Northwestpunter
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Posts posted by Northwestpunter
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Re: La Liga > October 29th - 31st I must admit I've backed Getafe DNB @ 1.94 Sbobet Getafe are unbeaten at home this season, have never lost at home to Bilbao in La Liga. The hosts are decent side, in good form who don't lose many at home. Bilbao are are also a strongish home side, but they are generally poor on their travels, and in each of the last 2 seasons they have won only 4 of their 19 away fixtures in La Liga.......they also have a habit of conceding plenty on the road. The 2 sides have finished each of the last 2 seasons within a couple of points of each other in the League table - so they are quite evenly matched...........and a draw here is a fair possibility - hence I'm playing the DNB market. I had Getafe down as a 2.2 shot on the -0.5 market and around the 1.7 mark on the DNB market.........but they are an "unfashionable club" and I can only assume that is the reason why the markets are underestimating their chances tonight. 1.94 Draw No Bet about Getafe is a bigger price than it should be!
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Re: Ligue 1 Orange > October 25th - 27th 2-2 well done once again meatman! takes some guts to oppose PSG in the sort of form they've been in recently!
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Re: Israel > Ligat Ha'al > 2013-14 well done Setup! Hapoel defended really well especially in the second half.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 24th ZULTE WAREGEM v MARIBOR ZULTE WAREGEM -0.5 1.77 Sbobet For my sins I have watched all of Wigan's home matches this season (I'll be setting of for tonight's match in just over an hour), as well as the away match against Zulte Waregem. There is no science to my pick.......just the evidence of my own eyes! I thought that Wigan were quite lucky to come away from Belgium with a 0-0 draw against Waregem (who were certainly the better side and had the better chances). Whilst a fortnight ago I was at the DW stadium watching a very poor Maribor side being comfortably beaten 3-1 by a Latics side who didn't get out of 2nd gear once they had cruised into a 2-0 lead. Maribor are certainly, by some distance, the worst team that I have seen Wigan play this season ...........a lot worse than any Championship team! Their defence is awful and it is no surprise that they have lost their last 7 away games in the Europa league. Wigan would and should have beaten them by 4 or 5 goals, but they took their foot of the pedal after half-time when they were 2-0 up. Having seen both Zulte Waregem and Maribor in the flesh in recent weeks, I would be very surprised if Zulte Waregem didn't comfortably beat the Slovenians. I rate Zulte Waregem slightly better than Wigan............yet Wigan were -0.5 1.57 to beat Maribor a fortnight ago!!!!! 1.67 or better is top value about the Belgians who have beaten Anderlecht and Belgian League leaders Standard Liege in recent weeks.
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Re: West Ham v Manchester City > Saturday October 19th WEST HAM +1.0 1.75 SBOBET Hammers' boss Sam Allardyce has always relished taking on the big clubs with every premiership side he's managed. His record at home to the top sides is very credible. I can remember years ago, at Bolton, very few of the top sides won at the Reebok under Allardyce. Last season West Ham at Upton Park took points from both Manchester clubs and Chelsea. Allardyce is particularly adept at coming up with an effective gameplan to stifle better opponents, when his team are underdogs - he tends to struggle more when his team are favourites, and expected to win. I expect the Hammers to try and frustrate City, and try and hit them with quick counter attacks - using the pace of Morrison and Vaz Te. Last season in 19 home league matches, only Arsenal beat the Hammers by more than 1 goal. I believe that West Ham have every chance of taking at least a point from this game - but just to be on the safe side, I have backed them on the +1.0 market as I think it highly unlikely that city will win by more than the odd goal.
