HeresTheKey
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Posts posted by HeresTheKey
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Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Saturday March 29th Arsenal is the value bet here people.With odds around 3.75 in their home certainly we dont have to passby them.
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Re: Antepost > League Two 2013/14 > Winner great thread:clap
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Re: Reading v Arsenal > Mon 17th December
reading did a good first ht with man utd in home, and i expect them to be better tonight with arsenal yes they can take a draw for the match if they focus on their defence somethng is the logical thing to focus after their last match with united arsenal is not a team to follow and back specially in these odds and specially away they lost from norwich and drawed with aston villa recently,so i dont feel safe to put my money on them i prefer to lose some in under 2,5 @ 2,30 (3/10) than to risk a big sum on 1,57 in a team who won only 1 match(west ham) in their last 6 travellsFor all Arsenal have inconsistencis, Does anyone really beleive Reading will upset here, ? The very best for Reading has to be a draw, does it not, and even then you are clutching. But the odds here tonight are so very tight either way, were is the angle? Im working on this game later, ill try n find something.. -
Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City > Sun 16th December
excellent preview i agree on most of what you say, apart from the fact that i would never bet on Tottenam to win here for anything less that 1,80. Aynway my pick is 2-3 goals in the match @ 2,00 with sporting bet this would be a winning bet in 4 out of the last 6 matches Londoners were in, and in 5 out of the last 6 away matches the Swans travelled But most of all i liked the odds low stakes (3/10) just for the adrenalineGoing for quite a few in this game but big risk = big reward...... Over 2.5 goals 1.73 @ Betfair - IMO I can see goals in this game. Both sides like to play good attacking football and both sides have been on a good run of late prior to both sides defeats last weekend. Tottenham will be without Bale again which is obviously a big miss but I still fancy us to get three points tomorrow. Spurs have only kept 2 clean sheets in 16 league games and only 1 in 8 at home so I fancy Swansea to score 1 tomorrow particularly as they have joint leading goalscorer Michu who has been on fire this season. On the other hand Defoe has been our main goal threat up front this season and he already has 13 in all competitions this season. Norwich managed to score 4 against Swansea last week so I fancy our chances of scoring 2 or 3 tomorrow despite Bales absence. Correct Score: Tottenham 3-1 Swansea 13/1 @ Betfair - As I said before I think both sides will struggle to keep a clean sheet tomorrow and I expect to see an entertaining game as both sides play good football. The fact that Swansea like to attack will benefit Tottenham tomorrow as we usually do well against sides who attack us compared to teams who sit back e.g. Stoke. Despite Bale likely to be out, we should still have too much for the Swans with Sandro and Dembele in the middle and Adebayor and Defoe up top. Swansea will no doubt give us a game tomorrow but I think their attacking minded play will be their downfall here and 3-1 to Spurs looks like a likely score IMO. Both Teams to score 1.68 @ Betfair - I'm quite confident that both teams will score tomorrow as Swansea will come to WHL without fear and attack and us so BTTS looks like a solid bet here. Tottenham to beat Swansea 1.71 @ Betfair - This price is probably the bare minimum that I would take and anything below this price has no value IMO. Half-time Correct Score / Full-time Correct Score: Tottenham 1-0 Swansea / Tottenham 3-1 Swansea 35/1 @ Bet365 - This ones a bit of a longshot but I couldn't resist the price. I can see the game becoming more open as the game goes on and can see more goals being scored in the second half. Michu to score anytime 3.4 @ Betfair - This price looks a bit big IMO for a player who has scored a brace in each of his last 2 premier league appearances and 12 in 16 in the prem this season. The 3.4 price suggests Michu would score in this game 29% which judging from his stats this season is a bit low. Add the fact that he will be up against a Spurs defence with just 2 clean sheets this season and I fancy his chances of getting on the scoresheet at the Lane tomorrow. Michu to score anytime -
Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December My pick is over 3,5 @ 2,15 in sportingbet here. United have 4 games that went over 3,5 in their last 6 matches while Sunderland have 3 matches out of the last 6 that went over 3,5 and 2 that where over 2,5 i know these things mean nothing actually and the game could end an easy 0-0 or 0-1 or 1-0 but at least odds on 2,15 are better than the stupid 1,21 that i can find in united's win on the other hand sunderland is with the back in the wall and i have huge respect for martin o neil so i m not expecting the "parking the bus" strategy specially after a quick goal(before 30') from RVP or Rouney etc. Sunderland scored against Chelsea before one week and i dont rate United's defence better than the Blue team. All in all, just a value bet with small stakes 3/10
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Re: Manchester City v Manchester United > Sun 9th December
Horrible game to bet on IMO. I'm sure they'll be an angle' date=' but neither side are really setting the league slight at the minute. So it's hard to know really which way it'll go. I have an inkling both mangers will aim to play it tight as they're so close together at this stage of the season. So although both defences have been dire this season, the meaning of this game may mean neither side willing to give much away.[/quote'] Your point on defences is very accurate to me and it gives me the angle i want to lose some money on this. I mean considering your point + the attacking power both teams have i ll go over 3,5 goals. I agree also yjay managers would aim on playing it tightly but i guess any 1rst goal will set this match on fire.If this goal is before 60', then my bet will have good chances. So over 3,5 @ 2,80 in sporting bet with 4/10 -
