Evenstephen
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Posts posted by Evenstephen
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Re: 2,000 Guineas Having looked at the racecard I think anyone expecting easy money on Frankel today is going to be a bit of a mug. Over the years I've seen a few Henry Cecil odds-on good things in Classics turn out not to be as good as people first thought. Frankel beat Roderic O'Connor by 2.25 lengths last year in the Dewhust Stakes at Newmarket (Saamidd 15 lengths further back). On his seasonal debut a fortnight ago he comfortably beat Excelebration (rated 109 and 25/1) by 4 lengths but was heavily backed at 1/4f to do so. Pathfork & Fury are unknown quantites to me and from a value perspective I think 4/7 is far too short. This race is going to be run at a very quick pace with a reasonably big field and the favourite might not get his own way. Frankel is a good horse though and by 3-15 we'll probably know by then how good he really is. :cheers
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Re: Kempton 14th July (eve) 9-20 - Hayek 1pt each way 7/1 Ladbrokes The form line doesn't look special but Willie Jarvis may have found a good opportunity tonight. Last beaten 14 lengths by Side Glance (Won a decent handicap at Ascot recently) in a race which has produced 10 winners since then and then beaten 12 lengths by Meezaan (ran respectably in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot) at Lingfield on his final start. Half a length ahead of Hayek was Allannah Abu who won at Catterick this afternoon. Joe Fanning has a 35% record with the trainer's 3 years olds and I expect this horse to run well in the last. :ok
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Thursday Newcastle 6-10 - Whispered Times - Lay Was third in a claimer last time out at Redcar and returns back to handicap company today. Still 6 lbs higher than when winning over 6 furlongs at Newcastle a few runs ago and still looks much too high in the weights. Robert Winston is also 0 wins from 11 runs with the trainer Tracy Waggott.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Wednesday I'm doing this a bit earlier this time. :lol Salisbury 2-10 - Royal Exchange - Lay Beaten favourite on debut and finished 2nd only beaten a head by Klammer (who won next time out and then finished 5th in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot). Nemen in 4th did also win next time out too. Last time out though was more of a concern when beaten at 30/100f by Ballista at Haydock when veering to the left near the finish and not showing much of a turn of foot. Five furlongs at Salisbury will be much tougher and Perfect Pastime who came 2nd last time out should improve. There are 6 in this race who haven't run before including Henry Candy's Cape Rambler and I feel that the favourite is much too short in this race.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ June I wasn't sure if I left it too late. :$ It was my fault though as I was watching South Africa v France and suddenly realise it was the 3-30 race. I took consolation in the fact that my selection was well beaten. I'll be much earlier in future. :ok
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Re: Lay of the day - Tues 22 June Brighton 3-30 Yourgolftravel.com - Lay Very consistent runner at Brighton being placed in all 5 runs here. Going up in trip today and also up 4 lbs for the second in it's last run over course and distance. This looks a competitve enough race with two proven course and distance winners and other horses in good form.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ June 18th Musselburgh 2-55 - First Class Favour - Lay Was 7th in a listed race at Beverley last time out (Form not worked out at all since) and although a drop into a selling race seems significant, the race it won previous to that was in a much lower class than this. Crimson Knot finished second over course and distance behind Excel Bolt who finished third at Royal Ascot yesterday in the Norfolk Stakes. Molly Mylenis who won a maiden in this class also over course and distance beating Kheya look the most likely winners
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Re: LOTD - Thursday 10th June Nottingham 4-00 - Decorative - Lay Won impressively on his debut last season at Yarmouth over 6 furlongs beating Battlemaiden by 4 lengths on good to firm ground. That race has produced a few winners. The problems today are that 8 furlongs on good to soft ground at Nottingham is going to stretch the stamina a bit too much and the breeding would suggest a ideal trip shorter than today. With Gunner Lindley and Bintalwaadi the two most likely main winners, I am going to lay this favourite.
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Looks as though it has run it's last race. Most likely to be knocked down and turned into housing. A very sad day. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/8730713.stm
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Wednesday 9th June Beverley 4-00 - Advertisement - Lay Jeremy Noseda doesn't send many horses up to Beverley but has a decent record with 4 winners out of his 8 rides that have gone there. The bookies seemed to have overreacted with the price of this one. It finished 2nd last time at Kempton beaten by the odds-on favourite Udabaa who ran very badly next time out in an ordinary handicap at Leicester. Previously to that Advertisement was beaten 8 lengths by Colonel Carter in a Newbury maiden and the form hasn't worked out very well although the winner did just win a modest handicap next time out off a mark of 83. Fifty Moore looks a good alternative after being beaten by Rainfall who was a close second in a listed race at Haydock next time and the horse in third, Cockney Class winning a good handicap at Newmarket next time and fifth place Boss's Destination winning a Newcastle maiden. Rule Breaker, Silvery Moon and even State Fair could all go very close too.
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Re: Epsom 5th June - DERBY DAY I backed the first four in my ratings which included Workforce and also that got me Snow Fairy yesterday when I backed it at 16/1 so it's been a good weekend so far. :ok
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Re: Ballydoyle problems ?? Aidan O'Brien's record in the last few years with his 3 year olds until the end of May reads as follows: (in Ireland only) 2006 - 49 runs 8 winners (16.3%) 2007 - 73 runs 13 wins (17.8%) 2008 - 70 runs 13 wins (18.6%) 2009 - 58 runs 13 wins (22.4%) 2010 - 97 runs 12 wins (12.4%) In June things have usually started to improve. 2006 - 17 runs 6 wins (35.3%) 2007 - 25 runs 5 wins (20%) 2008 - 36 wins 7 wins (19.4%) 2009 - 31 wins 8 wins (25.8%) I think it's a bit early to be writing him off just yet.
