Donkson
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Posts
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Posts posted by Donkson
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Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system What an awesome weekend that was, nice work. When you say purely statistical, are you just using results and goals scored, or are you adding playing stats in as well?
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Re: Betting for a living gl but this is probably the wrong board for this thread.
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon lol?
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Re: Super Soccer System
Although I haven't gone into creating a model like you and others have, I agree that the markets aren't efficient enough to prevent a decent ROI. Have you tried testing (and using) some filters to take out some of the less profitable bets? Like Andrew said, you might need to try filtering out a certain odds range, draws, away wins or something along those lines. Good luck anyway.Are the markets that efficient? I don't know but I think so. -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
I apologise for that spat with SayYesMoreInLife. It evidently pulled the quality of the thread down even further but considering the number of people who have been irked by him' date=' I felt it had to be done. Wishing you all the best for Wimbledon 2011 :ok[/quote'] I don't post much but I do read the forum a lot, you're 100% in the right imo. Disliked his posts immensely, anyhow, onto the best grand slam of the year! -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 209 bets; yield +16% Interesting to see how poorly this period has bee, is this consistent with previous years? I guess that's why you chose that as the cut-off.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 209 bets; yield +16% Interesting to see how poorly this period has bee, is this consistent with previous years? I guess that's why you chose that as the cut-off.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins He's not going to give that away.
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Re: MLB: May 19th picks Like the Indians, took them yesterday which didn't work.
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Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend sounds like gamblers fallacy to me
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Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI
lol what? it makes no difference how many bets you're making. Anyway, doing really well, nice work.The Kelly criterion is incredibly difficult to apply to simultaneous bets, involving multiples and all sorts of trickery. -
Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion You're calculating an edge when you're making these picks, flat betting isn't optimal. But agreed its easier. You're doing well so far, gl.For the sake of simplicity? What would you suggest? -
Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield I'm finally able to read the thread again, well gl for next season. Those over 3.5s in particular are looking good.
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop); 363 bets; +6% yield I'm finally able to read the thread again, well gl for next season. Those over 3.5s in particular are looking good.
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Re: 'Favourites' at stupid odds: 11 bets, 23% ROI Is there a reason why you're flat betting?
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Re: Weightings & Optimization Try to look at the correlation with each stat (r^2 value). You obviously want the stats with higher correlation to have more weight. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination lol at 25% being attainable long-term.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 209 bets; yield +16% Awesome work. Interesting how such a simple system has performed so well.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites; 209 bets; yield +16% Awesome work. Interesting how such a simple system has performed so well.
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Re: MLB: April 6th 2011 Picks whats up with the red sox?
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Re: No icons anywhere fixed.
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Re: Problem opening existing thread Bit of a bump, but I still can't open any Grex threads.
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Hi, not sure if I'm the only one with the problem, but I can't see anything like the 'go to first new post' link etc. Also missing a whole bunch of other links and stuff. Sorry if this has been brought up somewhere, but I haven't seen anything about this problem.
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Re: I was Minding If.. You can't beat roulette... Why are people fascinated with this game?
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Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Talk about see-saw.. :notworthy
Frijjbest's (best?) system
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system what?