liveforever31
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Posts posted by liveforever31
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England Cracking bet that Kev, I couldn't find it earlier though :( Anyway, here are my early doings: 4pts - Aus v Eng 2nd Test - Draw @ 6/4 (Bet365) I talked a bit about the nature of the Adaleide ground in my ante-post bet, but to summarise again: should be one of the slower, batter-friendly pitches in the series. England are scorched, and will either show a statement of intent in keeping with their spirit over the past few years, or fold again. I'm going to back them to get a score on. The problem will be, I fully expect the Aussies too as well! Might have a bit more in-play, but not a great deal stood out as value for me. We perhaps need to see what England turns up and how they react before we can work out how to punt more for the rest of the series, and also to see if Australia can back up their first performance. A mainly watching brief at the moment I'd say.
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England I'm not sure what your question is here. I think are you asking why were England players out caught in the 2nd innings when they should have been trying to just stay in? If so, some players are just naturally attacking, even in the test arena (such as Pietersen, Prior) and their best form of defence is attack. If they try and just grind out, they succumb to pressure and get out, its like a release valve. Other's mis-time shots and hence shots become airborne instead of scooting along the floor. Also, there was little chance England could just defend, you have to still try and attack in some way even in those situations. I mean this in the sincerest way mate, but I'd consider if betting significant sums on cricket with such a lack of knowledge of the game is such a good idea at the moment. Especially in such a tight and volatile series as this.
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England England's batting display was so insipid it would suggest they would struggle to bat out the 2 days needed to draw the match, hence the short Australia price. Australia only need another 150 to be putting it beyond reach of England chasing a total down (it would be hard to chase down 375+ in any 4th innings in cricket). So Australia are so short because they are going to have probably 2 and a bit days to take 10 wickets, against an England wildly out of batting form. That's not to say England can't bat out, but just a bit of explanation for you.
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England Sorry for the long reply: It has been an easy pitch to bat on, but that doesn't mean runs are guaranteed. The pressure of a first Ashes match, tensions carrying over from the summer, an iffy prep by way of warm-up games either rained off or against crap opposition, all variables that have played out here. The wickets weren't due to the pitch, but either shocking shot selection, or wilting in the face of intimidatory bowling (90+mph short balls). These things happen in cricket. England have not batted well as a team for a long time now. The tricky betting issue is, the ability is there, its just for whatever reason lots of experienced batsmen are going through ruts at the same time (Cook, Trott, Prior). To try and answer your question, England lost wickets in a quick heap because they, in an effort to regroup after losing wickets of Cook, Trott and Pietersen, stopped looking to score runs. Some pundits have suggested this is possibly down to Carberry's lack of experience at test level, just letting the spin bowler Lyon bowl at him. This then allows bowlers to develop rhythm, confidence and pressure. Once England lost Bell cheaply, the Aussie's were fired up, and they had Johnson bowling very aggressive, attacking short bowling. England have not faced this for a long time, the pitches in Aus are faster and bouncier than England. Subsequently, they wilted under the combination of Lyon building pressure, Johnson bowling rapid aggressive bouncers, and the Aussie crowd as fervent as heard for a long time. Finally, I wouldn't say it is fair asking people how you should bet now to recoup losses. People post on here with their tips and reasonings in good faith, but nobody has professed to tip up sure things, and to go big on any sport you don't profess to have a knowledge of is risky as you have limited knowledge how to react in-play if needed. Yesterday was a freak day really, its rare in top level test cricket for collapses of that magnitude to happen, but if there is one environment they can proffer in, its the first day of an Ashes series when tensions, nerves and adrenaline are high.
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England Just had a look at the player performance market, a couple stand out to me as small bets: 2pts - J. Root's Performance - Over 70.5pts @ 5/6 (Paddy Power) I like this bet for a few reasons. Root will more than likely be back down at 6, and will be hoping to get in to bat when the bowlers are more tired, or the ball is old and not misbehaving. There is the risk of having to see the 2nd (or 3rd...) new ball off though. However, Root offsets this with his dynamism in the field, where he is always carrying potential for catches due to his athleticism in the field and Cook getting him in catching positions. Also, Root may have to turn his arm over at some point, and as he proved in the summer, he has a knack of picking up the odd wicket. I see Root as a value three-pronged play to try and get 71 points or more. 1pt - B. Haddin's Performance - Over 87.5pts @ 5/6 (Bet365) See a touch of value here too. Paddy's have the line at 103.5. At 10pts a catch, you'd be hoping Haddin can snare at least 40 or 50 points here. He's no mug with the bat, and I'd be fancying him to conjure up at least 40 runs between the innings. If he gets in during a lull in bowling activity, he is the sort of batsman to wrack up quick runs.
