Machine
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Posts posted by Machine
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I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a plasterer who's doing some subby work for me. He says he does an each way Lucky 15 everyday with the 4 lowest priced Favs in 8 or more runner races in his daily newspaper. He reckoned he gets 8-10% profit on turnover per year. At first I thought yeah right another one talking through his backside. But on reflection I thought.... most of the races will be in non-handicap A probable high win sr If not winning a high place sr So virtually every day some sort of return and now its the jumps season you wont be getting that many realy low odds on shots. So Im going to give it a go with £150 enough for 10 attempts. :hope (using BOG bookies) I wont be using the 4 lowest odds favs for the day, I will be using the 4 favs with the largest difference from the second fav in the racing post. I will monitor the lowest priced fav's as well to see if it makes a great difference. Mine for today
Lowest priced favs are...
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Re: Standard deviation of returns
Correct any prediction of the future is very unlikely to be the same as the previous year as you can only make an estimation,as it is impossible to exactly replicate 1 bet let alone 200. On only 200 bets you would expect a MoE (Margin of Error) of around 7%. worse case scenario given 7% MoE would be approx..... Total bets 200*1.07 = 214 Adjusted SR% = 38/214 = 18% Adjusted ROI = (50-(214-200))/214 = 17% Expected LLR = 29 Expected LWR = 3 It would still be possible to lose every bet (highly unlikely but still possible).Yes thanks' date=' I got that. It's not that I don't believe it and not being ungrateful. Just curious if there's another way to view it as [b']you seemed to indicate that the outcomes would be very unlikely as the average odds was unlikely to be the same in any following year. -
Re: Standard deviation of returns
I just want to understand what percentage chance I've got of getting certain returns so maybe the title is wrong. I'm not that good at maths. The sample is from class 1 and 2 races but only a few bets (200) and a small strike rate (19%) so I'm expecting that in any one year the variation of returns could be significant. I'm trying to understand how significant. Something along the lines of.... I've got a 50% likelihood of landing between +30 and +100 in any one year' date=' etc[/quote'] post 3 tells you that -
Re: Standard deviation of returns I think its Binomial distribution which answers your question with the variables given. Bets = 200 SR = 19% ROI = 25% (assuming actual ROI not yield) Therefore profit @ 1pt stakes = bets *ROI = 200*0.25 = 50pts Therefore average winning odds = bets + profit /total winning bets(200*0.19%) = 250/38 = 6.58 ave odds If you were to bet in exactly the same way/circumstances as the previous season (very unlikely but you did asked) with similar results you would have a range between.......... Expected negative return chance of 0.01% or return of 125 = loss of 75pts Expected Positive return chance of 0.01% or return of 388 = profit of 188pts All being the similar to the previous year you would have a 12%-88% split negative to positive eg 12% chance of losing or 88% chance of profiting
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
Would those bets have been from your 'Value' football bets thread,that seemed to be going well, then the inevitable happened. Hope you got out before too much damage was done.As for getting matched i'll tell you a story. This was back in 2004-2005 something like that. I made 30000 euro profit that season betting on football teams to win their match. I was using stakes at first of 2500 euro and by the end up to 5000 euro. There was no signficant pronblem getting matched at the prices i wanted. ( read prices needed ) Most of the time Betfair was enough, and yeah sometimes i needed to wait a while to get matched, or drop one or 2 ticks but that was not significant overall. Sometimes i'd find a better price at a bookmaker. And yeah, not all bookmakers accept those stakes but plenty do, And yeah, you need to look around to find the best price. And yeah, sometimes you need to make the effort of calling them on the phone as you exceed the limits available on the website. So what, you need to make an effort, nothing new there. So one time i wanted to bet on Anderlecht in the Belgium premier league, i found the top price to be 1.26 at betCRIS, at the time a leading bookmaker for the US market, Website would only allow me 1000 euro so i gave them a call on the phone. Me: i'd like Anderlecht to win 5000 euro to win 1300 ( the operators are all american so it's easier