Kumquat Tree
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Posts posted by Kumquat Tree
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Re: value in the outsider After watching most of the Bayern v Mainz game this afternoon, we can at least say that this was really a value bet. Bayern did struggle far more than one should except against odds of 17. (Although Mainz still did not leave me with a 3.85 impression.)
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Re: 25 years with only 1 losing trade Had just a quick glance at it. But as I see it, you neglected to account for more than 1,000 points loss on the buy signal in March '02. So probably you should doublecheck for sheet once more before we take a deeper look into it ...
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Re: Need a reccomendation for a system Oh sure it does. Couldn't believe myself at first. But then I googled "easy money online" and found out how. As I am not greedy, I limited the system to 600 per week to let fellow punters the chance to make some profit from the bookies too. But of course you can double or triple the profit per week to 1200 or even 1800 by running the easy to use tool I wrote for the system, two or three instances at the same time. So running it parallel three times and placing no bet all, triples the profit.
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Re: Need a reccomendation for a system
Hi Jane from Spain. I am more than happy to share my system with you. I think it fits all your basic requirements. It has made a steady profit for 1 1/2 years now. Horses, Tennis, Football, Darts, Snooker, even Baseball. The system makes around 1200-1400 Euro per week out of a starting bank of only 10 Euro, depending on the number of bets placed. In weeks in which you prefer just to hang out on the beaches all day, it still earns you around 600, without placing any bet at all. Usually I would charge you 39.95 in compensation for the 3 years of hard effort, I put into developing it. But as it is you, I'm willing to mail it to you for free. Best, Kumquat TreeBasically I need a system that has proven record of making profit and will tell me exactly what to bet on. Does this kind of system exist? I am completly new to this so I am still learning the ropes. -
Re: value in the outsider I'm familiar with the concept of value. And to be honest, picking Mainz at odds of 17.00, no problem at all. That's possible. So I don't argue against your pick as it is. Also, I'm not arguing if Mainz has 10% chance of winning in Munich or if it's 6%. But whatever formula you are using, it says it's 25% chance of winning. So you'd even pick Mainz at 4.00 or 5.00. And for someone who knows quite of lot of Bundesliga, I tell you that those 25% is as realistic as if I tell you, there is a 25% chance that Jennifer Aniston will accept my marriage proposal.
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Re: value in the outsider Still does not explain. - Bayern won last 3 home, unbeaten for 13 home. - Bayern did not lose a match, home or away, since September. - Mainz lost last 3 away, did not win last 7 away. - There were 3 games at Munich ever, all Bayern. - There were 7 overall games ever, 5 Bayern, 1 draw, 1 Mainz. So neither with recent form nor with H2H, I cannot imagine why your formula shall give 1 in 4 to Mainz. Only thing is that Mainz won the 1st leg 2-1. That was a stunner. If such single event 5 months ago leads to such percentage, then something is wrong. (Opinion, not wisdom, of course!) Or perhaps you should check the data input once again?
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Re: value in the outsider No idea how you select your value outsiders. But something shows me, there must be a huge problem with the selection mode. A Mainz win in Munich can never never never be fair value at 3.85. This looks terribly wrong. And just to make sure, I checked the Munich home game odds for the last couple of years. Except for Werder Bremen visiting in 06-07 season, no away team was ever quoted 3.85 or below to win at Munich.
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Re: Half Time Result
I have analysed the seasons 9394-0809 in Bundesliga' date= Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A and Ligue 1 to see how the GR is related to the half time result. This gives me my probabilities for a half time home win, draw or away win for every GR. Actually, you should consider 58(%). Home field advantage has shifted down a little bit in the last 4 1/2 seasons. -
Re: My Football live betting 0-0 draw system 30% profit. Scientifically proven. Of course it is a "system". Wait for inplay match to stay 0-0 after 80 minutes. Check if odds on the draw are greater than 1.45. Back the draw. Sounds like a system to me. It's just not that profitable as claimed. I even doubt it's profitable at all. Because odds on a 0-0/80 mins match can easily be 1.50s. Even climbing up to 1.60. But that's not automatically value then. Could be, a draw would not be favourable for either side, then late scoring is somewhat more likely as team don't cease to play football more and more from minute to minute. Could be that 0-0 is an accident. Goals denied, twice or three times testing the woodwork, brilliant goalies that evening etc. But still it's a system.
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Re: My Football live betting 0-0 draw system 30% profit. Scientifically proven.
