rolf
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Posts posted by rolf
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July Nice picks Mr Intensity, especially the Webber that is a nice price. I've noticed that Ladbrokes has Kovalainen at 8.0 and Bet365 at 7.0. These could be accurate odds if you ignored his steady improvement. The FP times for the McLarens are pretty good and we saw last race that he has the one lap pace. I think that these prices are vastly underestimating his ability. Same for Betfair which is why I've decided to have a punt on him here too. Shame there are no E/W prices but nevertheless this is value I can't ignore. btw the chart for price/volume is interesting, I see a recent run on his price. So to summarise my picks and matched bets for the race which are unlikely to be added to after qualifying: Qualifying KOVALAINEN @ 11.0 Betfair 19-Jul-08 Fastest Lap RAIKKONEN @ 2.24 Betfair 17-Jul-08 Race Win MASSA @ 5 Betfair 17-Jul-08
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July FP1 has started and track is wet. Rain is still coming down. Don't infer anything from the times set. Wet weather is so changable that the times don't mean anything even if the race or quali are wet.
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Re: rolf123's Formula One Betting Thread Oh and btw, assume a starting bank of £100. I will mostly bet in £5 amounts and maybe 3 to 4 bets per race.
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Re: rolf123's Formula One Betting Thread My latest thoughts on the race and picks, also cross-posted in the Other Sports Forum thread: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July btw stay tuned because I'm going to post some info on using the live timing tool shortly and other bits and pieces.
Most weather reports have a dry race on Sunday and more rain on Saturday. It's still too close to call at this moment and anyone's guess what the weather will be like. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Hockenheim http://weather.weatherbug.co.uk/Germany/Hockenheim-weather/local-forecast/7-day-forecast.html?zcode=z6286&lang_id=en-gb http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?wealocations=wc:8206099&q=Hockenheim%2c+DEU+forecast:tenday http://www.accuweather.com/world-index-forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&locCode=EUR%7CDE%7CGM001%7CHOCKENHEIM%7C&u=1 http://weather.yahoo.com/forecast/GMXX1608_c.html The concensus looks like Sunday will possibly be dry and Saturday will probably be intermittent showers (not unlike here in the UK at the moment). Will it affect the qualifying? That is difficult to tell right now. However, I will go out on a limb and think that Sunday will be dry. The last few races have shown some freak results due to weather and other conditions but Ferrari still look the best in race trim, setting the best times on the long runs in the dry. Even if they lose out in qualifying, they should still qualify within the top 4, if not the top 6. In the race, they have to be fancied. btw I just noticed that the smart money confirms this. On betfair the winning car odds for Ferrari are 1.78, greater than 50% chance which I believe is correct. One thing to note is that the safety car odds on betfair are currently around 2.0 for Yes vs 1.6 for No. If rain looks more likely on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how these odds change. The only value I can see at the moment is for the fastest lap. I normally don't think much of past form but if you look at Kimi in years gone by he is a master of extracting the fastest lap out of the car. Sure, he could use the Michelins better than the Bridgestones but he often goes for the fastest lap of the race for fun, even on the last lap. Betfair has him at the best price of 2.22 for the fastest lap. Personally I think the chances of him getting it are way over 50% so see this as value. £5 on Kimi for fastest lap. Also, looking at the overall winner, Stan James and Bet365 have Kimi and Lewis on just shy or equal to 3. They also have Massa close behind. Whereas Betfair has Massa way out at 4.9 which I simply don't understand. Perhaps there are simply too many Lewis lovers on Betfair who are driving the price down. Yes, Massa has had tough times of late but to say that he only has a 20% chance of winning is ludicrous. If the weather is dry then he has an excellent chance of winning the race, and perhaps even in the wet too. I see this as too good value so another £5 on Massa for the win on Betfair. If the odds realign themselves I could even lay out before the race if I wanted to but I probably won't. FP1 starts tomorrow at 9am UK time. You can get the live stream here: http://www.itv-f1.com/VideoLive.aspx Don't forget the live timing here: :ok http://www.formula1.com/services/live_timing/live_timing_popup.html -
Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July Most weather reports have a dry race on Sunday and more rain on Saturday. It's still too close to call at this moment and anyone's guess what the weather will be like. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Hockenheim http://weather.weatherbug.co.uk/Germany/Hockenheim-weather/local-forecast/7-day-forecast.html?zcode=z6286&lang_id=en-gb http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?wealocations=wc:8206099&q=Hockenheim%2c+DEU+forecast:tenday http://www.accuweather.com/world-index-forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&locCode=EUR%7CDE%7CGM001%7CHOCKENHEIM%7C&u=1 http://weather.yahoo.com/forecast/GMXX1608_c.html The concensus looks like Sunday will possibly be dry and Saturday will probably be intermittent showers (not unlike here in the UK at the moment). Will it affect the qualifying? That is difficult to tell right now. However, I will go out on a limb and think that Sunday will be dry. The last few races have shown some freak results due to weather and other conditions but Ferrari still look the best in race trim, setting the best times on the long runs in the dry. Even if they lose