si1965
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Posts posted by si1965
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Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Oceania > Sept 7th New Caledonia 0 - New Zealand 2 :nana
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Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Oceania > Sept 7th Hi, I assume you are the same Louis as on CPFC :unsure Popped on here as I was looking at the All Whites (FIFA ranking 95) match against New Caledonia (ranked 128). This is a must-win for NZ (certainly in the eyes of their supporters) following their 2-0 exit from the Nations Cup in June at the hands of their opponents on Friday. They did field an under-strength team that day and will be bolstered tomorrow with their english-based stars - Premiership defenders Ryan Nelsen (Queen's Park Rangers) and Winston Reid (West Ham) will join Tommy Smith (Ipswich Town) as the back-line of the 3-4-3 formation NZ adopted in their last WC campaign. New Zealand coach Ricki Herbert on the return of Nelsen and Reid: "We miss them when they're not here, it's like the All Blacks when Dan Carter and Richie McCaw aren't playing." On the WC qualifier: "We need to be ruthless at home and clinical away during this campaign if we are serious about reaching a consecutive World Cup. A winning start is vital as we don’t want to open the door for anyone else to build momentum.” Without undermining New Caledonia's achievement too much, the previous match in the Nations Cup was in New Caledonia, in very hot conditions and was the 4th match in 8 days (9 days for NC). Whilst the NZ squad are all full-time professionals, New Caledonia did play the game at a very high tempo and pace despite the conditions. NZ have a full strength side whilst New Caledonia will be without French-based defender Judikael Ixoee (Hyères) and midfielder Marius Bako. New Zealand should have enough to edge this and 1.7 (Betvictor) looks reasonable odds.
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Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Concacaf > Sept 7th/8th The USA look like an interesting proposition at good odds. Jamaica have yet to beat the US, but the US will be without a number of big names – Landon Donovan, Michael Bradley and Joshua Gatt with Dempsey up front lacking some valuable match-fitness. Klinsmann has had a positive affect, albeit in friendly matches, with recent victories over Italy and Mexico.
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Re: Too close to call Lost 3-2 :(
Bank A Bank B Starting Bank 100 100 Current bank 94.8 97.9 Total staked 60 61 Number of bets 6 6 Winning bets 2 4 Losing bets 4 2 Strike rate 33% 67% Yield -9% -3% -
Re: Too close to call A midweek pick north of the border... East Fife v Ayr Utd Ayr Utd @ 2.62 (Pinnacle) Ayr Utd or Draw @ 1.53 (SkyBet) Both stake = 11
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Re: Too close to call Kidderminster oblige with a 2-1 victory :beer
Bank A Bank B Starting Bank 100 100 Current bank 105.4 108.8 Total staked 49 50 Number of bets 5 5 Winning bets 2 4 Losing bets 3 1 Strike rate 40% 80% Yield 11% 18% -
Re: Too close to call Dropping down to the BlueSq Premier this weekend. Mansfield Town v Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminister @ 2.92 (Pinnacle) Kidderminster +0.5 @ 1.59 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Too close to call Nothing fits the model for this weekend.
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Re: Too close to call Southend come back from a goal down to earn a draw. Bank B looking healthier.
Bank A Bank B Starting Bank 100 100 Current bank 87.9 103.2 Total staked 40 40 Number of bets 4 4 Winning bets 1 3 Losing bets 3 1 Strike rate 25% 75% Yield -30% 8% -
Re: Too close to call This is the situation after the Lincoln Citry home win.
Unfortunately due to the site problems last week I couldn't post my selection (Newcastle v Everton) In the interests of fairness I will ignore last week so this weekend there is again one selection, once again I am opposing Lincoln: Lincoln City v Southend Southend @ 2.7 (StanJames) Southend or Draw @ 1.5 (StanJames)Bank A Bank B Starting Bank 100 100 Current bank 97.7 98.0 Total staked 30 30 Number of bets 3 3 Winning bets 1 2 Losing bets 2 1 Strike rate 33% 67% Yield -8% -7% -
Re: Too close to call Got a selection for midweek: 1st March League 2 Lincoln City v Oxford United Oxford @ 2.75 (VCBet) Oxford - Draw @ 1.5 (PaddyPower) Both stake 11 points (10% of bank rounded to nearest whole number)
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Re: Too close to call Always good to start on a winning note. As soon as Watford went down to 10 men I knew the win was probably out of reach, but at least the draw counts for Bank B.
