betrader
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Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS.
Thanks for the useful pointers' date=' I notice you mention the Warwick university Detech predictor, I don't suppose you have any past data from this site, it would be useful to back test ?[/quote'] Good point Kanga, up to now I have been using Detech as a value pointer to the ratings and have not recorded a database. This could actually initial starting a new thread based on Detech match values, however as stated at present it only covers major European leagues. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS.
Portosummaga VLivorno . ~ serie B. Home = 10% win V top half ~ away = 90% V bottom 6. Current odds forLivorno = AH -0.5 (giving away the draw) = 2.37 ~ MO straight win = 2.46. I have taken the straight win obviously as fair value. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Today I shall publish the logical ratings as I find and after taking action myself on BF but without the full scorelines as it takes too much time to reproduce here whilst studying.
So far ~ WBA V W.HAM ~ 60% overs – 60% BTTS ~ not conclusive for trading the odds. More conclusive is the AH with WBA @ -0.5 = L L W L L ~ W.HAM +0.5 ~ L W W W W. I have been matched @ 2.08 although odds may drift further I believe this is fair value for away side and the draw. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS.
Do you have a fixed cut-off point for top sides in all leagues or have you found they vary. For example in the Premiership you may remove the top 4 teams in the SPL just the top 2, another way of doing this could be looking at past odds where you remove any results against teams at say This point brings me back to early days when starting the quest. It was an original idea to form a separate table within each league ~ without the top sides; in other words the fixture list may have been cruel enough to lumber a moderate team with a number of fixtures against big 4 and top third teams which results in apparent poor form. Then they are pitched against another team which may be higher in the league mainly because they have results against teams of lower ability. Obviously the first quoted team may continue their bad run against what may be considered similar opposition, this is where goal difference is important in determining how good or bad they performed against the recent top sides.
When indicators show a team that has a low minus in goal diff against top teams then not only do they perform better against lower rated sides; often value can be found against the market. These days I do assess matches involving top teams or where the fav is short priced but look for relevant markets where odds pivot around evens ~ example O/U. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS.
Yes you are quite correct in pointing this out Muppet..... 4.75 goals toyou had Atlanta by 4.75 goals??!!Atlanta Atlanta -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS.
The logic rating software uses algorithms based on database recordings of league positions of match dates as stated in the WBA example ~ they drew with Spurs at the time when Spurs were in the lower ability band, not as Spurs are now in higher position.You say that your logistical ratings on Oberhausen for example give results of WWWLD The "Top Sides " concerned were Bochum at 3rd in the current tables with the other Teams at 10th, 14th, 17th, and 18th last. I am somewhat confused here. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. WARNING!
I stated earlier that anyone can use soccerstats.com to assess matches but on assessing the WBA V W.HAM match today I noted WBA drew 1-1 with Spurs earlier in the season when Spurs were in 11th position. Spurs are now 5th in a tight premier season. Soccerstats will show WBA drawing against Spurs in their current position; therefore soccerstats.com data is not entirely accurate! -
Re: Bwin LTD (betoto) closed account and stole my winnings This is a disgrace....have you applied to the gambling commision or ombudsman with your case? Also a warning for everyone to make regular withdrawals from bookie accounts that are registered in offshore countries. Keep up the fight for right to your legal winnings, i hope you have your own personal record of bet transactions.
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Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS.
Frankfurt ( mid 3rd) V B.Leverkusen (top 6).
Not so cut and dried as first thought ~ this match is closely contended.
Logic stats.
Home V top 6 = W 2-1 W 3-2 W 2-1 W 1-0 (BEATDortmund
Overs + 60% BTTS = 60%.Leverkusen Frankfurt + 0).5 = W W W W L.
H/T-F/T market ~Frankfurt W/W = 0 wins in 5 games ~ 0 wins in last 10 overall. BF odds 7.4 back – 8.00 lay ~ note the gap.Leverkusen
Can anyone suggest a trading strat for this game?
I shall research other games in the morning. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Yeah ONEDUNME......my sentements exactly on horse racing, I rarely ever trade in the mugs game of racing. The reason I compared it was as an example.....the beauty of applying logistics to football is that one only has the other team & draw to beat not a whole host of other runners run by gambling stables.
