figtree
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Posts posted by figtree
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Re: Champions League 30th September
:clap You'd have got 13.00 on zurich win monday!:eekAc Milan v Zurich Pick Zurick +2 @ 2.20 Cant give much reasoning but milan have started poorly in serie A, last two games losing 1-0 at udinese and drawing 0-0 with bari at home. Also, italian teams often sit on a lead rather than continue to press. The 1.50 under 2.5 goals wasnt worth taking so see this as better value. ZURICH +2 @ 2.10 -
Re: Champions League 30th September ''My own thoughts are that City have way too much for West Ham, and anything above 1.50 represents good value for the home win. West Ham could well struggle this season, but there's a long way to go yet.'' Quote from premier league thread from you paul. Perhaps you should lead by example first!? Hardly inspiring and informative.
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Re: Champions League 30th September B.Munich v Juventus Again, cant give solid reasoning, more of a hunch pick this one. B.Munich arent what they used to be and ive noticed a few inconsistent results the past 6 months with them. Whereas Juventus really do have a team to challenge in europe and domestically this season. Ive seen them 3 times this season and they are a real threat. Their 1-1 draw with bologna on sunday was unfortunate and they should have killed the game off earlier several times before bologna's 93rd min equaliser. I think diego is a fantastic player and returning to germany he will hopefully want to impress. DNB is prob better value but Munich can leak goals so im taking a chance on JUVENTUS win @ 3.80
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Re: Champions League 30th September Ac Milan v Zurich Pick Zurick +2 @ 2.20 Cant give much reasoning but milan have started poorly in serie A, last two games losing 1-0 at udinese and drawing 0-0 with bari at home. Also, italian teams often sit on a lead rather than continue to press. The 1.50 under 2.5 goals wasnt worth taking so see this as better value. ZURICH +2 @ 2.10
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Re: 4 fold system (help needed) note for anyone taking an interest, you can also apply the table and bet trebles. Just make as many traingles as possible.
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Re: 4 fold system (help needed) okay, ive posted it on a maths forum, hopefully the nxt stephen hawkins will solve it for me :D If i get a response or suddenly start seeing shapes and numbers in my mind ill post it up. fig
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Re: 4 fold system (help needed) I was hoping it was just me who found it complicated....small comfort that it isnt. I really hope someone can help me out with working against the risks/probability but....i suppose there over on the menza forum:lol If only Pythagoras was still alive...mmm.. Seriously, if anyone can offer any tips on just even how to approach working it out, i'd be grateful. EDIT- the application of placing the bets isnt complicated, you just give each team a number and place the slips accordingly. But whether the VALUE in terms of probability and risk holds up against say 6 folds from 16,7 folds from 16 or alternate systems is the complicated bit.
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System is to make all 4 fold squares and lines from below table You pick 16 teams and give them a number. teams 1 7 10 16 occur the least so should be your least fav selections. teams 5 8 9 12 occur the most and the system needs all to win and max one fail so these should be your most confident picks. ...........1.........................C ......2.......3..................B.....B ...4.....5......6.............B....A.....B 7....8.......9.....10.....C...A......A.....C ...11...12.....13...........B.....A.....B ......14.....15..................B.....B ..........16.........................C There are 9 squares and 10 lines SQUARES 1 3 5 2 2 5 4 8 4 8 7 11 3 6 5 9 5 9 8 12 8 12 11 14 6 10 9 13 9 13 12 15 12 15 14 16 LINES 1 3 6 10 2 5 9 13 4 8 12 15 7 11 14 16 1 2 4 7 3 5 8 11 6 9 12 14 10 13 15 16 1 5 12 16 7 8 9 10 Teams 1 7 10 16 occur 4 times Teams 2 3 4 6 11 13 14 15 occur 4 times Teams 5 8 9 12 occur 7 times You can eliminate lines 1 5 12 16 7 8 9 10 This will now make 17 bets not 19 but reduced C teams to 3 bets B teams remain at 4 bets A reduced to 6 bets INITIAL AIM OF THE SYSTEM Was to find a more progressive return plan than traditional 4 fold out of 16 bets. there are 2380 4 folds in 16 selections. If you get 4/5/6/7/8/9 correct you will not return much and be at a loss. But if you get 13/14/15/16 correct you will receive a huge payout. I wanted to reduce the overall payout for high hit ratio on selections and increase the payout for getting 60-70% correct (9-11 out of 16) PROBLEMS (need help solving or working out to then find alternate system) Team A's occur in 6/17 or 7/19 bets. The system blatantly requires the 4 A teams to win, but 35% of