That's why you should always trade out after 88-89 mins. You won't really risk your profit on some ref putting up an unexpected amount of injury time just to see your money going down the drain due to some late goal after 90+3 or 90+4 minutes. You know that in injury time, goals are scored like 50% above the average minute in a game? Happens far to often to make profit out of usual 1.10 to 1.12 on the draw/no goal short before injury time is announced. But that's just personal experience, that is happens that way around most of the time, not statistical proven data.Some interesting constructive criticisms. Thanks. But if anyone had used this system tonight they would have made money of 10-20%. Rotherham scoring on 90 was the only bad one. -
Re: My Football live betting 0-0 draw system 30% profit. Scientifically proven.
Mate, you probably were somewhat lucky in picking the right games until now. Or maybe it's "just that time of the year". I remember playing the no goal markets, i.e. laying the correct score, laying the draw, laying the no next goal, some time ago and making a nice four-digit profit in only about 50+ Premier league matches fooling around with a couple of hundreds per game. Must have been late 2006 or something like that. But from one day to the other, that "system" disappeared. Later I compiled some stats showing - that for whatever reason - the goals had "disappeared" for a while. There was a time when scoring was significant lower in Premier League for a couple of weeks. Unnoticed at first. I was just lucky to be there in the right place at the right time. But soon people started to notice: "Where are the goals?" And therefore late game odds shifted downwards to adjust to new probabilities. Taking away my "system". Which was: Lay the draw/0-0 late in the game. So maybe it's "just that time of the year" again ... ;)Hi. Surely that is the scientific evidence in favour of my system:cheers. I get about 4 out of 5 right so 8 out of 10 which is close to your 7 in 10. Only by not choosing some games I am slightly better. -
Re: My Football live betting 0-0 draw system 30% profit. Scientifically proven.
Probably he forgot to post the link where you can buy the more detailed knowledge for only 39.95. And BTW: By compiling up some goal time database from the tons of results pages in the internet, I have scientifically proven to myself, that only 7 in 10 games end in a draw, if 0-0 after 80 mins. So much for your science ... ;)And where is the part with the systems scientifical proof? -
Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) If this is not a hoax, then this someone must have made a gazillion bucks in profits here. Remember: 8-12% per game. Not a single loss since June. Do the math, even with only one game per day. And with that system still working, he would put up a gazillion bucks on HT 0-0 lay other every game, hoping to get matched. Sorry, don't see a gazillion bucks waiting to be matched on HT 0-0 lay. Not in a single game for the last weeks. Can't be done.
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Re: Work this one out!! (Lunatism where are you?) This is a hoax, isnt't it? Designed by some wannabe comedian who laughs off his a×× while feeding folks some fake info about the "Holy Grail" in what is basically playing the 1+ goals market and having them spending hours and hours searching for? :loon
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Re: U/O, both score and 1x2 system using grading for value
But what about transfers? Such systems can be very unrealible for a couple of weeks.An interesting concept' date= Gloryhunters. I am also in the process of developing a similar (I think) ranking system - at the beginning of the season teams are allocated points based on their finishing position the previous season. -
Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010) Betfair odds (last matched) Angola outright 10.00 Ghana outright 12.00 Angola to qualify 1.70 Ghana to quality 2.42 Angola: 10.00 / 1.70 = 5.88 Ghana: 12.00 / 2.42 = 4.96 So today's underdog more likely to win later matches, if they advance today, than today's favorite? What am I missing? Crucial Ghana player suspended for today? :unsure
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Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks for the welcome. Good point, relf. But in other words you say: If one of out three systems predict value, you go for it. If all three, you don't? So you bet on something that two out of your three system say, you shouldn't. I am getting I bit confused here, the longer I think about running three systems in parallel?!
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Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ??
But what about running independent systems on the same market and only placing a bet all if three (or at least two out of three) predict a value bet?I think you cannot bet with independent systems on the same market without forfeiting a part of the profit.
value in the outsider
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: value in the outsider
Midfield and possession were all Bayern, no doubt. But that is not very surprising if you have an away side defending with basically 10 men and having only one upfront hoping for the lucky punch. Bayern had a lot of shots on goal looking impressive in the statistics sheet, but they were mostly harmless. So besides hitting the post once and missing a penalty in the 1st half, there was no real threat to the Mainz goal in the first 45. Since it took Bayern some 60 mins to score the first, and that only because of a terrible error of Mainz goalkeeper, I have seen teams with better odds get beaten more worse and starting earlier in Bayern stadium.