Mirage
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Posts posted by Mirage
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Most Receiving Yards – 0.5pt e/w Dez Bryant @ 10/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3) There’s no need to go in to much detail about Dez Bryant’s credentials. He has recorded over 1,000 yards in each of the past 3 seasons and came up with crucial plays almost every time the situation demanded them in 2014. The reason this price appeals to me so much is because of the way the Cowboys went about their business in the off-season. Throughout the 2014 season they consistently relied on DeMarco Murray and Bryant to come up with the big plays. Murray exploited the good work of the O-line time-after-time, recording some big numbers along the way. He left Dallas for Philadelphia and for some reason the Cowboys decided not to replace class with class. This means that Romo will be expected to pass his way out of trouble more often this season and whilst I am not convinced he is the man for the pressure situations, I am convinced that Bryant will get enough touches of the ball to pass the 1,000 mark again. Bryant got paid this off-season and hopefully, come the end of term, he’ll bring us in a nice winner.
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Most Rushing Yards – 0.5pt e/w LeSean McCoy @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3) In 2015 DeMarco Murray blew the competition away in this category. He was unstoppable behind that Cowboys O-line and ended up being clear at the top by a few hundred yards. This year I have opted for a guy who has a lot of expectation on his shoulders. LeSean McCoy is without doubt one of the best RBs in the league. In 4 of the last 5 years he has rushed for over 1,000 yards and he probably would have done so in 2012 had he not missed 4 games (he rushed for 840 yards in the 12 games he did feature in). McCoy was 3rd in this market last season and he’ll surely get as many carries, if not more, this time around. The Buffalo Bills are without a good QB and because of this, as well as the lack of depth at RB, we can be confident that McCoy will get a lot of reps. Having been dumped by the Eagles in the off-season, McCoy will no doubt want to prove any doubters wrong and at this price I am happy to get on him doing so. Note: There is some doubt over McCoy’s participation in Week 1 but looking at their schedule I still think this price has some value in it.
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Super Bowl Outright - 1pt win Green Bay Packers @ 7/1 with Ladbrokes To win the Super Bowl you need a very good QB and this rules out over half of the field immediately. The likes of the Cowboys, Broncos and Steelers all have top QBs but I've discounted those sides for a variety of reasons. Dallas have left me scratching my head by not replacing Murray. Yes, they have a great O-line but they still need a top RB to take advantage of that. To lose so many yards and not bring in a suitable replacement is baffling. Romo will be under more pressure this term without a top RB and I'm not convinced he'll be able to handle it. There's been plenty of talk about Manning taking less reps this season but that isn't enough to convince me he'll be able to perform consistently in the latter half of the season. Reducing his workload should help but the guy is still another year older and I have no reason to think his body will last the distance. The Steelers were very tempting but I also like the Ravens and the Bengals in their division. They could get through to the play-offs with 9 wins but their schedule is full of games that could go either way and the price isn't good enough to suck me in. The final shortlist was made up of the Patriots, Colts, Packers and Seahawks. I don't subscribe to the opinion that the Patriots will have it tough in the AFC East. Yes, the Jets and the Bills have upgraded their rosters but they are both still lacking in the QB position. The Dolphins should have a good year but a lack of difference makers on offense could cost them. The loss of Revis and the over-reliance on Gronk are both good enough reasons for me to go against the Patriots. I'm a bit envious of the Colts' fans this season. Andrew Luck should record some monster stats with that offense and I expect them to be involved in a few high-scoring shootouts over the course of the next few months. Despite that loaded offense, I am happy to take them on because they have again neglected their defense. I'll be interested to see how they do when they come up against a tough defense because they do look like they'll leak plenty of points. For that reason I'm happy to take them on at the prices. That leaves the Seahawks and the Packers. Both of these sides will be up there again this year but for me the Packers just have the edge. Yes, they have a big gap to fill at WR but if any QB can make up for the loss of a star name it is Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ roster is full of talent and I think they have more than enough to get by without Nelson. I think the difference between these two sides will be home field advantage and, looking at the Seahawks’ away ties, I fully expect the Packers to have it. The game between the two in Green Bay could be crucial and we have to remember that it was probably only dodgy calls from the sidelines that prevented them beating the Seahawks in Seattle. I’m more than happy to take an interest in the green and yellow at 7/1.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > February 24th & 25th 0.5/1pt Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth to draw - 13/5 with William Hill There isn't a huge amount between these two sides at the moment. Forest have played 4 games under Freedman and, although they have all been against bottom-half sides, theyve registered 3 wins and a draw. They must come in to tonight's game full of confidence because they've scored 14 in those 4 games. Against the current top 6 Forest have won one, drawn one and lost one at home. Bournemouth have been a bit inconsistent lately with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6. However, they are the joint-top scorers in the leage and have the 5th best defence so know they have what it takes to get a result. The pressure is on them to win after last night's results. I think the draw should be a bit shorter than 13/5 so I'm willing to get involved with the hope that the is as close as I think it will be. Sent from my SM-G900F using PL Forum
