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figtree

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About figtree

  • Birthday 09/15/1983
  1. Re: Champions League 30th September I dont care either way especially as im one of the contributors that 90% of the time tips with lots of information ie-my wolves posts. but whats good for the goose......
  2. Re: Champions League 30th September :clap You'd have got 13.00 on zurich win monday!:eek
  3. Re: Champions League 30th September ''My own thoughts are that City have way too much for West Ham, and anything above 1.50 represents good value for the home win. West Ham could well struggle this season, but there's a long way to go yet.'' Quote from premier league thread from you paul. Perhaps you should lead by example first!? Hardly inspiring and informative.
  4. Re: Champions League 30th September B.Munich v Juventus Again, cant give solid reasoning, more of a hunch pick this one. B.Munich arent what they used to be and ive noticed a few inconsistent results the past 6 months with them. Whereas Juventus really do have a team to challenge in europe and domestically this season. Ive seen them 3 times this season and they are a real threat. Their 1-1 draw with bologna on sunday was unfortunate and they should have killed the game off earlier several times before bologna's 93rd min equaliser. I think diego is a fantastic player and returning to germany he will hopefully want to impress. DNB is prob better value but Munich can leak goals so im taking a chance on JUVENTUS win @ 3.80
  5. Re: Champions League 30th September Ac Milan v Zurich Pick Zurick +2 @ 2.20 Cant give much reasoning but milan have started poorly in serie A, last two games losing 1-0 at udinese and drawing 0-0 with bari at home. Also, italian teams often sit on a lead rather than continue to press. The 1.50 under 2.5 goals wasnt worth taking so see this as better value. ZURICH +2 @ 2.10
  6. Re: 4 fold system (help needed) note for anyone taking an interest, you can also apply the table and bet trebles. Just make as many traingles as possible.
  7. Re: 4 fold system (help needed) okay, ive posted it on a maths forum, hopefully the nxt stephen hawkins will solve it for me :D If i get a response or suddenly start seeing shapes and numbers in my mind ill post it up. fig
  8. Re: 4 fold system (help needed) I was hoping it was just me who found it complicated....small comfort that it isnt. I really hope someone can help me out with working against the risks/probability but....i suppose there over on the menza forum:lol If only Pythagoras was still alive...mmm.. Seriously, if anyone can offer any tips on just even how to approach working it out, i'd be grateful. EDIT- the application of placing the bets isnt complicated, you just give each team a number and place the slips accordingly. But whether the VALUE in terms of probability and risk holds up against say 6 folds from 16,7 folds from 16 or alternate systems is the complicated bit.
  9. System is to make all 4 fold squares and lines from below table You pick 16 teams and give them a number. teams 1 7 10 16 occur the least so should be your least fav selections. teams 5 8 9 12 occur the most and the system needs all to win and max one fail so these should be your most confident picks. ...........1.........................C ......2.......3..................B.....B ...4.....5......6.............B....A.....B 7....8.......9.....10.....C...A......A.....C ...11...12.....13...........B.....A.....B ......14.....15..................B.....B ..........16.........................C There are 9 squares and 10 lines SQUARES 1 3 5 2 2 5 4 8 4 8 7 11 3 6 5 9 5 9 8 12 8 12 11 14 6 10 9 13 9 13 12 15 12 15 14 16 LINES 1 3 6 10 2 5 9 13 4 8 12 15 7 11 14 16 1 2 4 7 3 5 8 11 6 9 12 14 10 13 15 16 1 5 12 16 7 8 9 10 Teams 1 7 10 16 occur 4 times Teams 2 3 4 6 11 13 14 15 occur 4 times Teams 5 8 9 12 occur 7 times You can eliminate lines 1 5 12 16 7 8 9 10 This will now make 17 bets not 19 but reduced C teams to 3 bets B teams remain at 4 bets A reduced to 6 bets INITIAL AIM OF THE SYSTEM Was to find a more progressive return plan than traditional 4 fold out of 16 bets. there are 2380 4 folds in 16 selections. If you get 4/5/6/7/8/9 correct you will not return much and be at a loss. But if you get 13/14/15/16 correct you will receive a huge payout. I wanted to reduce the overall payout for high hit ratio on selections and increase the payout for getting 60-70% correct (9-11 out of 16) PROBLEMS (need help solving or working out to then find alternate system) Team A's occur in 6/17 or 7/19 bets. The system blatantly requires the 4 A teams to win, but 35% of bets lost from one A team failure is too big and i'd like that amount to be more like 25% of bets. Every team has at least 4 teams it doesnt share a bet slip with. Im happy with that. But some teams tie themselves to others too much. For example team 5 (a A team) has the following other teams in its bets. Team 1= 2 bets Team 2 = 3 bets Team 3 = 3 bets Team 4 = 1 bet Team 6 = 1 bet Team 8 = 3 bets Team 9 = 3 bets Team 11 = 1 bet Team 12 = 2 bets Team 13 = 1 bet Team 16 = 1 