sonofwat
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Posts posted by sonofwat
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Re: Stoke City v Liverpool > Sunday January 12th Nice to see that the weather is playing right into Stokes hands here. Wet, windy and slippery, perfect for causing major confusion on set pieces.
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Re: Stoke City v Liverpool > Sunday January 12th I find it quite astounding that Liverpool are around 1.50 to win this game. Just crazy!!! For me this is the bet of the season and I know that sounds a little bit ridiculous but there are plenty of good reasons to take Liverpool on here. 1. Liverpool have never beaten Stoke at their home in the Premier League era 2. Stoke have a formidable home record this season even under the new stewardship of Mark Hughes - includes impressive wins against Chelsea and solid draws against Everton and Man City. 3. Liverpool's away record is quite frankly awful against some very average sides. Sure they played quite well away to City and Chelsea, but lost to Hull drew with an awful Swansea team and were unable to beat Newcastle down to 10 for about 60 mins. 4. Liverpool cannot defend set pieces and with a whole host of their staring defenders out are even more likely to struggle. Sure this isn't Stoke under Pulis but they have proven they are still dangerous - just see the Chelsea game for example. 5. I'm laying Liverpool, so a win or draw for Stoke is sufficient and given the results so far this round statistically an away win is unlikely with a draw or home win the most probable outcome. GL everyone as we all seem to be of the same opinion here.
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Re: NRL Round 11 Was on Gold Coast against West Tigers 2 weeks ago in an in-play bet and couldn't believe I lost based on the way both teams played. Tigers really looked an ordinary outfit in that game, and probably only won because of Titans inability to score a point in the second half. Their best performer that night by a long way was Robbie Farah, so his absence is huge here - gives them great leadership and direction on the field. Benji looked well low on form, while their forwards lacked good go forward. Warriors have really turned the corner here for me, putting in some really dominant performances on the back of their massive forward pack and plethora of creative outlets. Johnson has been hugely impressive in running the ball and his kicking game, supported by the steady performer in Maloney. Warriors to win this quite comfortably. Warriors to win @ 1.90 (Betfair)
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Re: Europa League Final 09/05 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao [in Bucharest, Romani
What your describing is each teams style of play. Atleti want to defend and play counter attacking football, while Bilbao want to possess the ball and utilise their creativity. It should not be surprising therefore that each teams assists come about in the way you describe. Of course by playing a certain way you make sacrifices to your defence or your attack, so neither style IMO is better then the other. Your also being a little bit unfair on Adrian who has played really well this season alongside Falcao, yes creating for Falcao but also creating his own chances as well. Should be a fascinating battle, but I personally like Atleti to take out the cup. After all don't they say defence wins you championships?We got two completely different teams here. Did anyone notice that no central player of Atletico Madrid has any assists? It's flank players only. They have a simple game plan, they play through the flanks and cross the ball to Falcao. Even the 2nd forward, Adrian, is looking to pass to Falcao. Since their standard right back is injured they're even crazy enough to put a winger, Juanfran, on right back. Everything is targeted towards making a cross for Falcao. It's the price they've paid when selling Kun Aguero, who is the kind of player who creates his own chances, and buying Falcao, who needs the team to work for him. So, gradually during the season, they went to extremes and now the entire team is working for him. Athletic Bilbao is more dangerous IMO. Or at least the danger is coming from more sides. Iker Muniain is an awesome player, Suaseta is great on the other wing, they all play offensively and are very creative. Llorente, unlike Falcao, does give assists. Muniain and Suaseta are therefore helping with the scoring. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, is a one-trick pony. -
Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > 8 May Agree with what's been posted above. Liverpool's home form has been nothing short of horrendous, and for a club of their size and spending one wonders how Dalglish and many of the current playing squad will keep their jobs once the owners review the season. The loss in the FA Cup will have really dragged the morale at Anfield to even lower depths and I can see a game with both sides going through the motions. Chelsea may well rest a few players, but as Roberto Di Matteo has proven, it doesn't seem to matter, they still play their tight effective defensive style which is hard to break down - see Arsenal away game. It's difficult to see how an attack that has struggled so much will be able to break down this Chelsea team, while Chelsea will be content with sitting back and trying to nick a goal on the break. H2H shows these games always to be tightly contested affairs and I see no change here. Some people may argue that Liverpool will be motivated by revenge, or this being their last game of the season to get a win, but if you've watched Liverpool games this season, there have been countless occasions for them to respond to bad results and they have failed to do so. Thinking they will do so now to me is more reflective of wishful thinking and blind faith then a sound betting approach. So with the above in mind I have gone with. Back CS 0-0 @ 13 (Betfair) Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 (Betfair) Back Chelsea +0.75 AH @ 2.05 (Betfair) GL.
