Carlisle Blue
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Posts posted by Carlisle Blue
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A busy RL afternoon but quiet on the punting front.
Yesterday's result was decided at the toss for Middx and they having put up a reasonable score were unlucky to run into Duckworth Lewis and a wet ball. I will be looking to oppose Hants in their next RL match which I believe is next week away at Surrey.
The last thing Middx will have wanted after last nights match in clammy conditions is a 2 hour journey down to Bristol for a match against Gloucester the following day. But I personally couldn't back either side with any conviction. Glos have lost both their games in this competition against two of the teams who you would think will probably end up in the lower half of the southern league and only putting up 260 on Somerset's Tonka town sized pitch isn't great and Middlesex are on the road after a tiring match. The side bet I would be interested in if I get it is an over on the 4's or boundaries (pref 4's) . Glos desperately need a win here and will have to play aggressively if they bat first knowing the potential of the Middx bat. The pitch at Bristol is a decent sized pitch ripe for shot making and with Middx bowlers no doubt stiff from bowling last night and Glos a bit powder puff with the ball I can see plenty of balls going over the rope.Lancashire travel to Northants where it is known to offer max value to spinners and Lancs have two of the best in this competition, but Lancs have travelled without Martin Guptill. I don't think the loss of their star overseas player has been factored into the Lancs odds on quote yet to be honest. The loss of Richard Levi for Northants evens things up a bit. Levi gone also means there will be more food at the break for both sides ;). All in all leaving this one alone.
With Notts v Warwickshire if you fancy a side I would suggest waiting for the toss result. The pitch at Trent Bridge is obviously in excellent nick. Reckon it's highly likely you could back the team batting first before the match starts and then back the other team at the break and make a profit either way. Or if you fancy the bowling team wait for the break and probably a bigger price.
Over at the Oval I want to be with Surrey against Somerset but they haven't convinced me as a reliable option this season so leaving this too.
So my only bet today is over at Cardiff where it is expected to be cloudy but dry all day. I'm all over Sussex to bt Glamorgan. Glamorgan have won their only RL match against Gloucester, but that was the day after Glos played a RL match and hence were a bit worn and Glamorgan were fresh and at home. No Dale Steyn for Glamorgan either in this format! Sussex lost their first RL match against Essex where they ran into a Jesse Ryder ton. Ryder is hit or miss on that day he was a hit. But Sussex have a better quality and depth in batting and bowling than Glamorgan. Whilst this isn't the 20/20 area I'm also keen on the overs on the 6's in tonight's Kent v Hampshire game. Kent's pitch is pretty small and when you have have Afridi, Sammy, Stevens, Billings, Blake, Northeast on show on a small pitch it says 6's to me. Doubling up this and Sussex.
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The early match today at Middlesex's training ground at Radlett looks potentially interesting for Middlesex to do the treble over Hampshire having beaten them recently in the County Championship and 20/20 matches. But I would suggest waiting for the toss result!
Whoever wins the toss I expect them to select to bowl for two reasons. Firstly rain is forecast later this afternoon for the Radlett area and also because having seen a clip on the Middx website of the pitch at Radlett it looks greener than a water melon. This in addition to the news that Hampshire are missing James Vince and his replacement Alsop, Middx seem to have an awful lot in their favour. They have named a full strength team including McCullum and Morgan. Going to wait for the toss result before getting seriously involved.
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Bit of Royal London team news. Firstly an about turn for the Bristol Post with news that Michael Klinger will be back for the match. However doing UK to Aus and back within a week must take a lot of you I'd think. And additionally Stuart Broad will be turning out for Notts v Surrey.
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The Bristol Post are reporting that Michael Klinger will not be back for the semi final. This makes Yorkshire heavier favourites than the 1/2 currently available with Corals imo. If you are doing short price accas and can wait a week for the result Yorkshire are a good option. Yorkshire will likely be without Plunkett and Rashid but will have Lyth, Ballance, Bairstow and Lees available.
