leespam
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Posts posted by leespam
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Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 29-31 Arsenal to beat Chelsea @ 6.00 (Betfair) - 1.25/5 Chelsea vs. Arsenal - Draw @ 4.1 (Betfair) - 1.75/5 Last week I thought Arsenal were too short and this week I think they're too big :unsure For me this looks like a 3rd vs. 6th fixture (going on approximations) and traditionally the 6.00 dangled for the away side looks a little out of kilter. Gunners have been solid if a little unspectacular recently and Chelsea were unlucky not to take at least a point last time out with 9 men. Chelsea have struggled for clean sheets this season though and with Van Persie's away scoring record I can see the Gunners pinching at least a goal here. With Vermaelen also returning you would expect to see a more solid defence from Arsenal which in turn could restrict Chelsea. I'm dutching the 2 and the X here. Norwich to beat Blackburn @ 2.05 (Paddy Power) - 3/5 Norwich look a good bet to continue Blackburn's woes here. They've had two excellent results in their draw at Anfield and victory over fellow promotion winners Swansea and were also a bit unfortunate not to have come away with something at Old Trafford. Bar a draw away at QPR, Blackburn haven't offered much recently to suggest they'll avoid relegation this season. Struggle to score, struggle to defend, struggle to get the 1st goal, you could go on. I'd want 5.00 before I'd even consider backing them here so at a touch over Evens, I see Norwich as the value in this one. Bolton (+0.25) to beat Swansea @ 2.14 (Betfair) 3/5 I think this will be a close game here. Swansea have been solid at home this season but Bolton's two wins have both come away from home against teams in similar positions - QPR and Wigan. They've been wildly inconsistent but going on my approximations, I make them 3.5 for the win and 3.3 for the Draw here. The 3.8 and 3.5 available make me side with the Wanderers and I'll take the AH to keep the Draw on side. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: England » Barclays Premier League » Oct 22/23 Does anyone else feel Arsenal are being priced up on reputation? I look at that Gunners price and it looks suspiciously like a bog-standard 'Top 4 vs. Mid Table' price. However, regardless of Stoke's deficiencies this season, do Arsenal's performances this season merit them being given such a price? Would be interested to hear peoples views. P.S. Have a couple of picks but will post them up sometime tonight given chance.
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Re: Rugby League: Challenge Cup R5 and Cooperative Championships
Good day yesterday, a few more for me today Huddersfield (-6) to beat Catalans - Half Time Handicap @ 2.0 (Various) 2/5 A tough game to call but Catalans are slightly behind the HT handicapper compared to Huddersfield this season - 6-1-7 record vs. the Giants' 9-0-5. Hudds' have also been in front at HT in 6 out of their 7 homes this season - a 6-8 deficit to Wigan the only blot on the formbook - so appears a question of whether they're ahead by more than the 1 try; they've put 92 points on their last 2 opponents at the Galpharm. Evens on them being ahead by more than 6 at Half Time looks a decent bet to me. Wigan (-18) to beat Bradford @ 1.91 (Various) 2/5 Thomas Leuluai to score anytime - Bradford vs. Wigan @ 2.5 (Betfred) 1/5 Can't disagree with anything that's already been said on Wigan. They've only lost once in SL against the handicapper away from the DW - the 22-22 Draw vs. Leeds when giving away a 4 start. You'd have to fancy them to take this one as well. Tommy Leuluai has scored 4 times away from home this season and usually gets the full 80, 2.5 against a struggling side seems a touch of value. GL all :hope :okWakefield to beat Castleford - Half Time Result @ 2.3 (Sportingbet) 1/5 :) Tommy Lee (WAK) to score anytime @ 4.5 (Skybet) 0.33/5 :) Josh Griffin (WAK) to score anytime @ 2.5 (Bluesq) 0.67/5 :( -
