thehulk
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Posts posted by thehulk
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This service is run by Richard Mawer and he charges £60/month for his selections and laying system. I'm a pro punter but not an expert in horses and no ambition to be, hence I thought I could put some money into a bank and let this run. However I'm now into week 3 and the results are dreadful. In summary I am down 30 points from his backing system, 11 points from his lay system, and 3 points to pay for the monthly service. This totals -44 points at nearly £900. His site is full of PR crap but these are the real numbers since I joined him. Am I right to be concerned? Should I stop with him? Or is this normal variance I should deal me? He assured me his biggest down turn was -18 points from backing, well I have almost doubled that in 3 weeks. My first thoughts are just to quit with this servie, seems like a terrible service full of PR crap with no substance, his laying system has a better SR than tipping (1 win so far in week3). However I would welcome some advice from people who know more about these things than I do. Thanks.
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Re: Tennis - 7-13 November Court is soooo slow, will change many things (if decisions were based on last year).
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Not got much time but here are a few for today (take it or leave it, I dont have time for write ups): Baghdatis + 5.5 Evens B365 Bartoli under 19.5 4/5 SJames Kie -3.5 1.75 Unibet Del P. -3.5 1.87 Unibet Roddick +4.5 11/10!! PP. Crackign price. 1 unit on each. Some of my bets are with more than 1 bookie (cos of amount) but this is best price I got. Gl.
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November
About +9 points, 4/4, hope some others made some off it too.Have a few for tomorrow but dont have all the lines yet. For starters: A) Anderson under 20.5 @ 1.83 bet365 5/10 Surprised this line is this high tbh, I expect at least 1 break per set, Anderson too classy. Added: B) Malisse + 6.5 @ 1.80 (2/10) The punk wont go down easy, the court will make his serve not so easy to break and we dont know what condition Novak is in and also how much hes going for it. Seems a big line for novak to cover and the punk wont be affriad to play him and leads the h2h 1-0. C) Wawrinka less than 21.5 @ Evenish (various 2/10) Home turf will help here and Dodig is playing some of the worse tennis you are liekly to see. Can all change on the day ofc but based on current events wawrinka should win with plenty. D) Kei + 4.5 about 2.2ish (1/10) Slighly risky this one but it has more that even mone chance. E) Neiminen/Bellucci I cant yet find a way to exploit the condition of both players but this is one to stay close to and trade as I feel there could be opportunities here as the picture becomes clearer. -
Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November
Yeah' date=' unfortunately hadn't heard that when I took the bet this morning. Shown on Spanish TV complaining about his shoulder and seemed to be in a bit of pain. Big drift on his odds before the start, so looks like I'll just have to write that one off really...[/quote'] He hurt his shoulder at about 1300 this afternoon on the practice court. Thats arond when I first heard. He seems to be making a come back so fingers crossed for you boys. -
Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November
Almagro is carrying an injury, its why nobody is going near him. He may well come through but lots of whispers that he isnt 100% fit (shoulder). Be careful.Nice result for Pospisil yesterday, so on to a couple for today: Almagro -2.5 to beat Monaco. Evens @ Victor Chandler While both these players prefer to play on the clay, they are both capable of playing on the hard courts as well. Monaco has good memories of Valencia having beaten Andy Murray in straight sets here last year, but has struggled a bit since the US Open, not having recording a victory since being crushed by Federer at Flushing Meadows. Almagro's form is not much better, but he has history in Valencia, having won the title here twice and reaching another final. Admittedly, they were when the tournament was played on clay, but the courts here are pretty slow and I think Almagro will fancy his chances of progressing to the next round. Malisse +5.5 to beat Novak Djokovic. 2.1 @ Victor Chandler Djokovic has had an incredible year, but he hasn't played since retiring from the Davis Cup tie against Del Potro over six weeks ago. Questions have to be raised about his physical condition and while I don't expect him to lose here, Malisse should be able to keep it respectable. The courts in Basel seem fairly fast, which will help Malisse with his big serve, who looks to be finding some form again after decent performances in Stockholm and Vienna. -
Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Have a few for tomorrow but dont have all the lines yet. For starters: A) Anderson under 20.5 @ 1.83 bet365 5/10 Surprised this line is this high tbh, I expect at least 1 break per set, Anderson too classy. Added: B) Malisse + 6.5 @ 1.80 (2/10) The punk wont go down easy, the court will make his serve not so easy to break and we dont know what condition Novak is in and also how much hes going for it. Seems a big line for novak to cover and the punk wont be affriad to play him and leads the h2h 1-0. C) Wawrinka less than 21.5 @ Evenish (various 2/10) Home turf will help here and Dodig is playing some of the worse tennis you are liekly to see. Can all change on the day ofc but based on current events wawrinka should win with plenty. D) Kei + 4.5 about 2.2ish (1/10) Slighly risky this one but it has more that even mone chance. E) Neiminen/Bellucci I cant yet find a way to exploit the condition of both players but this is one to stay close to and trade as I feel there could be opportunities here as the picture becomes clearer.