Bank A Bank B Starting Bank 100 100 Current bank 108.5 108.9 Total staked 19 19 Number of bets 2 2 Winning bets 1 2 Losing bets 1 0 Strike rate 50% 100% Yield 45% 47% -
Re: Too close to call There is a second match that fits the criteria this weekend: Doncaster v Watford Watford @ 2.75 (VCBet) Watford or Draw @ 1.5 (Bet365)
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Just an idea at the moment, so I thought I would start a thread here to track it's progress.
Basically I will be selecting matches where the bookies price up the home and away side equally. I will be tracking the success of backing the away side and also a separate bank taking the X2 more conservative option.
Bets will be 10% of bank and I will generally try and get best odds available.
My first selection for the weekend:
Middlesbrough v QPR
QPR @ 2.75 (VCBet)
QPR or Draw @ 1.44 (Bet365)
Bank A (Away) / Bank B (Double Chance)
Starting Bank = 100 / 100
Current bank = 90 / 90
Total staked = 10 / 10
Number of bets = 1 / 1
Winning bets = 0 / 0
Losing bets = 0 / 0
Strike rate = 0% / 0%
Yield = 0% / 0%
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Re: Conmebol Sudamericano Sub-20 / 2011
but I say this' date=' to make the bet with a higher odd, but not for watch the firsts minutes of the match, because I don't know where I can see this tournament. If you know, please tell me[/quote'] Try http://www.livescorehunter.com/live-streaming-video-football/ -
Re: Cricket: ICC World Twenty20 2010 Cricinfo.com have a good summary of all the various permutations: http://www.cricinfo.com/world-twenty20-2010/content/story/459187.html I also fancy India to perform better today but think the result is too tight to call so I'm having a speculative punt on: Top Indian batsman: G. Ghambir @ 4.5 (Ladbrokes) He has had a disappointing tournament so far and is well down on his T20 average - 9.3 currently, career average =27. If he can survive the Sri Lankan pace attack, he plays spin very well.
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Re: Lucky 7 System Interesting strategy - tried it on paper (1 pt per race) with three meetings tonight. Two made small losses (-2 points and -3.75 points) but this was the third... Hall Green Race 1 : Won by Trap 5 (So I play [T2] to make [7]) Race 2 : Won by Trap 2 (3/1) (So miss next race) Race 3 : Won by Trap 6 (So I play [T1] to make [7]) Race 4 : Won by Trap 5 (So I play [T3] to make [14]) Race 5 : Won by Trap 2 (So I play [T1] to make [14]) Race 6 : Won by Trap 1 (4/1) (Miss next race) Race 7 : Won by Trap 6 (I play [T1] to make [7]) Race 8 : Won by Trap 1 (7/4) (Miss next race) Race 9 : Won by Trap 5 (I play [T2] to make [7]) Race 10 : Won by Trap 2 (4/1) So a 6pt outlay nets 16.75 points
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Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? I think you also have to acknowledge that there is a distinction between opening price and the eventual starting price - the former being the domain of the compilers where, when errors occur, the shrewd punter (e.g. Shipsupstreets comes to mind) can exploit early price offerings. The latter price is all due to market pressure and while it can be an adjustment due to an error in the initial price or some new information, it may equally have nothing to do with any of the factors the compilers utilised in the first place e.g. unfounded rumours that abound in the 'next manager' market.
