SpiritOf67
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Posts posted by SpiritOf67
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Re: Scottish football - 29-30 September
Don't mean to nitpick mate but Gary Hooper wasn't dropped for the Benfica game, he failed a late fitness test. Will be an interesting game, its not on TV and its the first away domestic match Celtic have played with a Saturday 3pm ko since Livingston away in 2005. As a result there is a lot of enthusiasm amongst the travelling fans for this one and there will be a massive away support with Celtic having pretty much sold out their allocation at this stage, so there will be a very strong vocal backing in the away end. As noted above Motherwells joke display last night won't have endeared themselves to the Celtic fans either. Celtic have been poor so far in the SPL but we are pretty much at full strength now apart from Samaras who should be ready for Spartak Moscow away on Tuesday. Efe Ambrose made an impressive debut on Tuesday night against Raith Rovers and Ledley and Kayal both got run outs aswell. Hooper was clinical on Tuesday night and hopefully is getting back to somewhere near top form now and both Miku and Lassad who played well last weekend v Dundee both return to fitness. I think Celtic should have too much for Motherwell but I thought that against St Johnstone aswell, although I do expect Celtic to 'click' soon and bang in a good few goals against someone. Celtic have scored and conceded in every away SPL game this season and with Motherwell hoping for a reaction (and no doubt McCall will have them much more fired up for this one) and having started the SPL very well may feel they can get something both teams to score may be worth a look @ 1.86 with BetVictor.One early shout from me. Possibly more to come but this might be the lot. Motherwell v Celtic: Celtic (-0.75AH) @ 1.85 with Pinnacle (5/10) Don't normally play so early but took this one last night, not solely as a reaction to Motherwell's pathetic performance at Ibrox, but mainly down to the causes behind that sloppy show. Put simply, the Steelmen look knackered (they were on their backsides during the last 15 mins at Pittodrie on Sunday when they let a two-goal lead slip). They've had a hellishly busy start to the season, with four hard European games crammed in, and their small squad has been pushed to the limit. Stuart McCall has little choice but to pick pretty much the same starting XI every game and they look like they could do with a rest. I expect them to limp towards the international break and struggle to get much joy out of Celtic on Saturday. Now, I couldn't sit hear and write superlatives about Celtic's domestic performances but now they've had a few scares, I think they'll be focused enough to get the job done. The players - Gary Hooper in particularly - now know in no uncertain terms that failure to perform in the SPL will cost them their Champions League places and it strikes me as no coincidence that Hooper has struck five times since his embarrassing efforts against St Johnstone. Celtic will just have too much quality and energy, in my opinion, and I expect them to take the points. -
Re: League 1 > September 18th
Thanks for this.Regarding Pompey you have to fancy Swindon at over evens. I can't for the life of me see that price lasting. I said after the Walsall loss that if we can't beat Walsall at home, god knows what'll happen when we are faced with a top league one side. And here we are, faced with Swindon, who were many punters picks for promotion this year. I think they are still on track, in-spite of paolo do canio's insistence on hitting the self distruct button whenever he feels like it. We just weren't good enough at the weekend. We kept possession well, and carved out a few opportunities but Walsall hit us with a couple of stunning goals, and the familiar story of the last couple of years just took over - we always seem to be on the back foot. We play nice football, create chances, and are then quite easily disposed of. Also bare in mind that our ownership issues should have been dealt with by this game, so in theory we could be on - 5 points. I can also see us juggling the squad around further, with a striker being a priority. I would advise an early bet on Swindon at those odds, as I can only see them going one way, and it wouldn't surprise me to see us touching four by the time the game starts. At which point we may have signed an extra striker, and we may have been bought out, which could equal some value in then backing our inflated odds. -
Re: Champions League > September 19th Benfica are a better team certainly but I think having home advantage is a major leveller, they have lost a few players aswell and haven't played for 17 days. Both Bilbao and Benfica look weaker than last year but certainly based on aggregate against Man Utd, Benfica v Man Utd would be 3-3 whereas Bilbao beat Man Utd 5-3 over two legs.