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Not like the bookies have had too long to get tomorrows lines out! I dont know how they can manage their books effeciently with so much pissing around, pinnacle really are a cut above in terms of professionalism.
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Added in running: Baghdatis to beat Troicki @ 1.70 Seems up for this, focused and causing problems for Troicki.
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Been tradign Simon but out now for small green. Stats suggest (and common sense) if this goes to a 3rd Simon runs away with it. Handicaps not dead yet but will be hard :( fingers crossed.
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November Too many flips today so just one small bet: Melzer V's Young over 22.5 Evens General (1/10) Young has a real chance here, I dont see value in the handicap at +2.5 games but I do see young putting up a real battle. Youngs form has been decent of late and he beat Melzer recently. I beleive the overs is the better play but im still in 2 minds about this so I may also back young out right (in running)/trade during the game.
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Re: Tennis - 31 October - 6 November
I'm in the middle of my research for todays plays, but I find it very hard to justify putting anything on Simon at the moment, and this game could end up 6-1 6-1 to either player. Simon has 0 interest in Tennis for now and we have no idea which Simon will bother to turn up. If hes up for it he should cover the line with ease, but he makes prefer a week at home rather than playign tennis. I'm going to trade this match assuming I can get a stream on tennistv as there could be some huge swings. gl.A couple for me today ... - Daniel Gimeno-Traver +2.5 games (v Fabio Fognini in Valencia) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 7pts I'm not one to often get involved in matches with Gimeno-Traver, but I think he's definitely backable today. He's from Valencia, and last year took to these conditions well and defeated Nicolas Almagro. Although clay is his best surface, he can be competitive indoors, especially against someone like Fognini. I just don't trust the Italian off the clay. He's a talented player but mentally he's very weak and is prone to severe haemorrages in concentration. He's one of those players who totally gives up when things aren't going his way, and his indoor record is pretty meek, if truth be told. He does have the advantage in the H2H, but the majority of those matches have come on clay. Gimeno-Traver is a much more powerful player and I think his game is more suited to these conditions than Fognini's, especially with serve. Fognini doesn't have a great deal of power and I could see Gimeno-Traver out-hitting him. I had the odds a lot closer than this, so the handicap, in my book, appears sound. - Gilles Simon -3.5 games (v Nikolay Davydenko in Valencia) @ 2.07 with Pinnacle 4pts I really think Davydenko is a spent force these days. He used to be a tremendous indoor player, but his powers have waned considerably. This was shown last week in Vienna, where he was beaten by Steve Darcis, throwing away a 5-0 lead in the final set. Having watched that match, there were certain elements of the Russian's game that make him vulnerable to decent players. His serve is extremely weak and easily picked on, and his groundstrokes lack the snap that once had him in the top 5. In short, he appears a declining force. Simon is a very handy indoors player indeed. He's a counterpuncher who can rally for hours and certainly has the upper hand on the Russian. He leads the H2H 5-1 and has covered this line before when Davydenko was in his pomp. There's always the threat of Davydenko returning to something near his best, but the signs aren't there at present. He looks a sitting duck to me against Simon and I'm happy to play the line at good odds. -
Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Was a shame Brands took a few games to warm up at the start on the match. When I tuned back in at 6-5 the commentator said he was the better player and controlling the game. I had visions of him winning that tie break!! Nice result I think for all of us.:cheers Don't see anything that I like today, had a nice week so will take a day off.
