Lardonio
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Posts posted by Lardonio
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Re: RFO Value System The Scots look set to give your system a good start, but it's one half remaining. Cross my fingers I didn't just jinx it...
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Re: I need a Craps Strategy that works Not playing it is the only long-term non-losing strategy.
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Re: The Bounce Theory Never seen a bouncing horse myself but I'm looking forward to it.
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Re: Past results between two teams I have absolutely no faith in "past results" statistics with only a very few exceptions (the high profile derby matches like Rangers-Celtic, Roma-Lazio etc). There are to many changes in the teams/management, changes in form, changes in mentality, to many random happenings etc. to get reliable statistics from this. Also the basis for the statistics are very poor, often just a couple of matches which makes the chance of error very high. And if you increase the number of years you go back to get a better statistics foundation, you decrease the chance of reliable numbers even more as all the changes that happen each year are multiplied.
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Re: Strategy...bet strong favourites on Betfair.
What is the reasoning behind betting on the favourite AND laying the draw?I have been using this strategy for a few weeks now, ( with pretty good success rate) and wonder if anyone has a way of refining it please. On Betfair I BET a level stake on all hot favourites, home or away. (all Eng and Scot ) The favourite must be less than half the odds of the outsider....and I also LAY the draw. -
Re: Martingdale System..... Maybe Martingdale is a different system :-)
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Re: WC Qualifying 8-9 June Thanks :-) I'm flattered someone remembers me! 0-2 fulltime NK-Japan according to livescore.com. Well done to the Under2,5 brigade.. :clap
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Re: WC Qualifying 8-9 June Consider a draw in North Korea-Japan. This is a match where there's lots of feelings involved (they hate each other with a passion) and it will be hard-fought. North Korea is not a great team and will probably be happy with one point, as it will rescure their honor and enable them to go home to their dictator without having mysterious accidents happen to them. One point will also leave them with a small chance of being nr. 3 in the group by beating Bahrain in the last game, giving them a playoff match for WC qualification. Japan will also be happy with one point because their team is decimated (suspensions and injuries to at least 3-4 first-team players). Also, one point will guarantee World Cup qualification. Under should be a great pick, but I'm going for the draw at 4.00 (Nordicbet, Betfair..). I think it's good value. This match is starting soon (I think) so be quick if you want to bet.
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Re: Martingale with draws
Very sensible decision! I must add though that I understand very well where you wanted to go with this. In working with betting plans and strategies there seems, for me at least, to be some sort of mysterious force that always makes me consider staking plans such as martingale even though I know very well that it's not sensible - actually it's betting suicide. I guess it's the hope of finding The Perfect System that makes it nearly impossible for me to totally rid my mind of Martingale variations when I'm thinking betting strategy. I never do them anymore, but even after many years of betting I still sometimes find myself thinking I've hit the Big One - if I bet on draw at halftime in French League 1 matches on Sundays in months with an R, and then double up for every loss -surely I must become fabolously wealthy! :spankyou are all right, this is one to avoid ... -
Re: Martingale with draws If you do several bets at the same time (as mentioned in #1) how will you be able to adjust the stake according to your plan? AND - you are aware of that this is not a good idea except for entertainment? That 150/1 shot will hit you sooner or later and probably wipe out all your profits and more.
Martingale machine
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Martingale machine To be fair, reverse martingale or labouchere or whatever is just as stupid mathematically but the staking part might not be so dangerous.