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statman john

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About statman john

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/01/1977
  1. Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Rushian, the "value" is likely to be on the longshots i think we all accept that. looking at the figures id be quite happy folowing the value on bolton and pompie. i think it is also worth laying tottenham at that sort of price. My other thoughts on these predictions move more into trading than fixed odds. If you can bet in play to get the price you want after no longer than x amount of minutes then is this worth doing? i think 1st goal average is about 35 minutes, if my team hits the price after 15 minutes id consider it wo
  2. Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion hi rushian thanks for the link, i couldnt find much details about how your system worked and the link stopped in october. did you give up on the system or just on posting the results? As i understand it any system based on stats is dodgy at the start of the season as you dont have reliable data on how that years teams are performing, also teams like man utd etc will drop a few points unexpectedly (same with the end of the season). Just wondered if you made profit from the rest of the season? Batigol, im interested in how y
  3. Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Batigol Im a newbie too and like you i would like to know a little more about how people are calculating their percentages. http://groups.google.com/group/fixed-odds-soccer is a link to some stuff i tried posting on t'internet last year to try and get some help/collaborators. although there is a load of information in it (i was basically pulling all sorts of data in the hope of finding some snippets of info) i basically calculated my percentages using a rather crude weighting of overall results, home, away, last 8 matches etc.
  4. this forum seems to have a wealth of knowledge so i though i would just ask the question before starting research. Ive noticed that when there is an arb opportunity (or close to it), especially at low odds, the result often comes in. Does anyone have any research on whether these odds are really offering value? Betfair etc will normay find a more realistic value for the market but where this figure might go below a bookies fixed odds then it will not go below this figure as it just creates arb oppportunities, therefore is it a marginally higher price than it should be? If that is the cas
  5. Re: martingale the virtual football at corals?!?! thanks harold90, maybe i have misunderstood the martingale system somewhere. i plan to win a target amount (ie £1 per team) and i adjust my stake to cover my losses and gain my target depending on the odds available so i think i am doing the same as you. Please let me know if this is not the case. Ive had a go on the fun money and played for real until i lost the £50 in my account but i think with £300 i should be okay!!!! they do say a fool and his money are easily parted!!!
  6. hi all second post and possibly the bit where i get a reputation for being a muppet but here goes. I am sure you all understand the martingale system but if you are willing to risk lots of cash for small reward then maybe it should not be quickly dismissed. Basically I am thinking of using the martingale system (chasing my losses) on corals's virtual football game. My plan is to pick 5 teams at the start of the season, bet the draw for each of my 5 teams, every game until they draw and increase the stake to recover my losses ( i stop once they have drawn). from a quick review of previous res
  7. hi all first post so please just ask me anything i miss or tell me if i go wrong somewhere - basically bear with me. anyway, during the boredom of the day job i started building an excel spreadsheet for european football in order to find the holy grail and give up work. the spreadsheet records all of the useful (and some useless) data from football 365 for all major euro leagues and sorts it into a look up table that gets pulled up for the team that is playing. I didnt do this every week but I do have loads of results and pre match statistics that are much more comprehensive than anything
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