Donkson
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Posts
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Posts posted by Donkson
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 146 bets; +19% yield Slightly off-topic I know but I've been working on my own model for totals, and found a very similar result to what you have, overs work well, unders don't. It's really annoying not being able to decipher the reason why, obviously England is a somewhat high-scoring country but not ridiculously so, logic would say you can still turn a profit betting unders somehow.
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 146 bets; +19% yield Slightly off-topic I know but I've been working on my own model for totals, and found a very similar result to what you have, overs work well, unders don't. It's really annoying not being able to decipher the reason why, obviously England is a somewhat high-scoring country but not ridiculously so, logic would say you can still turn a profit betting unders somehow.
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Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 29-31 Why do you say the odds are fair but then make the selection? (talking about the utd game)
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Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 29-31 Can't believe the drifting price on Blackburn is now tempting me.
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Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 29-31
This and the fact that Arsenal haven't won away since April when they beat Blackpool.I simply don’t know what Chelsea did to deserve to be such a strong favorites against Arsenal. Maybe it is due to their better record against Arsenal, since the Blues have won 6 out of the last 10 games between these two sides, while Arsenal managed only 3 wins, while 1 game ended in a draw. -
Re: Champions League > Wednesday 19th October No EPL team will be that short this year. They're 65 at Betfair.
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Re: Clive Keeling "in play profit generator"
If Team A scores a goal first, back team A.simple indicators that if noticed a punter can make a killing during a match on betfair. -
Re: WC 2014 Qualifying (Asia) > 6-7 September lol where did you pull those odds from?
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Depends on the book really.
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ah now it's working, weird, thanks for your help anyway.
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Yeah they're enabled lol.
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Yeah I'm on 07, but he mentions on the site that you should be able to convert any of the sheets and they will work, odd.
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Re: Binary Betting
First of all this market would never happen. If you have a market at 2.50 - 3.40 - 2.90 you have 3 fairly even outcomes to choose from, if you choose them randomly you'll hit 30ish percent. If the AH market was for the same game you might have Team 1 -0.5 @ 2.15 and Team 2 +0.5 @ 1.80, and choosing randomly should have you around 50%. So yes you are missing something.Not sure how you work that out Surely you would pick more winners at 1.85 in a two outcome market than in a three outcome one? 1.85 v 1.85 1.85 v 3.25 v 4.00 Or am I missing something? -
Re: Binary Betting You'll be backing more winners than if you bet on the 1X2 markets that's for sure, therefore your variance will be smaller. I'm not really sure about the 'value' part of your question. I don't think the market matters when determining where you will find value. If you have 10% edge in a market it doesn't matter what the market is, or the price you're getting it on, it's still 10% value. But as I mentioned earlier, if the variance is smaller in a handicap market, then yes that should be your choice.
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. None of the macros work on my sheets.
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Re: everyone look my system.. Shylock nails it. The system is bad, nothing else to it.
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Re: How to Weight Superiority That's not what he was asking (although yes that explains it), if you want to measure it absolutely, you'll have to go back and do some analysis of the data yourself. I would doubt anyone has done the work and published it anywhere. All I can help you with is that you can find those numbers in the result spreadsheets at http://www.football-data.co.uk/
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I don't know what's funnier, they fact that they actually do it in the first place, or the fact that they expect to get a response.
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Re: arb betting questions.. You tend to need a very large BR, because the opportunities aren't that frequent, and the edges are generally pretty small.
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Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Pinnacle is widely regarded as the sharpest book.
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Re: All in the value for footy
So you just make blind statements with no reasoning at all, and claim that you'll be proven correct?The evidence will be in the pudding:) -
Re: All in the value for footy
Cool evidence.It wont be profitable longer term. There is no underlying logic in your criteria. You will end in tears. -
Re: Head-to Head Meetings You might have to wait until the weekend, Pinnacle doesn't have them yet either.
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Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Thankfully he got banned, but I still can't understand what the hell he's going on about.
England > FA Cup 3rd round > Fri 6/1- Mon 9/1
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: England > FA Cup 3rd round > Fri 6/1- Mon 9/1 Blackburn stands out to me.