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Re: Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Atlético de Madrid > Wednesday February 25th 0.5/1pt Atletico Madrid to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 7/4 with Bet365 Atletico are far superior in every department at the minute. The come in to this tie in better form than Leverkusen and have a good record away from home in the Champions League. Under Simeone, Atletico have won 2 of their 3 European knockout round 1st leg ties with the other being a 1-1 draw at Barcelona. They're full of goals and are reasonably tight at the back. Leverkusen's form in the group stage was a bit up and down, just like in other competitions. They've struggled in the league lately and I'd fear the worst should they concede the first goal. Over the last few seasons Atletico have proved that they know how to navigate their way through two-legged European ties. I think anything over 6/4 for them to notch up another European 1st leg win offers value. Sent from my SM-G900F using PL Forum
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Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th Under 2.5 goals and both teams not to score were of interest to me but I think the value has gone on both. Since 03-04 in CL knockout ties where first legs have been played at Arsenal, they've gone under 2.5 in 5/9 (all games against sides of equal or less ability). The other 4 games were against Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Looking at those stats it seems that Wenger is happy to keep it tight in first legs rather than look to get the tie won. Low-scoring game for me but will sit back and watch rather than get involved. Sent from my SM-G900F using PL Forum
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > February 24th & 25th I think Bolton are comfortably the worst side to visit the Riverside this season. We got dragged down to their level and ended up clinging on to what could have been a comfortable 3 points had we been a bit more clever with the way we went about things. Big pressure on Bournemouth tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G900F using PL Forum
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Re: Superbowl 50 Outright betting At first glance I think that Steelers price looks about right. They're in a tough division and will host the likes of the Broncos and 49ers whilst having to travel to Seattle, New England, Kansas and San Diego. I think they could end up around .500. Sent from my SM-G900F using PL Forum
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Re: NFL 2014-2015 Season Winner > Ante-Post Betting I think the 49ers and Seahawks both look poor value considering the division they're in. The expectation on the Seahawks could be a massive burden. Denver could be there or thereabouts as their division shouldn't be that difficult to get out of - I think the Chiefs did what they did last year because of a nice schedule. However, I don't rate them as much as others seem to. Their schedule last year was very, very favourable and, aside from their play-off victory over the Pats, they beat none of the main contenders. Therefore, I see no value in their price despite their off-season recruits. At bigger prices the Saints, Bears, Colts and even the Redskins are all on my shortlist along with the Packers and the Pats. Sent from my GT-I9505 using PL Forum
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Re: Identifying Fillies in Handicaps etc. When viewing a horses record on the Racing Post site (by clicking on their name on the racecard) it says at the top their age, date of birth, colour and sex. g = gelding c = colt f= filly m = mare
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Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl If I was looking to bet on this game I would side with the Ravens at the current prices. I do believe that the 49ers will be a lot better than the Championship game and are worthy favourites but, Flacco has shown he can handle the pressure over these last couple of weeks. I can see it being a tight game with these 2 defence's that can dominate their opponents. Advice on whether you should hedge? I think it just comes down to how you feel because there isn't a right or wrong answer any of us can give you. Very tough game to call.
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Re: NFL 2012 Antepost Betting
Ah, it appears I misread your post. Apologies.Who said 'claim'? :unsure Was a great effort to get both SB teams onside before the season even started -
Re: NFL 2012 Antepost Betting There's no 'claim' about it - worked on very simple logic throughout the season and just ended up in profit from the weekly bets. February 3rd will boost those figures further so there's no reason not to take the same approach next year.
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Re: Race In Focus - King George VI Chase - Kempton Racecourse - 26th December 2012
No, that stopped a long time ago.I much prefer 'Thunder Downs' (F1) that is shown in William Hill, Jimmy! 'Stevie Thunder' wins everytime ha ha. Do Laddies still do virtual footy? -
Re: Boxing - Dec 15th
Why not just aadd another 2 points to your bet on Molina by KO/TKO/DQ? Your 33-1 shot's would return 17pts from 2pts stake whereas another 2 points on Molina by KO/TKO/DQ would return 22.Molina rds 1-3' date= Molina rds 4-6, Molina rds 7-9, Molina rds 10-12 (33-1, 25-1, 28-1, 33-1) Bet365 - 0.5pt each group. -
Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! I think taking time off every now and then is very underrated. I'm currently in the middle of a 2 week break and I do this a few times throughout the year to refresh myself because it can be hard to maintain the same level of study for month after month after month.