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Re: Champions League > September 19th Yeah the Helsinki home tie was a bit of a struggle but you need to remember that was our first competitive game of the season, the goal we conceded was a bit unlucky but we did well to come back from that. I take your point, it was hard work at times in these games but I felt particularly against Helsinborgs at home we had another gear if we needed it and weren't ever really troubled. As for Bilbao, yeah I saw that result aswell, they are a few levels above us though as shown by their run in the EL last season. Regarding the opposition we were in the Champions side of the draw and seeded which meant yeah we did have a very favourable draw in comparison with the non champions section where we lost to Arsenal and Braga in recent years. Helsinborgs was a decent draw but generally there were no top sides and certainly it means we can hopefully consistently get to this stage, the toughest would have been Cluj and Limassol who we were lucky to avoid but teams like Anderlecht qualified through that route aswell. Your right we will need to up it performance wise but I do feel that these players have been holding something back and hopefully they will show what they are capable of.
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Re: Champions League > September 19th Celtic were terrible yesterday and as a result Benfica will probably be a popular bet now but I think they are pretty short and fancy Celtic to get something from the match. Celtic haven't started the domestic campaign well, but we have had lots of injuries and the incentive of qualifying for the CL meant that naturally the main focus was on that knowing that any points dropped in the SPL would be easy to peg back without Rangers in the league. That would explain the results against Ross County and Hibs but not yesterday where Celtic had a pretty much full strength side out bar the injured Samaras and Adam Matthews. We scored early on and looked on the way to a comfortable win before conceding a sloppy goal that unsettled us and really struggled after that. Neil Lennon said afterwards he was going to scream if he heard Champions League mentioned one more time so he obviously believes the Benfica game had been a distraction among the players. Rowan Vine got the winner yesterday and yeah he might have had an unspectacular career, I know he is ex Pompie so you will know better than anyone but you could list a long line of players who have scored against Celtic in the SPL like that, it is the SPL after all and a Hartlepool fan on one of the Celtic forums frequently brings up how poor John Daly was with them if he scores against us for Dundee Utd. While Celtic have been poor in the SPL they have done the job required in qualifying for the CL. Celtic were a bit fortunate to win 2-0 in Helsinborgs in a mixed performance but ultimately won 4-1 and 4-0 on aggregate against Helsinki and Helsinborgs so I'm not exactly sure how this constitutes ' scraping by' these opponents. Regarding the argument of Celtic's main attacking threats being Championship level players, I think thats open to debate. Anthony Stokes is injured and wouldn't be first pick anyway, Gary Hooper has been pretty poor recently but at his best is easily capable of playing in the Premiership and Southampton were very keen to sign him in this transfer window, Kris Commons is another player that could easily step up and has started the season really well. Celtic have just sold Ki Sung Yeung to Swansea, a player who was unable to regularly hold down a starting spot when everyone was fit. Time will tell there how he performs but if a guy who wasn't a regular starter is bought by a Premiership club I feel the other players mentioned are capable of playing at that level. Same would apply to Shaun Maloney who left for Wigan. As for Georgios Samaras, he is injured and is a massive loss for Celtic as in the European games he has been arguably our best outfield player and his pace and lungbursting runs have been a great outball and he scored in both the away qualifiers. Very much once the whipping boy and many will remember his spell at Man City but he is an experienced international and has been outstanding in the last year. Celtics striking options for Benfica will be Gary Hooper, Tony Watt an 18 year old who has burst onto the scene and been very impressive, Miku the new Venezuelan striker signed on loan from Getafe, has