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Re: World Cup South America Qualification > Wednesday October 16th CHILE v ECUADOR CHILE -0 &-0.5 1.76 SBOBET As I said in my Peru v Bolivia preview, I've watched most of the South American qualifiers, and with the exceptions of Argentina and Columbia, Chile are the team that have impressed me the most. The hosts have been in particularly good form this year, playing fantastic, fast-flowing attacking football. In 2013 Chile have played 11 won 7 drawn 3 lost 1 (away in Peru) and some of their performances and results have been eye-catching (2-2 draws against Brazil and Spain, and a fantastic first half display last weekend in Columbia, where they were 3-0 up and cruising until a harsh sending-off changed the game completely). Visitors Ecuador have always been a strong side at home......and poor travellers! Ecuador have yet to win an away match in the qualifying group. Of course I'm well aware (as everyone is) that a draw would take both teams through, but I believe that Chile will do their upmost to try and win the game.......Ecuador will probably be content to sit back and soak up pressure. I expect either a narrow victory for Chile or a draw. In the circumstances I am prepared to risk losing half my stake on the -0 & -0.5 line in the event of a draw, as I believe that the odds-on the draw are too short, and the prices on a Chile win too generous. The hosts are an exciting team, in good form, playing at home to an inferior side with a poor away record. At the end of the day both sides will almost certainly qualify anyway....whatever the result here......as I can't see Uruguay beating Argentina by a big score.
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Re: World Cup South America Qualification > Wednesday October 16th PERU v BOLIVIA PERU -0.5 1.67 Pinnacle Home advantage of course is massive in South America, and both of these teams typify that fact. Both are reasonably strong at home .....and hopeless away from home! Bolivia have a record of Played 27 Won 0 Drawn 7 Lost 20 in all of their away matches stretching back more than 6 years! Peru have a respectable home record of Played 20 Won 12 Drawn 4 Lost 4 in all home matches stretching back over 4 years. In the last 15 head to heads between these two sides........the away team has never won! I've watched quite a few of the South American qualifying matches, and I have to say that Peru certainly look the stronger of these two......... in their last home match against Uruguay they were much the better side until a red card and a penalty at the end of the first half gave the visitors the advantage. At home they are a force to be reckoned with, and I expect them to see off Bolivia.
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Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th I don't normally contribute to this thread - but feel I have to back up Ships and addpea. I worked as a football odds-compiler for over 15 years for 3 of the major UK bookmakers. Trust me.......Ships and addpea know far more about non-league football than any odds-compiler I have ever worked with or come across! At most Firms it is the most fresh faced junior compiler who is tasked with pricing up non-league football - none of them ever watch any of the games, most of them don't read the match reports, and they usually spend just an hour or so a week pricing the games up by just taking a quick look at the league tables and recent results! Yes bookies are professionals, but most of them spend little time studying non-league football. I worked for the Tote, Betfred and IG Index and I know that to be true!
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Re: Ligue 2 > October 4th - 7th Well done once again Meatman. I'm an ex-football odds-compiler (I didn't specialise on French Football!), and I know many current and former football compilers whose knowledge of the Leagues on which they compile is outstanding ..........I've been following you're posts for the last few years and I would have to say that you're knowledge of the French Leagues is as good as anyone I've ever come across. Well done again!!
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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 10th September Lithuania v Liechtenstein UNDER 2.5/3.0 goals 1.72 sbobet 16.30 kick-off Both of these sides feature in many a low - scoring affair. Hosts Lithuania have gone under 2.5 goals in 9 out of their last 12 home games stretching back nearly 4 years, whilst visitors Liechtenstein have gone under 2.5 goals in 9 out of their last 13 away matches, a run stretching back more than 3 years. The Liechtenstein team is not nearly as bad as many think - it is certainly a fair bit better than the likes of San Marino, Andorra and the Faroes. All of the Liechtenstein players are professionals - 6 play for Vaduz in the Swiss 2nd division (a league that would not be much different in quality to the Lithuanian top division), whilst a couple play for St Gallen in the Swiss Super League, and another couple play in the Austrian Bundesliga. I watched most of the Liechtenstein v Greece match on Friday night - and although Greece fully deserved their 1-0 win, the hosts defended well, made things difficult and created 2 or 3 decent chances. Lithuania are not much better than Liechtenstein, and whilst they will probably win narrowly, it will not be as easy as many think. Whilst I have backed under 2.5/3.0 goals to try and be safe, I would not put anyone off the under 2.5 goals at 1.91 with sbobet, or indeed Liechtenstein +1.5/2.0 at 1.67 with sbobet. I believe it will be a tight game. kick off in 45 mins
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Re: Jordan Cup 18/7/2013
