itooam
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Posts posted by itooam
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Re: NeuroTennis - high confidence ZaletoFF not Zaleto :@ lol :rollin
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Re: NeuroTennis - high confidence Is there any particular reason for this strange staking system? I.e., will there be more value to the bets where you risk half of your bank?
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Re: NeuroTennis - high confidence I like your optimism. Is there any particular reason for this strange staking system? I.e., will there be more value to the bets were you risk half of your bank?
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Re: addresses of english and scottish clubs Here is a useful site: http://www.footballderbies.com
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Re: NeuroTennis Hi, I don;t have icq as would like to ask you a question - could you private message me instead (I can't as don't have 50 posts)
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Re: Non Runner Question Thanks for the response. ...that is a real shame - an extra consideration for laying systems - (if there aren't enough already)! :(
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Was wondering if any of you know whether or not there is a rule that says something like "all non-runners must be declared at least one hour before the off"? The reason I ask is because if you want to lay a horse (not the fav) as you think the fav is most likely to win then it would be disappointing if the fav became a non-runner meaning your layed horse is now the fav.
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Re: Generally Accepted Lay %'ages The betfair data releases did stop for a while - but have now continued again. Though now they are downloadable weekly - so a bit of a pain to import if you haven't done it for a while! After reading the comments from Maria and Slapdash I ran a little test to see how Maria's system would have performed for her first 140 races using betfair starting prices. I was suprised to find that it was a hefty loss (whereas Maria had a nice profit). I then checked betfair prices (at Maria's post times) to ensure no trickery was going on. I should never have doubted you Maria :) - all was fine. This revelation emphasised the importance of getting on at the right odds. I wonder if the market becomes more "efficient" the closer to the off you get? I would be extremely interested if anyone has done any studies into this - or can point me in the right direction? (Sorry Maria I was trying to reverse engineer your system :$. Looks like you were using more than one system as I couldn't find any patterns to your selections!?)
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Re: Generally Accepted Lay %'ages This is the exact reason for using the betfair data for testing the final 2 years - though some would argue 2 years data is of little value (depends what type of systems you write - I prefer small yield but high turnover). Ultimately it could be argued that using the exact odds as given free from betfair is again subjective in its use as they can change on a second by second basis. With this in mind I would still be happier using the estimates than going in blind? But I understand both your views - I believe you are giving good advice - that of being aware of the pitfalls in using avg odds prices for testing purposes.
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Re: Generally Accepted Lay %'ages I did ask the same question a while back on another forum: http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?t=6439&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=30 If that link gets removed go to flatstats messageboard and click on Systems Testing Forum then click "Using SP Odds for Forecasting" (page 2 at time of writing) some useful formulae in there. Note I tend to test a system for last 15 years with rp data and I have created a lookup table (rather) than a formula that has been created using BF SP odds versus rp SP odds. I know it isn't an exact science but as close as you will ever get... Once I am happy that it is producing consistent profit I then test it seperately with bf data.
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Re: Generally Accepted Lay %'ages I would agree with Maria - but don't forget you do have free access to betfair data if you can be bothered downloading it all - I had to buy a 300 gig hardisk to help store it in sqlserver. Probably will take 120+ gig to store in any reasonable state (though I downloaded "other" sport too). Anyway, that will give you 2 years to play with.
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Re: NeuroTennis ZaletoFF - your NN is most impressive - do you have an upto date excel spreadsheet of you results? Looked at your original one and figured you could exponentially increase your profit by percentage staking 7% of current bank. Would be interested if this figure of 7% would still be same with extra months data. One question if I may, where do you get your tennis data from?
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Re: The Tipsters System Unfortunately, with work commitments I haven't been able to follow this -though perhaps I've been lucky with the bad spell. Though - I have been going through my own bad spell with a football system I have! :( I agree that that the most likely cause of value would be because of too many people wanting to back the same horse pushing the price down - reason I originally liked this system. Is perhaps wise, paper trading until more confidence!? I wish you the best with this system - I would have continued but with my other system screwing up I have no alternative but to try and find one I know is reliable with the data I have. On another note, I see no reason why this system long term would not create a profit - after all - a simple measure would be comparing the amount won by winning tipsters to the none winning tipsters (quite a difference) - athough, I suppose this depends on the average prices the tipsters tip at (given the cut off point of odd 4) Good luck - I will follow with interest.
