Gambling Gorilla
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Posts posted by Gambling Gorilla
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Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel Removed nonsense post - apologies for the repeated mistakes and ruining your thread!
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Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel Removed nonsense post
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Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel Removed nonsense post
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Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy It might be worth seeing if the pre-match over/under 2.5 goals odds vary in the data you're looking at too. Over the years, they've meddled with the balls so that they move more, etc. which could explain the higher number of goals in the more recent seasons.
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Re: Systematic Selections :: SEASON OVER :: 489 Selections :: +20.71pts :: 4.24% Yiel Hi Matthew, Well done on another successful season. Since your model's creating a predicted (percentage) outcome, have you tried a different staking method (i.e. Kelly Criterion) to see if you can maximise your profits? I'd be interested how you'd have performed, starting back in 2000 with a full, half and quarter kelly staking strategy if this is something you can calculate easily?
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Re: Sample size and age of data The way I've got around a team's monopoly is to incluude the bookies odds into my analysis (and therefore digging out the value. So whereas Man U would've been odds-on in most games, against the bigger clubs they're not any more. By combining the bookies odds with my own strength ratings is where I can find "sweet spots" in the betting. What's (unsurprisingly) obvoius is that the bookies are extremely good at setting their odds!!! My concern is that I've "engineered" the sweet spots. If taking out the margin of error calculated above compensates for that, then I'm onto a good thing!
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Re: Sample size and age of data Thanks for asking this question Paparazzo as I was about to ask exactly the same one! I'm getting my data from the same place and am using my own method for assessing a team's strength. In some scenarios, I am seeing a strong yield (over 30%) running my data back to 2001 but this is from a limited number of bets (100 - 200). Using the formula above, my margin of error's between 7% and 10% - does this mean that to check whether I'm on to something, I should turn 10% of my wins into losses and see if the numbers still stack up?
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Re: Southampton v Reading > Sat 8th December As a Reading fan, this is certainly a winnable game. The fact that Southampton will have a go at us will suit us nicely. They did exactly the same thing last season, having over 20 shots to our 4. We won 3-1. However, we've done just about enough in every game to lose by one goal. Our decent performance against Man U (a game we never expected to get anything from) would have been nice against Villa (a game we could have got something from). For whatever reason, we play just badly enough to lose. I'd avoid this one but if you do have a nibble, both teams to score would be my bet.
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Re: 10pts system for horses
Not even that a lot of the time especially if the team's expected to win. Expect nearer 6-7's I'd have thought.chelsea have recored 2-0 wins 5 times this season in all comp's that would be a nice 'build up' till pay day. whats odds on 2-0 roughly?10-12's. -
Re: is there anything like this? What I think he means is that if the bet wins, you pay him. If it loses, you don't pay him. But if it loses, you've lost what you bet so you lose.
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Re: Arbing Q & A's Good luck to you but like most here, I think arbing's a dodgy business. I (like yourself have a degree in maths and love gambling) recently looked at backing with bookies and laying with betfair for a guaranteed profit (after commission). All was going well until one match in Greece was postponed... by 1 day. My bets with some bookies got refunded yet my lay with betfair stood. I absolutely shat my pants as I'd layed an odds on favourite. After getting in touch with betfair, they reopened the book and I backed for a small guaranteed loss. Though it was much better than the loss I was anticipating. Since then, I've decided to avoid such systems cos it would really hurt to get stung in this way again. (Happy ending though - one of the bookies which cancelled the backing bet paid out the next day despite the bet being declared void so I did actually make a huge unexpected profit but the lesson was learnt all the same!) Hope this makes sense. Good luck to you though. It can be done but I personally think it's pretty scary stuff. Oh, also had an instance where a bookie suspended all betting after the event was on my coupon at which point they dramatically shortened the odds. A lay was in place (a much better one thank God). There are safer strategies (which hopefully nobody else will ever figure out as it'll ruin it for me!) but as I say, good luck!
