rolf
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Posts posted by rolf
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Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Hello all, Been a while since I've been here. Maybe you remember that I tipped Brawn back in 2009 and made at least one happy punter here (Crouch) :) , wish I had the balls to put my money down myself! :wall Anyway, my tip for this weekend is that same team again, except now called Mercedes. For the following reasons:
- low temperatures expected, which means Mercedes should be up to speed (previously struggled with high temps)
- Nico Rosberg claims to have one second improvements in the simulator. Will this translate to the track?
- NOT an aero track except for Turn 8 which is traction limited, so Red Bull won't be amazing here
- Merc have a good DRS and this should benefit them on the huge straight, DRS zone is very long here
Merc will definitely grab a podium, if there is some way of betting on that it is damn near a sure thing. 7@Betfair for Rosberg, 14 for Schumi. I can't bet right now because it's illegal where I am but I normally would! FTW are great odds too. 22 For Merc is fantastic. Basically, the value on these bets is fantastic, the market hasn't yet caught up. You could probably lay out before the race if you wanted to. PS if you're a value better with high volume (I don't bet often) then go for the win, you could even go for the driver win, the odds are just ridiculous.
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Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Today is the last day (3rd) of the first test. Here are the general thoughts by F1 afficionados: - Ferrari look up there, as do McLaren (with Hamilton at least). - Mercedes is also probably up there but may be lagging slightly behind. - McLaren may even be sandbagging. People are waiting to see a low fuel run from Hamilton. - Sauber are the big surprise so far by posting consistently good times. Unlikely to be championship challengers but definitely not far behind. - Alonso got up to speed extremely quickly in his first test in the Ferrari today - Very early days yet, but so far Button is not yet matching Hamilton in the McLaren. Yes, it's early days but you could look at Alonso and he is already up to speed The wildcard is Red Bull (who are not participating in this test). Nobody has any idea how fast they will be compared to everyone else. Most people think they should be challenging for the championship. Also, Adrian Newey is regarded as having got to grips again with championship winning aero since last year. Given the engines are frozen (development-wise), all that matters now is aero (and fuel consumption). Who would I bet on? Massa is still consistently underpriced. I surmise that this is due to public perception of him, being in the shadow of WDCs. And yet in 2007, 2008 and 2009 he has not showed any quarter given against Kimi. So I think a good bet at 9.8@Betfair. Also I'd go on Red Bull as a pure speculative bet. Either it will come in or it won't. Vettel is 8.2@Betfair. For all we know, come the next test they could "do a Brawn" and blow everyone away. Why do I think this? Because Newey is known as the best aerodynamicist in F1 when he gets it right. Look at this year's cars and nearly all are featuring the unique nose that he designed last year. Would be hilarious if he changes concept entirely and everyone is forced to play catch up again.
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Last year I tipped Brawn to do well (click here) though I failed to put my money where my mouth was!! . That's because the bookies and most punters don't hear about testing (or realise the ramifications) until the evening news. This year many of the cars have already been shown. McLaren in particular looks really good, instead of going for last year's Red Bull nose (which most teams have done), they also have a sharks fin that extends to the rear wing and many other cool features. But today is the first day of testing. If McLaren, Schumacher (or anyone else) blow everyone away today then I would put money on them immediately and lay off in the evening or later :D This is the best thread to follow for news: http://forums.autosport.com/index.php?showtopic=116947
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Re: Formula One - Australian GP - 29 March 2009 Just want to add that every day that they test, Brawn is still looking top. This is the single best source of info of the planet for test information and discussion by seasoned armchair experts :) http://forums.autosport.com/showthread.php?s=&postid=3515703#post3515703
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Perhaps a little early but one to watch is Brawn. Yesterday they set a blistering pace at Barcelona. Their laptimes were less than qualifying pace for other teams who are running scared. The mainstream media have only just got a hold of this today. Everyone expected Brawn to be at the back of the grid given that this is their one and only test. However, they have been working on this car for close to 2 years and their aerodynamics are very unique. Could they be running underweight to get sponsors on board? It's possible and it has been done before by Prost GP several years ago. However, you have to question why a team would not want to get meaningful data at their very first and what may be their one and only test (although I understand they are going to Jerez). If the other teams don't catch up then one of the drivers would naturally be in the running for the drivers championship, perhaps the constructors championship is a safer bet. There are no prices yet from Betfair (haven't checked elsewhere) for the Aussie GP but I'll be back when there are. For the moment, Brawn are 14.5 to win the WCC and Button/Barichello 25/34 to win the WDC. I'd say Barichello is the smarter bet with experience of winning and having outclassed his teammate last year.
