jl294
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Posts posted by jl294
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New hunt here. Any type of bets to be placed, any sport. Typically odds >20, but not set in stone. I'm aiming to turn £10 to £30.. Bet 1: Lay Half Time Score Any Unquoted - Reading v QPR To win £0.50 @ 20 Both teams have not much to play for.
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I am looking for peoples opinions on an idea i've had. Basically, the concept of choosing the odds on Betfair, for unmatched stakes. I think Drifters, through the power of traders on the exchange skew the real chances of a result. I have an example of Man City v Dortmund tonight. 24 hours ago, Bet365 odds for a man city win were 1.84. I placed an unmatched bet on Betfair at the time for odds of 2.1 (7% decrease in books), and I've just checked and its been matched. Do you think there is any value in systematically putting unmatched bets for roughly 7% of the books of current odds on potenial drifting favourites? If its kick-off, the un-matched bets cancel anyway so there isnt a huge amount to lose and youpotentially get alot of value... and thats the aim of the game right? (sorry if im not explaining this well)
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Ok, need to let off steam. I've got a system ive been working on involving a teams # shots and corners in their previous match and i've tested in out on the big european leagues (prem, serie a etc..) using football-data statistics and its produced the goods (10+% yield)... spanning over 5 seasons. I'm confident that using other smaller leagues would produce similar results and so I want to use as many leagues as possible to fasten the process.. HOWEVER I LITERALLY CANNOT FIND MATCH STATS FOR SOME LEAGUES ANYWHERE ON THE INTERNET. e.g flashscore.com - They have match stats for Austrian bundesliga but not the top dutch league? Crazy stuff! No where on the net have I found a website that can tell me how many shots Ajax made in their last game! Its crazy stuff.. So basically I was hoping someone knew a good website for finding these kinda stats for non-huge leagues... (e.g Norway, finland etc.) Sorry for the rant
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Re: football data ratings...? Also, do you think the methodology can work on other rating procedures? Perhaps ones more complicated (Over 2.5 ratings etc..)
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I'm sure many of you are familiar with football-data's rating system.. http://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf I'm just wondering what peoples opinion is of this? Narrowing down ratings to -2 to 2 give a yield of 10%, which is pretty good for any system. People might say it were a fluke or something perhaps, but it seems evident that the method used can take 'some' value off bookies and identify winners more often than not. Applying the system to multiple leagues could potentially produce 100+ points profit a year (which is amazing).. Obviously, each country has different enviroments, so the research would have to be put in to get a new equation for the resepective contries..... Any thoughts? Cheers.
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Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Your system seems to obviously work, but like you said the EP hasnt faired so well.. If you had used oddschecker and found the best price based on your B354 selection at a different bookmaker, than maybe the yield would increase by a couple of % and would make the EP yield more comfortable to look at :P
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Re: Grex's HOMES; 298 bets; +14.3% yield Your system seems to obviously work, but like you said the EP hasnt faired so well.. If you had used oddschecker and found the best price based on your B354 selection at a different bookmaker, than maybe the yield would increase by a couple of % and would make the EP yield more comfortable to look at :P
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Re: Value Bets Note: last column is yield %. At 160% at the moment. Wont last for long lol.
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Re: Value Bets I look at h2h stats, the home and away team scoring and conceding for the whole season and the number of games the respective teams have Won Drawn and Lost. I made a computer code to formulate this data into W/D/L percentages. If the corresponding odds are lower than the bookies... we have a value bet :D
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Re: Value Bets [TABLE=width: 559]
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Re: Value Bets The Levadiakos v Xanthi game got postponed so is not included in results.. All odds are bet365 (forgot to mention). [TABLE=width: 879]
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Devised a new system, looking for value bets eiher home or away.. Odds will mostly be above evens. Imaginary bank £1000, stakes at 10 each. For today: [TABLE=width: 559]
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 189 bets; +13.9% yield Hi grex, Do you not use some kind of 'rating' for the teams in question or is it literally comparison of odds on offer to the odds computed from the 'secret equation'? I've been developing a similar kind of thing to you, gaining loads of data and extracting an equation on excel... but i'm using pre-determined ratings (that i made) to get the equation.. I'm still in the process of gaining the data though.. (takes forever :P)
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 189 bets; +13.9% yield Hi grex, Do you not use some kind of 'rating' for the teams in question or is it literally comparison of odds on offer to the odds computed from the 'secret equation'? I've been developing a similar kind of thing to you, gaining loads of data and extracting an equation on excel... but i'm using pre-determined ratings (that i made) to get the equation.. I'm still in the process of gaining the data though.. (takes forever :P)
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Re: BOG-trotting with bet365 Theoretcally speaking, all your bets ar sure-wins? If your back odds on Bet365 are higher than all your lay odds on betfair, then you could stake accordingly to snap up profits of 0.5%-3% on each selection.
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Re: BOG-trotting with bet365 What time would you reckon is best? Do you reckon you would have achieved this much profit if you placed bets an hour later at 12? I'd imagine the selections would be quite different as odds change quick.. The nearer to the meeting, whereby the criteria is met, the better no? Odds would be better reflection of the race
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Re: Double my money Bet 1 - WON Bet 2: Fulham v Arsenal - Arsenal or Draw (20th min 0-1) - 1.062 - £2.63
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Will start with £2.50 every time aiming to get to £6.25 on multiple bets. Then start again. (Being equivalent to odds of 2.5... should probably change the title!) Bet 1: Rangers v Motherwell - Over 0.5 goals - 1.05 - £2.50
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Re: BOG-trotting with bet365 Great thread. What time do you look to make your selections? Also, I imagne the disparity in the stakes is due to the magnitude of difference between betfair and bet365 odds, given best 'value'...Right?
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Re: £2.5 to £25 Bet 1: Hapoel Ramat Gan v Hapoel Kfar Saba - Under 4.5 (80th min 2-1) - [email protected] - WON Bet 2: Kortrick v Standard Liege - Under 1.5 goals (87th min 1-0) - £2.63 @1.22
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Bet 1: Hapoel Ramat Gan v Hapoel Kfar Saba - Under 4.5 (80th min 2-1) - [email protected]
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Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High I tested this last night on 550 games from football-data odds history. Profit = 21 units. Pretty good? I'm not sure. Think you definately get an edge by doing this. However, it will take alot of bets to make it worthwhile.
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Re: Scotty's New Bank Builder Quick question.... How do you Lay bets of lets say 2-0 with first goal scorer being player X..? Cant find anywhere on betfair for this.. Cheers:nana
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Re: Laying correct scores challenge! Bet 95 - WON Bank - £26.20 Bet 96: Lay~ Tottenham 3 - Arsenal 3 To win £0.40 @65
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Re: Positive thinking glory hunt Bet 1: WON £0.47Bet 2: Lay 0-2, Arsenal v Man Utd £10.26 @28 Progress: 2.35%