[Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion]

Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Rushian, the "value" is likely to be on the longshots i think we all accept that. looking at the figures id be quite happy folowing the value on bolton and pompie. i think it is also worth laying tottenham at that sort of price. My other thoughts on these predictions move more into trading than fixed odds. If you can bet in play to get the price you want after no longer than x amount of minutes then is this worth doing? i think 1st goal average is about 35 minutes, if my team hits the price after 15 minutes id consider it worth a go? My other thought is how well these predictions are calculating betfair starting prices. if they are pretty accurate for the starting prices, would it be reasonabe to assume that you can back or lay the price on a friday with the expectation it will fall in line with the model predictions? you can then just trade out before a ball is even kicked? I dunno, maybe it was too much beer last night! good luck all with whatever bets you have

[Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion]

[Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion]

Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion hi rushian thanks for the link, i couldnt find much details about how your system worked and the link stopped in october. did you give up on the system or just on posting the results? As i understand it any system based on stats is dodgy at the start of the season as you dont have reliable data on how that years teams are performing, also teams like man utd etc will drop a few points unexpectedly (same with the end of the season). Just wondered if you made profit from the rest of the season? Batigol, im interested in how you are getting on so please feel free to drop me a line some time. cheers all and good luck

[Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion]

Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Batigol Im a newbie too and like you i would like to know a little more about how people are calculating their percentages. http://groups.google.com/group/fixed-odds-soccer is a link to some stuff i tried posting on t'internet last year to try and get some help/collaborators. although there is a load of information in it (i was basically pulling all sorts of data in the hope of finding some snippets of info) i basically calculated my percentages using a rather crude weighting of overall results, home, away, last 8 matches etc. it doesnt seem too bad on tricky games, however it is useless at percentages of hot favourites but if you just look at the favourite teams stats then that brings it more in line with other people's predictions. if anyone could hep point me as to where I am going wrong id be really grateful cheers j

[Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion]

[do arbs opportunities really just offer value?]

this forum seems to have a wealth of knowledge so i though i would just ask the question before starting research. Ive noticed that when there is an arb opportunity (or close to it), especially at low odds, the result often comes in. Does anyone have any research on whether these odds are really offering value? Betfair etc will normay find a more realistic value for the market but where this figure might go below a bookies fixed odds then it will not go below this figure as it just creates arb oppportunities, therefore is it a marginally higher price than it should be? If that is the case then I would think it reasonable to bet with the bookmaker (therefore not paying commission unless obviously the exchange is better priced) and over time it should produce a positive return? All comments appreciated. thanks smj

[martingale the virtual football at corals?!?!]

Re: martingale the virtual football at corals?!?! thanks harold90, maybe i have misunderstood the martingale system somewhere. i plan to win a target amount (ie £1 per team) and i adjust my stake to cover my losses and gain my target depending on the odds available so i think i am doing the same as you. Please let me know if this is not the case. Ive had a go on the fun money and played for real until i lost the £50 in my account but i think with £300 i should be okay!!!! they do say a fool and his money are easily parted!!!

[martingale the virtual football at corals?!?!]

hi all second post and possibly the bit where i get a reputation for being a muppet but here goes. I am sure you all understand the martingale system but if you are willing to risk lots of cash for small reward then maybe it should not be quickly dismissed. Basically I am thinking of using the martingale system (chasing my losses) on corals's virtual football game. My plan is to pick 5 teams at the start of the season, bet the draw for each of my 5 teams, every game until they draw and increase the stake to recover my losses ( i stop once they have drawn). from a quick review of previous results and knowledge of football most teams will draw within 10 games, frequently on coral a team will go 14 games before a draw and the biggest run i have seen is 22 games. I am only aiming to make £1 per team and at average odds of about 4s i think i need a kitty of about £300 for a worse case scenario. You are probably thinking i am nuts but the virtual football runs contstantly therefore although you only make £1 per team you will make £5 for about 15 minutes work risking upto £50 (for 14 game run) and the likelyhood is only 1 of your teams will go on this run. I can do this every hour until my pot builds up and then i can raise my stake. I pressume the random number generators for these type of games has to allow for a draw soon er or late. Unlike the similar systems used on the roulette wheels, at these prices it is highly unlicky that you will hit the house limit and your risk factor goes up relatively slowly for such a dangerous system. You will probably be glad to know im only planning to try this with money i have taken off the bookies in free bets :loon Id love to know what you all think cheers j

[football statistics for back testing]

hi all first post so please just ask me anything i miss or tell me if i go wrong somewhere - basically bear with me. anyway, during the boredom of the day job i started building an excel spreadsheet for european football in order to find the holy grail and give up work. the spreadsheet records all of the useful (and some useless) data from football 365 for all major euro leagues and sorts it into a look up table that gets pulled up for the team that is playing. I didnt do this every week but I do have loads of results and pre match statistics that are much more comprehensive than anything else I have found on the web ie last 8 matches, last 6 hm, aw, vtop, vbottom, (look at football365 to get a better idea.). I posted the data i had on google groups but didnt get any traffic so id sort of given up on it, however now i have found punterslounge i am hoping there are some people out there to inspire me again. i dont really know what to do with the data to analyse it! the info for last season is available at http://groups.google.com/group/fixed-odds-soccer. unfortunately I had so many stats and anaylsis i have had to break the worksheets down to post them on the web but i would love to know what people think and if they can give me any advice. i do have the files for the prices and pre-match statistics for this season aswell, however I havent inputted any of the results yet. i would of course be willing to do this and share the info with people. if you are serious about a bit of working together i can burn the info onto cd and send it to you to have a look at. Anyway, ive rambled on long enough, i hope to hear from anyone soon and good luck with your gamblin all j