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 The money came for it 2 starts ago when running at Aintree. The price got shorter and shorter on the morning before drifting on the off and there was still the same problem. Clearly a horse with mental problems and therefore cannot be trusted to start well and even when in front and looking likely to win he has fell.
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 RE: Kid Cassidy I read a piece on Henderson earlier this week and he was talking about the problems (starting and jumping) he has and put it down to that incident a while back where horses were electrocuted in the paddock (at Newbury?) and Kid Cassidy was there and survived. It could be an excuse but it seems to add up because there are clearly problems in the mind. At Cheltenham last time he again quite clearly refused to go with the others and whilst I am convinced he has a lot of talent and can win big races, he cannot be trusted more than most horses. He finishes well because he is settled by then but it does seem to take some effort to get him to swich off.
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Re: Jump Racing Sunday 28th of October 3.25 Aintree 3/10pts Kid Cassidy to win - 9/2 with Bet365 I will take a little chance on Kid Cassidy taking the win tomorrow in what looks a nice, competitive race. If you look at this horses races you will see that he has his negative points but he has undoubtedly got talent and is well capable of winning this race if he puts in a good round. I love the way he travels in his races because he rarely looks to be working hard and cruises round. That seemingly laid back attitude could be a reason why his jumping is dodgy at times but at the same time I think it shows that he's well capable of putting in classy performances when jumping soundly. He has had 3 runs after long breaks like the one he is coming here off and he has won 2 of them and fell in the other outing when well clear of the field. Therefore, he should be race fit coming in to this one. Last time he ran was at Aintree and I feel that run in particular showed his best and worst sides. He blundered early on and was a clear last for some time before finishing his race really well and picking off the majority of the field really well. The winner was long gone but he beat some good horses that day despite the mistake over the same course and distance as this race will be run over. He faced Takeroc that day with a similar weight difference and won that battle well. I think he's still got a lot of improving to do but is the clear value in the race considering the unexposed Merrion is the clear favourite. Merrion could be anything but at around 3/1 i'm not willing to pay to find out. If he jumps somewhere near best he will go close because he travels well enough to get in contention. He tops the weights but I don't think he is carrying too much when compared to his rivals' marks.
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Re: Mirage's Jumps Season Bet 1: 27/10/12 - 3.25 Aintree 3/10pts Kid Cassidy to win - 9/2 with Bet365 I will take a little chance on Kid Cassidy taking the win tomorrow in what looks a nice, competitive race. If you look at this horses races you will see that he has his negative points but he has undoubtedly got talent and is well capable of winning this race if he puts in a good round. I love the way he travels in his races because he rarely looks to be working hard and cruises round. That seemingly laid back attitude could be a reason why his jumping is dodgy at times but at the same time I think it shows that he's well capable of putting in classy performances when jumping soundly. He has had 3 runs after long breaks like the one he is coming here off and he has won 2 of them and fell in the other outing when well clear of the field. Therefore, he should be race fit coming in to this one. Last time he ran was at Aintree and I feel that run in particular showed his best and worst sides. He blundered early on and was a clear last for some time before finishing his race really well and picking off the majority of the field really well. The winner was long gone but he beat some good horses that day despite the mistake over the same course and distance as this race will be run over. He faced Takeroc that day with a similar weight difference and won that battle well. I think he's still got a lot of improving to do but is the clear value in the race considering the unexposed Merrion is the clear favourite. Merrion could be anything but at around 3/1 i'm not willing to pay to find out. If he jumps somewhere near best he will go close because he travels well enough to get in contention. He tops the weights but I don't think he is carrying too much when compared to his rivals' marks.
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I've given the horses a miss for the past few months, mainly due to having a lot of work on in different parts of the world so it was impossible to get enough time to keep an eye on the game. That's finished now I am based in England again so I will give the jumps a go from now on and try to add another string to my punting bow. I've been a 95% flat man over the years and had reasonable success in the past but always wanted to give the jumps a go and now i'll see if I can get in to it as much as i'd like to. I'll be keeping a totally separate bank from my sports betting and a lower stake per point because I don't see the reason for risking too much when i'll be learning about the game. I'll post all my bets and reasoning in here as well as regular stats updates. Oh, the starting bank is 500pts and the maximum bet will be 10pts. Wish me luck! EDIT: I shall be concentrating on class 2 and above races over both hurdles and fences. I may narrow that down over time. When posting my stats, I will just include the prices I take and not anything I gain using BOG. I'll also inlude the odd AW bet.