Re: Rugby League: Challenge Cup R5 and Cooperative Championships Well Dorn got on the scoresheet but wasn't first or last - should have taken the 2.63 anytime with hindsight. A few for me today Wakefield to beat Castleford - Half Time Result @ 2.3 (Sportingbet) 1/5 Decent HT record for Wakey at home recently, 3 leads out of their last 4 and they've only conceded 26 points in those 4 x 40 minutes. Cas' in poor form and been behind at HT in their last 2, 2.3 seems fair for a Wakey half time lead. Tommy Lee (WAK) to score anytime @ 4.5 (Skybet) 0.33/5 Josh Griffin (WAK) to score anytime @ 2.5 (Bluesq) 0.67/5 I've a little feeling Wakey may cause a bit of an upset here so they could be on the scoresheet a touch more than normal. Josh Griffin has scored in half of Wakey's homes this season out on the wing while Tommy Lee is in the halves and has got on the scoresheet a couple of times - 4.5 seems a touch big for an anytime. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Challenge Cup R5 and Cooperative Championships Good shouts on Batley last night lads :ok I'm not confident enough on measuring the gaps in quality between Championship and SL sides so a small bet in one of the all-SL ties for me tonight Luke Dorn (HAR) First Tryscorer - Leeds v Harlequins @ 19 (Betfred) 0.25/5 Luke Dorn (HAR) Last Tryscorer - Leeds v Harlequins @ 19 (Betfred) 0.25/5 Luke Dorn is back in the Harlequins squad for tonight's game and has been an effective weapon for Quins scoring 4 tries in 7 away from the Stoop this season (excluding the Magic Weekend). First Away Tryscorer to St Helens, Last Away Tryscorer to Wakefield and he collected both First & Last Away payouts when Quins failed to score more than the once against Warrington. Leeds have conceded 1st in 4 of their 7 at home this season and the last try in 3 so there's every chance a Quins player could collect either tonight - 18/1 looks big for a player with Dorn's strike rate. GL all :hope :ok
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2 for me tonight Wakefield to beat Crusaders @ 2.75 (Various) 2/5 Not got my stats to hand but Wakey look a mid table side against the handicapper this season compared to Crusaders who lie in the bottom third in my stats. They're missing Chan and Withers up top and for me, these two should be closer here. Hull (-6) to beat Salford @ 1.91 (Various) 3/5 Again, no stats but Salford are wholly inconsistent while Hull have run into a bit of form recently. Just feel the 6 won't be enough here. GL all Sent from my ZTE-BLADE using Tapatalk
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Re: Rugby League: Super League XVI Round 12 & Co-op Champs Huddersfield (-20) to beat Salford @ 1.91 (Various) 2/5 Huddersfield with a 3-1-1 handicap record at the Galpharm this season so far; no disgrace in a 6-20 defeat to Wigan and just failed to clear a 24 deficit against Wakefield for a handicap draw. They've also an identical 3-1-1 record in their last 5 in Super League against the handicapper, the most notable result being a 29-10 victory over Warrington when receiving a 2 start. Salford meanwhile have the 2nd lowest number of handicap victories this season (4 - only 1 more than Crusaders) and a 2-0-3 handicap record in their last 5, including a 52-20 defeat to Castleford when receiving a 10 start in their last game away from the Willows. Both sides coming off defeats over Easter, Robinson is missing for Giants but O'Donnell returning will be a big boost in the forwards - Salford are at full strength. In summary, I just see Hudds taking this by more than the 20 - especially if the Reds turn in another performance like they did against Warrington. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League XVI Round 12 & Co-op Champs Top shout on KR henry :ok Poor day for me :(. Saints couldn't quite cover the 6 at half time and then on the receiving end of another Easter weekend shock after Wire were turned over. Then in the evening game, hadn't heard anything about Menzies being injured and the weather conspires to make sure neither side clears a 10 point winning margin. Hopefully find a decent bet in the Hudds game tomorrow night :hope