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Re: Laying the draw You'd have to backtest it on variable amounts of 0-0 backing "insurance". I imagine different long term results depending on how much you back on that 0-0.
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Re: Over/Under 1.5 Any tips on how to predict this? I have assembled a table for last season and season to date showing: mean, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness for each team but still none the wiser!
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Hi all, I'm developing a system which I hope to share the logic with soon. The great thing about it is that it is built in "blocks", a bit like object orientated programming. So, I can tweak each block until I'm happy with it. Here is where I am perplexed: What is more important? Form or power rating and by what percentage? Here's what I mean. Let's say that we wanted to rank the current premier league. Of course, the league position, especially at this early stage of the season, means absolutely nothing. In the long run it will but at the beginning it is almost meaningless. Clearly when we rank one team against another we need some form of a power rating. Secondly, form is also important. If we assume that Chelsea and Man United are pretty much equal then recent form will become significant. Sure, one team will have a home advantage, but I do also believe that form matters as well. So if you were to make your own "net ranking" based on existing power rating and form, what % would you assign to each? I am personally thinking of something like 75/25. I think the power rating dominates but form can sway it a little either side. What do you reckon?
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Re: Where to get possession and "turnover" stats for footie? thanks mate!
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Hi, Does anyone know where I can get historic possession data and turnover data for footie matches? Premier League would do. The first stat is commonly seen during the match but I can't find it on any websites - I don't need it in a nice tidy table, I don't mind going through several pages for it The second stat I believe is really important but I hardly ever see it anywhere. I personally believe that turnovers combined with possession are very important. I know that in America you get regular weeklies like "Basketball Digest". Maybe there is one for MLS soccer?
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Re: European Grand Prix 24th August wuhoo, i won on: - massa for the win - no safety car - rosberg and vettel to finish in the points (based on their quick pace in FP1+2) lost on sutil to finish in the points.
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Re: European Grand Prix 24th August Just had an in-play bet on there not being a safety car. Frankly, this race is a borefest, the only way we will get a SC is if a driver loses it on a fast section. £5 @ 1.75 on Betfair already dropped down to 1.53
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Re: European Grand Prix 24th August edit: doh I was looking at the points odds! the win odds are not 1.33!
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Re: European Grand Prix 24th August Even more arb opportunities on Betfair alone. for instance, Massa's chances of doing a quali/race double are the same as winning the race anyway (given he is starting from pole). And yet he is around 2 for the double and 1.33 for the win, lol! I never have funds in my account to try for arbs but seeing what I am this weekend, I am extremely tempted next time round to top up my account and go for it!
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Re: European Grand Prix 24th August There's some arb opportunities out there or value bets depending on how you see it. Betfair has both Massa and Hamilton @ 1.33 (obviously overvaluing the guy in 2nd place). But Bet365 and Stan James have Massa @ 2.25 and Hamilton @ 2.5. Because I know this will be Massa's day ;), I have punted on him @ 2.25. But anyway, if you're into arbing, there is some easy money there because you can easily lay at 1.3ish at Betfair with the liquidity.
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Re: Hungarian Grand Prix 3rd August Couldn't believe the engine going pop. Grr...... Maybe next time, I'll lay out with 5 laps to go...grrr... Anyway, with 10 laps to go, I had an in the running punt @ Betfair on Raikonnen at 1.07. Live timing showed he had a fastest lap one second faster than anyone else. There was simply no way anyone was going to beat that. I almost deposited more money into my account on this "dead cert".......