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Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Top sides are relative to possitions held over previous seasons as in the prem we usually expect ManU, Chelsea, Arsenal and what used to be Liverpool, now Man City to gain the most points in a season. In Scotland it's the old firm and spain Barca & Real. Odds on offer for top teams are usually skinny but occasionally can be traded, in fact I am researching Frankfurt V B.Leverkusen (2nd) right now for logic ratings as they are above evens.
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Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Like bairn1 and other number crunchers on this forum I am wary of revealing all my sources but anyone can pull previous results of imediate opponents of same ability simply from soccerstats.com. Not as sophisticated as the software i use but can be as effective. I also cross match fair odds from the Warwick university Detech predictor but their software only covers major European leagues. Since taking the logistical view this season my bank percentage has increased considerably but I must stress in football as you know anything can happen to turn over previous trends; the ref may be wearing a ManU shirt or has forgotten to pick up his prescription from Specsavers. Seriously though, any match can turn on a sixpence but overall logical rating trends do indicate alternative market strategies when applied to fair odds over long term. I shall publish future matches with the view of discusssing the alternative trades that anyone can offer as feedback on the logistic findings for the match. In reply to using five match previous abilities, I have found this to be adequate as in the main there are few qualifying matches in the current season and contrary to ELO I believe previous seasons have no relation to current form, although relevent in regular top teams. The Atlanta match just ended 0-0 as predicted but although the price was skinny it was worth scalping the unders. Oberhousen won 2-0 as logical goal difference indicated; just a case of deciding which markets to trade.
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Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. I have chosen one match from tonight’s games as a prime example.
Bundesliga 2 ~ Oberhousen VPaderborn
Both teams last five finishes in all matches reads ~ home ~ WLLLD ~ away ~ LDWLW. Now if you were to add up the usual scoring of 3 points win, 1 point draw, 0 points for loss, the conclusion would be ~ home 4 points ~ away 7 points. Ladbrokes early price for the game is home 2.6 ~ draw 3.2 ~ away 2.35 (fav). (W) My logistical ratings strip out the fact that Oberhousen has played against top sides in their previous matches whenPaderborn
The logistical ratings reveal a different set of results ~ home W W W L D ~ away ~ L W L D W. This gives a completely different view of the game and I make Oberhousen faves in match odds to win.
Now also instead of using the basic points system for goal difference, I rate goals for and against using similar methods of Arpad Elo in awarding the following points ~ Draw = 0.5 ~ + 1 goal = 1 ~ + 2 goals = 1.5 ~ + 3 goals = 1.75 ~ + 4 goals = 2. The same criteria applies to minus goals where points are deducted.
Therefore Oberhousen’s last five (logistical) scorelines of 3-1 1-0 3-0 1-2 1-1 adds up to + 3.75;Paderborn
Later match ~ serie B ~Atlanta VSiena
Last five home (logistical) = W 4-1 W 2-1 L 0-2 D 0-0 W 1-0’ Away = L 3-0 D 1-1 D 2-2 L 1-0 D 0-0. Goal diff = 4.75 in favour ofAtlanta In this case
Atlanta Atlanta -
LOGISTIC RATINGS.
When assessing any football match most people, including experts and odds compilers, base their calculations on immediate past performance and league position of opposing teams to decide the possible winner or draw in match odds.
Similar methods are used in assessing the chance of a horse winning a race when judging previous finishing positions in previous races. For instance a favourite’s last placings on paper may be 54153211 which to a novice punter may appear to be running into form and worth favouritism on the fact that it has won it’s last two races and placed twice before the wins; however they don’t take into account the fact that the previous four runs were over a different distance and conditions. Taking into consideration the horses last runs over similar distance and conditions, the form readings may well be ~ 5453 ~ not such a favourites chance now is it?