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3 for me tomorrow St Helens (-6) to beat Castleford - 1st Half Handicap @ 2.00 (Stan James) 2/5 2 form teams on the back of late turnaround defeats here. Cas' have just the one half time handicap win this season, a 10-6 HT lead at Hull when getting a 2 start. St Helens meanwhile have 8 half time wins against the handicapper this season so far, including 3 from the last 3 at home and 5 from the last 5 overall. No major team news for either side, I'll take Saints to keep up their impressive 1st half performances here. Warrington (-16) to beat Hull FC @ 1.91 (Various) 2/5 Warrington are in great form against the handicapper - 2nd (Hcap Overall), 3rd (Hcap Home), 4th (Hcap Form) and 2nd (Hcap Home Form) in my tables. Hull have a great record with this line - 10 from 11 so far - but with a mid-table handicap performance overall (5-0-6) and without playmaker Sean Long, I fancy the in-form Wolves to take this. Catalans (-10) to beat Bradford @ 1.91 (Sportingbet) 2/5 Bradford in desperate handicap form recently, only 1 lonely draw from their last 5 - a 28-16 loss away to Saints when receiving a 12 start. Catalans meanwhile are top of a handicap form table with 4 wins from their last 5 and could finally welcome back Thomas Bosc here. Bradford will also be missing their best back in Brett Kearney here and I just can't see them staying within 10 points of the in-form Dragons here. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League XVI Round 11 & Co-op Champs Unlucky Kev. KR were great defensively, just a shame they couldn't have had a bit more possession.
Managed to get 2.0 on the +8 (bet365) and 3.65 (Betfair) on the 80 minutes GL all :okSt Helens (+8) to beat Wigan @ TBC (TBC) 2/5 St Helens to beat Wigan @ 3.25+ (TBC) 1/5 -
Re: Rugby League: Super League XVI Round 11 & Co-op Champs
Good start to a busy Easter weekend :). 2 more for me tomorrow so far Huddersfield (-18) to beat Crusaders @ 1.91 (Various) 3/5 Crusaders have demonstrated nothing recently to suggest they'll keep within 18 points of Huddersfield here. Only 2 handicap wins from their 10 games overall and a solitary draw from their 3 homes this season. Huddersfield are one of the form horses in Super League at the moment though. 3 handicap wins from their last 3 away from the Galpharm they also have only the 3 h'cap losses overall. At full strength against a Crusaders side missing Withers, I'll take the Giants here. Castleford (-16) to beat Wakefield @ 1.95 (Bwin) 2/5 Again, sticking with a form team in Cas' here. At full strength bar Youngquest, they've only 2 h'cap losses this season so far and are 5 from 5 in their home games. Wakey on the back of a trouncing away to Saints, they should be better here but they had a lot of defending to do last week - I can just see Tigers edging past the 16 margin late on. And one I'll take tomorrow as the price drifts... St Helens (+8) to beat Wigan @ TBC (TBC) 2/5 St Helens to beat Wigan @ 3.25+ (TBC) 1/5 Looking at the latest handicap prices, I'd expect a run on Wigan tomorrow. There's plenty to be optimistic about Saints though. Unbeaten in their last 5 games against the handicapper (3 wins and 2 draws) and they've only lost 1 from 10 with this 8 start. Wigan have suffered a blip this season and are winless against the handicapper at home this season, they also turned in what I thought was an average Wigan performance against Hull KR last time out. Gaskell is missing for Saints but I don't think it's enough to put me off here. I'll fill in the prices tomorrow. GL all :hope :okBradford (+4) to beat Leeds - 1st Half Handicap @ 1.91 (Skybet) 3/5 -