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Big toss to win in an hour. The result could likely depend on it. It is such a shame that the pinnacle of our T20 tournament is being decided in such underwhelming circumstances with low totals. Anyway think on a poor pitch that Lancashire's numerous spin options and game changers lower down the order has them in the box seat. Northants of course have Afridi, and because of his spin attack and batting potential to take a game away I am actually afraid ;)
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I'm on Lancashire tomorrow to win and taking Ladbrokes 10/3. The key differential in T20 is to not only being able to bat deep but also have game finishers. In the first game Lancashire have Jos Butler and James Faulkner. Hants have got zip. Get past the top 3 and its start the car. Lancs would then face the winner of Warwickshire v Northants. I do think Northants can get past Warwickshire, they bat deep and do have quality lower down the order. But I just think Lancashire have a little bit more! Fancy both teams to score the most 6's (Lancashire and Northants) in the semis too.
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Absolutely gutted for Kent. You could say that they were unlucky but Kent should have won and if their openers hadn't have put the team under pressure very early they would have done. They will be back next year but wouldn't be surprised if they need to look to an international wicki / batsman to cover Billings who I am sure will be more involved in the England set up. One other thing I did want to mention from one of the games earlier this week from the Notts v Durham game I found out the ECC allowed Hales and Taylor to play for Notts but made a late call not allowing Stokes to play for Durham and Ben who expected to play spent the day in the clubhouse. Very poor show that by the ECC in my opinion who should have been more even handed. Anyway obviously very pleased with the Yorkshire result. They are now favourites but probably only until the result of the Notts v Surrey match is known. Yorkshire should make now make the final especially at Klinger flies back home to Australia today to deal with family issues and it isn't certain if his wife will allow him to fly back a week later to platy for Glos in the semi final a week on Sunday. Can't see Glos being competitive enough without Klinger!
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Good calls in the first two QFs Moz. Hope you get the Essex one wrong though lol ;). Come on the Kent Spitfires!
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Weather forecast was for the rain to have stopped some time ago in Bristol, can only think they are having trouble clearing the water. Personally think the longer the delay the more it favours Hampshire.
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I agree Howzat that Notts are there to be shot at and as mentioned above they do have a bit of a history of losing knockout matches just before the final. The only thing re their bowling attack is that I believe Tahir is due back at some point but I am not too sure when. South Africa play their last ODI match v NZ today so it is feasible he could be back for the semi.
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Durham threw the game away last night having been in the box seat so the Durham position was easy to get out of as past their openers their batting is fragile. Considering the potential home semi final draw against either Glos or Hants I was a little surprised that Yorkshire haven't shortened up from the 6/1 and that Kent / Surrey haven't drifted a bit having to play Notts. Todays game whilst being in overcast shouldn't be rain affected. I am looking around for the best under option on the maximums. Bristol has long boundaries and the conditions aren't too great. Not many books have the option. Taking Corals under 8.5.
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Books looks like they don't quite know how to price up this game now. Saw Paddy initially had Durham at 8/13 and other had Notts at 2/7 should be fun to watch. You would think Notts will post 150 which should mean Durham will be chasing around 190.
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The draw has been done. The winner of Notts v Durham have to travel to the winner of Kent v Surrey. Winner of Glos v Hampshire is on the road to winner of Yorkshire v Essex. Good home draw for Yorkshire if they get through.
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Think the rain will be clear by about 7.30pm. Royal London rules state that in the knockouts both teams have to bowl a minimum of 20 overs to constitute a result. There is reason to think that if the rain has cleared by c 7.30pm with an intended finish time tonight of 9.45pm it would be possible for the umpires to call it a 20 - 24 overs a side game. If that is the case it is possible that Notts could get very unlucky here. Obviously it would be a Duckworth Lewis adjusted target which would probably still be a tough chase. But the outfield will still be wet and wet balls don't do as much.
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Fair to say Durham didn't make the best of the overhead conditions but saying that the pitch looks a belter. Considering that and the fact rain is expected to last for a few hours think quotes of Notts at 2/9 are somewhat skinny.
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Yep I agree Howzat. Durham have won the toss and bowl. Going to get some on Durham and see how they go before the expected rain arrives.
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Live picture from Trent Bridge attached! Link not working unfortunately but available at Nottinghamshire CCC Twitter. Looks very dark and overcast. It should clear up a bit later. Definite advantage in winning the toss
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65% chance of rain interupting the first innings today at Nottingham. Going to sit on my hands and see who wins the toss I think.
