Samba_SamPa
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Posts posted by Samba_SamPa
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Re: Golf The Masters Lost just under 5pts on the 2-Ball betting today - rueing Westwood missing his par putt on the 18th that would have seen me 18pts richer :( Should be a good final day tomorrow. Tiger's crept into a challenging position, but it has been a while since the winner came from anywhere other than the final group - and I can't see Snedeker turning round the deficit with Immelman in that pairing. Back tomorrow with my final round 2-Ball fancies
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Re: Golf The Masters My Third Round 2-ball tips:
Sport Golf Event Masters 3rd Round: Singh v Furyk Selection Vijay Singh Strength 6/10 Date 12/04/2008 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 1.91 (Back) Reasoning Vijay Singh has an excellent record here at Augusta - top 15 in the last 6 years - and he played brilliantly tee to green yesterday in the 2nd round. Had his putter been in form, he could easily have went around in 4, 5, 6 shots less than he did. 10/11 about him even finding an extra couple of shots today and defeating Jim Furyk looks to be good value. Sport Golf Event Masters 3rd Round: Dougherty v Karlsson Selection Dougherty Strength 5/10 Date 12/04/2008 Bookmaker/Price Betfred @ 2.10 (Back) Reasoning The momentum coming into this 3rd round is with Masters debutant Nick Dougherty. He followed an opening round 74 with a 69 yesterday, and he deserved the score too, with some excellent recovery play and putting. Swede Karlsson meanwhile shot an opening round 2 under par 70, but followed that up yesterday with a 1 over round of 73. A few bookies are going Evens each of two, whilst some are going 10/11 Dougherty 11/10 Karlsson. Betfred are the only bookies to make Karlsson favourite, and I will be taking the odds-against available there for the Englishman Sport Golf Event Masters 3rd Round: Goosen v Westwood Selection Draw Strength 2/10 Date 12/04/2008 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 9.00 (Back) Reasoning Retief Goosen will be coming into today's 3rd round wondering what might have been, as he stood on -3 with 5 holes to play yesterday, before bogeying 2 of the last 5 holes to finish with a second consecutive 71 for an overall score of -2. Westwood also sits on the same score going into the weekend, but he comes into the weekend on the back of an overpar second round of 73. The score doesn't necessarily reflect the solid play displayed by Westwood yesterday however, the man from Worksop dropped shots on only 1 of the 18 holes, shooting 16 pars altogether. Both men will be looking at shooting a solid round, maybe picking up a couple of shots to close in on the protagonists and giving themselves a chance on the final day. With that in mind I have a sneaky suspicion that these two are going to go round pretty much shot for shot with each other, and have backed the draw to small stakes. Sport Golf Event Masters 3rd Round: Mickelson v Flesch Selection Phil Mickleson Strength 10/10 Date 12/04/2008 Bookmaker/Price Betfred @ 1.53 (Back) Reasoning Albeit Steve Flesch has performed well on the first 2 days, it is not a hard decision for me to go with 'Big Leftie' here. Mickelson, twice a winner in the previous 4 Masters tournaments, comes into the weekend having made par or better on 34 of the 36 holes he has played so far. Having seen him interviewed following his second round yesterday, he appears to be in great spirits, his pre-season fitness regime looks to have paid dividends, and he gives the impression he has merely been feeling his way around the course on the opening 2 days. I envisage Mickelson really taking control of the tournament in this third round. He won't want to be within touching distance of Tiger on Sunday, and I predict a score of around 68/69 for Phil today. Sport Golf Event Masters 3rd Round: Immelman v Snedeker Selection Trevor Immelman Strength 8/10 Date 12/04/2008 Bookmaker/Price Expekt @ 1.95 (Back) Reasoning With every respect for how Brandt Snedeker has played the course so far, I can't oppose Immelman in this match-up, simply due to the fact that the weekend is where I envisage the likes of Snedeker, Poulter, Flesch to start slipping, while the likes of Mickleson, Ames, Goosen etc start to pick up shots and make headway. Having perhaps not been in a challenging position for a Major before, I am sticking my neck out and tipping Snedeker to shoot over par today, maybe 74/75, and for that reason I have backed Immelman at 10/11 to triumph - although 14/15 is available with Expekt -