One for me in tonight's game Bradford (+4) to beat Leeds - 1st Half Handicap @ 1.91 (Skybet) 3/5 The form these two are in, I just can't bring myself to get involved in any of the 80 minute markets here. On closer inspection however, Bradford's 1st half performances haven't been without merit this season. 2 half-time handicap wins and a draw from their 4 at Odsal this season - only a 26-0 drubbing by Wigan in their 1st home game blotting the copybook. It's not surprising that Leeds are awful against the half time line taking into account their current form and reputation. Only 1 HT h'cap win away from home this season and they've lost each of the last 3, I'll take the Bulls with a 4 start here and wouldn't put anyone off backing the 40 minute price either. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League Rd 10 & Co-op Championships Cheers Kev, yeah the outrights are looking good at the moment :hope Two for me tonight Hull FC (+8) to beat Catalans @ 1.91 (Various) 2/5 Hull FC to beat Catalans @ 3.1 (Boyles & Unibet) 1/5 Feel Catalans need to build up some more home form before commanding this type of line. Failed to clear an 8 line all season at home and while they've been excellent in their last 2 away games, they lie in a disappointing 11th in my handicap home table. FC meanwhile have 2 handicap wins from their 3 games away from home this season, including a 40-30 victory when receiving -2 at Quins last time out. Long is suspended while Sharp is dropped for FC and while Bosc returns for Catalans, I just feel FC are worth a shot here. GL all :hope :ok
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4 for me tonight Huddersfield (+4) to beat Leeds @ 2.00 (Stan James) 1.5/5 Huddersfield to beat Leeds @ 2.5 (Sportingbet) 1.5/5 Simply by the numbers bet here - although didn't work out the last time when fancied Wigan against Leeds and they drew! Hudds 2nd in a h'cap adjusted league table to Leeds' 11th. 7 wins from 9 with the 4 start, 1 win from 4 for Leeds at Headingley this season with the deficit. Tbh I could go on as there's quite a few of my stats that back up Hudds as a good bet. No major team news to report, Leeds welcome back Delaney, Burgess and Leuluai and Hudds welcome Griffin with Fa'alogo still sidelined. I'll take half on the cap and half on the outright. Wakefield (+12) to beat St Helens - 1st Half Handicap @ 2.00 (Skybet) 3/5 Wakefield have been excellent against the half time handicapper in recent weeks - 4 wins and a draw from the last 5 with the HT handicap applied including a 26-6 lead/win against Quins last time out when receiving a 2 HT start. They've won 2 from 4 with this 12 start away from home, while Saints have only the 1 victory receiving a 12 point HT handicap at home. Morrison missing for Wakey is a blow but Saints also miss Perry, Meli, Pryce and Clough so I'll take Wakey to keep within 2 tries at the half time hooter. Warrington (-12) to beat Crusaders - 1st Half Handicap @ 2.00 (Various) 2/5 Crusaders have only the 1 win at half time after the handicapper has had his say, a 6-0 lead against the Salford City Reds in the round before last. Warrington should be too strong for them here and they've had a greater than 2 try lead in 50% of their home ties this season so far. Crusaders welcome Withers and Sammut back while Blythe makes way for the returning Briers for Wire. Wire with 2 HT h'cap wins from their last 3 homes, I'll take them to be in front by more than 12 here. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League XVI Ante-post bets and discussion St Helens to top Regular Season standings @ 11.5 (Betfair - £75 available) 1.5 Units
Top of Regular Season should come from this group IMO. Cas' have yet to meet Saints, Warrington and Wigan so you would expect them to drop points at some stage and Wigan and Wire have been suffering alarming losses of form in the last 2 weeks. That leaves 2 in-form sides in Huddersfield and St Helens, Hudds are in great form but you would think they're relatively new to the Top 4 or 5 positions since Nathan Brown took over. Looking at Betfair, there is currently £75 trading at 11.5 on this Saints side finishing top of the regular season standings - it's less than half this price in places :eek. Now granted, there are question marks over their young halves but they're playing well, they have a solid coach in Royce Simmons and a good blend of youth and experience with the likes of Wellens & Wilkin mixing with Shenton, Foster etc. Simply put, over 10/1 on a side that have won their last 4 games and have finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd in the last 3 competitions looks too big to me and they've been added to my ante-posts accordingly. GL all :hope :okPld Pts Castleford 8 14 Huddersfield 9 14 St Helens 9 13 Warrington 9 12 Wigan 8 10 -