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Taylor has done brilliantly for Notts recently and is there on merit. Think they have changed the way the semi opponents are done. Thought it was done via the Group Table positions where team left top ranked played bottom ranked etc. Looks like they are now doing a draw at 5.30pm tonight to work it out. Seems rather unfair to me that. Kent for example who finished bottom could get a home tie in the next round against Notts who finished top. Where's the incentive to get the best record?
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Yorkshire squad for the Essex match has gone up on Twitter: Bairstow, Ballance, Bresnan, Brooks, Carver, Fisher, Hodd, Leaning, Lees,Lyth,Patterson,Plunkett,Pyrah,Rashid,Rhodes. And because Finch didn't feature in the group stages he is ineligible for the knockouts apparently. I think the above squad is good enough to win on Thursday in a full 50 over match. If the game was rain affected it could be a problem.
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I do like Blake too Moz he almost won that match against Lancashire on his own in this competition a few weekends ago but he could do with a little bit more consistency. I just think if Billings is missing it will mean that Northeast and Stevens won't be able to play with the freedom that they would like to knowing that there is a lot of responsibility on their shoulders. Fabian Cowdrey is an ok "tip and runner" and is a good foil who will hang around to whichever of the main batsman are still at the crease. But with games involving Kent and Yorkshire on Thursday I would suggest keeping a very close eye on their Twitter feed before parting with any cash. I hope you are right with Glos as it would make Yorkshire's passage easier. But if not James Vince has been called up to the England squad which makes Hants batting line up look quite thread bare if he doesn't play. Just a short note on the England call ups I was really pleased for Billings but was amazed that Jonny Bairstow was dropped completely for him having won the 1 day series v NZ for England. Where is the loyalty lol??
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Billings has just been called up to the England squad for t20 and ODI. This now makes Kent a wait and see. Billings not playing would create a massive hole behind the sticks and with the bat. No billings no bettings ;) Interestingly they are also resting Root. I would take that as red that he won't be playing for Yorkshire either. Reckon they have told him to go on holiday for a month before going to the UAE and South Africa. It won't make any difference to Yorkshire chances they have an abundance of options with Gale, Lyth, Ballance, Lees, Finch, Bairstow
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I have been trying to rationalise what I reckon is going to happen in this forthcoming knockout phase and second guess the impact on teams of losing players to England's one day squad. As we are coming to towards the end of the summer the weather will no doubt play a part but at the moment I have the final being between Yorkshire and Kent. I could very quickly crash and burn with that prediction. But at the moment I reckon Notts will beat Durham, Hampshire will beat Glos, Kent will beat Surrey and Yorkshire will beat Essex. Past that Kent will have to go on the road to Nottingham. Notts have lost only 1 one day game at home this season, which was to Kent, but I reckon they will be without their talisman Alex Hales for that match and I reckon Broad will be rested unless they make the final. In addition Notts do have this habit of bottling it just before getting to a finals day. I don't think Kent will lose anyone to the England set up although I would personally have Billings in the England team over both Butler and Bairstow. So in the other semi it would be Yorkshire v Hampshire. I reckon Yorkshire will have Lyth, Bairstow (England will go Butler even though Bairstow saved them v the Kiwis) and Finch to integrate into their one day squad which will be too much quality for Hampshire imo. Whilst Kent were good value earlier in the competition at 16/1 at the moment I cannot see anything apart from a Yorkshire win. The last England match v Australia is on the 13th September, the London 1 day final at Lords is on the 18th September. If Yorkshire can get past Essex and potentially Hampshire they would then be able to welcome Root and Rashid into the team too. Take the 6/1 on Yorkshire with Bet365, Boylesports and Sportingbet
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Totally agree Moz but keeping an eye on the weather for the next few days. The match tomorrow kicks off at 2pm and according to the BBC weather rain is due in Nottingham between 3pm-7pm. Now even in a heavily shortened match I would still heavily favour Notts as they have much better depth of firepower than Durham. But I would much prefer to see Notts chasing with the potential for a Duckworth Lewis effected match.
Royal London One Day Cup
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Sussex Bowlers - Ajmal Shahzad and George Garton hang your heads in shame. Economy rates of 7.67 and 8.12 respectively in this 50 over format isn't good enough especially against a batting attack that has had to retire injured their best batsmen.