sonofwat
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Posts posted by sonofwat
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Re: U21 European Championship 2011
:nana Could not have gone any better for me. Lovin this tournament so far...apart from Denmark not getting through. Spain pretty much certainties for the Final and I think will meet Switzerland.Would say it would be for Rodwell. Replaced him in the last game with the Ukraine and Pearce mentioned in an interview that he offers something different to Rodwell in that he can play between the forwards and midfield. Don't see him dropping Henderson - generally plays wider right then the likes of Rodwell and Lansbury. Personally don't think it really matters who Pearce selects. The players he has at his disposal just don't make the system he's trying to play work. The only part of their team that looks good is the defensive pairing of Jones and Smalling. All the rest so workmanlike - but no surprise from an English national team. I'm expecting the Czech's to get something from this game. Think they have far more threat in the final third then England and play much better football. The other game I think Spain will win comfortably 2-0,3-0,3-1. -
Re: U21 European Championship 2011
Would say it would be for Rodwell. Replaced him in the last game with the Ukraine and Pearce mentioned in an interview that he offers something different to Rodwell in that he can play between the forwards and midfield. Don't see him dropping Henderson - generally plays wider right then the likes of Rodwell and Lansbury. Personally don't think it really matters who Pearce selects. The players he has at his disposal just don't make the system he's trying to play work. The only part of their team that looks good is the defensive pairing of Jones and Smalling. All the rest so workmanlike - but no surprise from an English national team. I'm expecting the Czech's to get something from this game. Think they have far more threat in the final third then England and play much better football. The other game I think Spain will win comfortably 2-0,3-0,3-1.I am thinking to oppose England today. Ideally I'd love to be able to catch the +0.5 line on the Czech's at a decent price, but the price on England is holding thus far. I am not sure how the Czech's will approach this match but I think they are a good match for England so would be surprised if they just tried to defend for 90 minutes. I am going to watch and then try to get Czech on a decent in-play handicap. I do also quite like the look of unders. England look pretty good at the back and though I don't expect a full on D show from Czech's they may well be slightly more inclined that way. EDIT - It is reported that England may make a couple of changes for today's match. Some news has been conflicting though. I have read that Lansbury will come in but not sure whether it will be for Rodwell or Henderson. I am not overly familiar with any of these players other than their rough overall player type. -
Re: U21 Championship 2011 IMO Denmark a must play in the outright markets at odds around 8/1. Fourth favourite with the bookies, but with the 3 favoured teams (Spain, England & Czech Republic) in the other group should be able to progress to the final stages. Traditionally in this competition the host team reach the final stages and although not overwhelmingly convincing, 2/3 of the last 3 tournaments have seen the host reach the final stages - 09' Sweden SF (went out on penalties), 07' Netherlands champions. I'm not basing this bet on the above alone, as I agree with the above poster that Denmark have picked a good side, even if they will rely alot on the individual talent of Eriksen. The downside to this bet is that if Denmark do get to the semi final and face either Spain or England, their record in recent matches against both sides is not the best. Feb 8th 2011 - Friendly - Spain v Denmark - 2 - 1 Mar 24th 2011 - Friendly - Denmark v England - 0 - 4 Still think it is worth a bet with an idea to hedge/trade as the tournament progresses - hopefully along with Denmark.:hope
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Re: U21 Championship 2011 Muniain really unlucky not to get a mention there. IMO will go on to be the best player of this U21 Spanish side. At only 18 yrs of age he's forced his way into the Bilbao side, starting almost every game in the season and becoming one of their most relied upon creative threats. Some of his skill and runs with the ball at times remind me of Messi. Not sure we will see the best of him in this tournament as he will be tired from a long season. Bit surprised that Bartra from Barca doesn't get called up here. Been a excellent performer in the Barca II team that finished third in Segunda, and a number of occasions due to rotation or injury has been called up to the senior Barca side and really impressed.