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Re: NRL: Round 9 2012 Tough loss that...losing in the last 2 minutes. Hard to win any game when your held to 0 in a half. :puke Despite the Tigers recent upturn in form, they really are an ordinary outfit. A bye next week for them but would gladly oppose them again.
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Re: NRL: Round 9 2012 ***In-running bet*** Gold Coast Titans ML @ 1.91 (Betfair) HT Score 14-6 in favour of the Titans. Fantastic looking bet. Tigers look completely uninterested, don't see them coming back in the second half. Big bet for me. GL.
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Re: NRL: Round 8 2012 Thought the Eels would come close...while the Sharks proved they are the real deal. Love watching this team play.
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Re: NRL: Round 8 2012 Cowboys don't show up for a whole half and it cost them. Like the Sharks today and maybe a sneaky on the Eels - I know they are rubbish, but they impressed me with the way the played 2 weeks ago at Toyota Park. They really pushed the Sharks all the way and could quite easily have tied or stolen the game late. If they show the same effort at home to the Tiges, then they're a real chance. Beat the Tigers Rd 18 last year at Parramatta Stadium.
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Re: NRL: Round 8 2012 Cowboys 3-0 in away games so far this season. With a near full strength side bar the absence of Scott should run all over what is IMO a very average Rabbitohs team. Noticed in last nights Bulldogs Manly game Sportingbet advertising their best pick for the round is the Cowboys which is always a little off putting - the cynic in me sees it as a great method for squaring the ledger. Nonetheless still looks the correct play here. Cowboys ML @ 2.01 (Betfair) big stake Edit: Cowboys winning margin 13+ pts @ 4.60 (Betfair) small stake
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Re: NRL: Round 8 2012 Right with you on this one Mehman...Storm H2H and the over 36.5. Think we'll see a lot of points tonight if the Warriors form of 2012 continues. Been dreadful away from home and really poor defending their line. While the Storm's attack is mesmerising defenders at times with quick ball movement and multiple option running.
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Re: NRL: Round 8 2012 How is it that the unbeaten Storm are 1.41 (Vic TAB price) to beat the Warriors who are ranked 9th, but were priced lower against a better team in the Bulldogs only a week prior? Doesn't make sense to me. I know the Warriors had a good win against the Rabbitohs at home, but on the road they have been miserable against average opposition. Am I missing something here or are the bookies factoring in the fact that the Warriors of last season beat the Storm twice at AAMI park. Personally I wouldn't have thought that would have anything to do with it.
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Watched the first half...:rollinquite incredible that a country with a league like this could ever produce players like Messi, Aguero etc. It is tempting to get out of my 0-0 with a small profit but I don't really see any reason too.
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread
Probably just penalties. Have followed advice of Nervous Anorak and backed the 0-0...always has a good chance of cashing in the Argentinian league.Thanks for your post mate. I've gone for an under 1.5 goals stake and a larger under 2.5 goals stake too. During the Apertura, Juniors seemed to struggle with goals at home, and Union with goals away. It even looks as if Union relied upon their keeper for some goals too during the Apertura!! -
Re: England > Midweek > Carling Cup > 10-11 January Despite Man City's absences I fail to see who will score goals for Liverpool, especially if Daglish plays Carroll upfront on his own again, which I suspect he will. Despite their rather fortunate 5-1 win against Oldham on Friday night, Liverpool really are dreadful side at finishing chances this year. In Liverpool's recent league game against City they started with Carroll upfront and created almost nothing going forward - the Downing 1 on 1 with Hart the only real chance that springs to mind. I expect to see a similar game with both sides possibly a little more defensive given there a 2 legs, but in the end City should still be able to find a goal or 2 to take to Anfield. Back Man City to win @ 2.06 (Betfair) Cover bet on 0-0...just in case city struggle to break Liverpool down
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Been an awful round so far for me really. Apologies to all who have followed me. Hopefully can make up for it with 2 solid looking plays today which would push me near break-even. Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory I think this will be a really tight tussle between 2 clubs that will be desperate for points from this game. Melbourne have struggled to score at home having played out 2 0-0's , and their only 2 goals came against a team that they were able to play on the counter against in Brisbane Roar. Perth won't be pushing many men forward here, as they have eroded any confidence and momentum they gained from a good start to the season by losing their last 3 games (2 away) and scoring on only 1 occasion. I feel Melbourne will have just enough to get the win here and break the streak of 3 draws at home. I've watched all of Perth's away games and they really offer very little in attack, while their defence is pretty solid, but they tend to make 1 or 2 crucial errors in a game which I think Melbourne will take advantage of and get their first home win of the season. Back Melbourne Victory win @ 1.94 (Betfair) Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair) Back Melbourne Victory win 2-0 @ 10.5 (Betfair) small bet
