HastGill1
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Posts posted by HastGill1
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Re: AS Monaco v Arsenal > Tuesday March 17th
Monaco were a total shambles, Arsenal paid the price for their terrible display in the first leg. Hardly the defensive masterclass I expected from Monaco, think Arsenal U18's could have given them a game tonight. Small loss on the game.Have to agree, think Monaco will be very happy to sit back and soak up the pressure hitting Arsenal on the break. The odds are more than high enough for me to risk a bet on the unders, another factor in the favour of unders is the apparent poor state of the Monaco pitch which Wenger has been moaning about already. People will be quick to point out that Arsenal have plenty of goals in them and have to push but the situation was the same in the first leg, difference being this time that Monaco know what they need to do and they will be confident about seeing the job through in their own ground where they were rock solid in the group stages. Toulalan was injured at the weekend but expect him to return, Berbs was rested, they still have injuries but enough cover. Under 2.5 Goals - 1.94 - betfair - 2 Points WIN Also having a bet on Monaco DNB. Not saying the game will follow the pattern of the first entirely but Arsenal have to attack Monaco - like they did in the first game - and Monaco are more than capable of hitting them on the break. I wouldn't have Monaco's DNB odds much higher than 1.9 so I think there is plenty of value in the price. Arsenal have changed tactics in a couple of games this season when playing better sides which really suited them - defending in numbers and closing space in the key defensive areas then breaking quickly - but they have to attack in this game and that is likely to open them up to the usual problems. A high defensive line should play right into Monaco's hands as in the first leg, already mentioned the pitch and I think Monaco are being underrated here. Monaco DNB - 2.36 - betfair - 2 Points LOSS -
Re: AS Monaco v Arsenal > Tuesday March 17th
Please don't post this trash again or a temp ban will be in order.are u really all dumb english people? even Olympique Lyon youngster and Olympique Marseille will trash between 16 and 18 teams of your so overrated BPL all europa puke on your english teams but english ego is really big and never see the truth! so ASM -1 @ 6 local book space space space gonna laugh with mertesaker tonight :lol and your two fullback yes all our youngster are faster and more skilled than your so overrated oxlade, walcoot and so on. haters gonna hate tonight :) -
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday March 17th Slightly surprised Atletico's odds keep rising, to qualify now up to 2.5 on betfair. I must be out of my mind as I'm already facing a big loss on Atletico failing to qualify but I can't resist the odds available. Leverkusen have looked very good in the Bundesliga recently but this is still a big learning curve, score 1 goal and they are as good as through but with Atletico getting that goal is not always that easy, and I'm certain they will be far better than they were in the first game. He who dares.. Atletico to Qualify - 2.5 - betfair - 5 Points
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Re: AS Monaco v Arsenal > Tuesday March 17th People are here for opinion on the game guys, keep on topic please.
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday March 17th Godin is a big miss in both penalty areas..Gimenez and Miranda doesn't look such a solid partnership, Miranda needs to rediscover his form from a year ago.
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Re: AS Monaco v Arsenal > Tuesday March 17th
Have to agree, think Monaco will be very happy to sit back and soak up the pressure hitting Arsenal on the break. The odds are more than high enough for me to risk a bet on the unders, another factor in the favour of unders is the apparent poor state of the Monaco pitch which Wenger has been moaning about already. People will be quick to point out that Arsenal have plenty of goals in them and have to push but the situation was the same in the first leg, difference being this time that Monaco know what they need to do and they will be confident about seeing the job through in their own ground where they were rock solid in the group stages. Toulalan was injured at the weekend but expect him to return, Berbs was rested, they still have injuries but enough cover. Under 2.5 Goals - 1.94 - betfair - 2 Points Also having a bet on Monaco DNB. Not saying the game will follow the pattern of the first entirely but Arsenal have to attack Monaco - like they did in the first game - and Monaco are more than capable of hitting them on the break. I wouldn't have Monaco's DNB odds much higher than 1.9 so I think there is plenty of value in the price. Arsenal have changed tactics in a couple of games this season when playing better sides which really suited them - defending in numbers and closing space in the key defensive areas then breaking quickly - but they have to attack in this game and that is likely to open them up to the usual problems. A high defensive line should play right into Monaco's hands as in the first leg, already mentioned the pitch and I think Monaco are being underrated here. Monaco DNB - 2.36 - betfair - 2 PointsI see no point in backing overs as Monaco will park the bus and hope for a 0-0 or 1-0 loss. They have conceded only ONE goal in their last 12 home matches and will be very confident defending their lead. Also 81% of Monaco's matches this season have ended under 2.5 goals' date= 86% in their home matches . -
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday March 17th Lost money on Atletico DNB in the first game. They got their game plan totally wrong in the first leg - Simeone admitted it - but they are one of the best home sides in Europe and they will be well up for this with a title challenge now out of the question. Koke is back which makes a big difference to their attacking game. Simeone and Mandzukic have reportedly had a falling out which has led to him being on the bench in the last couple of games (was suspended at the weekend), I can't imagine he won't play in this one. Leverkusen will press Atletico high up the pitch from the start, they will need Mandzukic there to hold the ball up, Torres can't do that and doesn't have much of a goal threat in him currently after a strong start. Despite playing so well in the first leg there is only 1 goal in it and it should be level after Torres had a perfectly good - if slightly odd - goal disallowed. The Calderon will be at fever pitch for this one, should be a good game. I had a large single on Atletico to qualify before the first leg - looking somewhat misadvised currently! - so I won't be betting on the game but 2.25 for Atletico to qualify looks pretty big to me. Atletico very rarely don't turn up at home despite their problems away.
