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cavello

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    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bets Outlay to Date = 181 pts Return to Date = 209.08 pts Profit to Date = + 28.08 pts Exchange + Other Bets Outlay to Date = 39 pts Return to Date = 58.43 pts Profit to Date = +19.43 pts Combined Profit to Date = +47.51 pts yield again in excess of 20% Very poor night marked out for me with Wizard Dust(5/1 to 5/2) falling when staying on and looking (to me at least) the likely winner and a 66/1 shot getting in the place money at Newcastle. Actually for me the worse days betting for the month:sad Still can't moan too much with over £450 profit to £10 per point. Plus for my soccer followers winning somewhat more. For my combined followers they are yet to have a losing month this year. Still I did make some major mistakes tonight and below are my mistskes: 1. Allegretto first run of season in a very difficult to win race. Should have know this at my age. Don't guess:spankabout fitness in competitive races. 2. Backing 3 horse in the Newcatle race when clearly from my form analysis only the 2nd and 3rd favs could be considered viable winners. Don't try to cover every angle with a belt and braces job it will cost you profit in the long run:spank However can't find fault with my other selections.:\ Therefore in future will now limit E/W selection to just 2 imax in any given race unless a 16+ handicap (rarely bet in these). This should increase yield in the long run. O.K. Sorry about tonight:cry Hope nobody lost too much.:hope I will be back this weekend seeking value bets in many non-handicaps on the flat on Saturday and over the jumps on Sunday. We are shortly coming into the period of the season when races are dominated by the first three in the betting especially in maiden and novce races so I expect to be putting up some E/W doubles shortly. These can often give us some nice touches in the summer months.

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    E/W BETS Newcastle 7.35 Gulchs Rose 2 pt E/W @ 7/2 with BetDirect(BOG):hope Maha Duba 1 pt E/W @6/1 with Bet365(BOG):hope Josephine Malines 1/2 pt E/W @11/1 with BetFred:hope In a race which looks to contain a favourite that could be overrated a standard bet on the 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites. All of which have reasonable relatives and some hopeful form.
    Only one placed (a 66/1 getting placed:wall) Loss on Bet 5.6 pts:sad

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    Exchange+ Bet Wetherby 6.55 Norman Beckett 1 pt @7/2 with BetFred:hope + 1 pt place only @2.18 with Betfair:hope The favourite is actually consider inferior on official ratings. Petra Stars may be a soft ground winter horse and Terenzium is well held on collateral formlines. The ditance of the race may be a problem for our selection but got good form over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the very sharp Fontwell track. Wetherby is considered to be on the sharp side. So IMO Norman Beckett is a litttle overpriced at 7/2 and a fairer assessment would be 11/4 IMO. Only a small stake however.
    Unplaced Loss on Bet = -2 pts

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    E/W BET Wetherby 7.25 Wizard Dust 1 pt E/W @5/1 with SportingBet The favourite Fourty Acres looks the obvious pick in this novice hurdle But with him being odds-0n there appears to be some value with ourselection. Been running consistently in class 4 hurdle races which have been marginally better class the the 2nd favs efforts in Class 5 races. The favourite beat very little LTO and may be a little too short.
    Fell would have at least placed:sad Loss on Bet = -2 pts

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BETS Newcastle 7.35 Gulchs Rose 2 pt E/W @ 7/2 with BetDirect(BOG):hope Maha Duba 1 pt E/W @6/1 with Bet365(BOG):hope Josephine Malines 1/2 pt E/W @11/1 with BetFred:hope In a race which looks to contain a favourite that could be overrated a standard bet on the 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites. All of which have reasonable relatives and some hopeful form.

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange+ Bet Wetherby 6.55 Norman Beckett 1 pt @7/2 with BetFred:hope + 1 pt place only @2.18 with Betfair:hope The favourite is actually consider inferior on official ratings. Petra Stars may be a soft ground winter horse and Terenzium is well held on collateral formlines. The ditance of the race may be a problem for our selection but got good form over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the very sharp Fontwell track. Wetherby is considered to be on the sharp side. So IMO Norman Beckett is a litttle overpriced at 7/2 and a fairer assessment would be 11/4 IMO. Only a small stake however.

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BET Wetherby 7.25 Wizard Dust 1 pt E/W @5/1 with SportingBet The favourite Fourty Acres looks the obvious pick in this novice hurdle But with him being odds-0n there appears to be some value with ourselection. Been running consistently in class 4 hurdle races which have been marginally better class the the 2nd favs efforts in Class 5 races. The favourite beat very little LTO and may be a little too short.

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    E/W Bet Huntingham 7.10 Cortinas 3 pts E/W @11/10 with Bet365(BOG):hope Rated at 120 OR. The 2nd favourite of A King was beaten 20l LTO while the 3rd fav is yet to race in the UK. If they are fancied we will get a bigger price si I see this as a value bet
    :clap:clapVery easy. Outclassed the field.:clap:clap Profit on Bet = 3.96 pts :clapProfit on Day = 8.96 pts:clap :clap:clap:clapForza del Cavello:clap:clap:clap

    Punters will be hit by Rule4 increases.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punters will be hit by Rule4 increases. The Rule 4 does favour the punter at the moment. But who would now bet SP with the bookmakers except when backing against an odds-on chance. In the long term bookmakers are finished with the mid range punters who bet on horseracing. The only people using them apart from E/W value seekers are the old,the non-computer owner or those wth low IQ and of course the high rollers that fund the profits of Ladbrokes*(a company I have shares in:loon). When was the last time you went in a betting shop. Full of friut machine gamblers:wall, layabouts:wall and the old and lonely.:sad *Based on the share investing techniques of Professor O'Higgins.

    New systems for Betfair

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: New systems for Betfair

    Your link is bad but I am not going to pay for this unless somebody I can trust says it's good quality. I did a trick somehow and got a horse racing system for free. And I think it costs 50 pounds.(Give a shout if you want to take a look.) I may eventually pay in the future cuz I can't use paypal now but it's not a problem now. And the system is not what it was supposed to be. I think betfair wouldn't let money leaking out of these games. In the big picture, they're getting greedier every day. The exchange games offer the realistic probabilities in the terms of odds but due to comission you can't beat the house long term.
    Your not playing against a house but other punters. In actual fact if bettting at c2.0 the reduction on ROI is 2.5%.

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    E/W Bet Cartmel 4.45 Sharp Dresser 2 pts E/W @2/1 with Sportingbet:hope A low level novice hurdle race which is typical for this course. But this course also throw up shocks so I'm not going to stake too high on this selection even at this price. Been running in class 3 hurdles so this does represent a drop in class. The rest of the field contains horses with potential who could spring a surprise. Today going will help our selection as will the sharp track IMO. Based on all this IMO the selection should be priced c6/4-13/8.
    :clap:clap Just held on :loon Rule 4 deduction :\ Profit on Bet = 3.6 pts:ok Profit on Day = 1.6 pts:ok

    Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

    E/W Bet Redcar 4.25 Tangerine Tree 1/2 pt E/W @12/1 with Sportingbet:hope Reasonable form at rated just about the level to place/win a poor maiden race. But this bet is still more based on market comparsions.
    HORSEBF PLBF WIN BOOK ODDS% EDGE
    TANGERRINE TREES2.8013.0013.0021.43%
    May be more value bets in this race later today.
    Unplaced Loss on Bet = -1 pt
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