bets lost from one A team failure is too big and i'd like that amount to be more like 25% of bets. Every team has at least 4 teams it doesnt share a bet slip with. Im happy with that. But some teams tie themselves to others too much. For example team 5 (a A team) has the following other teams in its bets. Team 1= 2 bets Team 2 = 3 bets Team 3 = 3 bets Team 4 = 1 bet Team 6 = 1 bet Team 8 = 3 bets Team 9 = 3 bets Team 11 = 1 bet Team 12 = 2 bets Team 13 = 1 bet Team 16 = 1 bet Teams not tied to are = team 7 10 14 15 I think team 2/3/8/9 being in 3 bets the same as team 5 maybe too many out of 19 bets???? --------------------------------------------------------------- WORKING OUT RISK To be honest i really dont know where to start, when trying to work out the risk each team has. I'd like to calculate the risk of getting 8/16 selections correct but still not getting a payout. I'd also like to calculate the probability of getting only 6 selections correct but luckily hittin two payouts. If you get 4 or 5 you can only get max one payout. Hitting 5 needs a 6th correct to bring in a seperate square. I know that achieving 12/16 (75%) correct will return a minimum of 5-8 4 folds providing you have successfully won all 4 A bets (numbers 5 8 9 12). STAKING PLAN At average odds of 1.80 per team, each 4 fold will return 10.50 for every £1. returning one 4 fold will make a loss of 45% 2 4 folds will profit 15% Ideally the closer your average 4 fold return is to 16/1 the better. Which is 2.00 average team. To add alittle extra security when staking on the 4 fold that includes the 4 A teams 5 8 9 12 This bet should profit total stake on system (other 16/18bets). Again though, it adds extra emphasise on the A selections being correct. ___________________________________________________ Conclusion I think the system could have potential but its overly reliant on the A teams and perhaps too many teams are tied in with each other which doesnt spread the risk. If 1 A team fails that leaves 62-65% of bets left. If 2 A teams fail that leaves only 30-33% of bets left and unless luck is with you, no pay out. (i'd like to work out that probability) It seems like a good system to use when your confident of your selections and/or you can add teams to it your betting on over a full weekend or even week. It does need a minimum of 9/10 bets correct to LIKELY return a 4 fold or 2. COMPARED TO SINGLES At 1.80 and flat staking you would need 10.5 selection correct to breakeven. Although you obviously get money back for each win so reduce risk of losing all stake. With this system 10.5 correct picks im certain would win x 4 folds and yield profit. If all or min of 3 As were won, i beleive it should win 3-4 4 folds. Again,id like to calculate this probability. Ive explained it best i can. Any input much appreciated. If the system once probability is calculated, still holds up against probability of other systems i will start a new thread to track picks and financials. Cheers FIG :ok
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Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 After convincing myself bout spurs put a treble on spurs standard liege man city 8/1
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Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009
UEFA CUP QUALIFICATION 5th placed league team carling cup winners OR 6th placed league team (if winners already in europe via league) FA CUP winners OR runners up (if winners already qualified for europe via league) Intertoto place just so everyone clear!Why won't Spurs qualify for the Uefa Cup if they win or lose the League cup at the weekend? Last I understood was that a UEFA cup place goes to winners of FA and League cup + 5th place? unless I've been under the wrong impression all these years. -
Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009
Add to that mike they got to try and prioritise staying in the premier league too! and harry got a lot of on juggle this next few months!!! like i say, i would have tried to get through this round and then after knowing sundays result put less emphasise on this seasons uefa cup if beat man utd. But then again, harry must think he can turn man u over sunday?Thanks for clarifying that with me Fig.....got a little confusing there. Hmmm lets see here, try to win the UEFA Cup and repeat it again next season or try and beat Man Utd in one game lol I don't know which is tougher lol -
Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 No let me clarify. If spurs WIN on sunday they WILL qualify for uefa cup next season. If however they lose, they will not get a place even though man utd have qualified for europe via league. It will go to the 6th placed league team. I believe spurs are putting all their eggs in one basket thinking they will win on sunday and as such qualify for europe. Therefore surely they would be best to give tonight a good go and try and qualify in case they do lose on sunday. If they win sunday then thats surely the time to forget the uefa cup for this year and focus on the league.
