BOG):hope
Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008
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Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Redcar 4.25 Tangerine Tree 1/2 pt E/W @12/1 with Sportingbet:hope Reasonable form at rated just about the level to place/win a poor maiden race. But this bet is still more based on market comparsions.