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England Ante-Post: 4pts - Aus vs Eng Correct Series Score - 2-1 England @ 8/1 (Stan James, Laddies) Fancying quite a close affair this winter. As above, I feel the first test will be a draw, and England's tentative record at Adaleide makes me think a draw there could be on the cards too (especially with the drop-in pitches they now have there suggesting runs, runs, runs are the order of the day). Our dismal record at the Gabba (only 1 win from 12 visits) is a place I expect us to be beaten (especially if Mitchell Johnson shows any sort of form in tests 1 and 2, and Harris is still fit). Would leave us having to go to Sydney and Melbourne needing at least a win to retain, but this is where I think we can strike. We have won 20 out of 54 visits to the MCG and 22 out of 54 to the SCG, so we have slightly better strike rates here. With the Aussies in a predicted 1-0 lead by myself, this is where the pressure on an Aussie team not used to winning could start to show. England have a team of hardened battlers who can eke out results when needed. They will say that there is stacks of improvement to be had from the summer, and they will need to get the finger out with the bat. But people like Trott, Cook and KP have happy memories of batting in Aus, Bell is in cracking shape in 2013, and Root and Carberry should enjoy the conditions too. I'd expect these to put some considerable pressure on the Aussies in the last two tests if needed, and not go down without a fight. I was considering 1-1 as the correct score and at 24/1 I may have a little cover bet, but I think this could be the last Ashes hurrah of an aging England side who will be able to pitch their winning, dogged mentality, up against an Aussie side not used to the prospect of winning and leading, which could play an awful lot come the pressure cooker of the SCG 5th test.
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Re: The Ashes - Australia vs England Surprised there isn't much activity in here, expected quite a lot of ante-post reading to have to catch up on just a couple of days before the series starts! I'll perhaps come back with some analysis for some of mine later, but got an early bet for the first test. 3pts - Aus v Eng 1st Test Result - DRAW @ 11/5 (Boyles, Stan James) Nothing too adventurous, but expect there to be a tight, perhaps tentative start from both sides at the Gabba. Historically its not England's favourite hunting ground (P 19, Won 4 Lost 10, no win here for us since 1986). The Aussies meanwhile rather enjoy it here unsurprisingly (P 55, Won 33, Lost 8, Tied 1). England's 1st innings there in 2010 of 260ao cost us a chance of winning that test, but the second innings from us of 517/1 dec showed what was capable. Strikes me as a place that, if needed, we could bat long and for the draw (likewise the same for the Aussies). It's not notoriously a spinner's wicket, which could lessen Swann's impact, and put an awful lot of pressure on Anderson and Broad, with the 3rd seamer (whoever it may be) also not looking confident at the moment. Considering the barrage Broad will get, it might be a test he ends up feeling around in, just setting himself up the series and getting used to the unprecedented abuse he will get, leaving Anderson with an awful lot to do. The Aussies (for all their bluster) are still also having their own issues to deal with (how fit are Watson & Clarke, will Bailey translate his form to tests, will Smith keep up his summer form, when will Harris' legs fall off, which Mitchell Johnson will show up) so it seems set that the first game may well be a game of England just sizing up the slightly different Aussie side from which they faced this summer, and make sure they set the series up by not losing at a place that is historically difficult for touring sides to win. With England's own selection issues (Prior, 3rd seamer) we don't scream out as a side who are fully primed ready to hit the Aussies, so as is our way under Flower and Cook, I think it will be sensible, pragmatic cricket to start up. Add this to the fact CA will be preparing pitches to last 5-days, the draw seems a sensible play.