I like this review very much but for all the above reasons + 1 i decided to bet on BTTS.I think Villa will score today, not just because they re desperate for points in their home, but also because they have 7 goals in their last 6 games at home, 2 of them against Man Utd BTTS @ 1,95 in sportingbetStoke @ 3.12 pinnacle Villa have shown some form of late as they have two draws and a win in their last three EPL games with two clean sheets which were both at home. They welcome a Stoke side that had a rare away win at West Brom last week, as they have four wins and a draw in their last five EPL games. They too have been hard to score against with three clean sheets in these games, and it will come down to which of these two sets of forwards can breach the other. Villa are missing Vilar in defence once again and have quite a bit of youth and inexperience back there, and can see the likes of Crouch and Jones causing them plenty of problems at the set pieces. Believe that Shawcross and Huth are good enough to stop Villa from scoring, so like Pulis to win another one here and edge forward to a top 6 spot. -
Luck will always play some part in a bet. I question the 'always gambling' part though. I don't gamble' date=' I bet. Those who gamble are taking more of a chance with their money by just randomly making a selection and/or not bothering to do proper research. That's where discipline and patience come to the fore. There are quite a few threads on here that will demonstrate that.[/quote'] With all my respect to your threads which i highly admire,for every thread that it is succesfull through "research" i can show 50 that they arent.Using research again, and yes Greece was euro champion in 2004. I agree tottaly on the "discipline" factor but discipline eliminates the fun which is what is all about. Believing that betting is not gambling it is just an illusion.A wide spread illusion otherwise gambling/betting sites wouldnt be so proffitable businesses. I just wanted to warn a new player about it cause i read too much stuff lately on how betting is similar to investing.B**** is my opinion Of course everybody is entitled to his opinion and how he will spend his money.
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It s always gambling wether 1.01 or 1.8 Find out what s most fun for you and stick with that.There s no right or wrong mathematically. You just need luck with your side.Research is secondary.
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Having a statistical edge is essential.I think the vast majority of punters just "guess" and "hope" while pros betting with statistically proven sustems where losses are part of the system so are acceptable. Of course there are thousands of systems out there, but the lack of discipline wont let em be used.Again by the vast majority. So systems and discipline alone are not the one word. My opinion is that if there is one word this should be very close to confidence as the friend above described. I mean being consistently successfull with gambling you need a special mindset that allows you to see failure as part of the success. So my one word is ..eer...hmmm...enlightened.
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Yep-exactly! Place bets
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You mean not in the exchange market but in the "sportsbook" as they call their "normal bookie"mode? Sorry for my english
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Hello i m recently involved in horce racing and i fancy betting on each way bets. unfortunately for me bet365 doesn t offer simple each way bets.you should bet win+each way which lowers the odds. can you suggest any bookie who allows such bets?and also in which bookie can i do multiples with each way selections? thanx !
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Re: Sunderland v Wigan 29th September 2012 i know it would be crazy sanderland to draw 5 times in a row but this is what will happen if they draw their match with wigan. my guess is exactly what will happen cause this is an underish match between two more or less equal teams-so far the prehistory of the match says wigan has 7 wins while sanderland has 4 wins in their last 15 matches so anyone considers the odds on saderland's win as a gift please try to remember there are no gifts from the books so my pick is X with low stakes : @ 3,53 with pinnacle
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It was 2,78(at noon) and now it is 2,86 (utd's win) in BF I think that s great value even if they lose
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I suggest not to hesitate and have a look. Even in the link above paddy power, sporting bet and william hill price them at 7/4. Anyway it seems now that their price is falling.It might be my bad memory but I actually thought uniteds odds for this game is much lower than in previous meetings. I don't recall them being 7/5 to win away at anfield? Actually I just had a quick look on the flashscore archives and their last meeting at anfield united were priced at around 2/1, which is higher than the 9/5 offered in this. I even hesitate to look at meetings from last season. http://www.flashscores.co.uk/match/jgOpfjmT/?of=uk#odds-comparison;1x2-odds;full-time -
Re: Liverpool V Manchester United > 23rd September
\ to add on this, agreeing with you: yes they could but with united's odds around 2,80 at the moment it is a crime not to bet some. their odds to win in anfield are around 2,40 and less usually (my statistics go back till 2008) and they havent made it so far they have lost 4 times and draw 1, the last 5 times they travelled to Liverpool, and i guess this is one of the reasons the odds on utd to win is so high but they are a better team and the value is with them so LIVERPOOL - MAN UTD. 2 DNB @ 2 with pinnacle with 9/10 LIVERPOOL - MAN UTD 2 @ 2,82 with pinnacle with 2/10I was merely responding t the post that quoted United's performance against Galatasary as evidence that they could perform well against them. If you're going to take United's recent performance in Europe into account, then you have to also take Liverpool's into account. They have played two teams from two of the poorest leagues in the whole of Europe and failed to beat one of them and conceded three goals against the other one. I don't see them beating United but, as you say, Liverpool could always "steal" a win. -
