nickf88
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Posts posted by nickf88
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday 21st May 3:00 Newcastle - Ma Kellys - 1pt Win 20/1 Bet365 Seems to run well at Newcastle, and has ran over further than the mile he'll run over today. Wearing cheekpieces for the first time so hopefully can help. Ran over 1 mile 2 at this course in April, plugging on into 5th but the pace in the race was strong, Flying Applause trying to make all from the start and was in front by 8 lengths or so for most of the race. Drop back in trip and off a lower mark today, hopefully this soft ground today will suit a horse who could potentially stay further if the pace in the race was suitable and today's races at Newcastle will take some winning with the conditions.
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Re: BBOTD > Monday 20th May 4:10 Redcar - Partner - 1pt Win 14/1 Hills Seems to like a galloping track and won impressively last season in May at Thirsk in a higher class race off a 7 pound higher mark, doing enough at the end of that race to suggest it had a little more in hand. Conditions shouldn't be a problem today, decent handling and hopefully can go close whether it tracks the leaders or is held up as he has won from both styles of running in his career. Verinco the front runner drawn further away so maybe will be held up and come late.
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 30th April
If that isn't overturned in your favor then it's genuinely one of the worst decisions I've ever seen from the stewards.W7.45 Jacks Grey e/w 20/1 Bet365 I'll go for this one in the same race as BH. the horse returns to hurdling after a relatively unsuccessful spell over fences. The trainer has been in cracking form this month and hopefully he has this horse ready after a 4 month break. Perhaps the trainer has been waiting for the better ground and I certainly think this ground will be much more to the horses liking. The horses only win was over fences but that was at this trip on good ground and I can see the break and switch to hurdles meaning that the horse becomes competitive again. -
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 30th April 8:15 Worcester - Ron - 1pt Win 20/1 Stan James All or nothing with this horse today, but seeing as the trainer has the favorite and has a good record at the course I'm chancing his 'outsider' at a price with a capable 7 pound claimer on top to offset near top-weight. This horse was well supported on his handicap debut over hurdles last time out, however the ground went against him that day and his price drifted out and he ran a stinker, clearly not enjoying the ground. This is a poor race today, a drop in class potentially and 20/1 looks too big if he's suited to a drop back in trip and firmer ground.
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3:50 Ayr - Relax - 1pt Win 33/1 Bet365 No alerts on a busy Saturday which is a surprise so only small bets for the Scottish National. Do fancy this one though despite it not racing over the trip it ran into one over 3 mile 2 in Pete The Feat plugging on but well ahead of decent stayers. Decent fork before pulling up last time out but small break since and could be very competitive for a shrewd yard off a low weight today.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 17th 4:20 Beverley - Last Bid - 1pt Win 20/1 Bet365 Tim Easterby's horses seem to be coming to a bit of form in the past few days and hopefully this is the time to be on side with Last Bid here. The filly was a very progressive 2 year old in 2011, winning 3 times over 5 furlongs after 2 very decent runs in maidens at this track. She was even tried in two listed races that year, a length 2nd in the first attempt. Since then though it's been a decline in form, but it's worth noting this filly has only once raced on her favorable conditions which seem to be good/good to firm ground and over 5 furlongs since 2011, and that was in May 2012, a 2nd placed finish at York off a mark of 92. Tomorrow she'll be racing off 87 and with stable jockey Allan taking the ride again, the filly getting her optimum conditions, she looks overpriced to me at 20/1 although the race is competitive. Only slight concern is it's her reappearance race and she didn't run great last season on her reappearance but that was on soft ground which will not have suited.