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Re: Sunderland v Aston Villa > Saturday March 14th What is going on at Sunderland? Shambles..
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Re: Arsenal v West Ham > Saturday March 14th Had a decent sized single on Arsenal tomorrow. The win against United was decent and will have raised morale in the group, the injury problems continue with Ox now out but they have plenty of options in forward areas so shouldn't be much of an issue, imagine Walcott is itching for a start. They have now won their last 7 at home in the league. West Ham are decimated by injuries and in poor form. Carroll (inj), Cole (inj), Valencia (inj), Reid (inj), Jenkinson (ineligible), Topkins (inj). Song is doubtful and they are down to one fit centre back. Arsenal have won the last 8 games against West Ham in the league, they never seem to struggle against them. West Ham receive very few batterings so I wouldn't take the handicap but I think the single price is slightly higher than I would have it so happy to take them. Arsenal - 1.44 - totesport - 8 Points
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th Some good analysis in here. Chelsea were outfought and outclassed as Atletico last year, best team won.
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th
I have a couple of comments. Firstly I wouldn't overestimate the effect of Ibra, in 7 CL games against Mourinho he has 0 goals and 0 assists, he was taken off early in 3 of those games. The defensive problems Chelsea had in the first leg were not helped by playing an inexperienced defender in front of the back 4, with Matic back and playing alongside Ramieres (probably) they should have a lot more protection. I think you are perhaps being a bit harsh on Cahill whose form in recent games has been much better, him and Terry are well suited to play against Ibra. There is no argument that the form of Fabregas and Oscar has dropped, the stats tell us as much. Both are making less assists, crosses and Oscar isn't scoring goals - both are suffering from fatigue, Mourinho has said similar. This is certainly not helping Costa as much of the time he is feeding off scraps, I don't really feel Costa's form has been that bad since the ban but the service he is getting hasn't been that good, he needs a good performance in the CL as there hasn't been one this season. As much as you can praise David Luiz for his performance, it was his poor marking that allowed Chelsea to score - a recurring theme when he is asked to defend. He does look impressive when he is spraying the ball around and can play on the front foot as he did in the first leg, but his defensive awareness is crap. It will be interesting to see how he performs when his side are on the back foot, I doubt if he will be playing in front of the back 4 tonight now they have players back? Again I don't think home and away form has been considered enough and it is the major factor in the game, Chelsea are as poor away in the CL as PSG are. PSG's record in England is played 5 won 0 drawn 2 lost 3, scored 0 conceded 5. Their away performances this season have been just as poor. The stats speak for themselves at this stage of the competition - 2013/14 100% of the sides playing at home in the second leg went through, 2012/13 75%, 2011/12 75%. This is weighted by the established powerhouses being at home in the second leg but is a fair guide. I would be staggered if PSG are as good in this leg as they were in the first, the ref will certainly not be as lenient. I can see set pieces being a big factor probably at both ends. I will be watching the game and if it is tight 30 minutes in I will have a play on 'next goal scored - header' which is generally 4.5-5.0 on bet365. Both goals in the first leg were headers and with Chelsea struggling for creativity and PSG being strong in the air too I can see this being the main route to goal again.I think Chelsea is highly over-estimated. I am pretty sure that PSG will score against this vulnerable Chelsea, and very likely, at least two goals. And Chelsea, may not even score, or, at most one goal. Here is my detailed preview: https://analysisandpreview.wordpress.com/ -
Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th
If it remains 11 v 11 I doubt either side will run away with it. PSG showed in the first leg that they are unlikely to be dominated physically, I thought the ref was very lenient as Hazard particularly was getting kicked all over the place - don't expect that to be the same here. Think Mourinho might play Ramieres in midfield as it doesn't look like the kind of game Oscar does well in and his performances have been poor lately, Fabregas will probably be pushed further forward with Hazard and Willian either side. Expect a physical game with Matic and Ramieres locking horns with David Luiz (likely to be def midfielder again), Matuidi (or Motta) and the energetic Veratti - who on another day would have been sent off in the first game. Will be interesting to see how Mourinho approaches it, last year they had to attack as they were two goals down, the first game was a decent result but doesn't mean they can sit back and look to counter attack.3-0 is pretty crazy. I will expect Chelsea to shut up shop if they managed to score 2 and have yet to concede. -
