benreado
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Posts posted by benreado
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Competition ~ Day 1 Selections 1.30: Irving 2.05: Valdez 2.40: King Massini 3.20: My tent or yours 4.00: Cockney Sparrow 4.40: Living Next Door 5.15: Attaglance
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Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Cup Final is currently 50/1 with multiple firms and I'd suggest that's a good each way price. McCoy confirmed in yesterday's preview he's riding and I can't remember many JP horses with Henderson training and the champ on board go off at that price! His run behind Iriving last time gives him a lot to find on ratings, but I think it was an eye catching run at a track and trip that wouldn't have suited the horse 1 bit. Henderson said last night the horse has come on no end since that run and needed it very badly. I think he'll be much shorter on the day for sure and wouldn't put anyone off backing it at such a big price.
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Re: Horses in training. Does anyone know what happened to a horse called Saint Luke? It used to be trained by Peter Bowen. It won 3 bumpers and ran really nice races in the festival bumpers at Cheltenham and Aintree. Then the hurdling didn't really go to plan and it was beaten when last seen a year ago off a mark of 90. I was expecting a revival life it's stablemate Big Time Billy. That mare had a very similar profile and went up about 50lbs winning a number of handicaps. But it appears Saint Luke is no longer in training with Peter Bowen (it's not listed on the website anyway). Anyone know what happened. I can't imagine they just gave up with it and shot it because the horse clearly had an engine - it would've been a nice animal for a lot of trainers even if not what they had originally hoped. Perhaps it got injured? Or maybe it's with someone else now. Anyone know?
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Re: Sporting Life race replay videos The only reason is because part of the contract Sporting Life have with ATR is that the videos must be behind a login. That's why when it was just Racing Uk races shown it wasn't the case. As Sporting Life is owned by BSkyB SkyBet was always the obvious choice for the login. Just sign up for free you don't even need to enter card details. It's the same as login as for Super 6 which is also free. Sportinglife is IMO miles ahead of any other free service for studying form. Everything in one place. Only thing that can match it is RacingPost payed membership.
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Not very often I post here but I think there's some good value out there tomorrow in the last jumps race at Haydock. Aikideau 12/1 16.40 Haydock Bet365 Ladbrokes Victor This race was the first race I studied today because I had a notification that Attaglance was declared. Before studying the race I would've been 95% sure that was the horse I would've backed as its clearly well handicapped now facing fences on decent ground. King Of The Knight would also be interesting - that horse also looks very well treated on hurdles form. However the horse I'm backing is neither of those. I chose to side with bottom weight Aikideau first time out for Paul Nicholls. This horse finished a close 12th behind Zarkandar in the strongest Triumph hurdle of recent years. Just about every horse that finished around him is now rated 130-140. This horse hasn't quite reproduced the same level since switched to fences despite running a very nice race behind the handicap blot and recent grade 2 winner that was Rjadhani Express before falling late on. Aikideau has slipped down to a very tempting mark of 115 and gets into this race with 9-9 on it's back taking off Harry Derham's claim. Whilst it is a competitive race I think the change of scenery will have done this horse the world of good and Paul Nicholls always has his horses very close to optimum fitness first time out. You'd with this would be a mid 130 horse come the end of the summer so you'd hope he'd win this today and 12/1 is a very big price considering.
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Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May
easy to find' date=' not sure about that but i think i know what you mean[/quote'] "Easy" is the wrong word tbf. Picking the winner in the Chester Cup or any competitive 16+ runner handicap is never easy. And of course it's easy to say in hindsight but the animal had form over a similar trip, loves fast ground, for a trainer that excels at this meeting and first time away from Ian Williams - which means its probably well handicapped. Won exactly the same staying race for Ian Williams at Ascot as Ille De Re did for the same trainer before going into winning this race last year. Almost identical profiles. -
Re: The Trainers Thread This could be a tad premature but it seems the Ferdy Murphy yard is finally hitting form! The sun's come out and Ferdy has had 3 winners from his last 4 runners. Very good trainer but his stables been crazily out of form for over 2 years now - that means one thing tons of very well handicapped horses!!! Because the horses have been so badly out of form there will most likely be some big priced winners before the bookies catch up. Never be put off by a big early price with Ferdy's horse as all his money goes on in the last 10 mins. Bigger the price the bigger the bet in the next few weeks I think. Can't wait to see horses like The Holinwell run well again - probably 30lbs well in that one!