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Don't follow it a lot but that's been the case in a fair few races I've seen lately on ATR where he's had favourites, especially at Dundalk.Anyone been following irish racing recently ? What's the position with O'brien this season..............in the last few seasons a lot of his horses have been needing a run and you could find good bets by opposing him early season -
Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Poppy Bond definitely one to follow this year I think when they're trying. Good form in the past, few runs into it to get it fit then it'll win a few races I'm sure. You're on the right track with it mate, chin up! :ok
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Fantastic winner mate well done ! Especially in such a hard race to call, nice drift as well !!4.50 Kempton Teen Ager win @ 9/1 Bet365 Paul Burgoyne is in good form at the moment and he has a strong hand in this race with this horse and West Leake. I imagine Jimmy Quinn would have had the choice out of the two, which to ride and he is on my selection. Teen Ager has been in cracking form recently and has often ran better than his finishing place would suggest. You have to go back to 2009 to find when this horse was last successful off around this mark but I think a return to Kempton will suit him. He is a very powerful traveller and is capable of a very quick finish. I fancy his running style will take him deep into the race still on the bridle if they go a good clip up front. It's just a case of what he finds when coming off the bridle but in recent runs he has found plenty when coming off a strong pace. -
Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I apologise if it sounded like I was trying to show off that I backed the National winner, that wasn't my intention. My intention of my post was to say that the horse wasn't a 80/1-100/1 or 66/1 shot in my opinion, hence why I backed it. If it had fallen, pulled up or won like it did I still would have thought it represented a value bet in a very competitive and tricky race and the fact it won was a huge slice of luck.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
Going to sound like huge aftertiming but will post up bet slip to prove it if necessary but I too was on Aurora's Encore, one of only two bets in the race along with Ballabriggs. Chose Aurora's Encore because it was never a 66/1 shot, the 80/1 I took with Bet365 and later the 100/1 quoted with Stan James and Bet365 Saturday morning. Didn't go mad on it myself because the national is such a lottery in terms of having the best horse in the race potentially which gets brought down, 1 bad jump and it falls etc but I don't think it should have been any higher than 33/1. I watched it get pipped on the line of the Scottish National and thought to follow it next jumps season considering the fact the trainer/connections would want to get it's mark down for another tilt at the SN at least. Low and behold it's been given soft races, terrible rides and inadequate trips and gets into the Grand National off near featherweight. To win a national by 9 lengths against some decent types means it's been held back for the race without a shadow of a doubt in my mind. Lucky for me I thought like connections this time, plotting something and it's come off for them massively.So staying on over 4mile in the scottish National last year when just getting pipped on the post on good ground and now carring 6lb less for the National isn't good enough form to warrant a selection then? -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
:rollinWouldn't be surprised, would shut me right up !he will probably win the NAtional now :) -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Not knowing Nicholls personally I won't comment but in regards to his horses I fully agree, and the loss of his 2 right hand men within 2 seasons must hurt. He hasn't really fired them in like he normally always does and it will be interesting to see how he goes next year considering Dan Skelton is leaving now too. Henderson on the other hand has so many top class prospects, as does Mullins.Nicholls really is struggling now isn't he, ive been thinking what horses does he have in the stable that are any good going forward? Henderson has a much stronger string as does Mullins. Nicholls has lost both HArry Fry and also DAn Skelton will leave in May to pursue a training career. Fry took a number of owners with him,i wonder how many fell out with Nicholls as Clive Smith did. The story i have heard about Smith / Nicholls is that the guy is egotistical and doesnt suffer anyone else's opinion other than his own. Its a shame as i cant see what he has in the locker for next year. -
Re: Rio's Racing Diary Great read as usual Rio, always pop in and read what you've put up mate keep it up! Sorry to read about them thieving again with the R4's though, needs to be stopped as it's stealing, simple and plain. Great winner though, and have to agree with you about My Tent or Yours, thought it beat nothing yesterday and won't be rushing out to back it when it competes against better horses next season. Good luck with the R4 complaint, hope you can get your money back :hope
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7:30 Wolverhampton - Tyfos - 1pt Win 12/1 Stan James Apologies for short write up as I'm in work but this horse remains unexposed over the 5 here at Wolves, going close in his only attempt at the trip losing to Royal Bajan and Triple Dream by half a length. Had a few runs since over inadequate trips, 2 pound better off with Triple Dream today after carrying 2 pound more in that race. 12/1 looks too big although the favourite takes a big chunk of the market up and I'm not 100% convinced it wants the fast 5 furlongs. Much more value at 12's with my selection for me.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day 4th April 5:25 Aintree - Hollow Tree - 1pt Win 40/1 Stan James Worth a punt at these odds for a horse who's best form has been on a sounder surface although has won on soft ground in the past. Today's drying ground should be a big help for this horse to get today's trip, looked like he wouldn't stay at his only previous attempt in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick but I'm chancing a return to a flat track will help this horse go close today. His mark has dropped since running three fantastic races from December 2011 to March 2012, beating Countrywide Flame and running him close again achieving a mark of 142 which has stuck with the horse for a long time, the handicapper seeming hard to relent and drop his mark despite some poor runs. Now he gets in this race off 135 with Maguire back on board, drying ground - I'm hoping we see a much more improved showing today and 40/1 looks big despite the concern over the trip today.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 3rd April 4:00 Lingfield - Barachiel - 1pt Win 5/1 Bet365 Think this horse is overpriced in this 2 mile contest today at 5's. Ran very well last time out over C+D, finishing 4th, 2 lengths off the winner but in a much stronger contest. Today it drops into class 5 race and with Richard Hughes booked, I'm hoping it's going for it today. Field on paper doesn't look as strong as last time out, and with better handling coming into the race late from rear (if ridden like last time out, tends to be prominent in it's races over shorter though) I'm hoping it goes close today and ends it's maiden tag.
