protop
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Posts posted by protop
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Re: Correct Scores
Thanks alot Uknowsit, certainly a start. Thanks againPlease try http://www.mediafire.com/?tlfa22wc2fcsclc It's quite rough cut but will give you rough bookie figures. For betfair perhaps add 10% -
Hi Guys can anyone point me towards a table that gives correct score prices that correlate to their home / Draw prices. I am looking for a lookup table really, Betfair prices would be the most helful, I know these prices move, but a rough guide would suffice. Many Thanks
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Re: Has anyone here tried "the Underground Punter" betting system? If you do buy any so called systems, look at it as buying an idea or comcept. It may not work directly "Out of the box" but with some thought, it may lead you to exploring avenues you may not otherwise of thought of. It's a bit like buying a book on say, football betting, you may not put everything into practice, but there may be some gems of wisdom within that you can use. Of course, any blackbox system would inevitably fail, if every punter and is wife were on the same selections.
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Re: Strategy that works I thimk DepBoy just about somes it up. There are no long term winning sytems on here, anyone who is winning consistently, doesn't post on here. Look for ideas and things not to do and then go away and develop your own. As Depboy says, it's each man for himself, especially on the exchanges where liquidity can be a problem. Price is everything!
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Re: Regression Graphs Be wary with this type of analysis. I have a database of over 7500 games, each given a rating. Regression analysis for the home teams show a best fit line of 0.9785, for the draws 0.9054 and for the ways 0.9432. This ignores any ratings where there are less than 10 games with such ratings. At this stage I have not optimised the ratings via the formula y = 1.1666x -0.0546 (homes) or for the Aways and draws. If you were to then take any of the ratings and then assume that by backing the so called value bets it would give you an edge, it would not. In fact doing the exact opposite would give you an edge, it would appear from this, that bookmakers odds contain information that your ratings don’t and if your rating appears to be great value it probably isn’t.. I am sure other punters that have created their own ratings have similar findings.
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Re: Roulette
There's a million and one strategies for Roullete - Just not winning ones.There is no strategy for roullete. -
Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System When calculating ROI when laying you should be using the liability amount not the stake to acheive your ROI figures. Just a thought, good luck with it anyway!
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Re: What percentages for different factors? The way I see this argument is like this. First of all it is impossible, to put an exact probability on the outcome of an event such as football as it is not quantifiable. It is just an opinion, odds makers offer opinions. If we new the exact probabilities, odds would remain static and they would all offer the same? As for the value concept, to come out ahead in this game, you don’t need value in your bets if you can find 100% winners, for the rest of us there has to be value in the bet. Value can be found in one of two ways; Trying to find value in each individual, outcome or by backing several selections that overall show a profit; value in there some where, but not sure where the value lies. The bookmakers basically operate the second principle, they don’t sweat on assuming they have priced every result to have a negative outcome, but know that overall they make a profit. Take this scenario; I toss a fair coin. On one outcome I pay 2.5 on the other outcome I pay 1.66. A 100% book. However you don’t know in advance what outcome pays what, but let’s say I write it down before each spin of the coin. Would you make a profit long term? No, but there is value each and every time on one of the outcomes
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Re: Profitable Betting Well it seem so far 4 people are managing a ROI of greater than 10%. well done you guys. A pound profit in three months equates to £4 a year. Not the road to riches but a profit is a profit as they say!
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Re: Profitable Betting First of all if you were making decent money from your betting, you would have your bets severely restricted by the bookmakers, that means you would have to eventually move onto the exchanges. On the exchanges it is every man for himself. You want the best price with the liquidity that goes with that price. Share a successful strategy on a forum, bang goes the liquidity and bang goes your profitable system. shooting the golden goose springs to mind. How come you rarely bet and yet contribute to a gambling forum and one of the better contributors at that. I agree that the the postings on here, don't worry the bookmakers prices in the slightest.
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Re: Profitable Betting Hi Grex You are certainly not a pain in the butt, and yes you are right some people may well lie, but the only people they'd be kidding are themselves. What made be ask the question was that somebody recently posted a question about paid tipping services and if anyone used them. He was politely told he doesn't need tipping services as all the best tipsters are right here on PL. So my assumption was that profiting from betting was well within the forum readers remit as all the answers are on here somewhere? Bit like saying all the winners are in the racing post as indeed they are! By the way, a lot of your contributions seem well thought out are you not profiting from your own system selections? Me thinks that anybody that did have a profitable angle long term would not be posting it on here.
