What a race this proves to be, one of the best in recent times. It should be a great spectacle and a case can be made for many of the runners making it a fascinating betting heat. But from a betting point of view I'm taking a different approach and almost by process of elimination, I have found myself a very strong selection.
So by focusing on the main 6 principles that head the market, Djakadam who was a good second in the race last year and would surely have to have a excellent chance now a year older at the age of 7. He ran well first time out this season over 2m4f in the John Durkan at Punchestown, beating Valseur Lido & Gilgamboa easily. He was then installed at 7/2 favourite for this race after the King George chase had been run. With this horse seemingly having the perfect profile and 'ticking every box'. But the prep race went far from plan when the horse and Walsh took a bad looking fall for no apparent reason, sent off 4/7 fav at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase. It has completely shaken up the market and the prep couldn't have gone much worse. Initially after the fall of Djakadam being 7/2 favourite for the Gold Cup I was expecting a possible overreaction in the betting to make him more of a prospect. Maybe 8/1 or 9/1 but instead he's still strong at 5/1 and I couldn't be backing that at the price. Taking in to account the stats for a horse that has previously failed to win the Gold Cup & trying to comeback and do it after a last time out fall would be a huge negative.
Don Cossack is in the warm order at the head of the market and was imperious when slamming a good field in the Melling Chase at Aintree last April. And then again just after when beating Djakadam, Road to Riches & Cue Card impressively in the Punchestown Gold Cup. He seems an awkward horse to me though, I backed him in the King George on Boxing Day. He never seemed to be comfortable in the race and then took a fall at the second last when looking lively. Maybe the track didn't suit him and play to his strengths. For me that was disappointing. He has won his prep race since then and connections aren't sure whether to use headgear on him or not. But besides from that it's the Cheltenham record that puts me off having been beat in two festivals already, including falling in an RSA. He stayed on strongly in the last years Ryanair to nab third, albeit he was already beaten. On that basis and the fact his jumping can has looked off at Cheltenham before, I can pass on him at the 4/1 mark
Vautour has the perfect record around Cheltenham and is a 'spring horse'. He's obviously better at Cheltenham and going left handed and I do think he'll improve from his narrow King George defeat. In my opinion the horse is almost too quick and flashy for the test of the Gold Cup. I think Vautour is an excellent horse but his distance looks to be between 2m - 3m and he would win the Ryanair Chase and have an outstanding chance in the Champion Chase. But 3 and 1/4 miles and a big hill, I can't see him staying.
Cue Card has come back a new horse this year winning his 3 chase starts along the way. Taking the Betfair Chase & the King George, the form is in the book. He also acts around Cheltenham being a multiple winner here. He comes here with a similar profile to Silviniaco Conti last year who was sent off favourite for the Gold Cup and didn't seem to stay. Now Cue Card has never raced over this extended distance, not saying that's a bad thing, but where stamina really comes to the fore and I just can't see it being a positive to him. I wouldn't take away anything from him if he were to win but from a betting point of view I can't have him.
Smad Place must have a decent chance in this unique test having powered away with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cotswold Chase from the front. But he's never won a grade 1 and has seemingly come up short every time, included this seasons King George VI (4th) and that would be a negative.
That at leaves me with the Willie Mullins trained Don Poli. He's won 5 out of his 6 chase starts, including 3 Grade1 chase wins, he's a good jumper albeit not the flashy type. He basically goes on any ground. He's also got the 100% Cheltenham record similar to stablemate Vautour, having won the Martin Pipe and the RSA Chase. I was impressed by how he won the RSA Chase last year, with his jumping bringing him right into it and then powering up the hill, ears pricked and ran right into the line when others were tiring. Now that race hasn't worked out well in terms of form, but imagine there was an extra furlong that day, he would've absolutely bolted up. He wasn't stopping at the line that day that's for sure. His only defeat came at Punchestown last year where I don't believe he showed his true running, he needs time in-between races and that might have come too soon. He narrowly won the Lexus at Leopardstown at Christmas and on the form that wouldn't be good enough here but he looked to me like he'd only just got going when getting up to win. I think the horse has some engine and having proved his love for Cheltenham and the hill it is a big positive. He's never raced beyond the 3miles before, neither have most of his rivals, but once they turn in for home and it's new territory for the horses. I expect he will be the one to relish the stamina test, and provided he's with them at the turn in at the bottom of the hill, I don't see him being beaten. He will run up the hill while the other horses tire and battle all the way to the line.
Of the others at bigger prices, last years third Road To Riches would have an each way chance if the ground came up good. And Valseur Lido could improve for the trip and should be running here but since the owners also have both Dons, they'll likely break them up into the Ryanair.
Verdict: Don Poli 6/1 with StanJames rates as a strong 5 star selection.