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Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009
ye, definatly correct mike, runners up in carling cup dont qualify if winners already done so via league, it goes to league. iTs the fa cup where the runner up has a chance. like i say, think there abit of value in spurs considering all factors shakter can lose youth/fringe may want to impress keep options open til after sunday at least and so on..Really? I'd like to know where you got this idea -
Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 Just done abit of googlin and i seems i was right. The carling cup runners up do NOT qualify for europe, the place goes to 6th place in the league. The FA cup runners up however do get a place in europe if the winners of fa cup have already qualified for europe via league. as i posted earlier, i think spurs were silly to put so much on sundays game. It reality i think tonight isnt as meaningless as people think and a spurs win, based on reasoning from post earlier looking a shrewd bet at 2.50 especially as shakter can afford to lose 1-0 2-1 3-1 and still qualify. gonna put small stakes on spurs win smaller stakes on spurs 2-0 BOL:hope
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Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009
Are you sure that is right mike, i dont think spurs qualify for europe if lose on sunday? I know man u in europe already (next season) but i believed if carling or fa cup winners were also champions league qualifiers then the uefa spot went to next position in league not runners up of cup? If you are right then i certainly wont be putting small stakes on spurs 2-0.Spurs can say it's a hindrance moreso than Villa. Spurs are already in Europe next season by playing Utd this weekend for the Carling Cup. Villa on the other SHOULD of played well in either the FA or the UEFA Cup. The quality of the UEFA Cup is there on paper but most teams don't care. Teams such as PSG, Marseille, Fiorentina, AC Milan, they don't give a crap primarily because if you look at their position in their current divisions, they are more than capable of getting into the Champs League. Playing the UEFA Cup will take it's toll especially for English clubs due to the ridiculously long schedule. Getting into Europe is all about money and brand recognition. But you have to also look at how they are fairing domestically. Majority of these UEFA Cup teams don't have the money that the big boys do so for them it is difficult to field a competitive squad every single match. That's why I feel a lot of the Eastern European teams succeed due to the break they currently have, yes they are out of match condition on some occasions but they have more rest and have a healthier squad. -
Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 Others for me tonight UDINESE v Lech poznan After a poor run udinese have started turning the tide alittle and got back to scoring ways recently in th last half a dozen games. i like there 4-3-3 system and they have goals in them combined with the defensive italian style. With there confidence back i can see a solid professional win to nil to send them through. Odds not great @1.57 but should come off. CSKA v Villa Everything already been said about this match, i took them @ 1.63 (hw). dont think it will be the goal fest some are predicting but 2-0 is likely. MAN CITY v copenhagen HW available at 1.52. Not great especially considering how man city have stuttered through games at times. But they have also won convincing on a hand full of occasions- home to portsmouth,hull,stoke etc.. i think tonight they will produce that form and score at least 3 but concede too. Singles on Ajax liege man city cska udinese and a five fold @ 21/1
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Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 HI, My gut feeling is to keep away from the spurs v shakhter match. Fair enough redknapp isnt bothered about the uefa cup now but he may well be in few weeks if they can string a few league wins together. I thought it was a mistake to play a weakened squad in shakter in the first place as i see them having a better chance of euro qualification next year thru the uefa cup than a win on sunday. Youth team/fringe players can also cause a suprise especially in this kind of game where their lack of maturity wont matter, they have nothing to lose and arent been asked to do a disciplined job (requiring experience) but just go out, get at them and see if they can get the win. A goal before h-t and who knows what can happen? But i certainly dont fancy shakter here. The first goal is crucial. If i do decide to play it i might stick small stakes on 2-0 spurs @14/1 and if that happens it is anyones in extra time/ penalties. AJAX V FIORENTINA I think a home win is a good bet here tonight. Ajax arent set-up to keep it tight and hold on to what they have got and italian football just doesnt cut it anymore in europe. I can see ajax scoring a few here tonight, and taking advantage of fiorentinas lack of shape when having to push forward. Again the first goal is crucial and i believe ajax will get it forcing fiorentina forward and opening them up. I think ajax will go far this year under van basten, taking into cnsideration what has been posted above about top clubs not taking this competition seriously. the uefa cup these days suits an attacking team, used to winning domestically regularly from an average strength league- Ajax fit that perfectly. S.LIEGE v Braga I bet on liege in the first leg and they had a disaster going down 3-0 on the end. I watched that match and they didnt start too badly but went down to a great individual first goal and it all went wrong from there. Id love to see Liege go thru as i think they play some nicde football, they are certainly a better team than braga, but the 3 goal advantage will probably be too much for them to over-turn. Even so i doubt theyll just give up, its not past any team to get a 2-0 lead before h-t and so i think the 1.85 for the home win is a steal especially as braga are quite poor and wont know how to approach this game until at least 60-70mins in when they can assess where they are from scoreline.