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Re: The PL Nag Me List ~ Flat Season Foxy Music - Trained by Eric Alston Dropping like a stone in the weights and although only has 4 career wins and is now a 9 year old horse, I think this horse will strike at some point this season, possibly on it's reappearance race. Last season came back from a 172 day break off a mark of 87 at Nottingham and lost by a shoulder to a horse rated 105 carrying the same weight. Has form on soft ground so if running on that ground should be in the mix. Last run was at Southwell which wouldn't have suited, 0 wins from 10 runs on the AW (2nd once in those 10 runs only decent form) and it's last run on turf was off a mark of 85. If it runs on reappearance off a mark of 80-82 perhaps I hope it may go close in a 5 furlong sprint at Chester perhaps (has good form at that course).
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Didn't go too mad on it in fairness but depressing all the same, race over before a furlong lol. Winner did it well though, ground suited but that's got 10-15 pounds in hand if Ellison got that back to its old ability.
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Jesus Christ Samantha Bell needs retraining lol!!
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Re: The Trainers Thread
Gambled it last time out at Southwell, making money both timesBeen mentioned before, but have a look at the 2.30 wolves Shawkantango, Derek Shaw. The horse was put in at fav this morning, and all morning and up to the race could not be given away, out to 10/1 on the off, Regular with this horse. But the punters never had a chance backing this today, Have a look at the jockey on the head on, the total lack of movement, ensuring he is slow away, and being in last place in a few yards. I laid on the place market, the best bit of business on a lay you will ever see..Thanks Mr Shaw, Long may you continue cheating with this horse.:ok -
Re: Doncaster Thread Can't wait for this meeting either, in work for it so won't be able to watch it live but will be having a few bets definitely. On forecast prices I'd be ecstatic to get the 16's ATR pricing up Viva Ronaldo for the 4:10 tomorrow. Goes well fresh, real mudlark after winning in some boggy conditions at Chester last season over 7 furlongs. Had a lot of racing since that win but given a break over the winter, mark has come right down and 7 pound claimer on board tomorrow.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Thought the same myself just watching the race, no money invested personally but put this horse into my alerts for next time because I thought Culhane had given it the softest ride possible, 3 small slaps just off the final bend and hands and heels ridden for most of the straight, never urgent on it at all.2.45 Ling Jo Hughes, Paul Blockley, Tony PULHANE..wow, Annalay My Darling...What a drift pre race..3.75 - 8.0, in two mins,, in a 5 horse race Not a word said from ATR, take a look at his ride turning for home, stiff as a board in the saddle, all those place lays landed. Blockley and Pulhane,,should have never ever be allowed back into the game, corruption is deep in their blood. I did not have a penny invested, but anyone just in the game, stay away from this phoney trilogy.:ok -
Re: BB0TD Tuesday 12th March 2013 - It's Time. 8:20 Wolverhampton - Moral Issue - 1pt Win 20/1 Stan James Noticed this horse has been entered in a few 7 furlong races at this track the past few weeks but been a non runner around two or three times, been poorly drawn in all three of those races and today gets a better draw in 6. Made all in a 7 furlong race in 2011 and hopefully with blinkers fitted can try and do the same today off a lower mark. Stays further than the 7 having won over the extended mile here too so can hopefully stay on today from the front. Worth a punt at the odds.
Flat Racing Tuesday 21st May
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 21st May 3:00 Newcastle - Ma Kellys - 1pt Win 20/1 Bet365 Seems to run well at Newcastle, and has ran over further than the mile he'll run over today. Wearing cheekpieces for the first time so hopefully can help. Ran over 1 mile 2 at this course in April, plugging on into 5th but the pace in the race was strong, Flying Applause trying to make all from the start and was in front by 8 lengths or so for most of the race. Drop back in trip and off a lower mark today, hopefully this soft ground today will suit a horse who could potentially stay further if the pace in the race was suitable and today's races at Newcastle will take some winning with the conditions.