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Re: Spain - La Liga - 21 May
Yeah did practically the exact same thing as you. Got excited about taking Malaga then realised that they were missing their key attacking players - Baptista and Rondon. My advice on the goal scoring markets is maybe to consider either last weeks scorer Recio or my personal favourite Duda. Well overdue a goal, dangerous from free kicks and my favourite stat of all, he scored in last years final game of the season, which was at home to Real Madrid 1-1. So maybe even worth a punt on correct score 1-1, FGS Duda. ;)Actually scrap all of this!! Just checked team news (before placing bets thankfully) and Baptista is injured!! Malaga also have some other important absentees - Rondon (attacker 30app/14gl) Demechelis (def 18app/1gl) Malgueno (def 11app/0gl) and a serious doubt on Mtiliga (def 19app/0gl) I am sure that with all the attacking talent that will be missing, there has to be some value somewhere in the goalscorer markets. I just can't see it at the moment :\ -
Re: ARGENTINA Primera Division 2011 Thread 2:0 FT Certainly enough chances for the game to go over, but as is a characteristic in Argentine football an early goal or even two goals in the first half doesn't lead to an over.
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Re: ARGENTINA Primera Division 2011 Thread Both sides seem to be missing key players, particularly up front. Overs could be risky here despite the history and form of both teams. Both coaches lineup with far less adventurous teams as a result of the missing players going 4-5-1.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 7-9 May ultravires, What do you think about the Juve v Chievo match? Odds would suggest an easy win for Juve here, but Chievo IMO are no pushovers and will make it hard for Juve. Have travelled recently to places like San Siro and Rome and been quite competitive...although losing both matches. Traditionally Chievo appear to play quite well against Juve, rarely seem to get beat up and often game ends with Juve 1-0 win. Maybe some value in that?
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Re: Spain - La Liga - 7-8 May
Always felt that the above sought of scheduling was what distinguished the EPL from La Liga in terms of effective marketing. This is definitely a good move and one that will test the dominance of the EPL. Only real problem is that often with games that start that early we see teams sleep walk for the first 45mins, as they are not use to playing so early. Seems to happen a lot in the Segunda game, where without looking at stats, I'm certain the majority of the early kick-offs are low scoring. Back to the actual game, it will be interesting to see how Mallorca and Villarreal take to this early kick-off time. For certain Villarreal players would like to sleep in for the next few months let alone for this early kick-off. They must be absolutely exhausted, and I see this game doing them no favours whatsoever. They will still be missing key defenders in Gonzalo and Capedevilla, so I would expect to see Mallorca able to break through a meek Villarreal defense like so many teams have over the last month or so. Mallorca Asian Handicap -1/4 @ 2.07 (Betfair)Real Mallorca v Villarreal (11:00 BSTthe first time in the history of La Liga) The idea of the League is that this time, already been used in the second division for some time, becomes fixed after the next season for one game each day Trial. Thus, it seeks to encourage the followers of Asian countries, which would be more comfortable to watch the games with this schedule. In addition, the LFP also intends to ten matches each day do not overlap . Thus, it is speculated that there will be football on Saturdays at 16:00, 18:00, 20:00 and 22:00 hours , the Sunday at 1 2:00, 15:00, 17:00, 19:00 and 21:00 pm , to close the day the Monday at 21:00 hours ... -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Manchester Utd v Schalke > Weds 4 May Schalke's defense should be stronger in the middle with the inclusion of Howedes, however for me they are weaker on the left side with Escudero up against Valencia. Uchida will also have a tougher time then in the first leg up against Nani.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Schalke v Manchester United > Tuesday 26 April You can also add the Liverpool team of 2005. Were ordinary in the League but managed to win the whole thing getting past much more fancied opposition. To write off Schalke here, especially at home is IMO pure folly. Sure Utd are a very good side, but they have shown many weaknesses in the league away from home when teams have put them under pressure. For me they have been lucky so far in that neither Marseille nor Chelsea really did this. Marseille just not equipped nor had the belief, while Chelsea were in bad form.