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Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Exactly the same profile as last years winner. First run for a good trainer after leaving Ian Williams yard. Easy to find and a decent price! These long distance races are the only flat races I can pick the winner.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
As expected' date=' On His Own available at 10s now. That's me enticed. Waited 12 months for this race having been gutted when he fell last year and fingers crossed can get my compensation! Post will be up in a bit.[/quote'] Ladbrokes and Hills going 12/1 the field tomorrow morning so probably best to wait until then. -
Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I quite like Rare Bob. It's been prepped for the race and trained by Dessie Hughes who has a runner come close almost every year. He's the trends pick as well. He meets 10 of 11 Bowles trends. The only trend he fails on is "14/15 - Ran over fences between 10 - 27 times". He's had 28 chases. That alone wouldn't put me off. He had a lovely prep run last month posting an RPR of 152 over an inadequate trip and he'll have come on for that run. Runs off a mark of 140 so clearly well handicapped. He's won a grade 1 chase so clearly has the class and 4th in an Irish national so clearly stays. He jumped like a stag last first few fences last year before being brought down (nothing the horse could've done to avoid it). Only negative you'd say is that he's 11 now - but a very well treated 11 year with lots of experience and no falls to his name. This might not be a "sexy" national horse but 22/1 could just be a decent each way price.
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Re: Tuesday 3:20: Champion Hurdle Just incase anyone isn't already aware Denis ORegan admitted yesterday in the official Cheltenham preview he will be attempting to make all on Countrywide Flame. I'm hoping Rock on Ruby will apply pressure to ensure a proper gallop and hopefully that'll set it up for Zarkandar!
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Re: Cheltenham trends and stats Fascinating reading these trends and always nice when a couple of horses you've backed are the trend selections. for the JLT I'm really keen on Knockara Beau and pretty sure he meets all Bowles trends (unless you count his run in May as a run this season - which I suppose technically it is but he's had a summer break since!) The horse is well handicapped based on 6th in last years Gold Cup and 4th in the Pertempts (off a 14lb higher mark!). The horse love the hill at Cheltenham always finishes its races very strongly and the softer conditions will definitely suit this horse. He's finally got its ground at a festival, good form behind Reve De Sivola and Oscars Whisky recently and Paddy Brennan keeps the ride. This animal has so much in its favour.
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Re: william hill 10/1 on long run Is this just win only? If its each way as well that's a cracking offer because Long run is never out of the first three. Even if its win only ill back it now and lay on the day
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13
Story has been deleted now so not sure what your getting at. But the racing is about 2/5 odds on to go ahead now so that would have been a good bet! I did update everyone yesterday when it started snowing heavily but fortunately there was less than an inch in the end and a lot of that has melted today anyway!
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 I don't mean to put a downer on things after my very upbeat post on the weather yesterday but looking outside I feel obliged to update you all. We were predicted 1-2 cm overnight which wouldn't be a problem but the skies have opened and we've just had half an inch in the last 30 minutes. It's coming thick and fast and doesn't look like stopping at the moment :( Fortunately there's now a backup plan with racing allowed to go ahead on Sunday if we're not for to race on Saturday, and whilst I'm hopeful the forecasters are right and we get positive temperatures on Friday/Saturday some racing will go ahead at Cheltenham this weekend. But I'm certainly not as confident as I was yesterday
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Re: Cheltenham Decisions - which race It's well known they've had the Gold Cup in mind for SDC since it won the handicap hurdle at Cheltenham a couple of years ago. I can remember last year at the Chelteham preview night Gordon Elliott said he'd win at the festival (2012) before going onto win the Gold Cup. SportingBet offered him 66-1 and I've been kicking myself for not taking that ever since. Definitely the horse to take out of the Lexus. Never jumped or travelled like he did at Cheltenham but still right there at the end. I'd be most interested in First Lieutenant dropping back to the Ryanair trip. Outstayed by Bob's Worth in the RSA, outstayed at Newbury in the Hennessey and outstayed in the Lexus. That one beat Rock On Ruby over 2m5f at Cheltenham the year before so would definetely be of interest in the Ryanair. As for Son of Flicka surely he'll have another go at the Coral Cup. And the way he's been campaigned means he'll be only 2lbs higher than last year on the day. Could be the next Buena Vista and 33's looks massive. I love how McCain's had an excuse for this one every race his season on his Betfair blog, going, trip, course, etc, when it's blatantly obvious the horse has just been unfit. He'll be right come Cheltenham and is probably 10lb's well in!