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Re: Form study & criteria Just been getting into golf betting recently, found this page very useful. Would have loved to have looked at what Golf Observer had to offer, but seems they are migrating their site at the moment. Will consider it when its seemingly back up and running. With golf, what is intriguing me is that certain players have the game for certain types of courses. Nothing new here, but that is the tactic I am going to use. Now, one website I have seen has been doing trends previews of tournaments, saying past winners were ranked in top 60 for GIR, top 60 for driving accuracy etc. What I want to know, is where they get their information from really! Don't know if it is against any forum rules, but it is the guys over at Betting Bias, and an example of one of their previews is http://bettingbias.com/news/golf/wells-fargo-golf-trends (Please delete or edit out if this does go against any rules, apologies in advance). How are they finding out where previous winners were ranked in the various different rankings, at the time of their victories? If anyone can help, it will be greatly appreciated. I'm starting to collect data from now onwards myself, but this is no good for another 5 years at least :lol
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Re: The US Masters 2013 - April 11/April 14 My picks for the title have generally been mentioned elsewhere, and they are picked on basis of long drivers, good scoring average, made cut last year, and various other trends already stated. Left me with Rose (23/1), Schwartzel (24/1), Oosthiuezen (37/1), Bubba (45/1), Garcia (54/1). Took win prices on Betfair, and all 2.5pt win. Anyway, my main post is value punts at the leader after round 1 market. Criteria was an early-ish tee time, good 'round 1 scoring average', 'scoring average', and 'driving distance'. 0.5pt e/w Rickie Fowler - 50/1 Will Hill 15:56 tee time, ranked 46 for round 1 scoring average, 13 for scoring average overall, and drives OK at 128 in PGA tour ranking. Always struck me as one who likes to get out the blocks early. He also played an audacious trick shot off the water at the par 3 yesterday, which perhaps while not getting over-excited with, suggests his confidence is certainly high. Been steady, if not spectacular, the past two years here, but he clearly has the ability to put a score up. 0.5pt e/w Russell Henley - 100/1 Betfred 13:11 tee time, ranked 13 for 1st round scoring average, 34 overall, and 57 driving distance. Not a player I know a great deal about, but his stats tick a lot of the boxes I was looking for, and a lovely price. His first time here, but has been impressing this year at the Sony Open, breaking the scoring record by 4 shots (!), so perhaps he'll have the adrenalin running to go out there a put a score up first time here, but perhaps not sustain over the weekend as tiredness and lack of experience kick in. 0.5pt e/w John Senden - 150/1 BetVictor 15:12 tee time, ranked 62 for 1st round scoring average, 66 overall, and 91 driving distance. Figures don't scream winner, but perhaps they won't for a 150/1 shot. He just looks a steady option to me, who if he pulls it together, then may fancy being at the right end of the leaderboard. He doesn't have a great Masters record (he's never made the cut!!!) but perhaps on the flip side, he has plenty of experience of playing here. 0.5pt e/w Kevin Na - 175/1 BetVictor 13:22 tee time, ranked 58 for 1st round scoring average, 56 overall, and 184 driving distance. Again, not as impressive figures as for Fowler, but I think that's a juicy price. What swung it for me was a cracking tee time, and he putts well, so again its another that if he gets out the blocks, he has the ability to set a good score. I have a bit of a soft spot for Na too, so perhaps a bit 'hunch-y' this bet. Did finish T12 here last year though, so clearly has some ability to do well round this course. Probably all come nowhere near, but for small stakes and a firm interest in R1, why not!? Good luck all.