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Re: AFC Champions League 2011 Agree dajkula...although not sure what this 'butter' is that the Japanese have prepared for Sydney. :lol ;) Jokes aside, Kashima are definitely the better side here. Not so sure how Sydney's coach Lavicka will approach the game. He can be very tactical and defensive so I expect he will play 1 up front and 5 in the midfield to try and cut down the danger of the nippy and quick passing Japanese. This has been the approach from him so far in their first 2 games. What is a big blow for Sydney is the loss of their marquee player in Nicki Carle. He was really beginning to show some nice touches in midfield and will be a big blow to Sydney's chances of scoring. There are also other small injuries that Lavicka mentioned, but would not name the players, so could be a few younger and less experienced players in the lineup. Overall a definite advantage to Kashima here, but that is reflected in the odds so not sure there is a lot of value to be had. Could also be a low scoring game as well, but again unders is very low so not worth risking. Maybe try small stakes on Kashima 1-0,2-0.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 13 April A lot of posts have mentioned that Mourinho may start with his reserves. I'm confident in saying that that won't be the case. Mou has said in his press conference that he will start with his best team, and this is exactly why he rested so many of his best players against Bilbao - Alonso, Marcelo, Carvalho, Ozil, Ronaldo & Adebayor. Also Khedira who wasn't able to make Bilbao due to injury will also return. Goals seems to be the preferred bet for this game, but along with a couple of other posters above, I'm not so sure we will see many goals. No doubt in my mind Real will sit back and defend, the same as they approach all their away games. If Real get the first goal what will Tottenham's reaction be? I'm not so sure it will be to continue to push forward and potentially concede more goals to Real in front of their fans. I think the tie may be dead at that point with the miracle comeback all but truly gone. Sure Spurs won't just stop playing but it won't be with the same reckless abandonment. Just look at the Shakhtar v Barca game. Similar situation but only 1 goal when people were calling for a shed load. Secondly, and this point was mentioned above by the posters with good knowledge of Spurs, their goal scoring form of late has been bad. Yes they scored 3 against Stoke, but 2 were by Crouch and he's out. He could have caused this Real team problems with his height, but I don't see much threat from Defoe or Pav. Both have been quite poor this season. VDV also is a shadow of his early self. At times he seems lost and frustrated with his form. Plenty of value in my eyes on the under 2.5 @ 2.26 (Betfair) Small plays on 0-0 CS @ 17.00 & 1-1 CS @ 8.00 (Betfair)
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Re: NRL Round 1 Under dropping on the tab for the Raiders v Cronulla game. Same happened yesterday with the Warriors v Eels game and it hit.
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Re: NRL Round 1 Is there something wrong with the following. I thought so, but maybe I'm missing something? - Penrith team total over 20.5 pts @ 2.7 - Newcastle team total over 18.5 pts @ 2.7 Surely someone has miscalculated on that?
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Re: NRL Round 1 Blackcrow, Dugan is out for the Raiders, along with Orford. ;)
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Re: NRL Round 1 Parra +7.5pts and under 42.5 hit...just! Parra looked quite good, although were gifted alot of points on the back of poor mistakes by the Warriors - Vatuvei and the dropsies mk II. Warriors way off being potential contenders for the league this year.
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Re: NRL Round 1 I don't think we'll see the sought of 'throw the ball around' style the eels have been known for over the last couple of years. Kearney gained his coaching badges under the likes of Bellamy and Bennett and judging from the eels trial games, has instilled a similar philosophy to these coaches in his team. Taking out the first trial game loss to the Warriors 24-4, which was largely a makeshift side, the eels went on to record impressive trial wins 30-10 against the Tigers and 30-0 at CUA stadium against the Panthers. Accepted they are only trial wins, but needless to say wins against highly talented teams while restricting scoring at the same time. A lot of the eels players have been saying that they've hated preseason because they've been worked so hard by Kearney. This to me is an integral part of what makes teams coached by Bellamy and Bennett such a success - always extremely fit and organized - and clearly Kearney has done the same. With the weather in Auckland being hot and humid, I'm expecting a low scoring tight encounter, with possibly a slight advantage to the eels here as I feel like they may be the fitter side. Eels + 7.5 pts looks a really good play to me and am considering maybe playing the under 42.5 pts as well. Noticed on the tab website that it has already been hit pretty hard. Good luck everyone on the game.
