[The "snyena" system]

Bet #1 Thank you Mr Intensity. -------- Starting bank: 100 Stake: always 1 unit My first bet is: 10/9/04 SLOVAKIA v Latvia @ 2.02 Betfair If my bet wins, I will deduct the 5% Betfair fee from the profit. I was going to wait with this bet but I noticed the odds dropped from 2.07 (today morning) to 2.02 and I don't want them to drop even further. They might or might not do that, but 2.02 is still good enough for reasons I am going to explain below. I have little experience with how odds fluctuate in time (I tried to test this on Premier League games but I didn't notice any special pattern that applies to all games). Recent games (WC qualifiers): Slovakia 7 Liechtenstein 0 Russia 1 Slovakia 1 Luxembourg 3 Latvia 4 Latvia 0 Portugal 2 Key players: Slovakia: Nemeth (FC Middlesbrough), Vittek, Mintal (both 1.FC Nurnberg), Varga (Celtic), Karhan (Wolfsburg) Latvia: Verpakovskis (Dynamo Kyiv), Prohorenkovs (Dinamo Moscow), Pahars (injured, out until October 16) I watched the Slovakia v Russia game, Slovakia could and should have won with Nemeth and Mintal missing one sitter each. Slovakia dominated the whole second half in a fashion that is not usual for an away team. While Latvia are certainly not a team to write off, I can see Slovakia scoring at least one more goal in this game even if Latvia pack their midfield. The in-form Nemeth is having a good season for Middlesbrough and his goal/minute ratio is very good, Mintal has already scored 4 goals in the German Bundesliga (which is a very good record for a midfielder in a newly promoted side), and Mintal's teammate Vittek has been scoring for fun as well (1 goal against Dortmund last weekend, a hattrick against Liechtenstein and an equalizer against Russia). If these three fail, there's always Varga who could head one in from a set piece. Other factors I considered: There isn't a single player from the Slovak league in the Slovak team and only 1 such player in the squad. Latvian players play mostly in Russian and Ukrainian clubs and Skonto Riga so the international experience should be on Slovakia's side. That and Slovakia's home advantage could be the decisive factors in this fixture.

[The "snyena" system]

I have decided to post my virtual bets here. I lack the discipline to do this with real money (I end up placing non-value bets and/or I just bet for the sake of betting). I have been following various sports (especially football) since my childhood and I believe I have enough expertise to spot a value bet when I see one. The reason why I am going to use such a "play it by ear" system is that I am not aware of a method that considers all the important, outcome-relevant variables. I will post 100 bets to begin with. Let's wait and see what comes out of this. I am hoping to increase my bank by 5%.