Re: PL World Series of Poker Live Event Could someone point me in the right direction for an inauguration, if you like, into the PL Poker community. Just to get some idea of what you all get up to, and which sites and all that malarkey? I'd definitely be up for the Hold Em event in this if the venue was Newcastle. Other venues would be a bit unlikely as there's a new addition due in the summer and overnight time off will be non existent :)
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
Decent night, going to need plenty more if I am to be in a half decent position come stage 2 though.17 Barcelona v Schalke; 09 April 2008 Under 2.5 goals 2.00 W £ 4.00 18 Man Utd v Roma; 09 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 2.00 L £ - 19 Ipswich v Cardiff; 09 April 2009 Over 2.5 goals 2.20 L £ - 20 Watford v Barnsley;09 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 2.00 W £ 4.00 21 Stockport v Mansfield; 09 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 2.00 W £ 4.00 -
Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
17 Barcelona v Schalke; 09 April 2008 Under 2.5 goals 2.00 18 Man Utd v Roma; 09 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 2.00 19 Ipswich v Cardiff; 09 April 2009 Over 2.5 goals 2.20 20 Watford v Barnsley;09 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 2.00 21 Stockport v Mansfield; 09 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 2.00 -
Re: Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion Hi Guys, Interesting stuff. I am paper trialling a '1X2' system myself at the moment. I am only eeking out the 'value' bets for what my system regards as the most likely outcome, and there has to be a 15% buffer to next most likely. Very very early days so far, but I am happy to share my Premiership percentages if you are happy to include them in your calculations. Just done this weekend's... looks a tricky weekend, no qualifiers for my system - only Everton and Man City value prices and neither are big enough [8.5% or so] favourites. Match 1 X 2 Birmingham v Everton 33.46 24.32 42.22 Bolton v West Ham 44.52 24.40 31.08 Derby v Aston Villa 33.04 26.00 40.96 Portsmouth v Newcastle 44.74 32.16 23.10 Reading v Fulham 47.52 22.39 30.09 Sunderland v Man City 36.49 18.32 45.12 Tottenham v Middlesbrough 36.54 36.11 27.35 Liverpool v Blackburn 50.54 31.71 17.75 Man Utd v Arsenal 49.53 27.15 23.33 Chelsea v Wigan 78.17 15.86 5.96
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Re: Champions League - April 8th
I am neither an Arsenal nor a Liverpool fan, just an impartial observer. Not bothered about the losing Arsenal bet either as made a v nice profit anyway. The fact is though - Kuyt on Hleb last week was more of a penalty than Toure on Babel tonight. Somehow Liverpool manage to scrape through time and again - late late winners, 'non-goals' [Chelsea], surviveblatant penalty appeals, winning soft penalties.... Was a cracker of a game tonight, but over the 180 minutes, Arsenal deserve the SF place. IMO :unsure:moon:nana:nana:nana:loonLucky? :moon time and again we always do it!!! Arsenal contributed to a great game but Liverpool worthy winners! pity your such a sore LOSER! :cow:clap:cow:clap:loon:cow -
Re: Champions League - April 8th
£60 on, £138 back :ok Well done all winners. Except lucky Liverpool :@Tonight's bets Arsenal win - £15 @ 13/5 Pinnacle Liv v Ars Over 2.5 goals - £25 @ 7/5 Expekt Che v Fen CS 2-0 - £12 @ 11/2 Ladbrokes Che v Fen CS 3-0 - £8 @ 8/1 Stan James Good luck all -
Re: Champions League - April 8th I think Arsenal can get the better of Liverpool at Anfield tonight. Whatever is said about Rafa and Liverpool being more suited to playng Europe, the fact remains that Arsenal aren't a European team, and one look at the table shows that they are a better side than the scouse. Were it not for the extraordinary amount of luck Liverpool have in the Champions League there wouldn't be the argument of '2 finals in last 3 years'. 13/5 with Pinnacle for Arsenal to win inside 90 minutes looks like a real insult to the Gunners. I also think there could well be goals tonight, again going against the grain of popular opinion. 7/5 is available with Expekt for Over 2.5 goals, nd I will be having a play on that too. Chelsea should win, and win relatively comfortably, even if it is DESPITE Avram and not because of Avram! Tonight's bets Arsenal win - £15 @ 13/5 Pinnacle Liv v Ars Over 2.5 goals - £25 @ 7/5 Expekt Che v Fen CS 2-0 - £12 @ 11/2 Ladbrokes Che v Fen CS 3-0 - £8 @ 8/1 Stan James Good luck all
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