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Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Oct 28 7/10pts Tottenham to beat Southampton - 17/20 with William Hill Big bet on Spurs for me. When I looked at this match I expected Spurs to be priced at 8/11 at most so this is clearly representing value in my opinion. Southampton cannot defend and I've cashed in on that fact a few times this season when their opponents have been priced too big. I watched them against Fulham, Everton and West Ham and in each of those matches they were 2nd best for most of the game and should really have lost all 3 (they snatched a point against Fulham). They obviously have a threat going forward in Rickie Lambert but the defence doesn't look like tightening up and, with the amount of attacking threats Tottenham have, they will have plenty to cope with in this game. Tottenham have stepped up a gear in recent weeks and their midfield should be able to boss this game - as it did against Reading not long ago. With so many suppliers to Defoe and the amount of players in their team who can score, they are always in games and in truth their starting line-up is a few steps above Southampton's in terms of class. I see Spurs creating a lot of chances in this game and can see yet another Southampton defeat.
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Re: How to know when a hurdler will make a good chaser. Advice please I too have been more of a flat man myself and not really got in to the jumps over the years but, having taken a few months out of horse punting altogether, I'll be having a go on this jumps season. I'll have a smaller, separate bank from my sports punting but will see if I can enjoy it more over the coming weeks and pick a few winners.
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Re: NFL: Week 8 picks Adding to that Detroit/Seattle bet with another couple for Sunday: 4/10pts NY Jets (-3.5 points) to beat Miami - 7/4 with Bet365 Going to take the slightly bigger handicap on the Jets this weekend as I think they may run out fairly comfortable winners. The Jets have been a little inconsistent this season in terms of their performance levels but I think, on paper, the record of 3-4 is somewhere near what I'd have expected before the season started. They've beaten the average sides and lost to the better sides on paper and one of those wins was at Miami. They won in overtime that day so definitely have confidence from that result and can cover this line on home turf. The Dolphins are nothing special in defence so Sanchez won't have as many problems as he has against some sides and their offence won't cause this injury affected Jets defence as much trouble as the likes of the 49ers and Texans. Miami haven't consistenly put big totals on the board so that has to be a worry so a score of over 20 could well be enough for the Jets to cover this line. That is well within their reach. 5/10pts Chicago (-7.5 points) to bet Carolina - 10/11 with Paddy Power Carolina's season is all but over already and I see another defeat for them this weekend. Cam Newton has struggled in his 2nd season and the media attention around him is clearly unhealthy. This weekend he comes up against a Bears defence on top of their game so things don't look likely to improve for him and his offence - an offence who have struggled to compete with most sides they have played this season. Their defence has been inconsistent so with both sides of their squad misfiring often it's hard to be confident about their chances. The Bears have a lot of attacking options to use and rarely have to get in to the top gears to win games because their defence keeps the opposition score low. These sides are at opposite ends of the confidence scale so it's a comfortable Bears win for me.
NFL: Week 1
in NFL Predictions
Posted
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots – 1pt Patriots -7 @ 20/21 with Ladbrokes Here we go again. The reigning champions host the Steelers in the first game of the regular season and what a mouth-watering prospect we could have had. The Steelers come in to this match without key players, namely Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and MaurkicePouncey. For those unaware, all three of these guys are big players on offense for the Steelers. Bell is one of the best RBs in the league who would be missed by any side whilst Martavis Bryant is a frequently-used WR. Pouncey started every game last year and we always hear about how hard it is to replace a centre because the position does require a high level of understanding with the QB. Antonio Brown would have come in to this game with big expectations on his shoulders anyway but without Bell and Bryant the pressure has just gone up a notch. He’ll probably be the only man the Steelers can ask to come up with big plays when needed and for anyone that is a tough situation to be in.It’s hard to predict how the Steelers will do on the road this season because most of the venues they visited last season were occupied by very average sides (at best). The Patriots aren’t without problems either. Vince Wilfork has left the building and replacing a leader like that who has performed at the top level for so long will be tough. In Revisthey’ve lost a big-time performer and they now look light at cornerback but, with no Bell or Bryant to deal with, they should get by in this game. The Patriots have also parted ways with a couple of players who had the potential to have big games in their bit-part roles. The over-reliance on Gronk does concern me but that is more a concern for over the course of a season rather than in each game. Despite all of this, the fact remains that the Patriots are a formidable force at home. After the off-season they had they’ll want to come out with a bang and I fully expect them to do so. This bet is more about who the Steelers have left at home, hopefully the Patriots will take full advantage.