That Foreign Guy
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Posts posted by That Foreign Guy
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Re: Odds evolution question Player 2 has a better chance to win in both examples and a slightly better chance of winning in example 2. If opening lines were more accurate than closing lines in any significant subset of cases intelligent bettors would bet the near closing line back to the opening line and therefore the closing line would be about as efficient as the opening line.
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Re: Historical NFL Price Data You can get a decent estimation of money line (head to head) from the pointspread.
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Re: Historical NFL Price Data I have the last four or five years of closing line (pointspread only I think) sitting around my hard drive somewhere. LMK if this helps.
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Re: MUCK System - 40 bets , 67.5% Win , +61.94% Yield Luckily I was only following you on the last one yesterday so you're 100% so far with me ;)
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Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield Thanks. By the way, if you take U10.5 in the Dortmund game at Bwin @1.75 you have a win on exactly 10. Don't know how much lineshopping you are doing or the value of exactly 10 corners but that seems superior to me.
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Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield Is it U11 with 11 as a push or U11, 11 loses? I'll see if I can track down some old corner odds for you, who knows what I have magpied away.
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Re: Just won £50 quid on Roulette with this system...
Your sample size is too small. But yeah you show one of the problems of martingale. http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html I'll summarise: NO STAKING SYSTEM CAN TURN A -EV BET IN TO A +EV BET absolutely not, no way never, you would actually be more likely to successfully build a perpetual motion machine. Besides, real men reverse martingale. Rudyard Kipling says so! "If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breathe a word about your loss; .... you'll be a Man, my son!" :cowI created an Excel random number generator and let it workout how you would fare over a few thousand days - betting where you played the martingale approach. It showed a positive yield of around 9% (assuming you start with a 50p stake). The bad news is you'd need around £62,000 to cover your biggest loosing streak. -
Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. Because blind betting draws is not profitable it does not mean that betting on a particular draw is not +EV. I'd be willing to bet that betting all home teams or all away teams or all favourites or all underdogs would also have been unprofitable.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 296 bets +26% yield. I often wind up "cheering" for a 0 - 0 it's the one correct score price I find value in (and am able to model much easier than any other). Mind you when I say cheering I actually mean wandering round the supermarket completely ignoring the game. Nice start to the season anyway even if I didn't get on the tips. :(
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 287 bets +23% yield You're becoming popular. Two of those lines have moved already.
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Re: Help needed How are you going to get punters, pay for payment processing, web hosting, etc without money? I hope your business plan doesn't involve running like Jesus on your first weekend because Murphy's law applies to new business more than anything else. I don't want to sound like I'm making fun of you, it's intended as helpful advice but I've been through the startup process with a couple gaming companies and money is vital. You'd be amazed how much money you burn through before you even try to open your doors.
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Re: Rugby Quarb System It sounds like he's calculating fair %s from the mean bookie prices (convert the prices to percent and then divide by the total). That's the subjective probability of winning. The difference between that and the outlier's probability of winning is the edge part of the kelly equation.
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Re: Help needed If you just want the calculation function to work out returns etc on your own betting it's do-able in excel. If you're talking about becoming a bookmaker then yeah you need to look in to software providers, coding it all from scratch is going to be harder and more expensive for a worse product. I haven't had any direct experience, but know people who say Finsoft are good and they do have some big clients.
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Re: Fastest goal at the World Cup Finals 2010 They seem to have taken it down or I can't find it. Either way :(
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Re: Betfair Trading That makes sense. For whatever reason I was thinking 2.5 was a median or goals had a continual distribution so something.
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Re: Betfair Trading Am I thick? If the expected number of goals is 2.5, why is the under a favourite? Expected goals is a hypothetical average, but do most goal models really include the results like 7-0?
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season
Like that, except it's "undred percent". FWIW I don't think Liverpool will throw it. But Chelsea are a better side, playing better at the moment, less tired, and have a good chance to do the double so I don't see Liverpool winning either. I don't follow Serie A closely, but Lazio's massive "doubtful" list makes me think they'll be playing a weakened side (and the manager's convenient ban means it's not his fault if anyone is angry they lose). It smells like a fix to me....... just like many people expect Liverpool to lay down on Sunday against Chelsea to stop Man United from winning the Premiership ???? -
Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season My Italian friend thinks that Lazio are going to lay down to prevent Roma getting the title and recommends betting 100% of your bankroll on Inter Milan. That might not be the kelly recommended stake but otherwise his argument is convincing.
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Re: System test question football-data.co.uk has the max and average bookie price for 1x2 matches going back several years. Get those prices, see what your system would have suggested you to bet on (whatever the biggest % difference in your favour between bookie price and yours is - ie when your correct price is lower than the bookies). See if your system shows a profit. It's not very difficult excel work.
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Re: Betfair Trading
For trading? I do a little WOM and a little trend-chasing. I also try to round trip crabbing markets. By that I mean join the back and lay queue when the market has volume but no trend, especially when there's good support volume in both directions.What type os systems do you use foriegn guy? -
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 280 bets +23% yield Unfortunately, the bookies don't need to buy muppet's system. They're not looking for the most accurate predictions, they're looking for the most profitable ones. Especially on spreadbetting they have an incentive to shade the line as people who make bad bets are the majority of their customers. If I was muppet what I would do (if I didn't like my day job and wasn't winning enough on the system) would be use the system as proof I can do bookie-math and try to get a job as a trader.
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Re: Betfair Trading I do a very limited amount of Betfair trading. It's something I've been meaning to get more in to but find it's just not as fun as spreadsheeting a nice betting system. Plus I lack the discipline to close positions for a loss so wind up with some random -EV gambles when things go wrong.
Starting strategy to improve bank
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Starting strategy to improve bank Learn how to best use signup bonuses. That should get you up to a couple hundred pretty easily.