bet Teams not tied to are = team 7 10 14 15 I think team 2/3/8/9 being in 3 bets the same as team 5 maybe too many out of 19 bets???? --------------------------------------------------------------- WORKING OUT RISK To be honest i really dont know where to start, when trying to work out the risk each team has. I'd like to calculate the risk of getting 8/16 selections correct but still not getting a payout. I'd also like to calculate the probability of getting only 6 selections correct but luckily hittin two payouts. If you get 4 or 5 you can only get max one payout. Hitting 5 needs a 6th correct to bring in a seperate square. I know that achieving 12/16 (75%) correct will return a minimum of 5-8 4 folds providing you have successfully won all 4 A bets (numbers 5 8 9 12). STAKING PLAN At average odds of 1.80 per team, each 4 fold will return 10.50 for every £1. returning one 4 fold will make a loss of 45% 2 4 folds will profit 15% Ideally the closer your average 4 fold return is to 16/1 the better. Which is 2.00 average team. To add alittle extra security when staking on the 4 fold that includes the 4 A teams 5 8 9 12 This bet should profit total stake on system (other 16/18bets). Again though, it adds extra emphasise on the A selections being correct. ___________________________________________________ Conclusion I think the system could have potential but its overly reliant on the A teams and perhaps too many teams are tied in with each other which doesnt spread the risk. If 1 A team fails that leaves 62-65% of bets left. If 2 A teams fail that leaves only 30-33% of bets left and unless luck is with you, no pay out. (i'd like to work out that probability) It seems like a good system to use when your confident of your selections and/or you can add teams to it your betting on over a full weekend or even week. It does need a minimum of 9/10 bets correct to LIKELY return a 4 fold or 2. COMPARED TO SINGLES At 1.80 and flat staking you would need 10.5 selection correct to breakeven. Although you obviously get money back for each win so reduce risk of losing all stake. With this system 10.5 correct picks im certain would win x 4 folds and yield profit. If all or min of 3 As were won, i beleive it should win 3-4 4 folds. Again,id like to calculate this probability. Ive explained it best i can. Any input much appreciated. If the system once probability is calculated, still holds up against probability of other systems i will start a new thread to track picks and financials. Cheers FIG :ok
  10. Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 After convincing myself bout spurs put a treble on spurs standard liege man city 8/1
  11. Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 UEFA CUP QUALIFICATION 5th placed league team carling cup winners OR 6th placed league team (if winners already in europe via league) FA CUP winners OR runners up (if winners already qualified for europe via league) Intertoto place just so everyone clear!
  12. Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 Add to that mike they got to try and prioritise staying in the premier league too! and harry got a lot of on juggle this next few months!!! like i say, i would have tried to get through this round and then after knowing sundays result put less emphasise on this seasons uefa cup if beat man utd. But then again, harry must think he can turn man u over sunday?
  13. Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 No let me clarify. If spurs WIN on sunday they WILL qualify for uefa cup next season. If however they lose, they will not get a place even though man utd have qualified for europe via league. It will go to the 6th placed league team. I believe spurs are putting all their eggs in one basket thinking they will win on sunday and as such qualify for europe. Therefore surely they would be best to give tonight a good go and try and qualify in case they do lose on sunday. If they win sunday then thats surely the time to forget the uefa cup for this year and focus on the league.
  14. Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 ye, definatly correct mike, runners up in carling cup dont qualify if winners already done so via league, it goes to league. iTs the fa cup where the runner up has a chance. like i say, think there abit of value in spurs considering all factors shakter can lose youth/fringe may want to impress keep options open til after sunday at least and so on..
  15. Re: Uefa Cup 26/2/2009 Just done abit of googlin and i seems i was right. The carling cup runners up do NOT qualify for europe, the place goes to 6th place in the league. The FA cup runners up however do get a place in europe if the winners of fa cup have already qualified for europe via league. as i posted earlier, i think spurs were silly to put so much on sundays game. It reality i think tonight isnt as meaningless as people think and a spurs win, based on reasoning from post earlier looking a shrewd bet at 2.50 especially as shakter can afford to lose 1-0 2-1 3-1 and still qualify. gonna put small stakes on spurs win smaller stakes on spurs 2-0 BOL:hope
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