Re: Rugby League: Super League Rd 9, Northern Rail & Co-Op Champs Cheers Kev. Umm-ed and ahh-ed a bit on this one but decided to go for it Leeds (-10) to beat Hull KR @ 2.1 (Bet365) 2/5 As I've said in the past, this KR outfit are missing Dobson and Newton badly. A poor run of form has seen them only take the one win against the handicapper in their last 5 - the 40-22 defeat of Crusaders in Round 5. Leeds haven't been pulling up trees recently but have 2 away wins from 3 when receiving the -10, their only defeat being the 40-24 loss to Warrington in Round 4. Their bench is looking stronger each week and although falling away towards the end, they put in a much improved performance last time out against Wigan. I'll take them to win this by more than the 10. GL all :hope :ok
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4 for me tonight Huddersfield to beat Warrington @ 2.56 (Betfair) 1/5 Huddersfield vs. Warrington - Under 46.5 Points @ 1.83 (Betfair) 2/5 Both sides welcome back some decent players in the shape of Westwood, O’Donnell, Gilmour etc. but lose a couple in the likes of Briers and Fa’alogo. Think Hudds just look a touch large here, might be a touch too much read into their home defeat to Wigan and the 6/4 for a home win – admittedly a 2nd consecutive defeat for Wire; not something that happens too much – looks large to me. Also, the team news as it is, I could see Warrington struggling for creativity and Hudds struggling for yardage so the unders (both 6 from 8 under this line) looks a decent bet too. St Helens (-12) to beat Crusaders @ 1.8 (Sportingbet) 3/5 Crusaders still one of the lesser performing sides against the handicap this season, their win at a poor Salford last week only their second against the handicapper so far. Saints have won 4 from 8 overall and 2 of their 3 away from the Stobart, both over the 12 received here. Withers still missing for Crusaders and Moore, Meli, Pryce and Clough missing for Saints, I still feel they’ve the strength in depth to cope and beat the Crusaders by more than the 12 here. Bradford to beat Hull FC @ 2.75 (Sky Bet) 1/5 Just feel that Hull are still under a bit of pressure here. They may have felt hard done by against Cas’ last week but they’ve been poor this season and a couple of early tries could see the heads go down again. Bradford aren’t in the greatest of form granted, but they’re grinding out some wins and you should still get a run for your money here at 2.75. L’Estrange and O’Meley return for both sides in notable team news. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League Rd 8 & Co-Op Champs One for me in tonights game Salford (-10) to beat Crusaders @ 1.91 (Various) 3/5 As well as being in poor form overall, Crusaders have also failed against the handicapper this season. Only the one win and draw with the handicap and that draw came in their 2nd game and in an ironic turn, the win against tonight's opponents at Millenium Magic. Salford have turned the corner somewhat after that trouncing in Wales though and come into this game with consecutive handicap victories over KR and Catalans. The likes of Broughton, Smith and Holdsworth are all playing well and against a Crusaders side missing one of their pivots in Witt and most definitely their best forward in Withers, I don't feel the 10 will be enough for them here. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League Rd 8 & Co-Op Champs As a Leeds fan that was probably worse than a Handicap Draw :puke Good shouts on Saints and Cas' tho lads :ok
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One for me tonight Wigan (-4) to beat Leeds @ 1.91 (Various) 4/5 3 away wins from 3 for Wigan against the -4 taking them to the top of an Away Handicap-adjusted league table this season. Leeds have 1 from 3 with the 4 start and lie a disappointing 11th in an overall handicap-adjusted league table. Leeds have Kirke in for the injured Burgess and they were truly awful in the first half vs. Wakefield last week. Wigan welcome back Joel Tomkins (rumoured to take his place in the Centres rather than his usual Second Row berth) and Finch makes his second consecutive appearance with Deacon still injured. They were deserved losers against Warrington last week but they should bounce back here against a Leeds side which are nowhere near the force they once were (sadly :() GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League - Super League - 25-27th March 2011
