HeresTheKey
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Posts posted by HeresTheKey
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Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan
as i said, in these cases bookies are right, we are wronf.i hope someday be more brave and use that knowledge total : + 5,73 unitsi jumped that train too with low odds although bookies are rarely wrong in such occasions("obvious" ratings for us punters) so V. Azarenka vs N. Li @ 2,47 (3/10):cry -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan
I fully agree the odds are droped already to 2,47. i jumped that train too with low odds although bookies are rarely wrong in such occasions("obvious" ratings for us punters) so V. Azarenka vs N. Li @ 2,47 (3/10)Taking a couple for the WTA Sydney final tomorrow. Na Li +3 games AH vs Azarenka @ 1.980 (Pinnacle:5pts) Na Li to bt Azarenka @ 2.610 (Pinnacle:1pt) Not really getting the odds here, how can Azarenka be 1.57 favourite in a final vs Li? Am I missing something here? I personally think Li is the better player at her best, and she loves the courts in Australia, seems to be peaking at the right time for a good run at the AO I think. She has started the year very well, unbeaten in 2012, and knocked out Kvitova today in a 3 setter. She was getting blasted for a while in that one, but started playing great at the end of set 2 and then in set 3 while Kvitova had her usual dip. Attacking the return, serve looking better again too, crushing the ball in rallies. I think she will be dangerous over the next few weeks tbh. Azarenka is of course a quality player too, has beaten some good opponents this week in Bartoli, Jankovic and eventually Radwanska today who was gassed out in the 3rd set. Should be a tough match, but the odds look skewed to me, I'd have it 50:50 at worst here. H2H is 4-2 in Li's favour, also winning 2 big matches against her in slams last year. Last match she lost to Azarenka in the end of year championships when she was playing utter crap in those months. Not like that today though. GL!.......:hope -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Sydney/ Hobart
total : + 8,73 unitstonight i lile kolshreiber to beat almagro.philip has a title from aucland(2008) and he generally goes very well here(w16-l5 carreer match record in this tournamet)i think these odds for him is huge value P. Kohlschreiber vs N. Almagro @ 2,26 (8/10):ok -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Sydney/ Hobart
LOSS TOTAL: -1,65 tonight i lile kolshreiber to beat almagro.philip has a title from aucland(2008) and he generally goes very well here(w16-l5 carreer match record in this tournamet)i think these odds for him is huge value P. Kohlschreiber vs N. Almagro @ 2,26 (8/10)G. Monfils vs A. Roddick @ 2,30 pinnacle (3/10) The american needs to make a comeback and against the unstable Monfils is the best option for that.their h2h is 3-1 for rodick in hard.definetely i cannot price monfils below 1,85 for that so... -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Sydney/ Hobart
it seems like Stepanek just gave up in the 3rd set anyway -7units total +1,35 there is a match i fancy this morning G. Monfils vs A. Roddick @ 2,30 pinnacle (3/10) The american needs to make a comeback and against the unstable Monfils is the best option for that.their h2h is 3-1 for rodick in hard.definetely i cannot price monfils below 1,85 for that so...nice odds it was:cigar +8,35 units ---------- for today's card i m with stepanek against niemminen-i ve seen stepanek in brisbane and i believe he is cabable for more than what his ranking shows (31).their h2h in hard is 3-1 for him and i expect him to fly easily tonight.besides it is clear if you read often this thread that Chechs know tennis quite a lot ;) and deserve all the trust of the world R. Stepanek (-2.5) vs J. Nieminen @ 1,901 pinnacle (7/10) -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Sydney/ Hobart
nice odds it was:cigar +8,35 units ---------- for today's card i m with stepanek against niemminen-i ve seen stepanek in brisbane and i believe he is cabable for more than what his ranking shows (31).their h2h in hard is 3-1 for him and i expect him to fly easily tonight.besides it is clear if you read often this thread that Chechs know tennis quite a lot ;) and deserve all the trust of the world R. Stepanek (-2.5) vs J. Nieminen @ 1,901 pinnacle (7/10)today i ll try my luck against anderson.manarino's win is on 2,67 and i think these are pretty good odds to be missed.their h2h is 2-1 in hard but last time they met in johanesburg so kevin had the "hot" atmosphere to support him.in australia will not be like that and adrian deserves better odds than what they give him A. Mannarino vs K. Anderson @ 2,67 pinnacle(5/10) -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Sydney/ Hobart
lucky me the bet was canceled cause julia retired in the 2nd set today i ll try my luck against anderson.manarino's win is on 2,67 and i think these are pretty good odds to be missed.their h2h is 2-1 in hard but last time they met in johanesburg so kevin had the "hot" atmosphere to support him.in australia will not be like that and adrian deserves better odds than what they give him A. Mannarino vs K. Anderson @ 2,67 pinnacle(5/10)i like an upset against Jankovits.Goerges has beaten up Wozniaki in Madrit and Studgart and although it was on clay this means this girl has the potential.the odds for her win is about 3 and it doesnt seem fair to me. their h2h in hard is 1-1. so... J. Jankovic vs J. Goerges (+4) @ 2,16 pinnacle (4/10) -