a decent pedigree but may take time to adjust and Lassad signed from Deportivo who is still a bit of an unknown. The new signings Miku in particular I have high hopes for, this guy scored in the Bernabeu and against Barca last season and Tim Vickery spoke highly of him, it might be a bit early for him to make an impact judging by yesterday but clearly the guy has ability. Even if you were right about the standard of player being Championship level thats not to say they can't make an impact. You mentioned backing Celtic under Gordan Strachan but for me there isn't much between the current side and the ones managed by him in the CL. The last time we reached the last 16 of this competition Barry Robson scored against Barcelona in the last 16 tie ( went onto play for Middlesbrough), Scott McDonald scored for Celtic at home against Man Utd & AC Milan ( went onto play for Middlesbrough), the defence was poor with Stephen McManus, Gary Caldwell and Lee Naylor regular fixtures of the side who spent their careers at Championship/ lower Premiership sides. Paul Telfer, Stephen McManus and Lee Naylor were all part of a team that got to the last 16 and kept clean sheets home and away v AC Milan in the last 16. Celtic have played Benfica twice at home in the Champions League group stages twice winning 3-0 and 1-0. In the 3-0 victory goals were scored by Kenny Miller and Stephen Pearson, both of whom again have spent large parts of their careers in the Championship so that type of player can still make an impact in the Champions League. In the other thread Jase you said there's not much point comparing league form to CL form. Yes Celtic don't have Rangers in the league now and your right you may well see poor performances like the one yesterday at Perth but all focus will be on this one and this is a young, hungry side who are wanting to test themselves on this stage. As for Benfica, I don't know too much about them. They have a squad packed with quality as you'd expect with the likes of Aimar and Oscar Cardozo but Portuguese sides don't tend to travel well, as already mentioned Celtic have beaten Benfica 3-0(2006) and 1-0(2007) and in both those groups Celtic beat Benfica to second spot to qualify. How relevant are these results? Well looking back at those Celtic sides I don't think the quality has changed that much so I'd say its worth taking into consideration. Also Benfica have lost some players in this window selling Javi Garcia to Man City and Witsel to Zenit and Saviola to Malaga and experienced centre back Luisao is due to miss the game after being suspended for assaulting a referee. These players look like big losses to Benfica. Benfica are a good side and technically they will be better and should have more of the ball but I fancy Celtic to get a result, we are always strong at home in Europe and in this section we have two very winnable games, this one v Benfica and the last at home to Spartak Moscow, we will struggle away and the two Barcelona games will most likely be about trying to give a good account of ourselves. Celtic have won twice before against Benfica at home and having not had Champions League football for four years the atmosphere should be exceptional and the fans are well up for this one. The odds for the away win look short for me so I'll be looking to back Celtic in some form.
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Re: Scottish football - 14-15 September Strong Celtic team and Miku makes his debut
Forster; Lustig, Wilson, Mulgrew, Izaguirre; Forrest, Wanyama, Brown, Commons; Hooper, Miku As posted above Celtic should have too much and there was a virus running through the St Johnstone camp during the week with training cancelled. Think Celtic will want to finish this as soon as possible to bring some key players off before Benfica on Wednesday. Celtic -1 @ 6/5 Ladbrokes -
Re: Scottish football - 14-15 September