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Re: Indian Premier League 2013 Had a look at the pre-tournament markets, couple seem to stand out: Top Batsman Michael Hussey - 20/1 - 1pt e/w (1/4 1-5) @betvictor Shane Watson - 33/1 - 1pt e/w (1/4 1-5) @coral Trying to find some value elsewhere, as although Gayle is mightily impressive, he's not my idea of a bet at 3s or 4s. Last year Hussey scored an impressive 261 in 8 innings. We can't say for certain, but had he played the whole campaign, his form suggested he would have been in the top 4/5 runscorers. I like this bet this time round as he is available for all the campaign, and for a side I expect to go far (CSK). He looks like their star overseas batsman, so I'd imagine he will get a nice spot in the top 4. The year before he got just shy of 500 with a full campaign, and finished top 5. So looks a good e/w bet. My second pick is another Aussie in Watson. An impressive short campaign last season of 255 in just 7 games, he's another one who will hope a full campaign this time will push him towards the 500 mark. He's a consistent player, and I like at least one selection to be an opener, as obviously they get the chance to score the really big knocks this affords. Its a real shameDhawan has picked up an injury that will rule him out of the first few games, as he looked a good bet with the confidence of his recent knock, and previous IPL form. Top Bowler Dale Steyn - 14/1 - 1pt e/w (1/4 1-4) @paddypower Ravi Jadeja - 66/1 - 0.5pt e/w (1/4 1-4) @paddypower Ben Hilfenhaus - 100/1 - 0.5pt e/w (1/4 1-4) @paddypower Steyn may not be the most inventive of selections, but he's a pure wicket-taker. 18 wickets from just 12 matches last season, and good records the previous years (around the 15 mark). This won't be enough to win it for him, but an improvement on last years 18 may just do so. Steyn's pace always poses a threat though, and he doesn't particularly rely on conditions as some other bowlers do, so happy to take 14s on him. Hilfenhaus has to be punted at this price for me. Last season he clocked 14 wickets in just 9 matches. Perhaps his style of bowling encourages wickets as players feel they can get after him, but he is deceptive and very under-rated. If he can get a longer campaign, he'll hope to push towards the 20 mark, which will put him right in contention for an e/w payout. Jadeja should also give a good account for himself. He is in form, taking a nice 24 wickets in the recent series with Australia. He only got low teens last season, but I feel 66s may be over-looking him slightly, and if he can continue his good form on, he could be in with a squeak. Overall Winner I think this market doesn't represent much value for me at present. I fancy Mumbai Indians, Chennai Super Kings and Royal Challengers Bangalore, but of course these three are all at the front of the market. Indeed the top 5 in the market are not much different in price, varying from 4/1 to 11/2. It's not something I fancy at the moment, but of course it could change later on if a team has a bad start etc etc.
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Re: League 1 6th November Just as a note of caution with the Swindon - Sheff Utd game. This will be the first time Paulo Di Canio has come up against Danny Wilson since they were at SWFC together at the time of the Alcock incident. Di Canio is, shall we say politely, not Wilson's biggest fan (a cursory look at his autobiography shows this) and will no doubt want to get one over on one of the individuals who mistreated him so badly at SWFC. Despite Swindon's patch form of late, Di Canio seems to be able to motivate well for the big games, and on a personal level this will be up there for him tonight. Also, United are not a good side at all. As Jase says, if someone gets at them, and gets stuck into them, they will get a right going over sooner rather than later. The quality of the top end of League 1 is a lot poorer than it was last season for sure. No bet for me, and excuse the really awful cliche, but expect fireworks.
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Re: ICC World T20 2012 Have been mulling over whether to play Chris Gayle player performance 41pts - over 5/6 (bet365). Bit tricky seeing as Windies have yet to complete a game in this T20WC, so its hard to gauge whether Gayle will be used as a bowler. But he bowled last game and got 2 wickets, yet he was unused in the first match. We all know about his prowess with the bat, but if we add in his potential to take a wicket or two, and also a very good catcher, then it seems we would have a lot of options going for us to cover the 41. My only worry is whether the Windies will deploy him as a bowler, or not bother as in the first match. Bit of a gamble, but reckon its worth a bet, as even if he doesn't bowl, he will hopefully still give the bet a run for the money with the bat.
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Re: England > Weekend > League 1 > 27 August Can't argue with what has already been written about Wednesday; we look a different team at home, and while Scunthorpe may provide the first real test, I think at anything around evens we are a value bet. After my success with my first goal scorer bet for the first game against Rochdale, I'm backing a similar bet today for identical reasons. First Goalscorer - Reda Johnson 28/1 @ Coral - 0.5pt Anytime Goalscorer - Reda Johnson 9/1 @ Coral - 1pt Simply, I feel this price for a man who is very dangerous from set pieces (something Megson is building our team around). Julian Bennett is providing long throws, so this is another area for Johnson to attack in as well as corners. Johnson had a perfectly legitimate goal at Bury ruled out for going within 10 yards of the keeper, and is looking menacing when given the chance to attack the ball in the air. The odds suggest it won't happen, but 9/1 anytime is simply too high to turn down, and other bookies agree with him being as low as 5/1 in places. Sorry for the short explanation, just didn't want to repeat my post from the first game of the season and bore you all, as it is essentially the same reasoning! Good luck all.
