betrader
-
Posts
43 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by betrader
-
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Golden rules in trading is to study the game thoroughly, decide on the strat compared to market odds. If your work in studying does go tits up (after all it is a funny old game), accept the red after assessing each game, before it grows into deep claret. Above all, don't be greedy, look to turn £100.00 into 5% rather than £5.00 into £100.00. I tend to scalp down to 2%, then 3~4~5% and pull out even if I think there is more to be made. Protect the percentage of bank at all times then build up out of profits. If I can at least get this message across to any noobs here then at least I have satisfaction of helping people to enjoy trading and the games they become involved in. I shall probably conclude this thread shortly as it does take up valuable time. There are trades on in later matches but shall not be posting, just happy to know I am trading out of profits.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. In @ 1.75 unders ~ out in decnding scalps to 1.5 in 18 mins for 5.47% profit before commision.......good day so far even though starting late.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Pulled out of italian game half time ~ small red -1.4% ~ so concentrate on french match......ready to get out early as more staked on it.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Ratings indicate scalps of 2-1 in Bologna V Palermo on @ 11.5 and unders in Marseille V St Etienne ~ will just play profits made in week.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. 64th minute 0-1 ~ pity it was Exeter but showing green immediately as late in so no need to employ metaltone ~ 1.47% profit!
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Missed early kick offs so will have an interest in Charlton V Exeter 0-0 H/T ~ just 2 draws in last 10 both teams (1 each in 5), no 0-0 draws so LTD @ 2.5 is value.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Jeeze my broadband is barely crawling tonight....don't know if it was the net or the market ~ too many laying the draw ~ took ages for price to come in on Leicester game so I decided to lay off @ 4.5 at 16 mins for a small profit. Maybe traders intuition as home side scored in 21'. Also backed 2-0 scoreline in Nurnburg game @ 10.5 ~ no goals but price had dropped to 10.00 so got out of that too for another small take. Not out tonight so may as well close up the toy and research games for Sturday games. :wall
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. This copy paste from my spreadsheet has not recorded exactly but if you place a decimal point behind the 1st number in each home/away/draw percentage to odds conversion you will find that according to current prices the home/away's are skinny but the draw ia excellent value. Although Leicester are in current good form and expected to win on bare form facts, their last five V bottom reads 2 wins - 2 draws & 1 loss. Bristol City V top half have hekd out for three 0-0 draws at half time. The only negative is Leicester have a fairly high percentage of early goals for and against in all matches. However in balancing, one must consider long term value and the fact that Bristol managed draws against QPR & Forrest. I snapped up a back @ 4.8 the draw earlier today, intending to lay off below the value price of 4.2. If there is an early goal I shall tale long term view!
-
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Just greened up 10 mins, could let it go further but protecting stakes. In £100 @ 2.02 ~ out @ 1.8 ~ 5% profit. Nice to be back trading again instead of gambling with no way of getting out although this game indicates low scoring, it's safety first.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Sampdoria V Genoa 17.30. Significant half time stats. Unders 100% current odds ~ 1.33. 0-0 draws 60% current odds ~ 2.0. Back draw in half time market @ 2.02 fair price ~ green around 10 - 12 mins.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Sat on the fence yesterday as waiting for mobile broadand to be activated, now on full unlimited albeit slower than landline but able to move now. Noticed today around the blogs, traders complaining of doing their nuts in on the spate of dour 0-0 matches lately, I sympathise having two positives destroyed by two 0-0 jobs at Fulham and Beira-Mar. Makes one wonder if results do revolve in cycles ~ 3 weeks ago it was a spate of score draws, then we had the highest scores ever in the premier league. Last week it returned to mixed results, now it's churning out low scoring games. Incidentally, just scanning through previous results on last 16 - 1st leg of champions league since 2003, interesting to note that 35% of 1st leg ended in draws, with higher percentages on spanish, italian and non big 4 countries. There has already been two draws and spurs scored a late winner last night to seal away win but by then most traders expecting goals would have pulled out on red. Anyway now back online properly so will research logic stats for today.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Time online is restricted tonight so placing 3 straight punts on over 1.5 as follows ~
14/02/2011 20:45:00, Emmen v Cambuur, odds for Over 2.5: 1.64, matched on O/U 1.5 £534 14/02/2011 21:00:00, Fulham v Chelsea, odds for Over 1.5: 1.36, matched £14321 14/02/2011 20:00:00, Dordrecht v Volendam, odds for Over 2.5: 1.78, matched on O/U 1.5 £618/
Short odds for profit compared to liability but any losses will carry through to next set of three and split in conservative progression.