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Re: Asian Cup
Well' date=' this is what a betting forum is about, isn't it - if you back your tip with a solid reasoning, someone might follow you, but it's still his/her decision and money. Don't be afraid - you could see I also made some mistakes above and got ripped to pieces, but I just stand corrected;)[/quote'] Well said Tulenos...it's like brainstorming, the more ideas the better. There will be good and bad ideas but that doesn't matter, it is what comes out of those ideas. Apologies Tulenos if you felt I ripped you, did not mean to come across that way. -
Re: Asian Cup
Correction, Iraq are the holders of the Asian cup not Japan. As already described in an above post, the 3rd place playoff has some significance for the next Asian Cup in terms of automatic qualification going to the winner. This aside I still think both teams will be determined to win the game, but for me the best bet is on goals. If Uzbekis play like they did against Australia then S.Korea's pace on the counter will rack up twice as many goals as slow Australia. I don't expect this to happen as Uzbekis will make changes, but I expect S.Korea to win scoring and also conceding. The final for me will be a tight affair as the odds suggest. Kagawa is a huge loss. Was in excellent form for Dortmund and carried that form into this tournament. The last 2 times Australia played Japan was in WC qualifying games. With better CB's then current they struggled to defend Australia on set pieces. In the away leg in Australia they lead 1-0 at HT only to concede 2 goals from set pieces to Cahill headers. Incidentally, Cahill loves scoring against Japan - like he does against Liverpool - did it twice at the '06 WC. Could be worth a bet on him to score or FGS. Australia for me have shown the sought of form of a Champion team. Have progressively improved throughout the tournament, and have shown a certain desire to prove themselves after what can be considered a rather poor performance in their first Asian Cup tournament. Osieck seems to have instilled a good sense of unity and team work, and defensively they have looked the most sound of any team, especially with their impressive goalkeeper Schwarzer. I don't think you can say the same of Japan, which is surprising under the stewardship of Zacheroni. Japan have looked vulnerable throughout on defense and if Qatar or S.Korea knew how to defend and play better tactics I believe Japan would not be here. I give a slight edge to Australia, based on their better defense & GK and a clear advantage on set pieces. Plus they haven't lost to Japan in their last 4 games in 90' mins. Other parts of the field I believe are relatively even. Therefore Australia Asian Handicap 0 & Tim Cahill to score/FGS look good bets. Finally, Tulenos I see no way that Australia could be complacent. Maybe they will lose but this is a huge moment for them as it will be their first opportunity ever to win a major football tournament. Japan have already won 3. Also Japan v Australia games have always been competitive affairs, they don't hate one another, but there is certainly a strong competitive edge to their games.That will be it, 3rd place decider on Friday, final on Saturday. Australia or Japan? Once again, early thoughts. Japan have not been exactly cruising, but they did the business, got to the final, and as the holders will definitely want to win it again. I'm slightly afraid that the Aussies may be complacent a bit once they managed to ship six past the Uzbeks in the SF, but they were not exactly convincing during the tourney, the only good win was against minnows from India (Japan's wins were mostly also very slim, though, but they definitely played sterner opposition - and were nearly knocked out by Quatar). -
Re: NFL Conference Championship Picks What about the under 43.5 in the Chicago v Green Bay game? Both games in the regular season went under this no. - Chicago winning 20-17 @ home and Green Bay winning their home game 10-3. Also 9 of the last 10 games between these 2 teams have gone under this no. Always fiercely contested games between the 2 division rivals, and obviously that will be at it's ultimate in such an important game. Wonder if this line may be skewed a little by last weeks performances, with both teams putting up big numbers. The week before Green Bay went under this no. against Philli. Also this will be played outside in what could be tough weather conditions - some forecasts predicting snow/rain showers - and I heard one of the Green Bay WR's calling Chicago's field the worst in the league. Think there is enough reason to play the under, but would appreciate everyone's thoughts before diving in.:dude