13 Fulham v Sunderland; 05 April 2008 Fulham 2.20 L £ - 14 Sheff Utd v Leicester; 05 April 2008 Sheff Utd 1.91 W £ 3.82 15 Plymouth v Charlton; 05 April 2008 Plymouth 2.25 L £ - 16 Crewe v Southend; 05 April 2008 Southend 2.25 W £ 4.50 -
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
11 2.00 Aintree; 03 April 2008 Inglis Drever 2.63 L £ - 12 3.10 Aintree; 03 April 2008 Celestial Halo 2.63 £ - -
Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1 Well.. I DID say "probably" definitely :)
11 2.00 Aintree; 03 April 2008 Inglis Drever 2.63 £ - -
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Re: Mr Shrewdie's Double Chance Glory Hunt Good luck Mr Shrewdie
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Re: Stages of stupidity...??? Good start to this stage HooLooVoo :) Best of luck
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
Regarding the Arsenal v Liverpool bet, although it is larger odds than normally the case on this Glory Hunt method, it is a compromise for me between fancying 'No Scorer' at 5/1 and not wanting to take 'Under 2 goals' at odds on :)7 2.40 Nottingham; 02 April 2008 Sally's Dilemma @ SP £ - 8 3.10 Nottingham; 02 April 2008 Reverence @ 2.75 2.75 £ - 9 Arsenal v Liverpool; 02 April 2008 Half with most goals - TIE 3.40 £ - 10 8.50 Kempton; 02 April 2008 Poppy Dean to place [Tote Odds] £ - -
Re: Pay off our loan! Nice going Mr F, long may it continue. Keep it going for 500 bets and you can pay off my loan too :ok
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1 Maintaining the 50% record only, long way to go though
Bets 6 Winners 3 Losers 3 Strikerate 50% Starting Bank £100 Current Bank £100.90 P/L +£0.90 Stage 2 Projection on current stats - 26 bets @ £4, 1 bet @ £3.503 AS Roma v Manchester United; 01 April 2008 Draw at HT 2.00 L £ - 4 Schalke v Barcelona; 01 April 2008 Barcelona 2.25 W £ 4.50 5 Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet; 01 April 2008 Kidderminster 2.10 W £ 4.20 6 Cardiff v WBA; 01 April 2008 Over 2.5 goals 1.90 L £ - -
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1 Woohoo, always nice to get that first win on the board! Party Boss was placed in third, and the Tote dividend was £2.10 to a £, so paid 11/10. Bets 2 Winners 1 Losers 1 Strikerate 50% Starting Bank £100 Current Bank £100.20 P/L +£0.20 Stage 2 Projection on current stats - 26 bets @ £4, 1 bet @ £1
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Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
Off out for a bit now, if this one doesn't come in, I will consider making just football bets. The tote dividend, if it places, will be declared post-raceBET NO. MARKET SELECTION ODDS RESULT RETURNS 1 3.50 Wetherby; 01 April 2008 Mr Barnacle 2.10 L £ - 2 4.45 Southwell; 01 April 2008 Party Boss to place [Tote Odds] £ - -
Re: Samba's Holiday Fund v1
BET NO. MARKET SELECTION ODDS RESULT RETURNS 1 3.50 Wetherby; 01 April 2008 Mr Barnacle 2.10 £ - -
I hope nobody minds, but I am going to jump on the 'EvilChris 8 Stage System' thingy :) Been reading through the relevant threads and it has me intrigued, so I have deposited £100 into my Ladbrokes account, and I am going to, as they say, have a bash, trying to win spends for the summer holiday. Depending on my success, or lack thereof, we could be dining out on steak every night... or maybe staying in with jam sarnies :lol The System: Starting bank of £100 is split into 50 sub-banks each containing £2.00
- Place (50) 100% bets with each sub-bank at a selection with odds of (roughly) 2.00
- Returns from winning bets are then split into 'x' sub-banks of £4.00, which are then again wagered on selections at 2.00.
- This is continued until there is only 1 or 2 sub-banks remaining, at which point I either bank the profit and start a new 'run' or I continue until I'm in profit (or go bust!)
- Stage 1 - Bets of £2.00 to win £4.00
- Stage 2 - Bets of £4.00 to win £8.00
- Stage 3 - Bets of £8.00 to win £16.00
- Stage 4 - Bets of £16.00 to win £32.00
- Stage 5 - Bets of £32.00 to win £64.00
- Stage 6 - Bets of £64.00 to win £128.00
- Stage 7 - Bets of £128.00 to win £256.00
- Stage 8 - Bets of £256.00 to win £512.00
Rules:
- All bets are placed through Ladbrokes
- Although most selections will be no higher than odds of ~2.50, should a value selection be noticed at higher odds, I will go ahead and take it.
- I will make bets on a variety of sports, basically whatever I am confident at the time
Thanks to Madnesstiger for the spreadsheet. I will be back soon with my first selection(s) :drums
The 2.5%, 200 level, mortgage buster
in Glory Hunters
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Re: The 2.5%, 200 level, mortgage buster best of luck for a better day tomorrow mate