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protop

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Posts posted by protop

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    Home = 0.9429 Away = 0.9428 Draw = 0.6927 Makes your mouth water doesn't it. Even my maths mentors are impressed they told me to aim for 0.7 across the board but the Home/Away figures far surpassed this.
    Hi Can I ask how you measured your probabilities in terms of r-squared numbers Thanks Protop

    Testing Robustness of a System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Testing Robustness of a System Hi Relf just a thought is it better to combine all of tha data and test it as a whole, therefore having more data to play with or is it better to keep the probabilities separate to see where the deficiency in the model may lie. at the extremes for example. Thanks for your input

    Testing Robustness of a System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Testing Robustness of a System Hi Relf Thanks for the reply. This certainly seems one way of measuring it, the only problem is as you say if the strike rate falls between the bands then it is presumed accurate. I take it though that the nearer the middle of the band the more accurate it is? Therefore I assuming that 34% is more accurate than say 27% although both figures fall within the bands. Need to have a read up on the link you sent, thanks for your thoughts.

    Testing Robustness of a System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Testing Robustness of a System Hi Relf The first percentage is the calculated probability of the event happening and the second percentage is how often it actually happened. So 123 times i predicted that a horse had a 34% chance of winning, however these horses won 39 times out of 123 bets. Giving a strike rate of 32%. And so for all the percentages. Does this make it any clearer and have you any further thoughts. Thanks

    Testing Robustness of a System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Testing Robustness of a System How would you analyse the following for robustness.

    Amount Prediction Strike Rate 123 34% 32% 100 37% 35% 230 40% 41%

    These are based on a probability model and are not generated from odds. How accurate is the model. They can be horses, dogs, it doesn’t matter.

    Thanks

    Power Rating Soccer Predictions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions

    Hi Robkor Spanish Primera Pri 27/04 21:00 Real Madrid Ath.Bilbao 67% HW
    Irish Premier IPL 02/05 20:00 Derry Galway 61% HW
    Irish Premier IPL 02/05 20:00 Drogheda Finn Harps 69% HW
    Spanish Primera Pri 03/05 20:00 Ath.Madrid Huelva 62% HW
    Denmark Division 1 D1 04/05 11:00 Vejle Silkeborg 66% HW
    Denmark Division 1 D1 04/05 13:00 Frem Aar. Fremad 65% HW
    Denmark Division 1 D1 04/05 15:00 HFK Sondrjyl HIK 72% HW
    Denmark Division 1 D1 04/05 15:00 Koge Herfolge 51% AW
    Denmark Division 1 D1 04/05 15:00 Naestved Olstykke 60% HW
    Spanish Primera Pri 04/05 17:00 Barcelona Valencia 68% HW
    Spanish Primera Pri 04/05 17:00 Osasuna Real Madrid 56% AW
    Spanish Primera Pri 04/05 17:00 R.Santander Murcia 57% HW
    Spanish Primera Pri 04/05 17:00 Villareal Getafe 59% HW
    Spanish Segunda Seg 04/05 17:00 Sp.Gijon Granada 60% HW
    Not sure how you paste from excel, but here they are anyway. These are all the bets suitable for rating, however most are not value and would only do the value bets. Interestingly, my home wins to level stakes only break even it is the aways that show all my profit. Your selections seem to be the other way round - That's why I thought they would compliment each other. with optimal staking the HW's show a ROI of 14.58% and the AW's an ROI of 22.32% both after deductions.

    Power Rating Soccer Predictions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Mr

    protop, Maybe you're right, but if you have a look at the "optimal stakes" where there should be more value in the system, it is showing positive yield with 153bets. A lot of people here on PL would bet on just a few selections they believe that have real value, on the other hand I was trying to evaluate every single match. You can also see, that I've lost almost everything on Championship. Also, I use a bookmaker with ca.108% overround. We'll see...
    Hi Robkor As you say the optimal ratings is the way to go - You need to be betting across a range of bookmakers to make this pay, including exchanges, not forgetting the commission. This will all but eliminate the overround and you would have a far better chance of seeing reward for your hard work. Do you or can you rate other European leagues with power ratings. The reason i ask i also have my own rating system a modified poisson and am looking for a rating sytem to work alongside mine for mutual benefit. Not really given it much thought just a meeting of mindes really. Can post my week-end selections if you like!!

    Power Rating Soccer Predictions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Power Rating Soccer Predictions Hi Robkor You seem to put a lot of work in to posting your selections for the benefit of others, but correct me if i'm wrong are you saying that after 585 bets that you are showing a negative yield of -5.9%. Isn't this telling you/us something about the ratings or am i missing something here!