Think your being a little bit harsh here, Celtic have been badly hampered by injuries so far this season with Brown, Ledley, Kayal, Stokes, McGeough all having faced spells on the sidelines. Wanyama came off after taking a knock against Hibs at half-time. Ultimately the main goal for Celtic this season was to get into the group stages of the CL for the prestige and money it would bring. We have achieved that and won all 4 CL qualifiers home and away against Helsinki and Helsinborgs and have added in the areas we needed to in the transfer market signing two strikers and a centre back. Its been a poor start to the league but it would have been madness to risk any players who were carrying knocks before big qualifiers. Anyway I too fancy Celtic and think tomorrow we can score a few goals. Apart from Samaras who is injured and Efe Ambrose who is not ready yet Celtic have a full pool to choose from and with new bhoys Miku Fedor and Lassad in line to make their debuts there should be a bit of a buzz within the camp and the away support. Celtic play Benfica, not Spartak on Wednesday night and I think everyone will want to go into that game with a win and good performance to be sure of their place in the starting XI. Celtic have good striking options now with Hooper & Tony Watt now being given a helping hand from Miku from Getafe and Lassad from Deportivo. At 2/5 Celtic look solid accumulator material and I think should cover the handicap also.St Johnstone v Celtic - Away Win 1.42 @ Betfair My thoughts at the start of this pretty strange SPL season was to pick and choose the Celtic games and lay into them as heavily as i could when feeling confident. After watching the first few games and especially the home match against Hibs, i'm now very worried about both the player's and manager's attitudes to League matches knowing it's pretty much won and now also the effect the bigger and much more lucrative Champions League games will have on the mindset. With this in mind and a home tie in midweek against Spartak i still feel very confident Celtic will get the job done up in Perth. Just read an article about St Johnstone missing 5 players from training on Thursday due to a virus and with the game coming early on Saturday it doesn't look good for most of that lot to recover in time. In the same article Steve Lomas pointed out his side's tough start to the season and while i agree the fixtures have been tough on them, 2 points from 5 games and a couple of beatings in the Europa League points to confidence not being too high at the the moment. Onto Celtic and as i touched on i'm very frustrated with both the resting of players (Wanyama taken of at HT against Hibs being the worst) and the general apathy shown which is only natural given the Rangers situation i suppose. One major plus is the strength in depth of this Celtic squad in particular up front where Tony Watt has be incredible and alongside Hooper, Stokes and Samaras and any two of those 4 should be enough to take care of most teams this season. So heavy bet on the away win for me with possible look at the -1 handicap closer to kick off if i like the look of the starting 11. -
Stirring ballad wins :D
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 21st July
Second mate, just pipped at the end. Great shout though, loving your write ups and tips.7.00 hay wasnt going to bet today but computer has flagged major value bet in this race skyfire 83 dazzling valentine 83 livias dream 81 skyfire and livias dream are well fancied here and are priced up around 9/2 both ......but dazzling valentines 6th place lto was equal to skyfires last run on the clock yet because he finished 6th the bookies have put him up at 25/1!!!!!! (faints ) .......very speculative bet bnut extreme value so i cant ignore ......should be 5/1 shot !!! dazzling valentine 5pts e.w 25/1 sporting bet just hope he runs his race with claimer on board -
Re: Betvictor not paying out on euro money back special. I've had my 50 quid back.
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Re: How good is Pricewise? Is buying the RP the only way to see these tips?
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Re: BBOTD - Fri 29th June 2012
Brilliant stuff aidy*Le Toreador - Newmarket 9:10* Has won over this sprint trip an incredible 10 times already, and even though it finished 15th at York last time out, it was travelling as good as any until the last furlong, and this is a much easier race, dropping from Class 3 to Class 4. It is back down to a leniant mark of 84 also. Kevin Ryan does very well on this course, he has had 12 winners from 101 runners producing a profit of £12 to level stakes. *1 Point WIN @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG* -
Re: EURO 2012 - Outright Winner & Top Goalscorer This is looking good now Aidy - even if Italy lose the final, there's not really been a stand-out Spanish player. Good luck, he deserves it.
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Re: Bet365 £50 "In Play" Free Bet - Spain v Italy - Existing Customers too!