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Re: The Tipsters System there goes my theory - perhaps only valid if enough people on it - i.e., pricewise.
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Re: The Tipsters System ...weather looks bad everywhere in uk except London...
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Re: The Tipsters System Thanks Maria, I think today will be an interesting day for the favourites as the weather is truely awful (in the Midlands). I know lots of horses run better to differing "goings" but I expect the tipsters cannot take the weather into account given the amount of time to get their predictions printed. Anyway, was a just a thought I had.
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Re: HT/FT betting,could it be profitable? nice start toninozg :D I had the intention of backing Manu pre game but when I saw the odds 1.35 I thought no way! They should have been around 1.6 minimum in my opinion. Anyway, was with you on this one, but with insurance on manu/manu - that gave odds of around 2.2. Sometimes do the reverse too i.e., insurance on draw/win instead (depends who is playing)
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Re: HT/FT betting,could it be profitable? Good luck with this - I have used ht/ft with good results last year esp for hot favourites. I.e., instead of obtaining odds 1.3 for a chelsea home win you can often back Chelsea/Chelsea (for no win no loss - insurance) and draw/chelsea. As long as you are selective with the games I think there is lots of value in this area. Often the largely odds on fav isn't as good as the public perceives.
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Re: The Tipsters System ...Massey results would make this system's recent results sound even more promising. BTW - we have had some very good weather (sunny) this September - which seems unusual for this time of year, so perhaps this explains the strange results regarding high % of fav ROI (with perhaps firmer than usual going for September?)?
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Re: The Tipsters System Well I missed Sat and Today - looks like I timed it perfectly (-30 yday and +30 today). I'm still in profit by 9 points since I joined in, so am more than happy with results at moment. We were all expecting the correction.
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Re: The Tipsters System Having thought more about this. It is most likely that the bf app is trying to refresh too many markets which possibly takes longer than the minute required to place the bets? I have not looked at this program but perhaps you can specify a setting i.e., "take any price after the following time" and perhaps use a 3 minute buffer instead? Otherwise I would expect what Pinhofap says regarding running more than one instance of the program and having a small number of markets in each would potentially get round this problem - from the coding I have done wih the API it has all been synchronous (not sure if it can be programmed asynchronously? - Don't have time now to check) what this means is it can't refresh two markets simultaneously i.e., it has to wait for one to refresh before refreshing the next. Regarding the login problems - haven't a clue why that would happen?
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Re: NeuroTennis Just had a look at that link - shame he doesn't publish odds too? Success rate (in my opinion) is worth jack if the odds you are getting are less than the probabilites you have estimated.
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Re: NeuroTennis Thanks for advice ZalettoFF - I will have to have a look on Amazon and get me some "NN for Dummies" books :) London Calling - your system may be identifying favourites but have you looked at the general difference in odds to your neural network output probabilities (I am presuming it will return a floating point number as the success rate for each horse in the race - each one tested individually) and then success rate? You only need a very small edge to make a profit (that elusive value - whether fav or not). Though, this is how I presume you would use NN's and I don't wish to pretend to know much about them in the real world - only the case studies and examples I have read.
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Re: The Tipsters System It suprises me that the bf software is so unreliable given that they provide an api and should know about all the glitches etc. I have been writing a program using their api to make these bets for me - and I have almost got it bug free - though I don't want to give it away here - not because I am selfish, but because if I have made the smallest mistake I wouldn't want to be responsible for you good folk losing money. I'm sure if these bugs are reported to betfair then they will do their best to fix them?
NeuroTennis - high confidence
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: NeuroTennis - high confidence I couldn't resist finding out what he said so translated it on Bablefish: "Salute!! Respect to you... continue in the same spirit!! P.s. Ksta... even number and in you is opened constantly... there is conversation." On another note, well done ZaletoFF you are doing a great job. I still don't quite understand your staking strategy? As you always treat your second bet with less confidence due to staking less? The other thread is looking very good, well done.