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Re: LOTD - Tuesday 25th May Hexham 8-05 - King Roonah - Lay I watched him run at Perth on Sunday and 15 lengths clear coming to the last fence you might have put your mortgage on him cruising to victory but he unseated Brian Hughes and gifted victory to Sotovik. Tonight he runs in a handicap hurdle and I'm not really sure the 5/4 is good value despite the fact that McCoy takes over the reins. In 4 hurdle races in Ireland was beaten a total of 161 lengths. King Penda & Harcas should be thereabouts.
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Re: Ripon 25th May Some really excellent results today. 2-40 Northern Aces - Won 16/1 adv :ok 3-10 Yashrid - Won 5/2f :ok (Won by a very short nose) 3-40 Charlie Cool - Won 5/1 :ok & Bencoolen - 3rd 33/1 :clap 4-10 Patavium - Won 11/2 :ok 4-40 Kathlatino - 2nd 20/1 :clap (Headed near the line) Very well done! :)
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Re: Ripon 25th May 4-10 Patavium - Win Won't be inconvenienced by the good-soft ground and has been running consistently well being in the first three in 6 out of it's last 7 runs on the flat. Paul Hanagan takes over the ride today and should get close.
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Re: doncaster - sat 15th may Some excellent tipping tonight. :clap 6-30 Swiss Cross - 2nd 8/1 (Only beaten a neck) 7-05 Oneladyowner - Won 7/2 8-10 Tubby Isaacs - Won 8/1 8-10 Dancing Maite - 3rd 10/1 8-40 Bilash - 2nd 11/2 (Beaten a short-head)
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Saturday 15th May Doncaster 8-40 Ravenfield - Win Been crying out for 6 furlongs in it's two runs to date. The main rival is Humidor who has looked as though a bit one paced over the trip.
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Re: Lay of the day - Fri 14th May Newbury 4-00 Strong Suit - Lay Another Richard Hannon 2 year old hotpot perhaps? Maybe so but his full brother Naseehah is rated 85 but only ever raced over a minimum of a mile (Only win at 9.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton) which would suggest that six furlongs today is perhaps a little on the short side. Straight Line has been in good form and look out for Shostakovich.
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Re: BBOTD Fri 14/5/10 York 3-45 - Diman Waters - Win I watched him finish 2nd last time out at Chester to Archers Road who ran creditably in Listed and Group company last season. Had every chance but was only beaten a neck in the end. Previously beat Rio Mist (Won yesterday at Salisbury). A lot of the value has gone on this but Eric Alston has brought him out again quickly and he's dropped back down in grade and has every chance of success.
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Re: The Punters Lounge 100/1 Challenge - WE HAVE OUR WINNER There are some incredible winners in that list. Jason Weaver on ATR mentioned Lucky Breeze at Yarmouth on Tuesday at 66/1 as a value selection and was totally gutted not to have put any money on it when it won by 5 lengths. :lol
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Re: LOTD - Wednesday 12th May Exeter 3-20 - Ballycarney - Lay Was 3rd at Kempton last time beaten less than a length by High Jack and finished well. That was over 2 miles 5 furlongs and this is a 3 mile race and so far in previous races hasn't proven to fully have the stamina to last out the extra distance. Also all of it's best runs have been all on mostly flat and sharp tracks and Exeter is a totally different challenge and there are plenty of proven horses in this race to at least find one good enough to beat it.
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Re: Lay of the day 11th May 4-50 Locum - Lay Won over course and distance on it's seasonal debut by two and a half lengths from Kazbow (Who runs in the 5-20 and will probably lose again). Ryan Moore has 2 wins from 2 rides on Locum but both wins were at Yarmouth on marks of 63 and although it has conditions to suit today may find one just too good. Capable Guest who should find conditions more to his liking today and Broughtons Paradis who is slowly returning to form and also a winning mark should both be the main dangers.
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Re: Towcester - BIG sting landed Barney Curley is a legend for sure. The only problem is that when I'm aware of his gambles, there's no value left. I watched Sommersturm's race at Wolverhampton yesterday and when I saw the price plummet I did wonder if it had been laid out. Fortunately for me I had backed Blackstone Vegas to win with Ladbrokes and it went and won at 5/1 so Barney and his connections weren't the only happy people last night. :ok
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ April 22nd Fontwell 3-20 Mayberry - Lay Hasn't done much over hurdles yet after winning a bumper at Fontwell in October last year. Finished 3rd last time at Plumpton but ran as though 2 miles was the maximum trip and the extra quarter of a mile looks to be too far. There are a couple of others (Astrolibra and Perception) who show more promise and also some ex flat horses who might go well.
Eurovision 2012
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: Eurovision 2012 The worrying fact for me is that three of the five songs I liked are all over 100/1 with some bookmakers. My shortlist is Italy 16/1, Romania 30/1, Malta 100/1, France 150/1 and Hungary 300/1.