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Re: England: League One Aug 6
It did slip my mind that we had got Danny Baath back too, my bad! However this adds further weight to my under 2.5 bet, because he was a rock last season. I do agree, the price on the Wednesday win could look ridiculous value come 5pm, but you just never know what to expect from Wednesday the first game of a new season. Expectations are always high and who knows what will happen, I'm sure you remember the destruction of Burnley a few seasons ago, but also that humbling defeat to Colchester the first time we came down. Thats why I've erred on the side of caution and left us alone this week, but the more I look at the price the more I want to get involved.Good write ups so far, its clear there's a wealth of knowledge from people who aren't too bad at articulating it, so hopefully this season we'll be able to start something good going. My only concern with the other Wednesday fans' bets (hiya mate!) is that R. Johnson is probably 4th choice centre half and I doubt will play in this fixture. In team news for Rochdale, new manager Steve Eyre will be without winger Simon Hackney who is definitely out for the remainder of this month. Chris O'Grady will have a fitness test on the morning of the match. Jake Kean has just signed on loan from Blackburn and will start as their 'keeper. I just have a feeling that I couldn't be backing any team where the manager hasn't been in place long, have looked shocking in pre-season and are playing with a 'keeper who has had only 2-3 days to get to know the centre halves. The fact that this team play my team is irrelevant, I feel. Hopefully the 1.91 will prove to be value that we won't see much more of at Hillsborough this season. -
Re: England: League One Aug 6 Never easy betting at the start of the season, but think there is some value in the Sheff Wed v Rochdale match. 5pts - Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 10/11 (Will Hill) A few reasons for this. 1) We (Wednesday) are lacking our main attacking threat. Jermaine Johnson is injured, meaning we have a severe lack of pace on our wings (likely to play Chris Sedgwick and a centre midfielder out wide). He has been the only player looking like making things happen in the final third for a long time for us now, and is a big miss. 2) Our two strikers at the club are in question. Clinton Morrison got a very poor return last season, and Gary Madine (according to Facebook stalkers) has posted that he is unhappy in Sheffield and feels like he has gone backwards since coming here!! How true I dont know, but our forward line doesn't scream confidence. 3) Gary Megson has been in the media today talking about the importance of clean sheets, saying how when he got WBA promoted, they kept 27 clean sheets, or something along those lines. Our main additions this summer have been Julian Bennett (filling the problem left back spot), Jose Semedo (defensive midfielder), retaining the impressive Lewis Buxton despite alleged Championship interest, and signing towering centre half Rob Jones. It is clear Megson is going to make us hard to break down first and foremost, creating a strong spine before worrying about anything else. 4) Our pre-season 'real' games (bar the 'academy' getting violated at Alfreton etc) have been tight affairs with few goals. I don't like looking into pre-season friendlies too much, but the suggestions so far in the games played (1-1 vs Leeds, 0-0 vs Stoke) suggest keeping it tight, and not much attacking vigour. 5) Rochdale are no mugs. They played us off the park at Spotland last season, and Megson will be well aware of this. He will not want a repeat, and again this all adds to the theory we are going to be hard to break down. 0.5pt e/w - Rob Jones 1st Goal Scorer @ 25/1 (General) 0.5pt e/w - Reda Johnson 1st Goal Scorer @ 33/1 (BlueSQ, Will Hill) One area we have been at pains to improve is our set pieces. In what I expect to be a tight affair, any deciding goals could well be from set pieces, an area we have been working hard on in pre season by all reports. Both these centre halves are threats from corners, Reda Johnson especially being a 'unit' and notching several times last season. The only possible downside here is Megson may prefer Mark Beevers, but if Johnson starts, 33/1 is great value. Rob Jones also proved handy from corners last season, and as captain should be nailed on to start (barring any injury concerns). Certainly worth getting involved in small stakes for me here, as I really think we are going to turn the screw on set pieces this season with the way Megson wants us to play. Good luck folks, and here's to another successful season on PL.