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Re: My Football Model - Have I Made A Mistake? Nice one slapdash, that helps a lot. The very interesting thing is that for each market, I'm finding that by changing a key variable, I can get a curve that shows how the yield decreases with increasing strike rate. But some markets almost always show a profit and there are varying amounts of volatility. What I need to find now is a market that has consistently been undervalued and shows a high yield, even at low strike rates. I think I can modify this for tennis too :)
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Re: My Football Model - Have I Made A Mistake? OK, I think my model is probably OK. I decided to retest my "simulator" for a completely different league. I took Serie A from last season and if you always bet on the favourite then you will yield about -3%. Of course, I am going to tweak various variables but you could even make such a basic system like "always bet on the favourite" just by testing different leagues alone. Now I need to compare year on year data and find the leagues that are the most promising in terms of least volatility....
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I've been playing around with some data from football-data and finally getting to grips with it, using a bit of VBA in Excel and plotting some different scenarios of strike rate and yield depending on factors that I tweak. Anyway, while simulating different scenarios, I just worked out that according to my model, if you always bet on the favourite premiership team to win (last season) then at the end of the year, you had a yield of about 2%. This happened if I used the average odds, or even just other bookies' odds on their own such as VC, Bet365 or Ladbrokes. Haven't checked the others yet. Now, can this really be true? I've double checked my model twice but I don't see any errors of my ways, yet. Just wanted to check if this sounds right. btw this is an aggregate result for the entire season with an equal stake each time I bet for the favourite team to win. Now of course, if you are ultra conservative and bet only on the dead cert favourites e.g. Chelsea vs Derby, then your strike rate goes up but your yield dives. But I was still amazed to see that you are still a winner (this 2% yield) even if you bet on every match where there is a clear favourite, even if only by a narrow margin. The strike rate comes out to around 58% for last season. What do you reckon, is this normal? I know that 2% is less than inflation but hey it's still up!
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Re: Hungarian Grand Prix 3rd August btw the price I got for Ferrari were: £[email protected] £[email protected] matched at Betfair
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Re: Hungarian Grand Prix 3rd August I've gone head to head Ferrari to beat McLaren. I'm not going on law of averages or anything but Ferrari are still strong. The strange pace at the last race has been discovered due to an anomoly with getting heat into the race tires. With the 2 compounds here being soft and super soft, I don't expect the same problems. Fingers crossed!
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July Will almost certainly be dry :ok: Picture from 20 minutes ago: http://i37.tinypic.com/dypvdd.jpg Weather radar from 5 minutes ago: http://i34.tinypic.com/zugqhz.jpg
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Re: F1 German Grand Prix 20th July Don't forget that the Ferrari still appears to have the edge for long runs. Hamilton may not yet run away with it. I fancy Massa to overtake during the pit stops.
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Re: rolf123's Formula One Betting Thread Here's a piece of good advice for qualifying. Monitor the times with the live timing tool: http://www.formula1.com/services/live_timing/live_timing_popup.html This is exactly the same that the team bosses have on the pit wall. What is interesting here is the wind speed and direction. If someone gets pole and then the wind suddenly picks up and becomes changable then no one will be able to touch him. I used this a few years back and managed to back the pole winner as soon as the wind picked up. About 10 seconds later, everyone else realised and his odds plumetted but I had already snapped up a great price. It's not often that this happens but it's always worth being ready for it.
F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights)
in Formula One Predictions
Posted
Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Too bad about Nico, what a bizarre race performance at Turkey. Noone could have predicted that. Now for Spain. This could be unpredictable due to tyres. The hards are 2 seconds worse than the softs and only last a little longer. It's likely that people will dump them a.s.a.p. and do as much of the race on softs as possible. Which means that the softs are all the more important. With only 3 sets, nobody will want to put any laptime on them at all. Quali today could be very interesting. I wouldn't like to predict anything before quali. Some may even opt to start from the back to keep fresh rubber. Whoever claims pole may live to regret it. The only thing easy to predict is that Vettel is likely to win again, no matter what happens, such is the pace of that Red Bull and his confidence. But is he value? Best you can get on him is 8/11 at Hills and Betfred, representing 77%. Perhaps this is a decent value bet as I can't see anyone touching him still and the RBR car is now seemingly bulletproof...... Frankly, I wouldn't bet on this race on the normal runners. Quali will be crazy, as will the race. It may be worth a punt on a mid-runner to get a points finish. Personally, I won't be staking any points on this though.