Backed the Italy or Spain double chance market before the game and the draw in play. Nice profit and paid out.Hi tonyc, welcome to the Punters Lounge. :welcome To answer your question you would lose the liability only. I hope that nobody has arbed or dutched their free bet solely at Bet365 as according to their T&C's you will not get paid.... On which note - has anybody had their free bet refunded yet? -
Re: EURO 2012 - Outright Winner & Top Goalscorer Top Goalscorer Bets Karim Benzema @ 16-1 e/w Titanbet Benzema has had an excellent season at Real Madrid and could well be in the frame for top goalscorer at the Euros. While some sides look as if they have a lot of players who will share goals, Benzema looks to be the focal point for the French attack and should be their main goal threat. They have a reasonable group with England weakened by injuries/suspensions. Although Sweden are well-organised and Ukraine are the hosts and neither will be easy, France do look like they have the strongest XI on paper in this group. I think they could go well in this tournament and if they are to reach at least the semis then you would think Benzema would be in with a fair chance in the top scorer charts. Lukas Poldolski - 35/1 Betfair Germany are my main tip to win this competition so naturally I see the German forwards as having a good chance here. Germany are a side who share goals and the likes of Gomez, Klose, Podolski, Muller, Ozil, Schurrle are all capable of grabbing a few. Gomez is too short at 8/1 for me to get involved and although he should get the nod, Klose has a great record at tournaments and if not first choice certainly he could replace Gomez should he not be playing well or even for the 3rd group game if Germany have qualified. Going for Podolski though, he always turns up at the major tournaments, scored 3 in 9 games in qualifying, has 43 goals from 96 appearances for Germany so is well worth a punt and will want to show Arsenal fans what he is capable of. Kerzhakov - backed @ 50/1 e/w Ladbrokes Current best price available 43/1 Betfair Group A is the weakest group and Russia look the strongest team in it so the thinking is to back a Russian player as they could hopefully hit a few goals in the group stages against modest opposition and build up some momentum for the later stages. They will probably have to beat a top side in the quarter finals but Russia look pretty strong and so close to home could do well and they seem to have some support on here in the outright markets. It seems like Kerzhakov will get the nod, I assume thats why his odds have shortened as I know Premiership viewers will have been backing Pogrebenyak and Pavlyuchenko ( I would have backed him if I thought he would definitely start) but from what I've read it looks like Kerzhakov is first choice striker and started in Russias 3-0 victory over Italy recently. With that being the case, he could be in with a shout as Russia should be able to score goals against Czech Republic, Poland and Greece and possibly cause an upset in the QFs. He had a good season with Zenit and is worth a punt here. Wesley Sneijder - 95/1 Betdaq The Dutch are another side who I fancy to go far in the tournament and they are a side with plenty of goals in them. Again they are a side who will share goals and most people will be on RVP/Huntelaar for good reason but I thought I'd take a punt on Sneijder at longer odds. RVP only scored one at the last World Cup and its unclear to me whether he will play wide or through the middle, some reviews I've read have Huntelaar as the main striker and others RVP. Again like Pavlyuchenko above, if Huntelaar is confirmed as starting I'd be interested in backing him as he is a goal machine but with the uncertainty over that position I've went for Sneijder who is always a goal threat, has a great shot and will take a lot of free kicks and was up there at the last World Cup in this market. He's as short as 25/1 elsewhere, there are more likely Dutch winners of this but at the odds its worth a punt, I can see the Dutch getting to at least the semis and you'd fancy him to be on the scoresheet at some stage with his talent and 24 goals in 82 appearances is a great return. Ibrahim Affelay - 189/1 Betfair Bit of a speculative one here but I got it yesterday at 219/1 and thought it was worth a couple of quid. As above, Holland although having a really hard group have an awesome attacking line and could score a lot of goals. Noticed Affelay scored two against NI in Hollands recent warm-up game so I'm guessing he has a chance of starting. He also scored three times in qualifying. The Racing Post and other media sources have predicted Kuyt in Hollands team but a few others have suggested Affelay could start and if so he is another who could get a few goals in the tournament. Anyone in Hollands attacking line at these odds is attractive. He was injured for most of the season so will be fresh and with two goals in the recent friendly under his belt should be full of confidence. As above, RVP/Huntelaar more likely but other firms have him at 50/1 so will be interesting to see if he starts against Denmark. This market is a bit of a lottery, so many options and someone obscure/lesser known could turn up with a hat-trick so not really the best betting proposition but always a good bit of fun and looking forward to the tournament so thought I'd put these up.