Nice one! Good info! Had a decent bet on Mansheiat at +0.5That Ras & Mansheiat Bani Hasan 2.10 3.25 3.00 Bet365 The game first of all wont be at That Ras Main stadium so the home team dont have any home advantage , they will play the game in other stadium ( better Pitch reason ) Just becuase this That Ras team will play in AFC cup this coming season and they are now looking for better Football Pitch . add to this That Ras who lost last week Jordan super cup 2-0 will miss more important players , the team manager will Rest his Important striker and will try new lines up becuase last game they played all players looked tired and could not even Finish the game and should have lost more than 2-0 very easy . the team of That Ras sold all the main defenders and the manager said after last defeat ( we sold main 6 players and we faild to Replace them becuase we are small club and all big players Refuse to play for us ) real problem for them this season . On other side Mansheiat Bani Hasan full team , got very good players for this season , thier Friendly Results before this game was Impressive too . I see this game very good bet on Mansheiat Bani Hasan NOT to lose so Tomorrow in Asian bookies when we have Mansheiat Bani Hasan +0.5 or even +0.25 worth bet becuase Mansheiat Bani Hasan should not lose this game Second game between Al Ramtha & Al Faisaly I dont like becuase its big derby and both teams news dont help to find bet -
Re: UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July I have also backed LIEPAJAS METALURGS -1.0 &-1.5 @ 1.82 (SBObet) But I can't really add any more to the excellent previews on this game by pg_yid and HastGill1. The Latvian side should beat Prestatyn Town comfortably.
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Re: UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July LEVSKI SOFIA -0.5 @1.68 (Pinnacle, SBObet) Irtysh Pavlodar v Levski Sofia I followed the first match closely last week in Sofia. Irtysh were ultra defensive and showed no attacking intent, whilst Levski had lots of posession but created only a handful of good chances. Levski also missed a penalty near the end and probably should have won 1-0 or 2-0 on balance. Irtysh are just 6th in the Kazakstan league (just 12 teams in the league) and are already 18pts behind leaders Aktobe (who also play tonight) after just 18 rounds of fixtures. Levski finished 2nd in much stronger Bulgarian league last term, just 1pt behind champions Ludogorets. The evidence from the first leg and the teamsheets shows that Levski are a couple of levels above Irtysh class-wise. With Irtysh likely to come out of their defensive shell this afternoon, and show more attacking ambition, I expect Levski to find holes in the Irtysh rearguard on the break. I would expect a 1-0 or 2-0 Levski win.
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Re: Russian Cup quarter final Thurs 18th April FT 0-0 Stakes Returned Rostov won 4-3 on penalties in the end after a mindnumbing, dull 120 mins !
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Re: Bundesliga > 19th - 21st April EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v SCHALKE 04 This match sees two sides with completely contrasting recent form meet. After a great start to the season, Eintracht Frankfurt have fallen away alarmingly in the last couple of months - winning just 1 of their last 9 Bundesliga games (and that was a slightly fortunate 3-2 success over the hapless bottom team, Greuther Furth). I watches Eintracht lose 2-0 at struggling Augsburg last weekend, and they were very poor indeed - something that seems to have become a habit during the last couple of months! In contrast Schalke 04, after a mid-season slump, have shown good form in recent weeks - just 1 defeat in their last 8 games, and showed fighting spirit to come from 0-2 down to grab a vital 2-2 draw wth Leverkusen last weekend. Schalke are desperate to hold onto 4th place in the Bundesliga and secure Champions League football for next season. At present they are only 1pt ahead of 5th place Freiburg, and cannot afford to let up during the last 5 games of the season. SCHALKE 04 -0 & -0.5 @ 2.05 SBObet medium stakes
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ROSTOV v TEREK GROZNY I haven't posted a tip for a long time, but since I've got some time on my hands today....here goes. I follow the Russian League fairly closely and have watched both of Rostov's last 2 games on streaming. Performances and results have improved in recent weeks and the home side were somewhat unfortunate not to come away from Rubin Kazan with more than a 1-1 draw in the last round of league matches - creating the better chances and frustrating Rubin (who lets not forget beat Chelsea at home only days earlier and knocked Athletico Madrid out of the Europa League) for long periods. Rostov also beat a useful Spartak Moscow side at home the week before, and have been playing much better, even in defeat than they were earlier in the season. Opponents Terek Grozny are without a win in their last 7 competitive games, and after a bright start to the season, they seem to be struggling for any kind of form. Also worth pointing out that Rostov are unbeaten in 90 mins in all Russian Cup games since 2007. They are taking this CUP game very seriously with all of the right noises coming from the coach and players. In addition Terek have not won in Rostov for over 6 years. Although this will probably be a tight match, with extra time a fair possibility, I believe that Rostov should be slight favourites here - and I was pleasantly surprised given the contrast in the two sides recent form - to find that the bookies had Terek as favourites for this one. ROSTOV @ 2.15 DNB with Pinnacle is value. medium stakes.