    Bogey Leagues

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi Guys Researching some of my stats, regarding which are the best or worst leagues to be on in regard to a win to loss ratio. I use a purely mechanical system to find my bets and no doubt there is a variety of selection methods on here. Does anybody get similar results are there really any european leagues we should avoid - Here's my list since (04/03/08) Belgian Jupiler - 10/12 (83.33%) Denmark Div 1 - 14/16 (87.55%) Dutch Ereedivision - 1/1 (100%) English Championship - 3/7 (42.85%) English Conference 7/17 (41.17%) English league 1 11/17 (64.70%) English League 2 13/18 (72.22%) English Premier league 14/22 (63.63%) French Div 1 4/6 (66.66%) French Div 2 6/10 (60%) German Bundesliga 1 6/13 (46.15%) German Regional North 9/13 (69.23%) Greece Div 1 9/10 (90%) Italian A 4/6 (66.66%) Italian B 0/1 (0%) Poland Div1 6/11 (54.54%) Portugal Super Liga 3/5 (60%) Scotland Div 1 2/4 (50%) Scotland Div 2 5/9 (55.55%) Scotland Div 3 0/3 (0%) Scotland Prenier 5/3 (62.5%) Spanish Primera 7/9 (77.77%) Spanish Segunda 1/4 (25%) Turkish super Liga 8/11 (77.77%) The following leagues have historically not fitted my prediction model and were therefore not bet on! German Budesliga 2 German regional South Denmark SAS Other European Leagues have not played enough games yet - For rating purposes. All those highlighted in red would have cost me money!! My system selection process dynamically filters out some leagues as the season progresses such as Scottish Div 3 hence only 3 bets placed (thankfully) Italian B would have been another. But there are some real bogey leagues that you can't forsee, that will cost you money. For me it looks like English Conference. any thoughts on how we may avoid certain leagues in the future without the benefit of hindsight particularly a measurable way of doing it! I must point out that I did not bet on every one of these games as they were not all value imo Alll comments most welcome................

    Poisson Model

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Poisson Thanks muppet77 have had a look throuh the threads, interesting read. Did you abandon the idea or improve upon it. The reason for asking is I have spent the last couple of years or so playing with differnt ideas and have come up with a model which will hopefully bear fruit. A few stats I have collected since the 4th March to date; 180 Fixtures rated: - a small sample I know! Using the poisson model to predict Homes and Aways (Average 63%) Using same model to predict Just Homes (Average 64%) Using same model to predict - Just Aways (Average 56%) Actual Results : Homes and Aways - 62% Homes - (63%) Aways - (58%) Another interesting point if i had placed 1 unit on each game without taking in to account Exchange commission I would have lost 1.8 units which is exactly ROI -1% So it seems to me that for the moment at least the model is predicting the games with some accuracy and secondly overall so are the Bookies/Exchanges. However that is overall, amongst the selections there are a reasonable amount of value bets according to the model and these are the ones of interest. A couple of points: The model is only inteseted in the outcome of games from leagues that fit the model this is dynamic - No Italian A or B games at the moment, for example. All selections must have a predictive percentage of at least 50% There also many filters in place which ignore certain fixtures: Like no games are rated that have a cup game coming up within 7 days that kind of thing. Anyway enough rambling, just thought I would add to the debate. Good luck with your own betting. Protop

    Poisson Model

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Anyone got any views on using the poisson model for predicting 1X2 for football matches. Do you think it's a profitable way to go Do you use it yourself How about a modified version All thoughts both positive and negative most welcome

    Football bets

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Okay for the novice football punters amonst us - How about your best piece of football advice before placing a bet. I'll start the ball rolling with - Do not bet on any team who have a cup game coming up within the following seven days - Reason? May be resting players Players not fully commited to league game, trying to avoid injury Current league game not priority Lets hope this throws up some real gems of wisdom Protop

    Probabilistic Prediction of Football Matches - A Discussion

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Mr Hi Guys have read the thread with interest, as I have also produced a model for prediction outcomes 1 X 2. Just a couple of pointers for what they're worth. you talked about the situation when the Home team is favourite and suggested that the next highest probability should be the draw not the away! The way I see it is purely a mathematical one. Lets say a maximum of 6 goals are scored in anyone match. It doesn't matter if there are more the principle remains the same - You could have any of the following results: 1-0,2-0,2-1,3-1,3-2,3-0, 0-1,0-2,1-2,1-3,2-3,0-3 you could also have 0-0,1-1,2-2,3-3. You therefore land up with 6/16 chances for a home win = 37.5% the same for the aways and 25% for the draws. Take in to account Home advantage and you land up with higher percentage of Home wins a lower percentage of away wins and the draws remaining about the same. Just a thought - Don't abandon your ides too early a couple of weeks is nothing.

    Long Term Football Drip Ends - 350 WINS, 1 LOSS

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Long Term Football Drip Scotty Read your thread with interest. Good luck with it seems to be going really well, what worries me is when you do hit a loser not if but when it's going to be pretty painful i guess! Will you have the stomach and enthusiasm to carry on? Hope that day is a long way off though. Best of luck Protop

    System X - Simply The Best

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    system x (simply The Best)

    Cardiff

    Southend

    Backed Home

    1.78

    Colchester

    Leicester

    Backed Home

    1.92

    Stoke

    Wolves

    Backed Home

    2.26

    Blackpool

    Port Vale

    Backed Home

    1.90

    Swindon

    Wrexham

    Backed Home

    1.68

    Aberdeen

    Inverness

    Backed Home

    1.89

    Falkirk

    Dunfermline

    Backed Home

    1.74

    Update L,L,W -1.35pts

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