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Congrats on picking the Heart Blackcrow. :clap
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Heart took their chances well, but overall Gold Coast played some lovely passing football at times and were quite unlucky with some no calls on a clear penalty and hitting the wood work several times. The changes to both sides seemed to hurt Gold Coast more, with their back line unusually shaky. Managed to get out of my main under bet for a loss at HT, as it was quite evident from the chances in the first half that this was a very open game. Wellington v Adelaide Not much to be said here. Wellington despite 2 recent losses at home to Melbourne and CCM are a good home team and should be able to take advantage of a Adelaide defence that has been dreadful all season. Back Wellington @ 2.34 (Betfair) Newcastle v Brisbane 2 draws on the trot against teams that have either been forced to defend deep or have chosen to due to inferiority. I don't see Newcastle playing this way at home in front of their fans and with the temptation to be the team that breaks Brisbane's streak of 34 games unbeaten I expect Newcastle to come out and play. This should leave plenty of space for the Roar players to exploit and get them the win. Of course we will have to endure the horribly awful Nakajima-Farran another week in the absence of Nichols. Back Brisbane to win @ 1.91 (Betfair) Sydney v CCM Always tight fixtures between these two NSW teams and I am expecting nothing less here, with both sides proving to be very solid at the back, and with very defensive minded managers in charge. ***Back under 2.5 @ 1.78 + (Betfair) - waiting for liquidity in this market.*** Decided against the under 2.5 as the odds have dropped down to almost 1.70. Instead going to take Sydney FC to just nick it at pretty nice odds. Back Sydney to win @ 2.32 (Betfair)
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Gold Coast v Melbourne Heart Despite Heart missing more key players here then Gold Coast, I still see this contest as quite even. Dugandzic is a huge loss in terms of creating and scoring goals for Heart, having scored 3 of his clubs 8 goals this season. But this for me is balanced out by the loss of Brown for Gold Coast. He has played a similarly important role for Gold Coast having scored half of his teams goals from midfield, most of which have been crackers too. With both sides missing key attacking players but keeping their defences relatively in tact the best and most obvious play for me is the under 2.5. Been killing them so far in this league and I see this as another perfect opportunity to back it again here. I am also leaning towards Gold Coast, but they are far too short to be backing at that price. Also given the absence of goals in recent games, going with under 1.5 goals as well for a little extra interest - just a small play. Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair) Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.35 (Betfair) smaller bet GL.
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix Everything points to a comfortable win here for the Roar. Having reviewed the game Phoenix played against Perth a few weeks ago, Perth managed to get in behind Wellington's defence on numerous occasions, but failed with their finishing, the game ending 1-0. I don't see this happening with the Roar, who are such a well drilled outfit that especially with the dangerous Berisha upfront they should have no problems putting chances away. Agree with everyone else's tips above on backing Roar on the handicap -1.5 @ 1.97 (Betfair) GL guys, lets hope we finishing the weekend on a high note.:ok
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Perth very poor...Sydney not that much better. Why Ferguson didn't start Sterjovski and Dodd is beyond me. He had Miller on the wing??? So much for the good start. Anyway been another great weekend so far in the A-League. Hoping to top it off with the Roar belting Wellington which I think they will do after their disappointment of last week.
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Perth v Sydney Both teams have struggled to prove they can score goals this season. Really tough game to pick here, but I'm on a good run with my over/unders so far and think it's worth another go in this game. Just too hard to pick which side will come out on top. So going with another low scorer. Back under 2.5 @ 1.78 (Betfair).
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory Under 2.5 @ 1.91 (Betfair) Sorry no time for writeup...looks a really solid play given this is the CCM who don't create a lot and Melbourne Victory without a lot of their stars.
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Re: Australian A League Season 2011/2012 Was going to back Adelaide but not that convinced with their attack yet. Rather then guess when they will hit it off happy to wait. Plus GC have set up defensive here and their pre season game ended 0-0 so could be a repeat. Making a small play on Gold Coast HT / Adelaide FT @ 27 (Betfair) Just think it's worth a try seeings as Gold Coast seem to score first in almost all their games and then really fall away in the 2nd half, much like they did against Sydney. Could lightning strike twice?
Stoke City v Liverpool > Sunday January 12th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Stoke City v Liverpool > Sunday January 12th
:rollin:rollin:rollin Liverpool... Everything has gone to script as I said above. Beautiful stuff watching Liverpool try to defend.