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Re: Asian Cup
Australia's last away game to Bahrain was a 1-0 victory, however it could have been a lot different. Bahrain were by far the better side, dominating play and having the best chances of the game, including hitting the woodwork. It was only a fortunate goal in the last minute of injury time that handed Australia the win. Australia also played a team that was IMO much better then the side that plays tonight. Of course Bahrain will not be playing in their home stadium, but they will definitely have majority of the support in the stadium. Good luck with your pick blackcrow. ;)Australia -1.5 @ 2.43 pinnacle Some concern for Australia here as they need at least a point to progress to the next round, as left back Carney, right back Wilshere and defensive midfielder Culina are all likely to out injured for this game. However they have enough good depth to cover these players, and not too worried about Bahrain doing enough to beat this reorganised defence, especially as they have probably the best goalkeeper (Schwartzer) in the competition. Up front, Cahill and Kewell will be looking to make much more of the chances, as they were both disappointed with themselves they did not better with the opportunities that were presented to them in the game against South Korea. While Bahrain are a decent side, they are not, talent wise, as good as the Australians, and this has been seen in their last 4 losses to them. Bahrain has scored just once against them n these 4 losses to Australian, and 3 of these games were by a two goal margin, as well as Australian tended to play with their domestic players, but in this game, they will have their best team, barring injuries, out there. Australia will be looking to score goals, as finishing top of their group will probably come down to goal difference, so they will be looking to win first, and then win comfortably. South Korea -4.5 @ 2.35 bet365 South Korea should have no problem beating India. The question is, by how much? They are 3 goals behind Australia, and seeing that Australia cruised to a 4-0 half time lead against India, and then relaxed in the second half, doubt that SK will do the same here and relax, as they will be looking to top this group, like them to score at least 5 here. Expect them to have too much for Indians, who have been gallant, but by playing an open and attack minded game, they are also making themselves vulnerable for the fast counter attacks, and the SK's have quite a few forwards who are pretty quick and can take advantage of this. -
Re: AFL Rd. 10. Did anyone expect Essendon to play that well? Wouldn' have thought so...although they have beaten some good top 8 sides this year in St Kilda and Carlton. Having watched the game, I thought the Dogs handling skills were poor. Always seemed to fumble the ball in the contest, dropped easy marks. Not sure if that is a training issue or it was just great Bomber pressure. Thoughts Taza? They looked equally poor with their skills at time against the Roos last week. Surely the Doggies of the last few seasons - where they ran the football more - would have easily accounted for the Bombers. Think the +50.5 pts to Melbourne is great value. Just checked the radar and theirs plenty of wet weather around Geelong this weekend. Expecting a wet and blustery day at Skilled, and based on Taza's stat of Melb not losing to Geelong by more then 46pts since '99 think it's s good'un.
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Re: AFL Rd. 9. Hey Taza...think the low total may be to do with the approaching front from the west. Should hit around game time or a little after. Looks pretty heavy on the radar. Considering how poorly Adelaide have scored this year and Brisbane not been at their best of late think a play on the under looks a good shout. Brown and Fevola both included in the final teams, but don't expect them at their best. And on a wet surface they may not go as hard as they would - although in saying that I'm not so sure you could say that of Brown. GL on the Crows all the same. Not sure who the rain really favours...maybe the Lions.
Copa America > Thursday 7th July
in Copa America 2024 Predictions
Posted
Re: Copa America > Thursday 7th July
I think we'll probably see a few changes by Batista here. Would expect to see Lavezzi dropped and Di Maria brought in. Maybe even Aguero to start in place of Tevez. If Argentina thought breaking down Bolivia was hard, wait till they face Colombia. I expect to see plenty of bad fouls and potential red cards in this game :@ . Probably a 1-0 to Argentina, with a Messi free kick to win it or something. Won't be pretty...but think Argentina may do just enough.