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Sydney/ Hobart i like an upset against Jankovits.Goerges has beaten up Wozniaki in Madrit and Studgart and although it was on clay this means this girl has the potential.the odds for her win is about 3 and it doesnt seem fair to me. their h2h in hard is 1-1. so... J. Jankovic vs J. Goerges (+4) @ 2,16 pinnacle (4/10)
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Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 10-12 December CHELSEA - MAN CITY no goal @ 2,40 bet365 7 out of their 10 last meetings ended up with no goal 4 of the last 5 matches of Chelsea also I think Boas will find a way to cancell Silva and Djeko and somehow i predict a borinhg game
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Re: When to double/treble, staking options doubles and trebles make no sense in the long run. it is very hard to predict even one match. as for staking my approach is:pecentage of a bank is the best system(2% - 4%) i dont use kelly because i n kelly you should calulate the odds of a result, something i find (personally) impossible
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August
I will take a large bet on manu/tot over 3.5 goals' date=' but also will add an exact score 2-0 bet to make it as safe as possible, I was wondering maybe I should add some other scores too like 3-0 or 2-1?[/quote'] always a mistake to be in too many markets just an opinion my bet is over 1,5 @ 1,26 -one third of my bank i take all the reasons blackcrow and dak mentioned but i ll more aggresively -
Re: Tennis - 15-21 August
i dont think that comparing favourites in football and in tennis can lead to something valuable from the betting perspective. my idea is that tennis is much more unpredictable sport than football in terms of favourites between 1,20 -1,60 odds i dont have any data to back that, and i think it has to do with the nature of the points which give a winner in each sport in tennis a loser (during the play) can always come back much more easily than a loser(in play) in football i mean someone takes the 1rst set, that s a whole lot of effort to do so, but then again in the second set is like they start from 0 all over again then if the player who lost the first set equalizes has the psychological momentum with him and most of the times(i think) is the player who takes the match as i said i dont have any data to back these ideas and i wont take it personally if you think it s crap-but i wanted to share this if there s any valueI hope You got your money back. Regardless of tonight's match, it was( and it is) pointless to put money against Djokovic v 2.0. Just like against Fc Barcelona . You know when Barca is playing at home teams like Valencia,Sevilla, Espagnol, Malaga,Getafe etc, you can get high odds on away win,from 4-5 to 12-15 or more. And indeed, one day they(Barca) will also lose. They are human too, but before they lose one game, they will win many, many times. Its just stupid to play against Barca and against Nole 2.0, nothing more,nothing less. Nole can win against player like Berdych,Almagro, Fish, Soderling etc even with his B game, its so obvius. And there is no logic for him to reach the semifinals and then tank game. If he had wanted to do it, he would do it in the first or second round, not in semifinal. In other tournaments, he had a very bad games too (Bellucci, Tomic, Baghdatis ...) but he still win the matches and very much raised his game when he needed it. Compare his game against Tomic on Wimbledoon and against Rafa. Whatever , you can put your money on Murray too, 3,40 Bet 365, you know "value" and stuff like that, its on you... -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August
celtic - sion 0-0:nanamy instict says that many people will do as you and will lose money it s europa league, a tournament full of surprises every year, specially in this period there are many favourites today, this means many combos, and one match "breaks" the money will flow to books my personal choises are lay fulham, lay celtic in singles i think one of two will break exactly because they will collect most of the money as popular matches anyway there s logic in your combo and good luck -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August
thinking of doing an accumulator with these teams all to win' date=' Tottenham, Celtic, Athletic Bilbao, Fulham and PAOK, odds are nearly 10/1 and all teams apart from Spurs are at home. IMO this has a good chanc of winning, to be honest i cant see any of the teams i plan to back losing or drawing. Anyone got opinions on this?:cheers[/quote'] my instict says that many people will do as you and will lose money it s europa league, a tournament full of surprises every year, specially in this period there are many favourites today, this means many combos, and one match "breaks" the money will flow to books my personal choises are lay fulham, lay celtic in singles i think one of two will break exactly because they will collect most of the money as popular matches anyway there s logic in your combo and good luck -
Re: Tennis - 15-21 August i could bet my house that Nadal wont lose a second time in a row from a Second Class like verdasko today will i end up homeless?? what s your opinion guys? a second upset from the spaniard in so short time?