Rhodes is beautifull-have a nice time
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Re: Champions League > September 19th
i tottaly agree with you but i ll choose a more safe option(in my opinion) under 3 @ 1,82 in 12bet could be very possible since i expect both teams to be carefull bayern is the barcelona of the europe-outside-spain, this means that statistics say that the football they play is closer to tiki-taka more than anyone else, but to valencia is their normal environment so it will be hard for riberry and roben.to score on the other hand the fact that ball possesion will be mainly on the german side means that valencia will be lucky to score in contra-attacks, something i hope it wont be in the first half anyway pretty interesting match here and 7/10 are my stakesI like the odds on Valencia = AH+1 @ 2.2 Paddypower Bayern had a very good start with 3 wins and 12-2 goals, but played only against rather weak Bundesliga opponents. Long-term absentees are Gomez, Alaba, Contento. Ribery and Robben are expected to be fit. Only weak point is the LB position as Alaba-Conento are out and Badstuber, who will play there, is not a natural LB. The reason why I think Valencia are absolutely able to compete at the Allianz Arena are the two away games they already faced this season, two of the toughest away matches you can play in the world elite football - at Real and Barca. They earned a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu and lost only 0-1 at the Camp Nou. You can tell that Barca and Real were superior, still Valencia stood their ground and showed that they're everything but cannon fodder at this early stage of the season. Albeda, Canales and Piatti are out, but I don't think this will hurt Valencia as these three played only 100 minutes this season (combined). Good value in my eyes. -
Re: Mike needs a new phone. good luck mate but risking 60% of your bankroll in a double at odds of 2, in CL it s not a wise approach i dont care that you won-i m just saying it friendly cause i really want to see you make it. you wont go far this way my suggestion is no more than 10% of your bank, and only singles good luck anyway!
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Re: Champions League > September 18th
won after 17'!! let s watch real-city now...monpelier - arsenal is the match that drawed my attention i see goal-goal as a quite safe bet here @ 1,83 in bet365, as the arsenal's win tends to be the public bet of the evening.every site i see speaks of how monpelier is struggling in their local championship and how they sold their best striker to arsenal blah blah blah well this is the french champion and they will be in their home.arsenal was never a trusted team to my eyes.they seem to win when they suppose to lose and the opposite. to me this could go anywhere tonight, so i dont want to bet on final result, but if arsenal scores i m sure the french they ll try to find a mistake in arsenal's defence, something which i dont see it very difficult -
Re: Champions League > September 18th monpelier - arsenal is the match that drawed my attention i see goal-goal as a quite safe bet here @ 1,83 in bet365, as the arsenal's win tends to be the public bet of the evening.every site i see speaks of how monpelier is struggling in their local championship and how they sold their best striker to arsenal blah blah blah well this is the french champion and they will be in their home.arsenal was never a trusted team to my eyes.they seem to win when they suppose to lose and the opposite. to me this could go anywhere tonight, so i dont want to bet on final result, but if arsenal scores i m sure the french they ll try to find a mistake in arsenal's defence, something which i dont see it very difficult
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Re: Norwich V West Ham > September 15th value on a West Ham win to me here if they can beat fulham and aston vila i cannot see why not and norwich.i know that outside their home they aint good enough, but this is not for the class of teams like Norwich. The odds are droping fast so for me is West Ham +0,25 @ 1,90 in many asian bookies (the last time the two teams the "hammers" won with 2-1 in the home of Norwich-that was for the cup during 2006)
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Re: Man United v Fulham > Sat 25 August
no i wasnt wrong.fulham was lucky in a couple of times but overall a very proud performanceAgain this is a match where there s an unjustified by the results favoritism for the manchester side.From what i saw against everton they lack creativity and they have big gaps defensively.Rooney was nearly his last years' self and also nani was kind of asleep. Fulham were on fire against a much more weaker opponent so it remains to be seen what will be left from this performance last Saturday. But to me the odds reflect the names of the teams and not their actual performance.So they are wrong. Or maybe i m wrong but i ll pay to see. manchester utd. - fulham 2(ah + 1,75) @ 1,704 pinnacle
Third Place Play-Off - Brazil v Netherlands > Saturday July 12th
in World Cup 2022 Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Third Place Play-Off - Brazil v Netherlands > Saturday July 12th This is totally unredictable, but value lies with Netherlands this is my opinion.Brazilian players in front of home public cannot afford to lose again, so psycolically will be pressed. The dutch is a very good team, and it is just by accident they are not in the final. To me Double Chance X2 @ 1,80 in most bookies, with small stake, just for the sake of adrenaline during watching, is THE option.