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October
When was the last time Tsonga put in a top performance and went through the gears? He didnt mange to change gear V's Kei and hes on a downward spiral imo, out of the top ten. He could have lost today V;s a punk and if Nieminen was not injured he would have probably lost. Brands serve has been outstanding this week, on a par with Anderson imo. Even with the bye, Tsonga has probably spent more time on court getting here. This could be a very close game, and to cover 5.5 will be easy imo. Ofc anything can happen, but looks big value to me and just what I am looking for.How much does Brands have left in the tank? He's done well to get this far but barring Stepanek, look who he's had to beat. Darcis and Fischer are not exactly world-beaters. It's all on Tsonga's racket. He's been average too but we know he's got several gears he can bounce through if need be. And by all accounts, he was playing a lot better come the end of the match with Malisse last night. You're counting on a big performance from Brands to get these lines covered, against a top 10 player, whose best conditions are indoors. It's a risk, and for me, you'd need some good odds to take that risk, not 1.80 dwellers, which is essentially what's happening. Not saying it won't come up, but adding some 'devil's advocate thinking' to the debate. -
Re: Tennis - 24-30 October should be yes, but I prefer the handicap here. Pin line got hammered!!!! Offerign 1.78 now!! Hahahahah.
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Pinnacle released line: +4.5. (2.2) I'm on that too with PP and Pin. gl if u play it.
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October They lowered the price now, yea bet365 and paddypower, but the lines been cut. Wait for others to offer it up if you want to play it, I'm wiating for it elsewhere and will ahmmer it as soon as its up.
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Its £75 and you get worked up about it? If you get worked up over peanuts you got no chance for the long run, forget it and move on. Anyway...... Brands + 5.5 10/10 Been waiting for the line and been hammering it where ever I can. Got average of 1.72 and snapping it up everywhere. Brands been a monster this week, hes almost unbreakable and could even win the game. Play speaks for itself. This is a 10/10 for me.
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October Tennis is a game of fine lines, if a player lacks the motivation to put it all on the line they are liekly to lose. Never over extend on such players, its an improtant learnign curve.
If two snails were having a race and the one that Psycho was betting on was losing' date=' he'd claim it was a fix. There's no surprise that he's slating Aza for being a fixer.[/quote'] Coem on, if Psycho tipped in a two horse race his pick is doomed before the off! :) Hope your form turns pyscho. -
Re: Tennis - 24-30 October
Be slightly careful with Nieman. I ahve backed him out right for the event but: A) He picked up an injury yesterday, no idea how he will do today B) the line starts at 21.5+, no way you can get 19.5 from what I know. If he was fit I would be on lines on this match but I dont know if he is fit enough to play let alone compete to the level he needs to.Hi guys, 2 picks for today: WTA ISTANBUL RADWANSKA TO DEFEAT ZVONAREVA @ 2.05 on betfair ATP VIENNA NIEMINEN-TSONGA OVER 19.5 GAMES @ 1.83 on bet365 Zvonareva had shoulder problems in Moscow and Radwanska with 3 straight wins over Zvonareva in the past 2 months should have an advantage. Nieminen played great in Stockholm last week getting to the final and hitting a lot of winners and was unlucky to lose there to Monfils. It should not be an easy win for Tsonga, especially considering the head-to-head record. -
Re: Cricket: India vs England ODI Series & T20 International Fine, I cba with this. Thought you wanted expereinced players views, views from people who do this for a living and for serious amounts of money, but whatever, will leave and not contribute. gl to all.
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Re: Cricket: India vs England ODI Series & T20 International Thanks. Got to back your judgement, but to say I had an eximination of my balls is an understatement, I feel I had them squashed in a vice. Really over extended myself and was in for lot more that I should have been (would have been painful). Was still laying England still at 1.50, starting greening up at 1.80 and now fully green for about 14 units. TBH I was happy to get out without losing a lot, but if had I had a tougher mental state I would have let it ride for about 40-50 units profit. But I'm happy just to be out, was a bad trade from me, I've been in this game too long too make such silly over extanding mistakes.:spank and :gimme
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Re: Cricket: India vs England ODI Series & T20 International I expect England to struggle from about here (62-0), indeed I hope so as I have backed this big.
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Re: Tennis - 24-30 October I dont trust Garcia lopez at all, you never know what you going to get. Its possible and he could cover the handicap but unliklely to win out right on current form imo.
Advice please - Racing Profits Service
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Advice please - Racing Profits Service Indeed you are right, but you cannot be an expert in every sport hence why I wanted to know what is normal variance for systems like this?