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Re: Cricket: ICC World Cup 2011 1pt E/W - Shane Watson - World Cup Top Runscorer @ 18/1 (Stan James 1-5 1/4) A tricky market no doubt, and there are also doubts about Australia's strength. However, they have some momentum (which while I totally dismiss in Test cricket, I feel form is key to the ODI arena due to players needing to be on top of their game due to the limited length of play; there is no time or room for playing ones self in). He has been in pretty consistent form all winter, regularly clocking up 50s in all formats, and hitting devestating larger knocks in the ODIs vs England. We know he will get the chance to score the runs as he will open, and he has been in pretty decent form with the bat for a long time now. With no M. Hussey, Australia will be looking to Watson even more now for the runs. I'll be looking for a couple of other plays here before the WC starts, but Watson seems a decent price for someone with the profile to win this market, and the form and desire to go with it. He has the ability to clock up the big ODI scores that transform games, and he'll have the chance to butcher pretty much all attacks in Group A bar the tricky Sri Lankans. I have also followed with the Sri Lanka to win WC bet, as the mix of a top quality team and sub-continent knowledge will prove more than useful come the middle of the WC when other teams start to struggle.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs England - 2xT20s & ODI series Correction, the above Yardy price is 5/1 @ Will Hill. Good luck all.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs England - 2xT20s & ODI series :) Cheers folks, nice to see one drop in now and then! If bookies are going to continue to take on Eoin Morgan, then I'm more than happy to keep backing him at value prices, he is a one-day/T20 wizard! Well done to everyone so far, see if we can continue the success Friday. Sadly I might not have access to a computer before the game (graduation tomorrow, then mammoth ale-up), so after having a look now, can only see one to tempt me. 1 pt - Michael Yardy Top England Bowler (2nd T20) - 9/2 @ Will Hill The commentators noted it numerous times, but many people struggle to play Yardy as they play him like a left-arm spinner, which he is far from with his pace and angles. You try to cut him at your peril, and his changes of pace certainly means he ties batsmen down, which also helps to build the pressure. He was the best bowler for us today I thought, and seems to ask the most questions of a sometimes puzzled Australian batting line up, so I will take a little risk on him to repeat his feat of today and take the most wickets for us on Friday.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs England - 2xT20s & ODI series 2pts - England Win 1st T20 @ 21/20 Betfred Purely a value bet, but I don't feel that we should be this long. T20 is very topsy turvy, so I'm keeping stakes low as all it needs is a bad half hour and bets are out the window. But England will be very strong (Bell, Trott, Tremlett in fine form from the Ashes, Yardy showing excellent control in the PMXI game, Morgan returning, Swann etc...) and lets not forget are the reigning T20 champions and demolished the Aussies in the World Cup. I appreciate we are on the Aussies turf, they are wounded and will be looking for a reply, but if England turn up then we should be able to come out on top. There is a lot of inexperience in this Aussie side, and whereas they may not be as bad as their Test side, they still aren't unbeatable here. 1pt - Top Aussie Bat - Cameron White @ 13/2 Boylesports 1pt - Top England Bat - Eoin Morgan @ 13/2 PaddyPower I'm going to do a write up for both of these at once, as I feel similar reasoning goes for both. With T20, there is always that chance that an opening bowler will rip through a top order; Australia have that capability with Tait and Lee, England with Tremlett and Shazahd. Many a time the scores in T20 come from the middle order, with the license to either tee off, or the time to build an innings due to higher order failures. White and Morgan are both high scoring batsmen, both with the ability to score quickly and dig their teams out of trouble. They are both proven in this format too. I think they are both overpriced at 13/2, and represents better value in a tricky market due to the swings of T20 cricket.