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Re: ATP Buenos Aires/Marseille/Memphis & WTA Bogata/Dubai/Memphis 16-22nd Feb Bet update ready for start of week Total bets 46 Correct bets 22 Total staked £810 Total returned £983.30 P/L = +£173.30 Outstanding bets 10 (£200) Got a good feeling about this week:)
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Re: ATP Buenos Aires/Marseille/Memphis & WTA Bogata/Dubai/Memphis 16-22nd Feb Hi guys, couldnt post last week with work commitments, had a look at tomos matches and quite a few stand out. 10pts on each. Stepanek beat fish @ 1.80 gabashvili beat tursunov @ 2.85 hernych beat vliegen @ 1.87 baghdatis beat nishikori @ 1.55 andreev beat kunitysn @ 1.44 hewitt beat blake @ 2.30 haas beat querrey @ 1.70 stosur beat rybarikova @ 1.65 kleybanova beat ivanovic @ 2.75 kudryatseva beat krajicek @ 1.83 Total stake £200 Stepanek had a good win over roddick and although fish is on home soil i dont think he will cause stepanek too many problems.he may take a set on tie break at best. gabashvili, odds very generous for a capable tennis player on his day against a poor player most the time. hernych v vliegen, an even match up but fancy hernych come through. baggy in better shape and surly will dispose off nishikori at good odds. stosur should have too much for rybarikova. A solid performer if not spectacular. know littler about rybarikova but 1.65 good enough odds for me. kleybanova as a great chance of beating ivanovic if she sticks in there and grinds down a mentally weak ivanovic. kudrayseva a steal to beat krajicek. should be about 1.40 in my opinion. Just dont rate krajicek. Good luck:hope
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Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb
Stake £80 returned £73 P/L = -£7 Another day without profit on the tennis. troicki played a small part in my relative lack of success so far. Thought suavez-navarro would come through, chose her over peer who obviously won:(. ___________________________________________________ Total bets 32 Correct bets 13 Total stake £530 Total return £567.70 P/L = + £36.70 ____________________________________________________________ Not looking to healthy anymore:cry Got to get correct bets score to 50%Tomos bets Gonzalez beat monaco @ 1.45:tongue2 Troicki beat cilic @ 3.75:@ sugiyama beat ivanovic @ 4.50:@ Pennetta beat mauresmo @ 2.20:tongue2 suarez navarro beat Kvitova @ 1.85:@ Mr Troicki cost me this tournament and no doubt he will lose the first time i back him. the h2h is 2-0 cilic, one being a retirement and the other 6-3 6-7 1-6 He obviously collapsed when losing 2nd set but he did push him, so on that basis and recent form, i think hes worth a shot. Gonzalez, i saw against max gonzalez, theres no doubting hes a good player if abit cavalier. As long as his unforced errors are lower than winners i think hell take this 2-0, but just going with outright win and possibly abit of live play. others wrong thread so wont write up, but sugiyama-ivanovic stands out to me as worth a go for underdog of the day @ 4.5 -
Re: Tennis notes/reports
Jeremy Chardy' date= a french talent who reached 61 on the ranking this week february 2. His highest ranking so far, 22 years old.FEB 7th 09 Good win for him today beating ferrer 1-6 7-6 7-6 to reach atp johannesburg final vs Tsonga. -
Re: Tennis notes/reports NEXT MATCHES Robredo v acasuso 1.50 2.65 Gonzalez v cuevas 1.08 7.00 I saw a little of cuevas beating capdeville but not enough do a write up. From game one cuevas always looked like the winner. From what i saw capdeville looked like a very poor player worse ive seen out of acasuso, both gonzalezs and bellucci. There is definatly value in cuevas versus gonzo based on how close max gonzalez pushed f.gonzalez 2 rounds ago. First time ive seen him play and he looks consistent and quite impressive. Robredo v acasuso, am i correct in thinking robredo is a defensive player too? If so, this is anyones and a no bet for me from what ive recently of acasuso.