Glad I took the .5 handicap, was 1.95 with Bwin an all :@. Good shout on Wire Kev :ok. One for me tonight, Huddersfield (-4) to beat Hull KR @ 1.91 (Various) 3/5 Huddersfield (12.5+) Winning Margin vs. Hull KR @ 3.00 (Betfair) 1/5 Fancy Huddersfield strongly here. Although losing to Wigan last time out, Huddersfield have been the stronger against the handicapper this season with 4 wins from 6 receiving the -4. KR have a 50% win record against the handicapper but lost their last game away to Salford and have arguably their best back and forward out injured in the absent Dobson and Newton. Hudds are at full strength and I'll take a little tinkle on them winning by the 13+ as well. GL all :hope :okBradford (+12.5) to beat St Helens @ 1.8 (Bet365 & BetFred) 2/5 -
Re: Rugby League - Super League - 25-27th March 2011
He he, not a bad shout last week though to say you don't know mate! Hope it keeps up for you again this week, just the one for me tomorrow night, Bradford (+12.5) to beat St Helens @ 1.8 (Bet365 & BetFred) 2/5 Have to give Bradford another go here. Solid hard-fought win at home to Cas' last time out, 4 handicap wins from their 6 league games so far and hence lie in an impressive 3rd place in a handicap-adjusted league table. Saints finally put a decent performance together last week beating Leeds away from home but have the worst handicap-adjusted home record (0-0-2-12-52) in Super League so far. Granted, 2 games isn't much of a sample but it's worth remembering they've two relatively young halves and haven't demonstrated anything like their normal home form at the Stobart Stadium this season. Neither side with any major injury worries and I'll take the Bulls with the 12.5 here. GL all :hope :okWigan v Warrington - Wigan To Score First @ 8/11 - William Hill 7.5pts Same again this week, Wigan to score first. This landed 29/32 times last season and all five this season. As I said in last weeks thread, I know nothing about Rugby League but this is such a profitable bet. -
Two for me tonight Huddersfield (-4) to beat Wigan @ 10/11 (Various) 2/5 Hudds with two solid wins at home this season vs. Bradford and Hull. Wigan come into this with both Tomkins brothers missing after a narrow, bad tempered affair at home to Hull. They do have some able replacements coming in though in the shape of Roberts and Tuson. My only worry is, taking the respective coaches styles into consideration, this could easily turn into a low-scoring arm wrestle - especially so considering the experienced men Hudds have brought into this weeks squad. I'll take a chance on Hudds taking this one by more than 4 though. Catalans to beat Crusaders @ 2.16 (Betfair) 2/5 I thought Catalans were unlucky last week. A bit more 'nous' around the tryline and they could easily have pushed Cas' - who scored two long range breakaway tries remember - closer. Crusaders appear to be treading water after trouncing Salford at MM with a lot of focus being on the 3 overseas players awaiting Visas. Late scoring has disguised some really poor performances so I'll take the Dragons for this one tonight. GL all :hope :ok
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Re: Rugby League: Super League XVI Rd 5 & Co-op Champs Yeah, disappointing last night Kev :(. Still early days though. One for me tonight. Catalans to beat Castleford @ 3.4 (Bet365 this morning, 3.25 still available) 2/5 Think Catalans are worth a shot here. Pushed St Helens close last week - admittedly, not that great a form line considering the Quins result last night - but won at KR in their last away game. They also welcome back two experienced campaigners in Greenshields and Baile tonight and although Cas' are in great form, I just feel Catalans could run them close. GL all :hope :ok
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