Re: FC Bayern München v Shakhtar Donetsk > Wednesday March 11th Shakhtar are from Ukraine not Russia. I watched the first leg and Bayern should have won, although after the sending off they were pretty happy to take the 0-0. You would expect Bayern to finish them off fairly comfortably but the odds don't really reflect the quality difference, looking at the prices you would think they are playing against a second division side.
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Re: Chelsea v Paris Saint-Germain > Wednesday March 11th
Its an interesting one and I can see where you are coming from. Think you are overlooking the major factor in the game, which is that Chelsea away and Chelsea home are totally different sides, and PSG home and PSG away are totally different sides. One factor is that Chelsea have a full week to prepare for the game, they looked knackered the other night and Upton Park is generally a difficult game for the big boys particularly after the cup final a few days prior, Matic was obviously missed as Terry was exposed to the pace of the forwards without the best DM in the league in front of him they looked vulnerable. PSG had a league game on Sat. The away result was pretty good for Chelsea as PSG are very much stronger at home, we saw that last year when they won the home leg 3-1 but still went out, I would debate that this side isn't looking much stronger than that one. The first leg was a typical Mourinho Europe away game, cautious and defensive. Their away results haven't generally been very good 2 wins in the last 8 games, looking at just knockout games last season they didn't win one - Galatasaray drew 1-1 (home leg won 2-0), PSG lost 3-1 (home leg won 2-0), Atletico drew 0-0 (home leg lost 3-1). I don't class PSG as a top level side as they can't get past anyone decent over two legs and their away form is poor, even this season they only won 1 of 3 with an 87th minute goal against APOEL, drawing with an average Ajax side 1-1 and losing to Barca 3-1. Mourinho is a very clever coach and his record in knockout comps is very good. It takes a very good side to beat Chelsea at home, I don't think PSG are good enough at the back and still have a few players missing.Chelsea-PSG PSG +0.5 @ evens and a small put on 1:2 Correct Score @ 15 both with bet365 Ok,i will be the first to say that i was very disappointed with Chelsea last night.They looked toothless to me upfront,unorganized at the back and before Hazard opened the score WH had a few good chances to score which were wasted by Sakho.If they play like this on Wednesday they will get hammered.'The Blues'were totally outplayed in Paris in the reversed fixture.They were defending deeply in their own half with PSG attacking and only pure luck saved their as*es.I can't see something different this time.Thy will no doubt park the bus,trying not to lose again,relying only on counter-attacks.Mourinho has an impressive record in CL,as well as at home but it can't last any longer.PSG are far superior in my eyes,playing attractive and passing game and if Chelsea leave so much open spaces at the back they will no doubt be punished.1.85 doesn't interest me at all and i think the value is certainly on the AW.The only difference will be that there will be more Uk fans that French one's and it is a funny thing that Moruinho doesn't give a rat's ass about attacking as far as they don't concede.Chelsea might be the top side in Uk but when it comes to CL games i think they are not ready yet and it is very possible to remain that way while Mourinho is in charge.PSG were the better side in the 1st leg agains Chelsea,yesterday they won 2:0 against Monaco eliminating them,they are still in the fight for the league title so nothing suggests Chelsea should be that heavy favourites at 'Stamford Bridge'. -
Re: Queens Park Rangers v Tottenham Hotspur > Saturday March 7th
Fantastic. Why?Spurs for the away win for me -
Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Tuesday March 3rd
Please start providing some reasoning with your posts.Southhampton will win outright.this game will end in 2-1. -
Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Tuesday March 3rd
Not that key in recent games under Pardew' date=' as they haven't featured much[/quote'] Jedinak reported back from Asian Cup with an injury so only returned at the weekend, he is their joint leading scorer so fair to say he is a key player. He certainly plays when fit. Murray scored in the last 2 games and would be starting if avilable. -
Re: Southampton v Crystal Palace > Tuesday March 3rd Murray and Jedinak both suspended for Palace, both key players from a defensive and attacking viewpoint.