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Re: Tennis notes/reports
NOTE Gonzalez beat monaco and easily, taking the first 6-0!Primarily a thread for writing up a brief report of matches you have watched. Also for any prematch info you may have on a player or match. MAX GONZALEZ(ARG) v FERNANDO GONZALEZ(CHI) Pre match odds 7.00/1.08 Vina del mar FEB 2009 Final score 5-7 6-7 The atmosphere in chile was electric, a nice litte compact court full to capacity for Fernando. Max looked nervous and Fernando looked like he was enjoying it but felt a bit exposed on his home turf. He broke max in the first games and the opening 6 games it looked like Fernando was gonna run away with it. Max finally starting to compose himself but was still being pushed on his serve, he eventually broke back to level 4-4, then held serve comfortably for 5-4. fernando was rattled, wasnt focused on the match but more his image to the crowd when missing shots/ great winners. Max then led 15-40 but fluffed a 2nd serve return, ace next for deuce, but a Fernando unforced error for 3rd set point, strong serve and few quick points and back to 5-5 on serve. Max then lost his head abit and lost the 11th game to 15 and 12th in similar fashion. second set took on a similar theme,max showing some nice tennis and hanging in there whilst fernando showed off, some spectacular winners and just as spectacular errors.Eventually went to a tie break where max could have got back to 1-1 but as it was went down 9-7 and 2 sets to nil. F.gonzo had a large bandage on his left foot that seemed to be irritating him during set 1. Conclusion F.Gonzo, hes got some sweet shots but he tries to end the points too soon, i just felt hes abit egotistical and not fully focused on the match. His unforced error count is very high and seems to lack intelliegence setting up better opportunities. Its not that he deserved to lose here but it was a very even game when it need not have been. As for Max, never seen him before and i was impressed with his resiliance. Unspectacular in the main, very workman like, but unless he improves his attacking abilities he needs to improve his serve considerably. He so easily could have won this match and it definiatly should have gone to three, but that was more to do with Fernandos unforced errors than Max's ability. NEXT UP- F.GONZALEZ v J.MONACO J.Monaco beat Starace 6-3 6-3 in previous round. Bet- unsure (need more knowledge on monaco's game and form) -
Re: Tennis notes/reports
NOTE Acasuso beat Decoud! Very suprised after what i witnessed in the acasuso v bellucci match. I know little about decoud, did he play badly? Did he beat himself? or did acasuso perform better? If anyone saw this match a few notes would be useful. fig:okAcasuso (ARG) v Bellucci (BRA) Prematch odds 2.10 - 1.65 Vina del mar FEB 2009 Final score 7-6 6-3 Another night match in chile, stadium this time was only 25% full at best and the atmosphere very flat. Bellucci raced into a 3-0 game lead, breaking once but acasuso kept his composure hold/break/hold to make it 3-3. It stayed on serve until the tie break with each servers game being tested-ie- 40-30, deuce and so on.. Acasuso kept cool in the tie break and waited for bellucci's errors, taking it 7-3. Start of the 2nd Bellucci should have broke, he wasted several opportunities to do so but again his eagerness to win the point and early costing him through unforced errors. The set remained on serve, with most of Acasuso's service games being won to 30 or 40, bellucci holding reasonably comfortably. At 4-3 acasuso, he broke bellucci after at least a ten minute game and 7 or 8 break points. Belluccis unforced errors costing him again. Acasuso served out the match comfortably for a 2-0 win. Conclusion Left handed Bellucci likes to control the rallies, his favoured shot being his forehand.I noticed he likes to swing his arm back early and snap when connecting with the ball to generate real pace. This is great when the timing/angle is right but when slightly off the ball goes at least 3 foot over the baseline and out. He did this at least 25 times during the 2 sets. I good way to play him, is always go to his backhand, as when the ball is low he rarely gets under the ball enough and more unforced errors occur. One shot he had real success with was the backhand dropshot (when returnig ball was hip height and above),taking advantage of the clay surface ans slow opponent he played this shot 15-20 times and amazingly only once did he miss and every other point he won without acasuso even returning it mostly. As for acasuso, abit like max gonzalez yesterday, he gains alot of his points through his opponents impatience but his real strength is his mental calmness. he allowed bellucci to control the points and at least 1 in 2 points he won were from unforced errors. He got caught out too often with the drop shot and lacked movement around the court. His mix of shots was poor, only drop shotting once and failing and mostly playing deep forehands to belluccis backhand. If bellucci had been right handed and more consistent, acasuso would have been easily disposed of. Acasuso didnt play enougt ggod tennis to deserve to win, bellucci beat himself. NEXT UP DECOUD v ACASUSO I dont know a great deal about decoud but on this performance ill be backing him against a poor acasuso. 9/10 bet.
Champions League 30th September
in Champions League Predictions
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Re: Champions League 30th September
I dont care either way especially as im one of the contributors that 90% of the time tips with lots of information ie-my wolves posts. but whats good for the goose......