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Re: Denmark > Superliga > 2012-13
Nice one! Followed you in.Jesus christ i need an edit button. Under 2.5 @ 1.7 -
Re: Denmark > Superliga > 2012-13
Unlucky with the 13th minute Red Card - Esbjerg still almost snatched a draw despite playing 77mins with 10 men.I'm not sure if anybody actually reads here, but this game today has a clear winner in my eyes. I know it started at 3.1, but it still has plenty of value. Sønderjydske - Esbjerg Esbjerg being in outstanding form, really good in the defense, and lives on the counters. They have let in 2 goals the last 6 games, which is a brilliant way to start up the season after the long winter. Part of the reason why Sønderjydske is doing so terribly, is because they have sold top scorer Quincy Antipas to Brøndby, also letting their midfielder O'Brien go to defending champions Nordsjælland. This have meant they havent scored in their last 5 games, except from the odd 5-0 win against Silkeborg (strange things happen in our league sometimes ;) ) I don't think Sønderjydske have enough offensive potential to threat here, against a team that shares the least goals scored against them, together with FCK and Nordsjælland. Esbjerg to win - 2.4 Esbjerg win to nill - 4 -
Re: Porto V Malaga > Tuesday 19th February
You are both right!One of you is correctly quoting the +1.0 Malaga ASIAN H'CAP price which is currently around 1.77 - 1.80The other is quoting the ENGLISH Bookmakers H'CAP price.this is funny. Maybe a third party will correct us. take care. -
Re: England > Npower Football League Championship > 19th - 20th November Millwall v Bristol City BRISTOL CITY +0.5 @ 2.21 Pinnacle Bristol City have been showing signs of definite improvement since Derek McInnes moved from St Johnstone to take over the hotseat at Ashton Gate. 7 points from their last 3 games has shown that it has not taken long for the scotsman to start turning things around for the Robins, after an appalling start which brought them just 6 pts from their opening 12 matches under previous gaffer, Keith Millen. In City's first 2 away matches under McInnes, they have beaten Barnsley 2-1 at Oakwell and also held promotion favourites, West Ham to a 0-0 draw at Upton Park. Last time out the Robins comfortably recorded their first home win of the season with a 3-1 success over Burnley. Confidence has returned to the squad, and McInness has already started to make them a side that will be "hard to beat, and hard to play against" particularly on the road. Followers of the SPL will also recall that he did much the same at St Johnstone, on limited resources, and made them a very difficult side to beat. Opponents Millwall have won their last 2 at home, but those victories came against Ipswich and Coventry - who have both been in poor form lately - and who both play a much more "open" game away from home. There are only 5pts between these two teams, and with City improving under their new manager, I don't think there will be anything between them at the end of the season. Given these facts, it is strange to see Millwall priced up around the 1.70 -1.80 mark. My stats make this one; Home win 48% Draw 29% Away win 23% Therefore the +0.5 about Bristol City should really be around 1.92. 2.21 is real value about the Robins winning or Drawing this one.