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 I saw at lunchtime today Cheltenham Trial day was 6/4 to go ahead and was going to tip that up as my ante-post bet of the season. Been backed into even money now but there's still probably some value in that. It should be odds on to go ahead. I live 20 minutes drive away from the racecourse and go to the gym in Cheltenham every other day. On Friday we had 3 inches of snow (racecourse possibly had 4 because it's a bit higher). We also had a sprinkling last night/this morning but through the day that turned to sleet and we've been at +2 degrees most of the day so the thaw has definitely started. Most areas only have 1/2 cm snow now and I'd be confident nearly all of that will go tomorrow if we have similar weather. Cheltenham said the course is raceable so long as the snow clears off the covers. I think we're due 1-3 degrees Celsius Friday with 12mm of rain, so as long as that is rain and not snow you'd have to be very confident.
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Re: Barney Curley..... The end of Barney Curley as a trainer, yes. In the last couple of years all his horses opened at a short prices and contracted very quickly with small amounts of money. I'm not surprised he's 'retired' (nobody's going to take a real bet on a Barney Curley trained horse these days), but I imagine we'll hear his name again in year or two's time when we, and most importantly the bookies, least expect it.
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13
Bet365 have quoted me 66/1! Madness - they must be feeling festive. Either that or they don't know the horse is now with Nicholls. Had a very big bet on at the price and can lay off nearer the time at a shorter if I decide to.There's also a horse the market seems to have missed out completely. People seem to be presuming Hinterland is an Arkle horse, but Paul Nicholls arkle horse isn't even in the betting yet! Just last month Highclere bought a really nice horse called Bury Parade for £100k in the sales at Cheltenham. That horse beat a decent one of Donald McCain's Super Duty by 2 lengths on its first chase start and now it's with a trainer who can get a horse fit I expect a lot more improvement. I expect that one will be less than 10/1 on the day with the connections. -
Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 There's also a horse the market seems to have missed out completely. People seem to be presuming Hinterland is an Arkle horse, but Paul Nicholls arkle horse isn't even in the betting yet! Just last month Highclere bought a really nice horse called Bury Parade for £100k in the sales at Cheltenham. That horse beat a decent one of Donald McCain's Super Duty by 2 lengths on its first chase start and now it's with a trainer who can get a horse fit I expect a lot more improvement. I expect that one will be less than 10/1 on the day with the connections.
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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Have to agree with BKI. I cannot believe the horse is as short as 9/4 after 1 victory where it beat nothing. Everyone seems to be putting it on a pedestal with SS saying it won't get beaten. I can't be having that at all. The horse put in a good round of jumping but nothing spectacular and the horse was never under pressure. I've been just as impressed with Oscars Well's and Overturn's jumping so far. The aeroplane beat Peddlers Cross by 15 lengths jumping impeccably on it's jumping debut and there was still a bigger price available after than you can get about Simonsig now. Simonsig was a better hurdler, but this is a different sport altogether and how the price is justified I do not know. It's not like there's no competition either. Overturn, Oscar's Well, Arvika Ligeonniere and stablemate Captain Conan have all been very impressive, and we're yet to see Montbazon and Colour Squadron - the latter I've heard very good things about and is massively overpriced at 50/1. If you can forgive Colour Squadron one bad run at Cheltenham it's form is very strong (including still being on the bridle against Simonsig when it fell at Aintee). And the way that horse jumps a hurdle makes you think it will really take to chasing.