One match for scalping 2-1 with preset trigger on BF for lay @ 1 point lower. 14/02/2011 21:15:00, Beira-Mar v Setubal, home: 1.96, 2-1: 10.5, matched: £10710. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. H/T Juve V Inter & my spider indicates BTTS according to pre match markets but I decided earlier not to check logic stats as the Spanish match would be my last trade with overall green on the day. The sneaky market spider has actually indicated 4 games BTTS but I haven't bothered to cheack any so haven't traded ~ Roda - Degrafschap - Malaga or Juve ~ had enough on my plate today and on dongle pay as you go, so have to watch credit until I sign contract. On Chris's suggestion earlier, I was considering the creation of such a method quite a while back but scuppered on access to prematch odds data. That was before I learned of football data site so I formulated the method I use now using specialist software. (please don't ask). However if someone here would go to the trouble of collating all the prematch odds data I am willing to share my complete sources and by cross checking both sets of data it could be a formidable formation. must close now ~ credit up ~ back tomorow.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Real down to 10 men 3rd minute ~ market undecided, I stuck to guns having backed @ 9.6. Real just scored ~ market stuttered so pulled out 7.8 for just over 20% profit ~ could hang on but best protect stakes, not being greedy.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Deportivo just scored ~ in @ 2.2 LTD out @ 3.75 # profit made.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Deportivo V
Valencia
Espanyol V RealMadrid -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. BTW.....I did post about the Panathanaikos game earlier but as I am changing over from landline broadband to mobile "dongle" today so it has not been sent here. Panathanaikos just scored again so have greened up on all scores ~ made something on the day after all.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Hi Chris
Good concept you have put forward, however the software I use does not record odds results nor any stats sites except football-data.co.uk or footballdata.com. I’m sure other members can put you wise on that one ~ it could be an excellent method based on market opinion.
Incidentally Panathanaikos have just scored and I just layed off the same amount, leaving profit at 9.00 with no loss on other scores ~ will lay some more if another goal. Would have come down a lot shorter if scored earlier.
My stats indicatedRennes -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Will answer queries momentarily. Initial indications for today as follows. Serie A ~ Cagliari V Chievo. As Muppet rightly suggests I shall not confuse members by posting full factors, just what the main indicators are. On Betfair I have laid Cagliari -0&-0.5 @ 1.9 and backed Chievo +0&-0.5 @ 2.12 using inverse calculations. If anyone is not familiar with inverse staking I will explain in another post. This match may be viewed on www.firstrow.net Nothing conclusive on sky matches as yet.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Aha Muppet it’s good to be sceptical, is why I have posted here. The more questions, the more we can iron out any faults in ratings and of course no method on earth can prove to be 100% infallible.
Maybe my presentation of the findings need to be polished ~ the findings for theAtlanta In this case
Atlanta Atlanta
My apologies for not breaking the sentence, if you have misunderstood then others may have done so too. The indicators are to scalp the unders early in the first half. I hope this clears up the matter.Break up the factors and you see the ratings agree with the market on favouritism ~ 70% unders is not a conclusive trade in MO ~ What is more conclusive is that Atlanta should win but with half time scores as follows ~ home 2-0 1-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 ~ away 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 0-0. The unders are 100%.
-
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Saturday ~ logic rating indicators & personal trades.
Frankfurt ( mid 3rd) V B.Leverkusen (top 6). Trade ~ not conclusive ~ pass.
WBA V W.HAM. Trade ~ +0.5 West Ham ~ WON.
Portosummaga VLivorno . ~ serie B. Trade ~Livorno win MO ~ LOST. ACMILAN VPARMA
ROMA VNAPOLI Trade = scalp draw 1st half ~ WON. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. ROMA V
NAPOLI
Stats indicate 90% draw H/T ~ scalp draw. -
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. AC
MILAN VPARMA
The most conclusive stats in this match are goals scored and conceded by both teams.Milan Parma
LOGISTIC RATINGS.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. As I wind down this thread I would like to put forward some more trading advice to newbies and affirm the actions of experienced traders. Important rule is to always trade one goal ahead or should I say whenever one can. Another important rule is to have faith in your statistical research whilst being wary of the previous rule in case the game does go against calculations.
I traded a Dutch game earlier today ~ stats as follows ~
The most prominent stat in this game though was the overs trend being almost 100% for both teams and reflected in the market @ around 1.7. After kick off I placed an order to back 2-1 @ 9.6 (fair value) and matched up within 5 mins. I decided to allow ther match to run before placing the overs trade.
24 minutes in and a few traders were getting fidgety as the price on overs drifted, I placed a back and matched up @ 2.66 (massive value), whilst my back on 2-1 was slowly showing red. 30 minutes ~ bang ~ suspended, obvious goal but it was Feyenoord who got it! On one side the overs tumbled alarmingly as the market now expects the home side to equalise and go on to win with definite overs, I cashed out immediately with 54% profit.
On the 2-1 scalping side I had to make a quick decision which was dominated by the rule of always protecting the bank percentage. Taking the contrarian view I realised the danger of Feyenoord scoring again which would wipe out the back stake and rather than hope for the home side to score to steam the odds, I placed the same amount of backing stake onto the lay side @ 2 ticks lower for a possible free bet and no loss on any other score.
Subsequently Feyenoord scored again and as I write the game is still 0-2 and could end up being an unders game. Profits were made even though this game went totally against the stats. The contrarian view on any match that indicates goals to be scored either way is that just because there is no goal in the first quarter does not mean the whole match will be goaless.