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 16-17 August
panathinaikos was 1-1 in denmark and everybody in greece thought that they passed to the next leg then in athens the combination of stress and poor defensive abilities created a 3-4 win for odense panathinaikos is a very good team in europe, they beaten last year rome, they have also beaten werder and inter before 3 years(inside their home stadions in all 3 matches), they are very experienced however they managed to lose from the danish team, so me odense is very respectfull team the key thing here is if utaka will play or not if utaka play the most value bet is odense +0,5 @ 2,04 ----- they have lost to villareal with 0-3 back in 2004 in a similar encounter but i cannot see the history repeated since this time they have more matches in their feet and they are a much better team this year(the 2004 match was 3rd july, very early for the danish league)I think villareal will win tonight.. odense past over panathinaikos and the greeks are very weak this season.. what do you think guys? -
Re: HeresTheKey in tennis 4)stephens - errani 1 @ 2,55 pinnacle stake : 3,54 reasoning: errani is in bad form(6 consequetive losses) while stephens can make a small upset here in her last 4 matches she lost only to petkovits while won paszek, goerges(!), zang - all players with higher ranking than her
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Re: HeresTheKey in tennis
NEW BANK 88,47 NEXT STAKE 3,542)Fish - Tipsarevits 2 @ 2' date='34 pinnacle [b']LOSS stake 3,69 reasoning:fish is pretty unstable, i watch his match with gulbis and though he won i think he is a very average server and he won only because gulbis was more unstable than him.the odds on the serbian are great too -
Re: HeresTheKey in tennis 2)Fish - Tipsarevits 2 @ 2,34 pinnacle stake 3,69 reasoning:fish is pretty unstable, i watch his match with gulbis and though he won i think he is a very average server and he won only because gulbis was more unstable than him.the odds on the serbian are great too
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Re: HeresTheKey in tennis
NEW BANK 92,16 NEXT BET 3,692)Fish - Gulbis 2 @ 2' date='38 pinnacle[b'] LOSS stake 3,84 reasoning: head 2 head is 1-0 for the latvian and he seems in form, comes from a 7 consequetive wins alll in hard surface i think he deserves something better than No55 in rankings and this ATP is his chance to prove it certainly the odds worth the risk -
Re: HeresTheKey in tennis 2)Fish - Gulbis 2 @ 2,38 pinnacle stake 3,84 reasoning: head 2 head is 1-0 for the latvian and he seems in form, comes from a 7 consequetive wins alll in hard surface i think he deserves something better than No55 in rankings and this ATP is his chance to prove it certainly the odds worth the risk
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Re: HeresTheKey in tennis
-4 NEW BANK 96 NEXT STAKE 3,841)na li - samantha stosur 1 @ 2' date='25 pinnacle [b']LOSS bet 4 reasoning:no 6 against no 11 here and my rating is tha the chinese should have odds around 1,95 so i go with the value -
Re: HeresTheKey in tennis 1)na li - samantha stosur 1 @ 2,25 pinnacle bet 4 reasoning:no 6 against no 11 here and my rating is tha the chinese should have odds around 1,95 so i go with the value
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(i hope i m in the right thread) i will record here bets on tennis, a recent love of mine in the sport of mine the bank is 100 euros and i ll bet 4% in each bet one bet a day odds strictly between 2 and 3 my aim is to learn the players the tecnichs the sport in general stop loss the 50 euros
Tennis 8th-15th Jan
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan my focus tonight is in monfills.what a loser.he keeps disapointing me lately (against Tsonga and Rodick too-though he managed finally to beat the american, he was pure crap and just lucky-76 76). their head to head is 4-0 for the clown but out of these matches only one was one hard. meltzer who beat tsonga in this tournament can do the damage and i believe he ll be more motivated J. Melzer (+3) vs G. Monfils @ 1,952 (5/10)