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Re: Race In Focus - Hennessy Gold Cup - Newbury Racecourse - 1st December 2012 Frisco Depot is undoubtedly for me the most interesting horse, and potentially the best handicapped horse, but saying it's a certainty is ridiculous. He's my bet as well and I believe the horse will go off much shorter (the late money will come for it), but after the heavy fall last time I would be quite as confident as you fella. 2lb's overweight also has to be an issue (it means if the horse loses by 2 lengths or less the overweight has lost you your money) - if Noel Fehily was on board with 10-1lb on his back I'd be much more confident. Saying that I am glad to see the horse has been given a tongue tie. It clearly didn't settle last time and think that will really help.
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Re: Race In Focus - Hennessy Gold Cup - Newbury Racecourse - 1st December 2012
I would love to know how you came to the conclusion he is held by DOL. Watching the race back the other day I think he was arguably travelling better than the winner when he fell. However, he was running freely in the early stages so whether he'd have stayed on to beat Roberto Goldback is debatable. I would however agree with the comment about Waley-Cohen. It's not so much the jockey's reputation, more that he's a 5 pound claimer and he'll have to do overweight for sure. I believe Frisco Depot could be the best handicapped horse in the race, he's unexposed and I think Charlie Longsdon will get improvement out of him. The ground isn't an issue with this horse - in fact it's a positive, but the concern is he took quite a heavy fall last time out. However, saying that, it isn't always the best handicapped horse that wins this race, quite the opposite really. I backed The Giant Bolster last year, who turned out to be easily the best handicapped horse, but after a fall last time out (similar to Frisco Depot) he clearly needed it as a confident booster). Carruthers and Diamond Harry, however, have done nothing since winning. I believe this race is more about finding the right sort of horse so I'll be interested to see what the trend experts come up with. Bob's Worth looks like the right sort of horse and even with the heavy ground, maybe 4/1 is too big. Saying that, I think my tentative pick would have to be Frisco Depot, even with the negatives. If he settle's early, runs prominently and isn't too careful following his fall last time out, I'd imagine it'd have a very good chance.Frisco Depot is held by DOL IMO and I wont be backing anything with Waley-Cohen on board. -
Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 You may be right but I'm not convinced. The horse was never ridden out and you can be sure had McCoy asked the question it would've finished a lot nearer. McCoy is clearly a top jockey but one of the main reason he gets so many winners IMO is because he always looks after the horse. If it isn't going to win it will never have a hard race. How many times will a McCoy horse finish second or third? Not often. Especially when he rides for JP. If the money isn't down the horse will normally be eased down and tail off, until it's on the right mark to win a race. Whether it's a class five at Folkestone or Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham he'll ride the same way with the same Instructions. I'm convinced when the money comes for Kid Cassidy next, the horse will win. Temperament or not.
National Hunt Racing > Saturday November 8th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday November 8th Interesting selection as Bertimont would be my lay of the day! I thought it was badly handicapped going into the Chepstow race where it was very weak in the market. No one wanted to make the gallop, eventually Bertimont went forward and stole a 30 length lead (whilst still going slowly) with everything else being restrained and pulling for their head. Every horse finished the race a fresh horse with some terrible judgement from the jockeys in behind whilst Harry stole the race on Bertimont. Unbelievably the winner has gone up 10lbs for that farce of a race. On paper he looks the worst handicapped horse in training in my honest opinion - there's nothing in the form book that justifies a mark of 130 yet along 148. Maybe he'll be that good in time but I think it's an almighty gamble to suggest he'll be running to mid-150's today (which he'd need to to win). Whether you're right or I'm right we'll find out later I guess, but even at the prices I'd much rather have a horse of Irving's profile and graded wins to his name, in a race Paul Nicholls has won 6 times in recent years.