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Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 1pt - Top Aussie Batsman (1st Inns) - Khawaja @ 11/2 PaddyPower Somewhere in this dreadful Ashes series for the Aussies, a chink of light has to emerge for them. Their last hopes seemingly rest on debutants Beer of Khawaja giving them something to shout about. Beer is not there on merit, in fact I'm fairly sure he is only there to cheese Hauritz off who must be playing a game of hide the wicket with one of the selectors' wives not to be getting a look in considering the standard of spin in Australia. However, Khawaja perhaps should have been selected sooner, and was only being kept out due to the fact the man he should replace was the Australian captain. He has regularly scored big runs in the Shield matches (698 last summer), and average above 50 in first class cricket. This is no guarantee for success, but he seems a very driven character, and technically more complete than other Aussie youngsters Smith and Hughes. At 11/2 I think he has a very good chance of coming in and making a mark, as he is no mug and knows that if he takes his chance here then he is cementing his place in the reformation of Australian cricket. Also, whereas England have worked out how to get the other Aussie batsmen out this series, they may find it harder having to work away at a new target who isn't as attacking and is looking to score big 100s. 0.5pts - Top England Batsman (1st Inns) - Bell @ 13/2 Bet365 More a value pick than anything, but I think 13/2 is a touch overpriced. I have serious reservations about the Aussie attack, which could mean the top order batsmen have the chance to score big runs, however on the flip side if they do weasel out some early wickets it should mean Bell has nothing to fear coming in lower down. Not one to go mad on, but no other prices really appeal to me here, so will probably have a small tickle on this. 2pts - Khawaja 1st Inns Runs Over 26.5 @ 4/5 PaddyPower I have already explained my backing of this guy earlier in the post, and this bet was also talked about in todays RP, but I really fancy it myself too. If he wants to stamp his mark on the Aussie team, he will be looking to bat responsibly and be an anchor for the side, much like Trott is for us. I can't see him playing stupid risky attacking shots, but he won't shirk away if the ball needs putting away. To get to 27 runs should be within his reach with the levels of application he possesses. 5pts - England win 5th Test (DRAW NO BET) @ 8/13 Bet365 I am slightly worried about the weather, and if Hussey rediscovers his touch, and Watson and Khawaja bat responsibly, then there could be potential from the Aussies to provide some resistance in stopping us winning. If the game is not affected by the weather, England win, because the Aussie bowling attack really is woeful here, and they will all be praying Johnson turns up otherwise it could be another embarressment. Siddle is honest enough, but has looked very mediocre half the series and there is the risk he may repeat it here, Hilfenhaus and his military medium isn't gaining any value in these conditions, Smith is a long way of the finished spin product, and there are huge question marks hanging over the inexperienced Beer (who can't be as 'highly regarded' as the woeful Doherty was as he was selected before him, so who knows what is turning up here). England on the otherhand need to win to make history as a WINNING Ashes side in Australia, and I don't see us possessing characters that will shirk this anymore. The weather does worry me though, which is why I will take the safe route and take DNB. I really can't see how the Aussies can win this though, unless Johnson single handedly rips through us twice, but even this will be harder without the impressive Harris applying pressure from the other end.
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Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 It isn't on oddschecker now so looks like Hills have pulled it, sorry I didn't get my write up on earlier to alert the value. As for the 7/4, well I do think Swann will be the top wicket taker in the second innings, so in that sense it should still be a good bet!! However, on the flip side, Tremlett has looked very threatening these past two tests, Jimmy was flawless, and Bresnan if it swings will be a threat again. In that sense, if the opening bowlers take out the first 3/4 wickets quickly, I guess that will make it harder for Swann to top this market. I made the bet because of the 9/4 on offer as I thought it was priced up wrong, and that I actually thought Swann should have been the favourite, however if he was favourite I'm not sure whether I would want to get involved due to the potential threat of our other bowlers at bigger prices (if that makes any sort of sense!!!). Personally, I wouldn't be backing him at 7/4, but I do think he is the strongest candidate to win the market. Not much help I know, but if you do get involved in the bet I still think you'll be in with a great shout, just not sure whether 7/4 is good value considering the performances of our other bowlers. Don't let me put you off backing it though, because I bleeding have backed it (albeit at a higher value).
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Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Don't know if the market is still there, but at Will Hill that bet is 9/4, just haven't had time to do my write up yet, so it is below. 2pts - England Top Bowler (2nd Inns) - Swann @ 9/4 Will Hill England will have lots of runs to play with, so after the new ball expect attacking fields for Swann, and the fast bowlers rotating from the other end. Warne reckons the pitch will spin, so this coupled with the attack Swann will be able to bring to the Aussies should make him a prime candidate for top bowler. It all depends on if the Aussies actually decide to offer some resistance to the new ball this time around, which I think they will as they cannot afford to let a repeat of the 1st innings to happen for the sake of many of their careers.