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Re: EURO 2012 - Outright Winner & Top Goalscorer England Top Goalscorer - Ashley Young @7/1 BetVictor Feel this is a decent price here for Ashley Young to be Englands top scorer at the competition. With Wayne Rooney suspended for the opening two group matches and Frank Lampard confirmed as missing the tournament, there is no obvious prolific source of goals for England. Rooney is still joint favourite with Carroll in this market but I don't rate Englands chances greatly in the tournament, they have a tricky group so it could be that Rooney only plays one game in the tournament, at best if England can reach the semis - he could play three. Either way I couldn't be backing a guy who is missing the first two games. Carroll has hardly had a great season and England have a couple of options up front with Wellbeck, Defoe and it could be Carroll is made a sub when Rooney is back. There's a few question marks there but what we do know is Ashley Young will feature whether just in behind a striker or out wide. He has scored in recent friendlies against Holland and Norway and was Englands joint top goalscorer in qualifying with 3 goals and has 6 goals in 20 caps. Thought this may be a good time to place this bet incase he scores against Belgium tomorrow and he shortens in the market. I think Young looks like he could have a good tournament and is one of the few bright spots for England. At 7/1 with Rooney suspended for the opening two I think he offers decent value here.
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Re: Enhanced Prices It was in the RP yesterday. Its for new phone customers only so anyone with a PP account already wouldn't be eligible or would have to create a second account and try and get away with it.
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 31st May
Sensational tipping5.15 Brighton THE NEW BLACK to win @ 14/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) The New Black is a 3yo grey filly by Oratorio who won a selling stakes at Newbury over 7f on good ground last July (third career start) on her last start for Richard Hannon. 9th of 10 on her debut for Gay Kelleway last October over 7f on soft ground in her handicap debut off 65 she showed something more on her 3yo debut 17 days ago at Windsor over 1m (again off 65) when travelled very well for a long way and faded in the final furlong to finish 7th of 10. Dropped 2lb (63 today) with that useful comeback run under her belt, dropped to 7f, with first time visor on, back on sounder surface, well drawn in stall nr. 2 and in a very poor-looking race (she is the only winner on turf among these runners and the only winner over this distance) there is a lot on her favour and at current price it's surely worth a good bet. -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 27th
Great shout mate :clap2.55 FAKENHAM TIN POT MAN @ 8/1 PADDY POWER BOG from the stable that won this in 2010. This horse reached a mark of 110 over hurdles so if he takes to fences could be thrown in off 87. He loves hearing his hooves rattle so the Firm in the ground will be a bonus, he comes into the race off the back of a hurdles win on Firm. The trainer has a 30% strike rate at the track, rising to 38% with his chase horse, I expect a big run at 8's. -
Re: Anyone know of a website that lists tips from major media in one place? If you have a smartphone, the racing post app(free) lists tips from newspapers etc beside the race card.
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Re: Tips to keep your accounts open Obviously don't big bet enough/ win regularly enough to have ever have had any accounts closed but I do find it depressing and disheartening that winning punters would have accounts closed or bets limited because they are winning. A 'business decision', its just wrong. Anyone fancy putting up the gist of the email they received about this? Wouldn't mind reading the full reasoning out of curiosity.
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Re: Tracking a horse Sorry just saw the below thread about horse alerts.
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Alright guys. Pretty new to this racing malarky but just wanted to know the best way to trace a horse ( without going through cards all day every day). Is there like an email based system or something so you can get an email when a horse is running? Googled it but only got some Australian site, cheers.
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 20th May
Great tipping mate*Bosun Breeze - Ripon 5:10* Could be a Barron plot here, get the horse well-handicapped and then strike for gold. Has had a long break, so should be fresh and fit. Has won over 5f, and runs off 68, 4 pounds lower than when 2nd at Musselburgh last year. Take off the claimer's 5 pounds, and it is very well treated here, on a career-low mark. Was 2nd of 17 here over C+D last year off a 4 pound higher mark of 72. Big chance. *1 Point WIN @ 7/1 VC BOG*
Reading v Newcastle 29th September 2012
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Reading v Newcastle 29th September 2012 Totally agree with the above, when initially looking at the game my initial instinct was away win but risky Did not expect to see Newcastle @ 6/4 though which is value as is 4/5 with full draw cover. Reading struggled against Spurs and while like the above poster I think they will get off the mark soon, they could struggle against a very good Newcastle side. Demba Ba has started the season in fine form along with Ben Arfa and importantly Papa Cisse who had such a prolific campaign last year finally got off the mark for the season last night at Old Trafford and came very close with a terrific overhead kick.