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Re: Simple System
Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 101.45 Number of bets: 9 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 3 Strike rate: 67% Yield: 16% Profit/Loss: +1.45West Ham v. Crewe - 1.79 - :( -
Re: Simple System Let's hope there's some long-term profit in this and it's not just a lucky start! 15th March West Ham v. Crewe - 1.79
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Re: Simple System
At the end of the first weekend we have the following: Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 102.45 Total staked: 8 Number of bets: 8 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 75% Yield: 30.63% Profit/Loss: +2.4513th March Dundee v. Rangers - 1.65 - :( Cercle Brugge v. Anderlecht - 1.65 - :D -
Re: Simple System An extra bet for the weekend (over 2.5 goals) now that I've got gamebookers working... 13th March Cercle Brugge v. Anderlecht - 1.65
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Re: Simple System
An encouraging start today. Shame there aren't more odds available for the over/under 2.5, Interwetten normally oblige. If anybody knows where I can get league tables and team's results for all leagues which are updated regularly also, I'll see how other leagues fair. All level stakes. Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 102.8 Total staked: 6 Number of bets: 6 Winning bets: 5 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 83% Yield: 47% Profit/Loss: +2.8 Spreadman - I considered the under and it is possible that something similar could work. We'll see how this one goes first though.12th March Crewe v. Sunderland - 1.95 - :( Stockport v. Colchester - 1.70 - :D Notts County v. Kidderminster - 1.80 - :D Scarborough v. Leigh RMI - 1.70 - :D Stranrear v. Arbroath - No Odds - :D East Stirling v. Cowdenbeath - No odds - :D Hansa Rostock v. Bochum - 1.80 - :D Freiburg v. Nurnberg - 1.80 - :D -
Good evening all. I'd like to paper trail a simple system which looks at the team in each league which has conceeded the highest number of goals and betting on their next game to be over 2.5 goals. Nice and simple. Tempted to look at home and away records and deal with each seperately depending upon whether a team's playing home or away but because I'm lazy, I'm not going to. Will look at main European leagues though depending upon what odds are available and how easy the stats are to access, other leagues may be included. One extra rule is to avoid leagues where there a few goals and only start doing this after the first 10 matches (arbitrary number, could be anything. 10s nice and round though). For example, in France, Caen are currently the chosen team but only 8 of 18 games (11th game onwards) have been over so required odds are too high. Also, because I'm lazy, I'm using gamebookers' odds it is likely that any returns could easily be improved upon with a bit of shopping around. Gamebookers not working so whatever I can find on oddschecker I will use. Quite irritating. Where oddschecker has nothiing, I'll use interwetten who's odds are rubbish but it'll give an indications as to whether this'll work or not. If anybody fancies doing some past analysis I'll be interested to see it! So, on to this weekend: 12th March Crewe v. Sunderland - 1.95 Stockport v. Colchester - 1.70 Notts County v. Kidderminster - 1.80 Scarborough v. Leigh RMI - 1.70 Stranrear v. Arbroath - East Stirling v. Cowdenbeath - Any Help? Hansa Rostock v. Bochum - 1.80 Freiburg v. Nurnberg - 1.80 13th March Dundee v. Rangers - 1.65 All level stakes. Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 100 Total staked: 0 Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: N/A Yield: N/A Profit/Loss: 0
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Re: "How To Earn A Living From Football Betting"... Long time reader, first time poster :D You get quite a few of these things on ebay and sometimes by reading all their feedback people say what the system is. One which seems to appear quite a lot is betting on 3 away teams which are odds on in a trixie. Not all of them will be s*** though there are so many that will be that it's best to avoid them all!
progressive betting on tennis? and being banned for it?
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
I'd recommend researching Martingale betting before investing too heavily on this strategy if you haven't done so already.
Getting banned by bookmakers is very much dependant upon which bookmaker you're betting with. I've been banned from Coral for winning small stakes bets (just £1) on correct score set betting (Serena Williams) and Torquay to win (and they did so in injury time). The 1st thing that's likely to happen is that you'll get an email letting you know that "you're no longer eligible for our offers" (which won't stop them constantly emailing you with offers). At this point, you'll know your days are numbered.