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Re: Liverpool - Manchester City > Sunday March 1st Think part of the problem is their transfer policy. When you sign players like Silva, Yaya and Aguero you are making a real statement, now they are signing players like Bony, Mangela and Fernando. These are still being signed for big money but aren't of the required standard to make an impact at the very top levels of the game - they are decent players but not Champions League semi-final decent. They are mainly filler players, contrast those signings with Fabregas and Costa which gave everyone at Chelsea a massive boost before a ball had been kicked. Yesterday felt like a big moment in the title race, if Chelsea win their game in hand 8 points looks like a big lead at this stage of the season.
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Re: Liverpool - Manchester City > Sunday March 1st
The Le Tiss quote just came to mind when I was thinking about the limited time between games. It has nothing to do with fitness, every EPL player is very fit they have to be, its about recovery time. Point being only having a couple of days between games is not necessarily a big problem imo. Liverpool certainly don't look to be struggling to me yet.I don't see what relevance the views on fitness of Matt Le Tissier (someone who was unfit and playing for a bottom-five club twenty years ago) have on a top-of-the-table clash in 2015? Surely you'd struggle to find someone with a more irrelevant opinion on fitness than that? -
Re: Bundesliga > February 27th - March 1st Schalke were utter pony, bet looked good for 78mins though then the floodgates opened..should have been at least 6-0 to be honest.
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Re: Bundesliga > February 27th - March 1st
I've had a couple of bets on Schalke. I don't think they are a particuarly good side currently but Di Matteo has got them organised defensively which they haven't been in previous seasons and Dortmund are a shadow of the team they were a couple of seasons ago. The odds don't reflect the sides accurately imo and Dortmund looked so poor defensively midweek there is no way they should be this price, watched Dortmund struggle at home plenty of times this season. Schalke +1.0AH - 2.025 - bet365 - 3 Points Schalke DNB - 5.0 - bet365 - 2 PointsHmm...Does anyone feel that Dortmund odds are too low while Schalke odds are too high? Dortmund are slowly improving while Schalke in a not-so-good form and their away form is also quite poor. Hmm...Makes me suspicious whether is it an obvious win for Dortmund or... -
Re: Liverpool - Manchester City > Sunday March 1st
I agree, performance does go down if they play too often but I don't really see it as a massive disadvantage. Sterling had a decent break over Christmas and Sturridge needs the minutes to get back up to speed, won't be an issue for the defenders and Henderson, Markovic, Coutinho were rested. They will be well up for this, there is no way I would back City in this game against such a good home side. If I had to pick I would go for a draw, City generally don't beat the top sides away. Remember they asked Matt Le Tissier on Soccer Saturday recently if the tough winter schedule was difficult in England when the games every few days he said 'no I loved it you didn't have to train, just turn up and play!' Don't think too much prep is needed for this game they know each other well and although recovery time isn't ideal the players have the experience of a very similar programme over Christmas. It might be a bigger factor than I think, just my opinion.Your analysis is accurate, however Coutinho, Henderson will be raring to go, Lallana had some 40 Minutes only. Liverpool players are young and Ibe, Sterling, Can, Moreno and even Sturridge should not need 4 days to recover. Rodgers has also given rest these last few months to players like Lallana, Sterling, Can sometimes due to injuries but at times to preserve them. Mental aspect can play a part with the Barca defeat of City on home turf and their uphill imminent battle at the Nou Camp. City could get a point in my view not all three. Kompany and Demichelis could suffer with the infernal trio Sturrige, Coutinho, Sterling and I would back a Liverpool win if I had to choose. -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th Bloody hell, what a bloodbath..:lol Thats me done with Arsenal.
Atlético de Madrid v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday March 17th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday March 17th
Was in bits by penalties :\ I had far too much on Atletico qualifying, crazy stuff. Think they deserved it though, Leverkusen offered very little as an attacking unit although they defended well. Think the better side went through.