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Re: new idea on prices. why do we bother? I am sure the compilers use a considerable number of factors when it comes to setting the prices. Even assuming that there are some factors more significant than others e.g. current form, any system would need to identify and quantify these. The danger with a system such as this lies in what you don’t measure – for example, you could be in possession of a piece of information e.g. a key striker has not made it through a late fitness test. The prices set by the bookies are in the ‘normal’ range according to your new system, so it appears as though there is some value to be had because of the missing striker. What you don’t know is that there could be a number of other minor factors that actually went in the teams favour and that these along with the absence of the striker has already been factored in – hence the ‘normal’ odds. Not sure how sophisticated the bookies are when it comes to the lower League and minor Leagues stuff – certainly there is not as much information as there is for the top European and UK Leagues. I think that in these cases you are much more likely to find a trend and bookies posting ‘generic’ prices for certain types of matches (as outlined by Duffman). Having said that, the impact of key players, injuries and suspensions in these Leagues (because of the small squads) are much more significant and easier to track.
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Re: Pinnacle line middling People do care :unsure I looked at this a few times but was waiting until you had enough results to observe a trend. My thoughts were based upon your decision to back both sides at the same time (30 minutes before the game). Assuming that the 'middle' that you are exploiting will be always a similar margin (movements in the line will move both sides equally), surely the only way in which you are going to maximise your chances of winning is by getting the best prices on both sides i.e. the greatest plus for the underdog (before it shortens) and the smallest minus for the favourite (before it lengthens) - effectively extending the 'middle'. Thus, if you think that a handicap is set too high, place the underdog bet (for maximum points allowance) and wait for the market to settle before backing the favourite (at the lower handicap). Obviously, the big difficulty is knowing which games have been handicapped wrongly and knowing which way the line will move. As you correctly stated at the beginning of the thread - games often end up very close to the spread set - so there are only few opportunities out there.
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Re: Lucky15 Long Shot HT/FT Does anyone know where I can get odds data for the 2005/6 season – i.e. what were the odds at kick off (1/X/2) for all the matches last season? Want to check to see if there is any correlation between the odds and the trends I observed for the Leagues. It would be good if we could somehow use the bookies own odds (that they spend a great deal of time and effort making as accurate as possible) to help identify the games that are more likely to finish 1/X or 2/X.
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Re: Lucky15 Long Shot HT/FT
Putting your task into perspective Chris: There are approx 66 matches in England (down to Conf level) and Scotland (inc Cup) today so: Approx a third will end up as a draw (22) Of these draws two thirds will be score draws (14) Approx a third of these will end up 1/X (5) So you need to choose EXACTLY the right matches - no margin for error :unsureThe overall figures were: Matches: 1801 Draws: 529 (29.4% of matches) Score Draws: 365 (69.0% of draws) 1/X: 108 (29.6% of draws) 2/X: 93 (25.5% of draws) -
Re: Lucky15 Long Shot HT/FT Thought I might as well complete the picture (slow day at the office ;) ) Scottish Premier Matches: 198 Draws: 49 (25% of matches) Score Draws: 39 (80% of draws) 1/X: 16 (41% of draws) 2/X: 9 (23% of draws) Scottish Division 1 Matches: 163 Draws: 56 (34% of matches) Score Draws: 34 (61% of draws) 1/X: 12 (35% of draws) 2/X: 9 (26% of draws) Scottish Division 2 Matches: 160 Draws: 33 (21% of matches) Score Draws: 23 (70% of draws) 1/X: 8 (35% of draws) 2/X: 11 (48% of draws) Scottish Division 3 Matches: 164 Draws: 31 (19% of matches) Score Draws: 24 (77% of draws) 1/X: 7 (29% of draws) 2/X: 5 (21% of draws) English Conference Matches: 404 Draws: 105 (26% of matches) Score Draws: 83 (79% of draws) 1/X: 26 (31% of draws) 2/X: 17 (20% of draws)
Unbeatable?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Unbeatable?
Have you considered doing doubles to try and generate greater profit? If you had done 10 doubles with those 5 matches you would have +6.5 profit