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Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 0.5 pts - England Top Bat (1st Inns) - Pietersen @ 12/1 (Will Hill) At that price, I have to have a little nibble or I will be kicking myself if it comes in. There is every chance in the world that Cook or Strauss will go on and make the massive century that secures them this market, but I always fear the wounded Aussie animal. They will have had a right royal erm... shoeing for want of more aggressive language, and it wouldn't suprise me if they come out all guns blazing, snarling away and really trying to apply the early pressure. The Ashes could almost be decided in the first morning session, the Aussies simply cannot afford to let our openers get away. So I would be in no way suprised to see them sneak a couple of wickets out through nothing else but due to the fact they know they have to. However, this is all well and good, but this game seems almost set up for KP's ego, as I've already said he will love the fact that the Aussies are on the ropes and will be out to get him, and that 80-90,000 Aussie fans will be baying for his blood. I'm not going mad with the stakes, but it seems a tempting price for a man who could quite easily score another double-ton if he gets in and bats with the same mix of patience and aggression as he did in the 2nd test. I seem to have called Johnson's impact on the game right, and again who knows what he will bring to the game on day 2, but if he is ineffective again, then KP only has to worry about seeing Harris off to set himself up for another biggie.
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Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Top Australian Batsman (1st Inns) - Hussey @ 9/2 Will Hill - 2pts A very generous price for the man in form, so not much of an explanation needed really. Question marks loom over Hughes, Ponting, Clarke and Smith, and while all could well easily top score, all could quite easily go cheaply. Hussey hasn't looked like getting out cheaply all series, and I am hoping he does today, but if not then at least I have this cover at a very nice price. Top Australian Bowler (1st Inns) - Harris @ 3/1 Betfred - 3pts I'm sitting myself in the camp that says Johnson's performance in the last test was the exception, and in less bowler friendly conditions away from the breeze of Perth, he may find his late movement more tricky to obtain, thus making his bowling very much less of a threat. Harris has been consistent all series, and 3/1 is very nice for him to get most wickets. Again, no suprise if Johnson does turn up and continue his form, but at 3/1 I'm willing to oppose and take Harris, who has been by far and away the Australian's most lethal bowler. Top England Bowler (1st Inns) - Tremlett @ 7/2 Betfred - 0.5pts Feel he was the pick of our bowlers at Perth, but keeping stakes low as there may not be as much bounce here for this test. However, he always looked threatening, and I think he will back himself to see off Hughes to get him rolling, and if Jimmy struggles with his niggle and Swann is continued to be nullified by the pitch, then Tremlett seems a good choice at 7/2. England win 4th Test - 5/4 (DRAW NO BET) @ Sportingbet - 4pts Could end up with massive egg on my face here, but I really think Perth will serve as a wake up call to England, and whereas the batting of both teams is fairly even, England are streets ahead IF Johnson returns to his former self. Johnson decides the game, it is as simple as that, but from all my time watching him play against England, he has never produced any sort of consistency, and he notoriously does well at Perth where the ball moves about a bit more. The 3rd test will have toughened England up, and I think they will all now recognise the value of their wicket a bit more. If we were to drop Collingwood and bring a fifth bowler in, this would be a max bet, but I think that is our weak link (cue double-ton) and our stubborness in not moving Bell up the order could cost us. However, I really feel we have the edge over them playing wise, and this isn't the England of old that would go cowering and running for cover. KP will love that 90,000 are baying for his blood, and the Aussies have given all our bowlers the ammo they need with their words about them the past week. Make no mistake, the Aussies are still scared, thats why Siddle and Watson are running their mouths off to try and distrupt us, but I think Flower and Strauss are too clever to let this affect us. Please England, don't let me down here. As Holding said on the Will Hill podcast, in cricket momentum means very little in the match result, as if it did England would have won the series already. We are back to square one, and the better side at the end of the day is England. 5/4 DNB seems nice enough to get involved in.
ICC World T20 2014
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Re: ICC World T20 2014 Agreed on the Marlon Samuels bet, 50/1 is a fantastic price for someone that carries a lot of the Windies scoring responsibility after the explosives of Gayle. Finished 3rd top run scorer in last T20 WC in Sri Lanka, so the big occasions clearly don't rattle him. Great value. I also like Brendon McCullum at 33/1 (PP - EW 1-4 1/4). He got 221 runs in just 5 matches in the last T20 WC in Sri Lanka, which is similar-ish conditions, so no problem there. He finished 5th then, and the guys above him played 2 extra games (apart from one who played just one extra). So if NZ can go deep, as they have a half decent chance (as argued earlier on), then 33s on their main man at the top represents great value. Also like the fact there is always a chance of McCullum posting a monster score - one of Zimbabwe, Ireland, Netherlands or UAE will qualify for NZ's group, and he also has a chance to get his teeth stuck into a lackluster England again, so chances for a big score from McCullum aren't out of the question.