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Re: Profitable Betting You're right Grex, It does only take into account Winners and the reason being, this is the only group I am interested in! Although granted it is looking like a very small group so far.
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Re: Profitable Betting So that's 15 views so far and no one's beating the book.
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How many Punters Lounge forum members actually show a profit from their betting? Lets say over the last six months?
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Re: A beginners journey... Hi Andrew I would certainly be interested in joining a small elite group of like minded punters such as yourself, in regard to building some football analysis software. Protop
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Re: Why does roulette exist if you cant beat it Do you think that the majority of punters would still lose long term if they removed the Zeroes and made the game a fair one. I believe they would, what do you think?
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Re: Staking systems Okay, Can a staking system [Money Management System] Prevent bigger losses than a system that loses at level stakes. the point I am trying to make here is,what staking systems are deemed to be the most useful as there must be degrees of effectiveness and what numbers do punters consider when measuring how effective they are?
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Re: Staking systems Thanks for the link, but I was thinking along the lines of money management that actually benefits the punter, not depletes him of his bankroll in double quick time. Suppose you could use it as an example of how no to bet, we'll put it into the "Bad Staking Systems" category. Unless of course someone knows better!
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Re: Staking systems
Sorry Datapunter Having a senior moment. the first sequence you gave would have left you down 6 Points. so average is equal to 1.25ptswell if you stuck to one points. The first would show zero gain. The second would show +4 Points and the third would also show +4 points So across all four sequences the average(mean) would be +3, +0, +4, +4, which I make 11 Points divided by 4 gives an average of 2.75 points per sequence. Not quite sure what the point was? -
Re: Staking systems Shame. as an experienced punter, I thought I might learn something new? Anyone else with some thoughts on the utopia of staking systems
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Re: Staking systems well if you stuck to one points. The first would show zero gain. The second would show +4 Points and the third would also show +4 points So across all four sequences the average(mean) would be +3, +0, +4, +4, which I make 11 Points divided by 4 gives an average of 2.75 points per sequence. Not quite sure what the point was?
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Re: Staking systems Surprised there has not been more interest in this subject as I am sure staking systems and hence money management are crucial to one's success. Take this series that pays even money; WLWLWLWL 4 wins 4 losses Zero gain to level stakes. But increase by one point after a loss and decrease by one point after a win and you get + 3 points from a zero expectation game. So it is not the fact that it is a zero sum game that stops you making a profit it is simply the way the sequence of results presents itself. So what makes a good staking system and what makes a bad one?
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Can a staking system turn a break even sequence of events, in money terms into one that shows a profit. If so what is the best staking system out there and what is the criteria for judging it? Any thoughts
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Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts)
Sure' date=' I assume you you are referring to the X & Y terms of the regression. The X term was the (ELO algorithm) rating difference between the two competing teams and the Y term was the observed outcome as a % (win, loose, draw). 27,000 results were grouped into 150 data points that were used in the plot.[/quote'] Hi Thanks for your reply. When you say that you have 150 data points, I assume they range from say a high negative number to say a high positive number, -75 to 75 for example. Did you then apply these to your R squared formula to get the appropriate probability. If so how many results have you applied the optimised ratings against and do they continue to perform as expected. It is an area of interest of mine. Thanks Protop
Recovery Staking System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Hi i know most serious punters tend to steer clear of recovery staking methods but just want to know your thoughts on this plan I am working on. I am trying to get the best possible price for each bet I place and as you know this is not as easy as it may appear, for a variety of reasons, the main one being that bookmakers don't entertain long term winners. This can leave you in a situation when the best price on offer is not actually available to you! False advertising if ever I saw it. So how about assuming that you got that price and adjust the staking on the next bets to make up the shortfall in winnings, which basically means putting the money on the exchanges where at least you are welcome. Has anybody developed a staking plan of a similar nature or even a piece of software or a spreadsheet. It does mean increasing stakes a litlle, just wondered if anybody else had given this any thought