to say it like that rather than 5000 @ 1.26 ) Them: Ok, i need to check that with one of our supervisors as it's more than the website limit, please hold on. Them: We're happy to take that bet, anything else ? Me: Nope, that's it. Guy does the readback, i confirm, et voila bet placed. The reason i remember this so accurately is this, after i put the phone down i refreshed the screen and found they had moved the odds from 1.26 to 1.20 ( remember they had accepted my bet at 1.26) So that was one, actually the only one i actually know for sure, where i made the line move. Yep, moi, just me, all on my own, made the line move. Nice if you're able to say that :lol -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Better than Cannon and Ball you 2. (kolo & Sands)
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football All depends on the risk v reward (as data rightly said) Chances of going broke drawdown Fluidity of market You cannot just stick up numbers and say ...Oh 100k should give you a POT of (approx) 6% it a ludicrous assumption
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
So am I now :eyes (but I wouldnt consider them friends as such ) Kolo You say your new to gambling, why not ask these 6 figure betting buddie's of yours for advice, Im sure theyd be only too keen to help I know mine would ;)I am friends with people who bet 6 figures on some games and post on internet forums -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I understand betting markets a lot better than you think mate! So stop trying to make out your some superstar and were all idiots. All you do is talk in riddles add no valid points. Its all if 60k this if 70k that IMO all bullsh*t If you did (which again is doubtfull) deal with that sort of money why in gods name would you be hanging about a message board. Your betting more than JP and hes never been inclined to pop in here and educate the masses. Give us a break and get back to the real world your getting tiresome.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
So its all hypothetical then, bit of a waste of time then. Its a bit like saying if I could fly I could wear a stupid blue jumper with a big red 's' on itAnd the point isn't that I can't get 70k bets on. It's that if I do, I have to accept a very low margin.
If you did (which I very much doubt ) have 60k to put on a (say) football match you would take what you could on the market with your edge then lay off the rest on the other 2 markets because they have no edge so you would be getting your 'value' that way.Or do you bet on an exchange where there is no competition and an endless stream of very wealthy mugs prepared to accept shockingly poor value bets for huge sums? -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
Well its not everyday someone comes here saying he cant get 60-70k bets on is it. :eek Cant wait for the inevitable sales pitch...... or am I being a wee bit cynicle ;)Just think it's got a touch advanced a bit quick! No worries -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Well here's me expecting some mathematical revelation that would even make Steven Hawking blow a fuse and thats the best you can come up with SIGH! :sad Dear oh dear oh dear. Cant get 60k bets here... Cant get 70k bets on there.:( Cant get 2k on @ 2.18 on a even money shot.:( Whats the world coming too, its a travesty. I'd blame the Torys if I were you, thats what most people do when things dont go to plan. I bet the even money that you want about Frankel has gone as well :loon
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Why dont you give an example in plain english instead of waffling on. Oh and you still havent given me a proper answer on how it affects my margin.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football So you bet in £60,000 punts then? Give us a clue are you JP Macmanus :loon
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
How does the more I get matched lessen my margin eg 100 on 2.00 returns 200 100% profit 200 on 2.00 returns 400 100% profit How has my 'margin' been lessened by being matched for more money? Give a mathematical example. To say I am intrigued is an understatement, a wondrous new episode in the mathematics of gambling awaits.:okOh dear, pedantics again. Ok - the more volume you get matched... Better? -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
Please enlighten us how that works then. Please keep it simple for us mere mortals :eyesI'll say again that the more volume you put into one market the less your margin. You cannot argue with this, it is a fact. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Kolo ROI is profit.... (return on Investment) :eyes Yield is the amount of times your initial investment is turned over to produce that profit.