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Re: International Friendlies > November
Egypt are probably a class above Gabon' date=' and Brazil could only beat Gabon 2-0, so this bet might be decent value.[/quote'] Gabon are ranked 68 in FIFA's Official Rankings - whilst Egypt are ranked 29. I totally agree. There is often value in going against popular opinion -and popular opinion always seems to overestimate the amount of goals in Brazil's games. Brazil v Egypt UNDER 3.0 goals @ 1.77 SBObet Stakes returned even if Brazil win 3-0. -
Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21 I rarely bet on the Premiership because I usually find that the prices are more or less correct, and there is usually little in the way of value. However I do think that some Firms may have slightly underestimated Arsenal's recent revival. ARSENAL -0.5 @ 1.70 Pinnacle After a disastrous start to the campaign, Arsenal seem to have got some of their old swagger back in recent weeks. Since losing 2-1 to North London rivals Tottenham on 2nd October, the Gunners have gone 7 matches unbeaten in all competitions, winning 6 and drawing the other 0-0 at home to Marseille in the Champions League (when Wenger bizarrely left Van Persie on the bench until the 62nd minute!). Now a place in the Premiership's top 4 looks a distinct possibility. Most of the players who were injured in the early part of the season have returned to the side, confidence seems to have returned, and to my eyes - with the exception of the 2 Manchester Clubs, and posssibly Spurs - the Gunners are probably playing as well as anyone in the League at the moment. Not a good time for opponents Norwich to be meeting them! The Canaries look to me like a team that is just about to nosedive down the Premiership table towards the bottom end. They were very lucky to claim a 3-3 draw at home to struggling Blackburn a couple of weeks back - with a highly dubious injury-time penalty. Norwich were also deservedly beaten at Villa Park last time out, and despite showing spirit, they were second best for long periods. I feel that the Norwich defence will really struggle to cope with Arsenal's pace and movement on the counter attack, and Van Persie could not be in much better form. Arsenal would have been around 4/7 (1.57) for this type of away fixture last season, and my stats have the probabilities for this match at; Home win 17% Draw 21% Away win 62% Therefore odds of 1.7 (58.82%) represent value to me. Some Firms are going 8/13, which is about right, but 4/6 or bigger is worth taking. I might also put some money on the -0.5 & -1.0 line (which is currently around 1.90) as it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Gunners' won this one by a margin of 2 goals or more.
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Re: England > Npower Football League One > 5th November Just the one bet in League One for me this weekend. CHARLTON -0.5 1.70 Pinnacle As I've mentioned before, I'm a PNE season-ticket holder, who also attends many of our away matches. I'm not going to The Valley tomorrow - and I don't expect more than around 400 -500 of our fans to make the long trip (a month or so ago - when we were on our winning run, we'd have taken 1500 - 2000). I also mentioned a few weeks ago just how important Neil Mellor and Iain Hume are to Preston, and how we carry nowhere near the same goal threat, and have nothing like the same creativity without them. Both are out injured again tomorrow, along with promising young striker, Jamie Proctor, Danny Mayor and first choice goalkeeper Iain Turner. Our defence has been poor all season, but when we had all of our strikers fit we were outscoring teams (we twice won 4-3 during our 7 match winning run). However since our strikers have been injured, we have been conceding just as many goals, but understandably, scoring fewer - and consequently we're without a win since Mellor & Hume got injured. Conceding lots of goals and not scoring many is a fatal combination! I do expect PNE to return to form and get back into play-off contention, when our injured players return to the side ( probably around 2 weeks off) - but I'm afraid I can only see a defeat at the Valley tomorrow against the in-form League leaders. 1.70 would be about the right price for Charlton, if we had all of our players fit. But with so many key absentees for Preston, I make Charlton around the 1.57 - 1.60 mark.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November You beat me to it! PAOK Salonica -0.5 @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) This price has been drifting in the last few days, and has now reached a level where PAOK are definite value. At time of writing virtually all UK and European Firms are around 1.8 (4/5 in fractions), or 1.72 (8/11) about the away win - which is the correct price. However there has been money for Shamrock with the Asian Firms and that has brought about value on PAOK. 1.95 on Betfair or Betdaq is also value. Despite an unimpressive 2-1 Home win over Shamrock, there is a gap in class between these two sides. PAOK are not the sort of side who post many 3 or 4 goal maulings, even against inferior teams, so I only expect a 0-1, 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline here. The crowd will be passionate, Shamrock will give everything, but really it shouldn't be enough, PAOK extra quality should tell in the end, at what is now a tasty, value price.
La Liga > October 29th - 31st
in Spanish Football Predictions
Posted
Re: La Liga > October 29th - 31st
0-1 Bet Lost Getafe missed a penalty just before half-time!