out in qualifying, they should still qualify within the top 4, if not the top 6. In the race, they have to be fancied. btw I just noticed that the smart money confirms this. On betfair the winning car odds for Ferrari are 1.78, greater than 50% chance which I believe is correct. One thing to note is that the safety car odds on betfair are currently around 2.0 for Yes vs 1.6 for No. If rain looks more likely on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how these odds change. The only value I can see at the moment is for the fastest lap. I normally don't think much of past form but if you look at Kimi in years gone by he is a master of extracting the fastest lap out of the car. Sure, he could use the Michelins better than the Bridgestones but he often goes for the fastest lap of the race for fun, even on the last lap. Betfair has him at the best price of 2.22 for the fastest lap. Personally I think the chances of him getting it are way over 50% so see this as value. £5 on Kimi for fastest lap. Also, looking at the overall winner, Stan James and Bet365 have Kimi and Lewis on just shy or equal to 3. They also have Massa close behind. Whereas Betfair has Massa way out at 4.9 which I simply don't understand. Perhaps there are simply too many Lewis lovers on Betfair who are driving the price down. Yes, Massa has had tough times of late but to say that he only has a 20% chance of winning is ludicrous. If the weather is dry then he has an excellent chance of winning the race, and perhaps even in the wet too. I see this as too good value so another £5 on Massa for the win on Betfair. If the odds realign themselves I could even lay out before the race if I wanted to but I probably won't. FP1 starts tomorrow at 9am UK time. You can get the live stream here: http://www.itv-f1.com/VideoLive.aspx Don't forget the live timing here: :ok http://www.formula1.com/services/live_timing/live_timing_popup.html
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Re: rolf123's Formula One Betting Thread cheers Datapunter! Sounds like a good idea. I will also post additional stuff here like my tools of the trade and non race specific stuff.
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Re: rolf123's Formula One Betting Thread Thanks guys, I posted the below in the other thread too: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f16/f1-german-grand-prix-20th-july-70093/
Any suggestions for what to put in this thread and what to put in the other? Maybe just my pure selections and profit and loss here and then all the rationale in the "Other Sports" thread? What do you reckon chaps? cheers rolfWeather forecast shows high probability of rain on Sunday and lesser chances for FP1+2 on Friday and FP3+quali on Saturday. This is a medium downforce circuit with a few straights but no high speed corners. Instead, slower corners such as the stadium section and long, heavy braking zones. Under dry conditions I would normally expect Ferrari to do well here because they are now very good on these types of circuits and are no longer vulberable to McLaren. However, throw in the mix of likely rain for Sunday and anything could happen. I will refrain from betting until tomorrow or Friday as the forecasts will be more accurate the closer we get. -
Weather forecast shows high probability of rain on Sunday and lesser chances for FP1+2 on Friday and FP3+quali on Saturday. This is a medium downforce circuit with a few straights but no high speed corners. Instead, slower corners such as the stadium section and long, heavy braking zones. Under dry conditions I would normally expect Ferrari to do well here because they are now very good on these types of circuits and are no longer vulberable to McLaren. However, throw in the mix of likely rain for Sunday and anything could happen. I will refrain from betting until tomorrow or Friday as the forecasts will be more accurate the closer we get.
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Hi all, This is my first post here (I think) :nana and I've noticed how there is so little written on F1, only being single threads for each race. Naturally, in a sport that does not have anywhere near as many serious punters compared to footie and horse racing, plus less understood by the bookies plus unpredictable - then I think it can offer great value. :D I'm not using a system that spits out tips but instead just using my judgement, based on my experience and knowledge of this passion of mine. Because there are so few races each year and I don't want to wait till season end, I'll be betting at each race and having several bets on each race to diversify, probably between 5 and 10. I'll post my selections (qualifying and the race):
- A few days before the race (this gives enough time for local weather and testing considerations). I might even bet much earlier if I think I spot very good value anywhere, although not taking weather and testing into account is normally folly.
- Before qualifying (this gives time to consider the free practice results, probably I will wait for all practice sessions to be completed although I may bet early to try to get more value). I believe there could be a lot of value here because the average punter does not even look at all 3 practice sessions. I will pick quali selections and possibly race selections as well.
- After qualifying - my picks for the race.
- Edit: F1 can offer some great in-running opportunities due to the crashes, lack of reliability, strategy, weather etc. etc. Reacting quickly can give you an edge. Also, I may lay out some bets to secure profits towards the end of races.
Edit: all my picks will be to back so you don't need any bankroll in order to lay. Next race is the German GP on Sunday 20th July. First practice session is Friday 18th so expect my first picks by midweek. I'd love to hear any of your own picks or thoughts. Cheers :ok
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Re: rolf123's Formula One Betting Thread Latest update in: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July