Logistical ratings in assessing football matches should also be based on previous results against teams of similar ability to the immediate opponents. For example the home team currently with just 16 points and in the relegation zone may be playing against a mid table side 32 points. On the face it appears the away side having just had three wins on the bounce will have every chance of winning, after taking into consideration home advantage, after all the home side have lost their last or drawn most of their games. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Cheers David....that was quick calculating, of course one would expect the AH return to be lower on level stakes in the short term. Although I do not advocatr progressive staking methods, it would be interesting to test ALL of the Bairn1 selections on various staking methods, if anyone has a full copy of the Staking Machine. As stated, I use strict bank percentage of bank myself, but may be of interest to other members here. :clap
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Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. The tired old method of laying the draw worked ok in the early exchange days when we were all newbies in trading, but now prices simply don't rise enough to green up for long term profit. The newbies of today still get caught out with their pants down when the dog scores first, even when the fav obliges, the prices can be restrictive. Lately there have been new systems suggesting you only use matches where both teams are closely priced, ie:- no clear fav so no matter who scores the odds will rise, but you may find a high percentage of these matches produce the dreaded 0-0 or low scoring games with late goals. In this scenario traders begin twiching with anxiety as the time deteriation axis shortens faster as final whistle aproaches. Many newbie traders who dont use bank percentage fold up with the pressure of seing the increasing red and get out before the loss becomes greater (only for a goal to go in on the final minutes), it is pure torture for those guys but what more experienced traders make a killing on. Occasionally I take the contrarian view after researching a match and BACK the draw with a view of scalping out early in ascending lays. Small profits add up when compounding bank percentage and more than cover occasional losses!
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Hi Bairn, This is my first time posting here as I am usually posting advice (for what it;s worth over at the betting school. Your method intrigues me as I have been testing out formulas based on a simplified version of ELO which like yourself am wary of posting full details here. Your method is based on mathematical data as my own (ditto), but I am always searching for alternative trades to improve profit on selections. I don't know if anyone has suggested this as I have not followed your thread all through, but I was imediately struck by your results for November for example. Quickly scanning, your results show ~ 8 wins to 10 losses, albeit the prices gained on wins returned a decent ROI. Now what if you were to use a seperate bank and cover the selections on the quarter ball asian handicap. I'm quite sure at prices mentioned, the +0.5 HC would have been available. Price availability will have been shorter but 50% of losses were draws meaning 1/4 ball winners. Your Nov results would then be 13 wins to 5 losses. Again shorter odds but to my mind, increasing win percentage is more important in terms of compounding bank percentage!Here's a full breakdown of November's results...
Total staked = £180 Profit/loss = +£157.70 It's too early for the ROI to be of any significance, but at the moment it's 87.22%! We won't acheive anything like this long term and instead will be looking for around 30%, but long may this good run continue!Date Match Odds P/L P/L Cum Sat 6th Nov Coventry 2 - 3 Leeds 3.25 +£22.50 +£22.50 Tue 9th Nov Kettering 0 - 2 Mansfield 3.19 +£21.90 +£44.40 Sat 14th Nov Chesterfield 1 - 2 Burton 5 +£40.00 +£84.40 Sat 14th Nov Torquay 1 - 1 Barnet 6.08 -£10.00 +£74.40 Sat 14th Nov Kettering 2 - 2 Cambridge 3.1 -£10.00 +£64.40 Sat 20th Nov Man Utd 2 - 0 Wigan 16.4 -£10.00 +£54.40 Sat 20th Nov Cardiff 0 - 2 Nottm Forest 4.5 +£35.00 +£89.40 Sat 20th Nov Charlton 3 - 2 Yeovil 6.5 -£10.00 +£79.40 Sat 20th Nov Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Southend 4.33 -£10.00 +£69.40 Sat 20th Nov Ein Frankfurt 0 - 4 Hoffenheim 3.23 +£22.30 +£91.70 Sat 20th Nov Inverness CT 4 - 2 Hibernian 3.36 -£10.00 +£81.70 Tue 23rd Nov Bournemouth 2 - 0 Yeovil 5 -£10.00 +£71.70 Tue 23rd Nov Chesterfield 1 - 2 Oxford 5 +£40.00 +£111.70 Sat 27th Nov Barnsley 0 - 0 Watford 3.25 -£10.00 +£101.70 Sat 27th Nov Valenciennes 3 - 0 Arles 8 -£10.00 +£91.70 Sat 27th Nov Seville 1 - 3 Getafe 5.5 +£45.00 +£136.70 Sun 28th Nov Auxerre 1 - 2 Toulouse 4.1 +£31.00 +£167.70 Tues 30th Nov Kidderminster 0 - 0 York 3.1 -£10.00 +£157.70
LOGISTIC RATINGS.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Corection....the Detech does include predictions for English divisions. Below I have reproduced match odds and CS predictions for Frankfurt V B. Leverkusen with percentages calculated into fair odds. Ein Frankfurt VsLeverkusen
Home 3.25 ~ away 2.39 ~ draw 3.66 ~ current BF odds below ~
3.75 2.18 3.6 ~ value only on home win.