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Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair
Isn't it all about the punter having the ability to predict the winning horse/game better than the odds at which he/she are prepared to bet at. Or am I missing something. You have a choice to bet or not ,the bookie doesn't, he has to price up a race/game to stay in business and compete with other books, It matters not if the market is efficient as you should only be concentrating on the part of the market you think you can beat. Therefore you cannot blame the market for your inability to beat it, whether it is efficient or not.That the number you bet at vs the no vig closing line is much more efficient for predicting future success than win/loss record is -
Re: Introduction and my code based odds predictor Hi Monte Its not my place to tell you how to bake your own cake so to speak,but a little outside input can sometimes save hours of trials.;) The obsession people have with trying to create 'true odds' astounds me when everything you need is there for you. You can not create 'true odds' which are comparable to the bookmakers odds as you do not use the same variables as they do,hence you end up with correlated data (good for politicians to make thing look rosey..bad in betting terms). Basically its like trying to compare an apple to an orange. :unsure What is the first thing taught in data analysis...Crap in > Crap out (my version) to quote Sun Tzu:- "the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." The bookmakers weak point is they have to show their hand first by pricing up the games. By analysing their past odds you are in effect using their own exact methods of pricing up a game to use against them. A little reading on Quarbs may not go amiss ( Efficiency in spread betting,but can be mutated to 1x2 betting). :ok
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Re: Introduction and my code based odds predictor
Theres no difference whatsoever NN was using GA's in the early nineties (old school), virtually same as the new named ACO or swarm (same coat ,different colour) I dont think youll get to much input from members on here but good luck with your 'true odds calculator' Im away to see what 'hunches' my NN has thrown up ;) :okThanks for the notes, Froment :) I've been and had a look as those other threads, but as the poster is using Neural Networks, I can't see a great deal of crossover. I might add a NN later as a 'gap-plugger' - my gut feeling is that a NN is better at simulating 'hunches' than calculating odds, and I'm more interested in creating a system that estimates 'true odds'. I've modified my genetic algorithm so that it is a.) 4x as fast as it was, and b.) now has additional selection criteria, specificaly, that it selects in favour of solutions where buckets of games where I pick the same odds have the right preportion of outcomes. I'll leave it in machine-learning mode overnight and see if I can make some picks on the Bundisleague tomorrow :) -
Re: A.I.D.E.'s Back 4 draws for a return of 140.10 points 30.10pts profit tick tick tick things dont change I dont want to post selections every week so will leave it to the experts ;) goood luck :ok ** The above doesn't sound right. What I meant was I cant guarantee posting every week so its pointless running the thread. So I'll leave the postings to the ones that can ;)
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Due to requests of near biblical proportion and public pressure Ive decided to give it another go this season :eyes A.I.D.E (Artificial Intelligence Draw Estimator) has been brought back out of semi retirement. Last seasons bets can be found HERE 1 game for tonight and 10 for the weekend all draws @ 10 pt stakes Brighton v Sheff Wed 3.54 pin Fulham v WBA 3.5 skybet 'Boro v Ipswich 3.54 pin Forest v Birmingham 3.5 pin Portsmouth v Walsall 3.46 pin Preston v Crawley 3.4 B365 Aldershot v Morcambe 3.35 pin Cheltenham v Southend 3.53 pin Exeter v York 3.55 pin Lincoln v Hyde 3.57 pin Luton v Wrexham 3.61 pin 110 staked 4 needed for profit ;) Disclaimer All these selections are completely made by A.I.D.E. No imput is made at all by myself so I accept no responsability whatsoever for anyone re-morgaging their home,selling their kids or pawning the family silver to back these or any other A.I.D.E selections. :ok PS sorry about the late posting for tonights game,had a few :beer @ teatime and fell asleep :lol
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Re: A.I. Racerater Tell you the truth Bray, When I got back off my hols I just couldn't be bothered :$ I dont even use the ratings prog anymore. Ive also had a few e-mails asking am I starting up my A.I Football (draw system) again this season,No because Its old hat now.. been there done it blah blah blah so time for something new, saying that my lad still uses the prog on his laptop and says its doing quite well.(which doesn't surprise me as its simplicity itself and was profitable every season over the 10yrs it was back-tested so why should it cease to be now). Anyway Ive started a new project now :eyes which is keeping me occupied for the time being,whether it gets finished or not is a different story :lol
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Re: excel help using shin FLB I got the answer wrong tho. I got 4.5% somehow dont know where that came from :unsure
Favorites Lucky 15
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Favorites Lucky 15 Well the lowest priced RP favs return a profit :loon [TABLE=width: 449]